Zach Ertz: Expected Contract Value & Expected Cap Numbers

Zach Ertz
Stated Value: $43,638,527
YearSalaryExpected OutcomeExpected ValueAdjustment
201699.6%$9,138,527
201797.6%$4,000,000
2018$8,000,00074.2%$5,933,458
2019$7,500,00060.0%$4,502,508
2020$7,250,00042.6%$3,085,812
2021$7,750,00030.9%$2,392,200
Subtotal$15,913,977$13,138,527
Expected Contract Value:$29,052,504 (67%)
 
Zach Ertz
YearCap NumberProbabilityDead MoneyProbabilityExpected Cap Number
2016$3,311,56399.6%$13,711,5630.4%$3,353,163
2017$5,600,00097.6%$10,400,0002.4%$5,715,200
2018$9,600,00074.2%$4,800,00025.8%$8,361,600
2019$9,100,00060.0%$3,200,00040.0%$6,740,000
2020$8,850,00042.6%$1,600,00057.4%$4,688,500
2021$7,750,00030.9%$069.1%$2,394,750
Total:   $31,253,213

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”


Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a junior at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.