The Potential Pay Raises From 2021 Pro Bowl Honors

With voting for the Pro Bowl in its prime, and a preliminary list of leaders from the fan votes released by the NFL, here is your annual guide toward how you, as a fan (or even players, if they just so happen to read this) can maximize your Pro Bowl vote to help top players in the league earn pay raises via mechanisms in the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement.

There are two situations in the CBA where an original ballot (not as an alternate) Pro Bowl honor could result in a raise in salary:

  • Article 7, Section 4(e)(iv) creates a tier of Proven Performance Escalator that can raise the salary of a player drafted outside of the first round to the value of the 2nd round restricted free agent tender.
  • Article 7, Section 7(g)(iii-iv) calls for fifth year options on first round rookie contracts to equate to the transition tag if named to a Pro Bowl once in their first three seasons, and to the franchise tag for two or three.

Here are some of the players that could see notable raises in their salaries should they earn an original ballot Pro Bowl, grouped by conference and position. All numbers used are OTC’s estimates for the fifth year options for the 2019 first round picks, and for the franchise, transition, and RFA tenders. To maximize strategic voting, prioritize on your ballot players from the 2019 rookie class, as this will be last time they are eligible for the following pay raises.

AFC Quarterback

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Joe BurrowFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$4M-$7M
Justin HerbertFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$4M-$7M

Burrow and Herbert are 11th and 4th in passing yards, 8th and 5th in touchdowns, and 9th and 15th in passer rating. They will have to fend off the typical clubhouse leaders in their conference in Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson in order to work on these pay raises. But a Pro Bowl bid now for Burrow and Herbert is necessary if they want to reach the highest fifth year options possible, as that requires two Pro Bowl honors before their third seasons are over.

NFC Quarterback

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Kyler MurrayFifth Year Option$25,641,000$28,583,000$2,942,000

Murray was named to the Pro Bowl last season, securing at least a transition tag amount for his fifth year option that should be a raise of over $4 million. A Pro Bowl bid this season likely boosts that salary another $3 million higher. The league leader in passer rating, Murray’s likely competitors for this spot will be Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, and Dak Prescott.

AFC Running Back

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Josh JacobsFifth Year Option$10,140,000$12,523,000$2,383,000
Jonathan TaylorProven Performance Escalator$1,677,613~$4,195,000~$2,517,387
Najee HarrisFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$5M-7M

Taylor is the leaguewide leader in Pro Bowl fan votes at this moment, and his election feels imminent. This is especially important for Taylor, because as a running back who naturally plays fewer snaps than players at other positions, Taylor is currently ineligible for any PPE raise. A Pro Bowl bid would shoot him all the way to the top PPE tier, and keep him there for good.

Jacobs surprised most by securing a Pro Bowl bid last season, and while it’s highly unlikely he’ll do so again, he’s included for completion purposes at one last shot at another pay raise. As a rookie, Harris, 8th in rushing yards, has some extra time to get to the Pro Bowl, but if he gets named now, in a season when Derrick Henry is likely out for the remainder of the season, he has a better chance to get that franchise tag raise that could very well be as high as a $7 million difference.

NFC Running Back

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Antonio GibsonProven Performance Escalator$2,721,000 ~$4,195,000~$1,474,000

Gibson has quietly put together a nice season in DC, ranking 7th in rushing yards leaguewide. He’ll have to fend off bigger names like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Leonard Fournette to get this pay raise. As part of the 2020 rookie class, Gibson will have another shot next season if he doesn’t get it now.

AFC Wide Receiver

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Diontae JohnsonProven Performance Escalator$2,646,000$3,927,000$1,281,000
Michael Pittman, Jr.Proven Performance Escalator$2,971,000~$4,195,000~$1,224,000
Ja’Marr ChaseFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$4M-7M

Chase currently leads the fan vote, and getting named now will help his cause toward getting the maximum raise on his fifth year option. But I’ll flag two long shot PPE raise candidates in Johnson and Pittman, currently 5th and 6th among AFC receivers in yardage.

NFC Wide Receiver

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Terry McLaurinProven Performance Escalator$2,646,000$3,927,000$1,281,000

It’s pretty stunning that McLaurin has yet to make a Pro Bowl despite his contribution over the past three seasons. He’ll be a long shot this time around due to being 8th in receiving yardage in the NFC, but this is his last chance to get that hard earned raise.

NFC Tight End

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Kyle PittsFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$3M-$4M

Not much to say here: Pitts leads the fan voting at this position, and is living up to the hype as the 4th overall rookie this season. Pitts could be well on his way to easily securing that franchise tag raise by the time his 5th year option comes around.

AFC Tackle

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Rashawn SlaterFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$2M-$4M

For positions like the offensive line where traditional stats aren’t as helpful, I’ll use our OTC Valuation metric for some assistance. And by this metric, there is no other tackle ahead of this impressive rookie.

NFC Tackle

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Tristan WirfsFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$2M-$4M

By OTC valuation, Wirfs is the highest rated right tackle in the league, and is behind only Donovan Smith (his teammate) and Tyron Smith among NFC tackles.

AFC Guard

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Dalton RisnerProven Performance Escalator$2,646,000$3,927,000$1,281,000
Michael OnwenuProven Performance Escalator$2,971,000~$4,195,000~$1,224,000
Trey SmithProven Performance Escalator$3,374,000~$4,764,000~$1,390,000

This is Risner’s last chance to get a PPE raise, even if it’s daunting. Onwenu currently leads the league in OTC valuation, while Smith has been an impressive 6th round rookie that is typical from being coached by Andy Reid.

NFC Guard

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Chris LindstromFifth Year Option$12,745,000$14,997,000$2,252,000

Lindstrom ranks 5th among NFC guards in OTC valuation, and as a member of the 2019 rookie class, this is his last chance to secure a raise on his fifth year option

NFC Center

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Tyler BiadaszProven Performance Escalator$2,721,000~$4,195,000~$1,474,000

Biadasz leads the fan voting at this position, and the PPE raise would be higher than most other offensive linemen, as Biadasz currently is only at the lowest tier of achievement here due to low snaps in his rookie season.

AFC Defensive Tackle

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Jeffery SimmonsFifth Year Option$10,067,000$13,596,000$3,529,000
Christian WilkinsFifth Year Option$10,067,000$13,596,000$3,529,000

Simmons leads the fan voting at this position, and both he and Wilkins are members of the 2019 rookie class that grade out well in OTC valuation, ranking 1st and 3rd among AFC players the NFL considers defensive tackles.

NFC Defensive Tackle

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Dexter LawrenceFifth Year Option$10,067,000$13,596,000$3,529,000

Lawrence is another defensive tackle from the 2019 rookie class with one last shot at a fifth year option raise, though in his case he’ll be a longer shot to fend off the likes of dominant regulars like Aaron Donald, as well as his own teammate in Leonard Williams.

NFC Defensive End

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Nick BosaFifth Year Option$16,622,000$20,186,000$3,564,000
Brian BurnsFifth Year Option$10,289,000$16,622,000$6,333,000

Bosa leads the fan voting here, and should be a shoe-in to get this fifth year option raise. But it’s Burns, who is second only to Bosa in sacks among NFC players the NFL considers to be defensive ends, who could get a much more massive raise, due to not even playing enough snaps to qualify for the playtime boost in fifth year option pay.

AFC Outside Linebacker

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Josh AllenFifth Year Option$10,553,000$14,882,000$4,329,000

Allen does not have the sack totals to stand out, and he’ll have a daunting task to best big names like TJ Watt and Matt Judon, but his draft pedigree and his big showing against The Other Josh Allen shouldn’t rule him out for his last chance to get a significant raise.

AFC Inside Linebacker

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Bobby OkerekeProven Performance Escalator$2,396,000$3,927,000$1,531,000
Devin BushFifth Year Option$10,553,000$14,882,000$3,508,000
Patrick QueenFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$3.5M-$6M

Bush and Queen are first round picks that play for teams with high profile defenses that could benefit from a Pro Bowl honor–particularly Bush, who’s on his last chance. Okereke is a dark horse candidate that’s also on his last chance, and in his case he would get a higher PPE raise than others, as he’s currently only on the lowest level of such a raise.

NFC Inside Linebacker

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Devin WhiteFifth Year Option$11,374,000$14,882,000$3,508,000
Micah ParsonsFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$3.5M-$6M

White leads the fan vote at this position, while Parsons is a legitimate candidate for Defensive Rookie Of The Year. It would be better for White to get the honor over Parsons if it comes down to it, as this is White’s last chance at a raise.

AFC Free Safety

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Jeremy ChinnProven Performance Escalator$2,971,000 ~$4,195,000~$1,224,000

With most of the heavy hitters at this position (Justin Simmons, Kevin Byard, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Micah Hyde) in the AFC, perhaps that could open up an opportunity for Chinn on the NFC side. He’ll have another chance next season if he doesn’t get it now.

AFC Cornerback

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Patrick Surtain IIFifth Year OptionTBDTBD~$3M-$6M

Surtain had a dominant performance last week against the Chargers, intercepting Justin Herbert twice, and could be right along Parsons in the Defensive Rookie Of The Year conversation. Tre’Davious White going down for the season could end up cracking the door open for a rookie Pro Bowl bid alongside the likes of AFC veterans like Marlon Humphrey, JC Jackson, or Xavien Howard.

NFC Cornerback

PlayerSalary TypeCurrent SalaryPotential SalaryPotential Raise
Trevon DiggsProven Performance Escalator$2,971,000~$4,195,000 ~$1,224,000

Diggs leads the fan voting at this position, and has been a prominent defender for a prominent team in Dallas.