Building the Bronco Formula for 2016

I was going to write something about Von Miller this week, but I’m glad Jason did because it’s right in line with what I would have projected. I saw many on Twitter projecting him to be in the $120 million plus range, with other saying vague things like, “VON MILLER JUST GOT PAID!!!” I understand the reasoning behind why many would suggest Miller be in the $120 million range due to his incredible performance in the playoffs and the contract Ndamukong Suh just signed.

In Jason’s article, he did a great job of breaking down Suh and Calvin Johnson’s contract into the early money years and cash flows, so that Miller had something to project in terms of that, rather than shoot for that big, ESPN splash contract like theirs were. The goal is to maximize your earnings, so getting early money, having a contract with dead money hits that provide cap security for yourself, plus having a contracts that allows your team to compete help in all three of those categories.

Continue reading Building the Bronco Formula for 2016 »

Looking Ahead to Von Miller’s Upcoming Contract Negotiation

Von Miller had one of the more historic playoff runs you will ever see for a defender. Between the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl Miller recorded 5 sacks, two forced fumbles, one interception and topped it off by being named MVP of the Super Bowl. In Miller’s five seasons in the NFL he has been a devastating force whose ability to pressure the quarterback is arguably tops in the NFL. He has thrived in multiple defensive schemes and might be the most dangerous defensive player in the NFL. He is up for a new contract this year and will look to set the market for defensive players. We’ll examine some of the particulars that may go into his contract talks and see if we can come up with something that might be reasonable for both sides. Continue reading Looking Ahead to Von Miller’s Upcoming Contract Negotiation »

Von Miller Will Nearly Play For Free if Suspended 6 Games


I just read the latest report from Chris Mortensen that Von Miller may be suspended for six games rather than four games as everyone initially suspected.

We had already touched on the financial ramifications of a four game suspension, but the additional two games makes the season almost a complete wash for Miller from a financial perspective. If suspended for six games Miller will lose 6/17 of his base salary for the season and more importantly 6/17 of his signing bonus proration for the 2013 season, which is subject to the forfeiture provisions of the CBA.

Miller was to earn $2,284,125 this year in base salary. His signing bonus proration for the season was $3,443,250. If suspended for six games Miller will lose $806,162 of his salary for this season and will forfeit $1,215,265 of his signing bonus, which will need to be paid back to the team over time. His total lost wages will be $2,021,426.

For the remaining 11 weeks of the season Miller will be paid $1,477,963 in base salary. When you consider the size of his bonus forfeiture his true takehome this year may only be $262,699 for 11 games of work. Unlike forfeitures triggered by holding out of training camp or other unpermitted absences from the team, my understanding of the CBA is that any drug/PED related suspensions are automatically forfeited and that the teams do not have the ability to reduce or eliminate such forfeitures.


The Costs of Von Millers Potential Suspension


According to multiple sources LB Von Miller of the Broncos is in danger of being suspended for 4 games due to a violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy for PED’s. This is a very costly suspension for Miller if it occurs due to the relatively large salary and signing bonus received by the player in 2011. It is also possible that such a suspension will void Miller’s future guarantees, though with his level of play that is of no concern.

Just how much will it cost Miller?  The answer comes in two forms. First Miller will lose his salary for 4 weeks. Set to earn $2,284,125 this season, his suspension will cost him $537,441.20 in salary.  That’s a significant chunk of change, but the penalties grow even further.

Under the CBA, a drug/steroid suspension results in a proportionate loss of signing bonus money that was already paid to the player. Miller received a $13,773,000 signing bonus in 2011. $3,443,250 of that is attributed to this season and he stands to lose 4/17ths of that money as well. That adds up to $810,176.50. The Broncos will collect that by docking his pay when he returns to the active roster.

All told Miller will lose $1,347,618 in salary this season. Six weeks of his salary will go to paying back his signing bonus forfeiture, meaning he will actually earn just 7 weeks of game checks for 13 weeks of play. That is some major coin and why players need to be extremely careful with what supplements they use and how those supplements may affect their ability to earn a living. A second violation for Miller, if he is found guilty of this one,  would just mean more time on the sidelines and more paychecks missed.