So, I’ve improved to 9-10-1 this year in my picks, but it feels like .500 because the Jets game against the Raiders felt like a blowout, not a 5-point push.

Anyway, on to tonight’s pick…

I’m enticed by the over tonight at 47 points. Vincent Jackson GOES OFF against the Falcons and I think the Bucs do well tonight against a bad defense on a fast surface. I do think the Falcons win this game because their offense will be too good for the Bucs defense, so I think the over is safe in this situation because of my initial reaction to this point total: the Falcons offense is great, but their defense is horrible. Their defense has given up 472 yards a game and I think their offense is better than what we saw last week against the Bengals.

After last week, I was reminded that I don’t like to bet on Thursday Night games, but I feel good about this one. I love what we saw out of Matt Ryan and the offense at home last week and I think we’ll see it again this week. I see this one as a blowout, with the Falcons winning with a score like 35-21.

OVER: 47