My full podcast for this week’s slate of games is here. I go into some thoughts on Ray Rice, 9/11 and of course, my thoughts on the betting lines this week.
So after going 4-3-1 in Week 1, let’s get into my picks in Week 2…
The first game I want to talk about is Miami at Buffalo with Buffalo as the underdog at -1. I’ve gotta go with Buffalo for a couple reasons. First, Miami will be missing all of their starting linebackers, so I expect CJ Spiller and the ageless Fred Jackson to have a big day. I was very impressed with both teams last week, especially Miami’s defense, but I think the loss of all three linebackers will be too much to overcome against this rushing attack. I also think the Patriots were sorely missing their recently departed Logan Mankins in Week 1, I do expect Bill Belichick to right that ship very quickly. Second, Buffalo won both of their match ups last year, so on top of their linebackers being hurt and the fact that the game is in Buffalo, I like the Bills odds.
I also like the over in this week at 42.5. Miami put up points last week, as did the Bills, so this could be a good pick as well and it’s something I’m going with.
Pick: Buffalo +1, Over 42.5
The second line that I like is the over in the Dallas at Tennessee game at 49.5. Considering the way the Titans put up points against a good Chiefs defense, I think they’ll make a killing against what many regard as the worst defense in the NFL. I think Tony Romo and the boys have a bounce back game this week after a rough Week 1 and this game ends up in the thirties.
Pick: Over 49.5
Next, I like New Orleans at Cleveland with the Saints giving -6.5. I see the Saints beating up on the Browns to put the loss to the Falcons behind them. Brandin Cooks did exactly what I said he would, he went off. The Saints are excited about their new first round “toy,” and trust me, that’s what coaches look at these short, speedy receivers, Sean Payton had the same level of excitement on Draft Day this year that you had when you got your first Playstation, “THINK OF ALL THE EXCITING THINGS WE CAN DO!”
The Browns are missing Ben Tate, Jordan Cameron, and, still, Josh Gordon as he will be out for nine more games, so I really don’t see them hanging with the Saints. Hopefully we see Johnny Manziel in for a little bit, so I can get all kinds of fired up! #JFF
Pick: New Orleans -6.5
Whoa, Matt Ryan is trying to get up into that elite conversation again. Last week’s assault of a good Saints defense by Matt Ryan and his quartet of receivers with 65+ yards was shocking. I knew it’d be a high scoring game, but the Falcons offense was a thing of beauty that I didn’t expect. I love over 48.5 in the Atlanta at Cincinnati game. I know the Bengals have a great defense, but so do the Saints and Matt Ryan had no problem putting 37 up against them. I think this is a shootout in the same manner that Week 1 was for the Falcons, so pick the over and cheer for points!
Pick: Over 48.5
I like St. Louis at Tampa Bay with the Bucs giving five points to a team that looked clueless against the Vikings. With their defensive captain Chris Long going into surgery this week, right after losing their quarterback, I don’t see the Rams stopping the slide they’re on. I don’t think the Bucs are a playoff team like some do, but I do think they’re going to be a .500 team.
Pick: Tampa Bay -5
Next, I’ve got an underdog covering in the New York Jets at Green Bay Packers game with the Jets getting 8.5. I don’t know if the Jets will beat the Pack at home, but I really like what I saw out of the Jets last week and they played with a similar formula to what ran over the Packers up in Seattle. The Packers are reeling from the loss of BJ Raji and the Jets are going to run all over them like they did at home against Oakland. Ruth’s Chris Backfield looks absolutely dynamite, Ivory’s running with power, Johnson’s running with speed and it’s opening up the offense for the pass game. Geno Smith looked good, he made some mistakes, but he even ran the ball intelligently, taking what he could get and racking up 38 yards on the ground.
The Jets also have one of the best front sevens in the league this year and they could replicate the pressure caused by Seattle in holding the potent Packers to only 269 yards on offense. Like I said, I really don’t know if they can beat the Pack at home, but they’ve got the tools to do it.
Pick: New York Jets +8.5
I haven’t decided on anything in the Monday Night game, so I might be back on Monday with a choice, but here’s what we’ve got for now.
See you sometime this week as I’m finishing up my piece on the brand management and business services that agents must provide their players with.
Total Human Optimization: Onnit