Best & Worst Contracts 2014: Seattle Seahawks

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We finish our best and worst contract series with the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks

Best Contract: Max Unger

Max unger

I know this is going to be a complete rehash of last year’s post on Seattle but there is really no reason to change anything with this selection. Max Unger is one of the top centers in the NFL and one of the reasons the Seahawks offensive line continues to be a strength for the team.

Seattle has a tendency to jump high on certain players either with high value contracts or favorable contract structures. Unger did not get that. Rather than jumping up into the Nick Mangold/Ryan Kalil contract territory, which one may have expected, they signed Unger to a reasonable contract, one that only looks more reasonable in light of the Maurkice Pouncey and Alex Mack contracts. There were no outlandish guarantees as just his 2013 salary was fully guaranteed and at any point after that he could have potentially been released.

Unger’s contract, which was worth just under $25 million for 4 seasons, represented a 24% savings in annual value over Ryan Kalil’s contract with the Panthers. His $11.5 million in guarantees is less than Chris Myers of the Texans and Scott Wells of the Rams had at the time the contract was signed. The contract itself is also a well structured deal with no real peaks or valleys making the cap management job of such a player relatively worry free. His cap charges fluctuate from $5.6 to $6.1 million, though there is some room for small escalators to advance those numbers.

The contract figures are very manageable and with no spikes there is never a point where the Seahawks will be forced to renegotiate the terms of the contract for cap relief which has already happened multiple times with Kalil. This is the kind of deal that both sides should be happy with over the term of the contract especially if Unger continues to prove himself to be one of the best in the game. This is the type of solid veteran contract that allows the Seahawks to go out and take chances on some of the more questionable deals they have done over the years.

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Worst Contract: Percy Harvin

Percy Harvin

There are 11 receivers in the NFL who have contracts worth over $8.5 million a season. Of those 11 just one failed to produce a 1,000 yard season before signing a new contract. That one player is Percy Harvin, whose contract is worth a whopping $12.849 million a season.

There is almost no justification in the entire decision making process as it related to Harvin. Harvin was unhappy with the Minnesota Vikings and wanted out of Minnesota unless he received a new contract. Harvin had minimal leverage. He was coming off another injury filled season that saw him appear in just 9 games. Harvin was very productive in those games, but teams are always cautious with players who seem to miss at least a game each season.

Seattle came in and threw a number 1 draft pick at the Vikings to take Harvin. Believing that Harvin’s production was hurt by the Vikings lack of offense they assumed he would perform much better in Seattle. They put a big value on the fact that Harvin was kind of a jack of all trades that was a very good kick returner and could also run the football.  Kind of like what the Bears did with Devin Hester, except at 2.5 times the cost.

The team bought in at huge dollars and gave themselves no protection. There are no roster bonuses tied to health, despite the fact that Harvin was recently injured and you could pencil him in  for at least one missed game a season and a few late week decisions. Harvin received a $12 million signing bonus that likely protects his roster spot through 2015.

As a receiver Harvin has no additional negotiating leverage than Victor Cruz of the Giants and was statistically inferior to Cruz. Cruz had to settle for $8.6 million a year and a $9.5 million signing bonus. In fact of all the players who earn over $7 million a season Harvin is just one of three players to have not produced a 1,000 receiving yard season before signing. The other two were Pierre Garcon ($8.5M) and Mike Williams ($7.924M).  Harvin should have been paid in that $8-$9 million a year range, but somehow he made Mike Wallace’s $12 million a season contract look a bit less comical.

Harvin missed all but one game in the 2013 regular season, before making his return in the playoffs. He had three big plays in the Super Bowl, including a kick return for a touchdown. The Seahawks need to see a lot more of that to justify the contract that the signed with Harvin.

2013’s Best and Worst Seahawks Contracts:

2013 Best Contract: Max Unger (See above)

2013 Worst Contract: Zach Miller (Reworked contract to remain on team)

Click Here to Check out OTC’s other Best and Worst Contracts from around the NFL!

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Marshawn Lynch Reworks Contract with Seahawks

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According to NFL.com, the Seahawks have agreed to modify running back Marshawn Lynch’s contract in return for him ending his holdout and returning to training camp. Per the report the Seahawks have agreed to convert $500,000 in gameday roster bonuses, $500,000 in incentives, and $500,000 in 2015 base salary into Lynch’s 2014 base salary. The new contract will increase Lynch’s 2014 cap charge and cash salary by $1 million.

Though this is not the big raise that Jamaal Charles received from the Kansas City Chiefs, it was likely the best case scenario for Lynch, who had almost no leverage in the situation. Charles had been woefully underpaid and is the centerpiece of the Chiefs offense and projects to be in that role for at least one more season. Lynch has been paid well and is likely going to be phased out of Seattle over the next season.

I’ve said for some time that Lynch holds more importance for the Seahawks early in the season moreso than late in the year and I think this compromise indicates that they feel the same way. The Seahawks have a stable of potential replacements for Lynch, but it often takes time to work such players in to the offense in an ffective manner. Lynch should carry the workload early in the year while everyone else gets their feet wet in the system. Seattle easily could have held firm, continued to fine Lynch and further enforce forfeiture clauses in his contract, but instead they agreed to a slight raise.

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While it is being widely reported (and is technically true) that this deal means no new money for Lynch, from a practical standpoint this is an additional $1 million for the player. The $500,000 incentive was only going to be earned if Lynch ran for 1,500 yards in 2014, something Lynch has only done once in his career. Considering his workload is expected to be reduced the odds of earning that incentive was next to nothing. It is now part of his base pay.  Lynch should still be scheduled to earn $7 million next year at an $8.5 million cap charge, which is not a safe spot for any aging running back to be. Lynch is still a strong candidate for release in 2015 so any money being moved from that season to this one is effectively a raise for him.

So he gained something with the hold out, a fact that may not make many NFL owners and General Managers very happy.

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Hard to Compare Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles

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While we already have discussed the Marshawn Lynch contract on the site in the past I thought in light of his holdout that we could use this as an opportunity to look at certain distinctions between contract situations. On it’s face the immediate reaction to Lynch holding out is that Jamaal Charles got a raise and thus the Seahawks should follow the pattern to give Lynch what he deserves. However, the two contract situations are very different.

Charles was underpaid during the term of his agreement. Based on his production at the time of signing (which was more or less near the end of the 2010 season) the Chiefs got a tremendous bargain. The fact that he produced at an even higher level in the future made it even more of a bargain. For the most part Charles was giving the Chiefs $10 million a year production at 55% of the cost.

Lynch was paid very well upon signing his contract in 2012. The Seahawks follow a different contract model than many other teams. Many of their contracts appear to be very forward looking rather than using the past as a guide for future performance.  Whether it was Percy Harvin, Zach Miller, Sidney Rice, or a number of other players on their team, they often try to identify the future benefits they will realize once the player is fully immersed in their system. Lynch is one of those players.

Lynch began his career in Buffalo and fell out of favor in 2009. During the 2010 season he was traded to the Seahawks and had a relatively lackluster run averaging 3.5 yards per carry and producing 573 yards in 12 games. Lynch would have a much better season in 2011 running for 1,200 yards on a 4.2 YPC as he looked for a contract in free agency.

I like to use a matrix on valuing contracts (and there are plenty of other ways to do this) where we use a weighted average of three years of stats to help identify a range of pay. I usually split the numbers 50/35/15.  Lynch signed in the same offseason as many other players. I included Charles in the list as comparison even though he signed in 2010. Here were the numbers leading into the contracts signed by the player:

PlayerAgeAttYdsYPCTDRecYdsYFSYPT
Rice25291.11309.94.508.871.8651.91961.85.41
Foster26261.61216.24.6511.150.8533.91750.05.60
Charles25191.61179.16.165.040.6378.81557.86.71
McCoy24232.21128.14.8611.657.3410.91539.05.32
Forte27223.21012.04.544.252.4507.11519.15.51
Lynch26231.2927.54.018.425.9183.61111.14.32
Stewart25166.5820.04.934.229.0263.41083.45.54

In terms of production Lynch was near the bottom, only better than Jonathan Stewart. In terms of per play performance Lynch was at the bottom of the list and was also one of just two players to be a non-factor in the passing game.

One of the ways we can break down the valuation on the contract is by looking at the annual value and the three year contract average value per rushing yard and yard from scrimmage. This tells us what the player would have cost, in an average year, per yard of production.

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Dollar per yardDollar per yard

dollar per total yard

So when you look at Lynch what you see is a player who was compensated, at the very least, fairly over the terms of his original contract. On an annual basis he was more or less compensated at the top of the position (discounting Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson’s outlier deals). That was balanced out somewhat by the cash flows of the contract which were steady rather than frontloaded like Rice, Foster, and McCoy, but it was still a contract that called for a high level of salary based on what he had done before. Due to the lack of expected receiving production he would likely have been a player that a team would have required a partner for passing downs.

As things turned out the Seahawks were correct in their projections and Lynch was worth the risk, but it was one of the better player contracts in the NFL. He was also guaranteed $17 million right from the start, higher than all but two players on this list, both of whom signed longer contracts.

That’s why it is hard to compare the situation of the Charles and  Lynch and expect the same results, even just on the principle of “fairness”.  Charles was the most underpaid of the group. If the Seahawks took an optimistic eye with Lynch, then the Chiefs took a super pessimistic one with Charles. Even if we factor in Charles’ new money ($5 million) into the deal, he would simply come up to the Forte/Rice levels on annual value per run yard and still be the lowest paid using total yards from scrimmage as a metric.

While its understandable that Lynch is holding out, Charles was far more deserving of the raise he received. In Lynch’s case, his improved performance was built into the contract he signed in 2012. We’ll see if Seattle budges, but this is a spot where the fans may not be on the player’s side

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Why Marshawn Lynch Should Look for a New Contract

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With the news coming out that Marshawn Lynch of the Seattle Seahawks is unhappy with his contract I thought we should look at what is likely going to drive a holdout for him and why he needs to do this now if he wants to maximize his job security.

I do think it is worth noting that the Seahawks took a huge chance when they signed Lynch to a $7.5 million a year contract in 2011. Lynch had come off more than a few non-descript seasons in Buffalo and a half year in Seattle. Many teams would have pushed for a much lower value based on his history but the Seahawks have been about taking chances in recent years and believed strongly in his talent giving him $17 million fully guaranteed in the contract. Their gamble clearly paid off but with the guarantees gone and the likelihood of diminishing importance Lynch is ready for a new contract.

The NFL is always about changing landscapes. Coaches change. Schemes change. Young players mature and veteran players begin to decline. One can not diminish the impact that Lynch has had on the Seahawks offense the last three years- he has been the steady driving force that allows the team to pound the ball offensively and give the defense the rest and margin for error they need.

But that was the past and this is going to soon become someone else’s football team. QB Russell Wilson is about to make the turn from underpaid rookie to gigantic salaried veteran in 2015. He is the future of the team and their focus from a contractual standpoint next season. The team expects to have WR Percy Harvin, making nearly $13 million a year, healthy for the foreseeable future. Doug Baldwin is now signed for a few more seasons while the team spent a high draft pick on another wideout in Paul Richardson. The Seahawks also have a stable of young running backs that are expected to take more of the workload this year.

You don’t have to be a genius to see the writing on the wall. The offense is going to further morph over the next few years and Lynch will be left with a termination notice informing him that he is no longer a member of the Seahawks. But at least for 2014 there are still some questions for Seattle. Harvin has to prove he can be healthy. Richardson has to prove he can play. The young backs need to prove they can be effective in their role. Going into September Lynch will have a vital role for the team, but leaving November he likely won’t.  So it makes sense for Lynch to make a stand now while he still may have some leverage due to his role on the team.

If Lynch is forced to play the season out he will be 29 next season when odds are he will be released or be asked to restructure his contract. He is now entering the phase of his career where we do not look back and compare him to Adrian Peterson in 2011 or LeSean McCoy in 2012 when determining a likely value. Those players were younger when they signed. We now move up the ladder and examine the group of players who signed contracts when they were close to their 30’s at the front end of the deal.

Here are the three year numbers for those players when they signed and what Lynch has done the prior three seasons as comparison.

PlayerAge at SigningCareer AttemptsAttemptsYardsYPA RECYardsYPR
Frank Gore28137167230094.4814112318.73
Chris Johnson29174281733674.121359957.37
Reggie Bush2896747922224.641127967.11
Fred Jackson3181762929234.6511610288.86
DeAngelo Williams30116941519344.66403839.58
Maurice Jones-Drew29180466328224.26997747.82
Steven Jackson30255284734284.0512610378.23
Marshawn Lynch28175390140514.50877248.32

Lynch has certainly been run into the ground the last three years and these numbers don’t even include the playoff numbers, something that was not an issue for the other players. On a per play basis Lynch is not doing anything extraordinary and his value lies in durability and the ability to perform at a strong level despite the heavy workload. But is that important to teams in todays NFL?  Only in very few cases as most teams focus on passing the ball more than running it.

If Lynch gets another season of work from Seattle his career use will scare many teams away. If he gets less work he’ll still be second on this list and teams may begin to question if he can be a workhorse back.  If he gets hurt then his durability advantage is gone. It’s a no win situation for him from a contractual standpoint. Everything will be worse for him after this season in terms of contract discussions.

Another important aspect of this is the ability to stay in a place where he is comfortable and found his greatest success. Most of these players were cast aways from their original teams. Johnson signed with the Jets. Bush went to Detroit. Jones-Drew signed with the Raiders. Jackson ended up in Atlanta. Williams contract was actually a renegotiated deal where the team gave him the “pay cut or be cut” ultimatum.

In general free agency or the possibility of free agency has not really been that kind to these players. Here are the contract terms signed by the group:

PlayerAgeYearTotalAPYFull Guarantee
Frank Gore283$19,524,000$6,508,000$0
Fred Jackson312$8,700,000$4,350,000$3,000,000
Chris Johnson292$8,000,000$4,000,000$3,000,000
Reggie Bush284$16,000,000$4,000,000$4,000,000
Steven Jackson303$12,000,000$4,000,000$4,000,000
DeAngelo Williams303$10,000,000$3,333,333$4,000,000
Maurice Jones-Drew293$7,500,000$2,500,000$1,200,000

These are not the kind of contracts that are going to be big money movers in the NFL. Gore is the only player who got above $4.5 million a year and to get that he received no guarantees in his contract. This is likely what is staring Lynch in the face if he can’t get a new deal out of Seattle right now. Gore’s contract will also not exist next season taking the highest valued deal (and comparable rival player) off the board for future discussions making any higher contract even more difficult to attain. While Seattle is known to push the prices I doubt they would go far beyond the parameters of what is going on with this group.  For Lynch that likely makes this holdout more about trying to get some money now rather than later. Lynch is set to earn $5 million this season in base compensation and another $500,000 if he is healthy for 16 games. Next year that number jumps to $7.5 million.

The $5 million number would essentially be the guaranteed portion/first year cash of any contract he would wind up signing so what we are looking at here is either an opportunity to try to slightly increase the cash to even out 2014 and 2015’s earnings or tweaking the contract to contain more favorable terms such converting an incentivized roster bonus to a March roster bonus.

Right now cutting Lynch in 2015 will only cost the Seahawks $1.5 million against the salary cap. If, however, Lynch signs a three year extension that contains a $4 million signing bonus and $1.5 million base salary for this year then that number jumps to $4.7 million in 2015.  If he can get a small raise for the year and get that bonus to $5 million then he is looking at $5.5 million in what I like to call “dead money protection”. Even without the guarantee it probably locks in the 2015 salary.

Such a move would likely maximize his earnings for the next two years and keep him in the city where he may enjoy playing the most. But this move is only likely to happen this year. If he waits until next year where he shows diminished importance he is probably going to get similar treatment to overused players like MJD and Jackson in free agency. Jackson’s failure in Atlanta will be a warning flag that, rightly or wrongly, will be applied to Lynch and make it difficult for Lynch to even get to that level.  So this is his best and maybe only opportunity to safeguard his future.

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Thoughts on the Richard Sherman Extension and the Seahawks

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Today Richard Sherman himself reported that he signed a new contract with the Seattle Seahawks that would keep him in Seattle through 2018. It’s a huge contract, worth $14 million a season, with up to $40 million in guaranteed salary. Thanks to former agent and terrific cap columnist Joel Corry we have the breakdown of the cash flows of the contract which gives us the ability to look at how good a deal this is.

For Sherman this is a great contract. Sherman had little leverage this year to gain an extension and was scheduled to earn just $1.431 million. To make matters worse the cornerback market completely shrunk over the last two seasons with the $16 million Darrelle Revis contract quickly evaporating after just one season and no new players being signed for $10 million a season. Many teams would play hardball in that situation with a non-QB, even if a great player, but Seattle did everything they could to keep their corner happy.

The most recent real contracts at the position that we can compare Sherman’s contract are the Darrelle Revis 2010 contract with the New York Jets and Nnamdi Asomugha 2011 contract with the Philadelphia Eagles. Asomugha signed as a pure free agent while Revis had his rookie contract in essence torn up to make the numbers work such that he would accept the contract. Just for kicks I’ll throw in the crazy three year deal that was signed by Asomugha with the Oakland Raiders in 2009. Here are the cash flows of the contracts:

Sherman cash flows 1

As you can see this is quite the accomplishment for Sherman. Over a three year period he will be able to nearly match, in terms of new money, the over the top figure the Raiders threw at Asomugha back in 2009. It was a complete head scratcher of a contract and for Sherman to reach to that level is quite impressive, especially if $40 million is truly guaranteed.

For Seattle we can take a slightly different approach to the contract. They knew they were going to do everything they could to keep Sherman in the fold next season. They could have franchised him to limit cash flows but sometimes that can be counter-productive to negotiations. While the $14 million a year new money figure is big to everyone, for Seattle they can view this as a five year contract that they can work in any manner they wish.  For this we can also look at Brandon Carr, the highest long term contract currently on the books.

Sherman Cash Flows 2

When looked at from the team perspective it’s a bit different. Sherman’s real cash flows trail Revis through three years and he essentially equals Revis’ four year take home salary. Sherman never surpasses Asomugha in this manner and actually trails Carr through two years and is only $2 million above after three. Essentially they can account for Sherman as an $11.5 million a year player by signing him to an extension now rather than playing the market next year when things could change if Patrick Peterson receives a huge extension from the Cardinals.

By making this move now Seattle is also doing some behind the scenes maneuvering which I think is very smart for how they run their organization. Many times the relationship between player representative and team can be very contentious. This was certainly the case in 2010 with Revis when Revis was prepared to sit out a season and was not in the best of shape when he returned. Not surprisingly Revis was dealt away in 2013. You always need to worry about those situations with players especially when the off the field contract talks work their way into on the field performance.

By locking up Sherman and, recently, Safety Earl Thomas to market setting extensions they are diffusing any situations that may arise with good players in the future such as Russell Wilson. Sherman is the first real big extension of the 2011 draft class. Peterson did not get a new deal from the Cardinals. Von Miller can’t get one with Denver. Colin Kaepernick hasn’t signed yet with the 49ers. Thomas is only the second of his draft class to get a big extension. Demaryius Thomas hasn’t received one yet. Jason Pierre-Paul doesn’t seem close to one. Seattle had no problems getting the deals done.

That goes a long way towards a player believing that as long as he maintains a high level of play he will be rewarded at any time with a new contract. It helps keep rookies motivated for their entire four year contract rather than picking and choosing when to make their marks. The team has been very generous with their own talent (in addition to those two they have signed C Max Unger and S Kam Chancellor to nice deals) and has made marks with outside players as well. Both Marshawn Lynch and Michael Bennett received solid deals from the team in recent years after showing good results on what might be termed bargain contracts prior to their new deals. They also paid quite a ransom for Percy Harvin.These moves can make Seattle a choice organization for many free agents.  It is not always about top dollar today with Seattle but the potential top dollar that may await tomorrow.

It is no surprise they are sending agents pamphlets about the benefits of undrafted free agents signing with the Seahawks. Seattle needs those players to now balance out these big contracts they are signing, but those players can benefit from playing in Seattle. The Cincinnati Bengals could have extended star LB Vontaze Burfict this year. Maybe they still will but as of now they have not. Burfict was a great UDFA find and the team controls his rights for almost no money in 2014, the high RFA tender in 2015, and a potential franchise tag in 2016. Who knows if that is the route they go, but based on what we have seen in Seattle they would throw their leverage out the window in order to get a deal done that makes both sides happy.  UDFA’s will take notice of the way Seattle does business and it may be better to sign there for $1,000 guaranteed than elsewhere for $10,000 guaranteed.

Is this model sustainable for Seattle.  Provided they draft well and attract the best UDFA’s it will be. If they whiff badly on a draft class they will begin to feel pressure from their cap. Currently our estimates have Seattle with about $109 million in cap charges committed to 2015 as we enter the draft. They will lose about $5 million to draft picks next year leaving them with $114 million in cap charges for the full roster. That should be enough room to get things done with QB Russell Wilson, who stands to make a fortune from the Seahawks if they continue to be a playoff team, and LT Russell Okung provided that the cap jumps to the $140 million range.

However that is not going to leave the team with a great deal of wiggle room to bring in more expensive outside talent, so they have to draft extremely well and fill the voids with the low cost talent until they recycle out the new veterans in 4 or 5 years and replace them with the players drafted or signed in 2014 through 2017. They should be able to continue to attract reasonably priced free agents as well to try to fit in for a year or two, with those players knowing that they could make a contractual splash in Seattle or elsewhere once their time is up in Seattle. But the draft is critical for the team.

It is definitely an interesting team to watch and to see if the model can lead to sustained success or leads to a crowded salary cap that gets old 3 or 4 years down the line with no reinforcements to keep any window open. But for now Seattle should be doing more than enough to keep most of their talent motivated to repeat and hopefully avoid the Super Bowl hangover that hits many teams.

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Free Agency Thoughts: Seattle Seahawks

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Key Additions: None

Key Re-Signings: Michael Bennett ($7.1M per year), Tony McDaniel ($2.9M), Steven Hauschka  ($2.9M), Anthony McCoy ($1.4M), Jeron Johnson ($1.4M), Tarvaris Jackson ($1.3M)

Key Losses: Golden Tate (Lions), Brandon Browner (Patriots), Breno Giacomini (Jets), Walter Thurmond (Giants), Paul McQuistan (Browns), Chris Maragos (Eagles)

Major Cuts: Chris Clemons ($7.5M cap savings), Sidney Rice ($7.3M), Red Bryant ($5.5M)

Free Agency Thoughts:

The Seahawks really did not go outside the organization this year to bring in anyone of note and instead faced the tough decisions about who to retain from their Super Bowl roster. The biggest decision came quickly when the Seahawks re-signed DE Michael Bennett to what will likely play out as a two year, $16 million deal. Bennett was incredibly important to the championship and would have been the most difficult player to replace either through the draft or via free agency. He was the one free agent they needed to bring back.

There are many that seemed down on the loss of Golden Tate, but if Percy Harvin is healthy they would have been overpaying significantly for Tate. Tate signed a contract worth over $6 million a season with the Lions and with Harvin already being a premier paid talent the Seahawks could not afford to add a top salaried second target to the mix. It would have been a waste of resources. Keeping Doug Baldwin on a RFA tag was a much more cost efficient move.

I think the more questionable move was not retaining Breno Giacomini, though Giacomini did miss time last year with a knee injury. Giacomini was not a top line contract player that would significantly impact the bottom line, but they may feel that between the draft and Michael Bowie they can get lower cost value.

From there the team opted to main lower cost depth in Tony McDaniel, Anthony McCoy, and Steven Hauschka at positions of weakness/need rather than the players in the secondary. Both Walter Thurmond and Brandon Browner could be valuable pieces in the secondary, but with big money expected to be invested in starters either this year or next, they were expendable.

Overall Grade: C+

Much like their rivals, the 49ers, little was going to be expected of the Seahawks this offseason. Every move they make has to be with a forward eye on 2015 rather than a strict focus on 2014. While that can be alarming the fact is they have major contract extensions soon coming due for Richard Sherman, Russell Wilson, Earl Thomas, and Russell Okung. Those players need to be replaced with low cost draft picks in the future and the Seahawks will likely optimize their compensatory selections next season.

Most importantly the team did not touch the contracts of Harvin, Marshawn Lynch, or even Cliff Avril for cap relief. They made the tough decisions to release Red Bryant and Chris Clemons while getting better terms on Zach Miller and eventually Sidney Rice. By not overspending this year and pushing more money into next season Seattle should have one of the top 7 cap situations in 2015. That gives them the money, starting now, to lock up the important pieces for the future and potentially replenish their low cost production in the 2014 and 2015 drafts, which is what drives their grade.

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A Look at Pricing Points for Richard Sherman and the Seahawks

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I had a few comments today about CB Richard Sherman of the Seattle Seahawks and what he could be worth in the future to Seattle, so I thought why not take a look at Sherman and his potential value. Sherman is currently in the 3rd year of a rookie contract signed in 2011 and can be extended following the season, so this is clearly a big year for him.

The Performance

I think most people universally recognized Sherman as the best cornerback in the NFL last season.  I maintain a few different evaluation criteria by which I look at cornerbacks, usually using the raw data from Pro Football Focus. One such evaluation matrix looks at corners in four categories: percent passes caught, QBR against,  percent active breakups ((PD + Int)/Tgt), and YAC.

Last season, which was Sherman’s breakout year, he ranked 5th, 2nd, 1st, and 17th among corners with at least 50% playtime. The only other players with three top 10 rankings in the categories were Casey Heyward of the Green Bay Packers, who ranked 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 62nd, and Antonio Cromartie of the Jets who ranked 3rd, 12th, 7th, and 8th.  Here are how the three stack up compared to last years’ league average.

corner performance

Comparing Sherman and Heyward is a bit difficult (besides defensive scheme differences) because they cover different types of receivers. Heyward plays primarily in the slot, which is a reason why his YAC is so poor. Often when you trail a guy in the slot the player is going to catch the ball running and keep going. Likewise that also can improve the QBR since the formula takes into account things like TD’s which more often than not hit outside targets.

In terms of veteran talent really nobody came close. Players like Champ Bailey and Brandon Flowers were nowhere near these levels and Cortland Finnegan was awful. Of course Darrelle Revis was injured. So in terms of outside play Sherman was the clear cut number 1 corner.

Now Revis’ 2009 season is considered the gold standard of cornerbacks while his work in 2010 and 2011 continued to be excellent once fully recovered from injury. Using Revis’ numbers from 2009 through 2011 we come up with some interesting takeaways comparing the two players.

sherman vs revis

With the exception of reception rates, Sherman’s 2012 season compares favorably with Revis over the 3 year prime period he had with the Jets. While none of this means Sherman is a better player I think it at least brings up the thought that it is worth looking deeper into the stats to see how they compare.

Another set of stats that I keep are stats that deal with expected versus actual performance. These numbers are based on expected WR performance, which is to be targeted 20.2% of the time on a pass play with an outside catch rater of 58.6% for 14.2 YPC. I also factor in slot play which is 64.9% for 12.6 YPC.  Using these numbers I calculate what is called the “Shutdown Stats” which identify how many receptions and yards a player prevents his target from getting in a game.

A second category Team Category which was I considered when Nnamdi Asomugha was playing dreadful in Philadelphia in 2011 when thrown on but he was still rarely being thrown at.  This assumes that the corner plays across from an average player and that “shutting down” his opponent doesn’t necessarily lead to an incompletion, just a throw to a different target. This should be a consideration  if paying one corner means bringing in below average talent at the other corner spots. Few teams are so dominant with one main WR that it can eliminate the effectiveness of the highly paid cornerback.

sherman vs revis 2

Under this set of criteria Sherman falls short of Revis at his peak, though these are still exceptional numbers. The reason for the disparity between Sherman and Revis in the team categories has to do more with the notion of what is typically called a shutdown corner.

Revis is extremely unique in that despite his reputation he got thrown on often, particularly in the 2009 season. In 2009 Revis was targeted nearly 20% of the time he was in coverage. In contrast Asomugha, who was always considered a “shutdown” player, was targeted less than 7% of the time in Oakland. Revis’ numbers were more in line with Sherman’s over the next two seasons. Sherman was targeted 14.6% of the time last season.

So even though he does not match with Revis in this criteria these are still excellent numbers and he has done it for two years in a row. The team yard discrepancy is just a byproduct of being targeted less than Revis and considering the system in Seattle is excellent the numbers are skewed because the secondary targets are all well covered, not all that different from the Revis/Cromartie tandem in NY.

Recent veteran players that have put up numbers like Sherman’s were those who earned big money contracts or were named Franchise Players.

The Marketplace

There may be no more difficult market to balance right now than the cornerback market. To say it crashed would be the understatement of the year. Players that many thought could be potentially franchised were signing $4 and $5 million dollar per year contracts. It stands to be seen whether or not this was people like myself simply overvaluing a group of players or if the new spread offenses are convincing teams that overspending on one player is not as important as balance in the secondary.  Sherman’s new contract will likely put that in perspective.

At the top of the market is Revis at $16 million a season.  Not only is Revis’ contract an outlier but for Revis to get that money, which he was desperate to get as it was extremely important to he and his agents to be the highest paid defensive player, he gave up all guaranteed money. Considering he is coming off an ACL injury that is a very risky move for a player.

If the high end market still exists Sherman will probably work from the contracts given to Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers and Cortland Finnegan who would be the young player comparables. Also in that upper echelon pay group is Champ Bailey who is significantly older and has more of his money tied in incentives, but because of age I don’t consider Bailey to be a consideration.

In addition I think an important contract to look at is the contract Revis had leading into 2013 with the New York Jets. That contract was specifically designed to be a somewhat “fair market” value contract when an outlier existed. In that case it was Asomugha earning over $16 million a year from the Raiders.

Corner cap chart

The Price

I think the fact that Sherman is on the Seahawks will work to his advantage in setting a price for a few reasons. One is that he is incredibly important to their defense and at its core the Seahawks are a defensive team. He will turn 26 in 2014 and will be entering the prime of career so there should be less concern than there would be with an older player.

But most important is that Sherman has a specific player to point to within the organization as a reason for holding the Seahawks feet to the fire. That player is WR Percy Harvin. With one season left on his contract the Seahawks turned around and gave Harvin, nowhere as accomplished of a player as Sherman,  a stunning contract worth nearly $13 million a year. In the past Seattle has also overextended a bit for TE Zach Miller, WR Sidney Rice, and RB Marshawn Lynch.

In general I would say that they are a team that clearly pays for what they believe is future performance rather than relying on past performance as an indicator of worth. So the data points are specifically there with this team to receive a top of the market contract.

Though Sherman is not Revis I think that he should make a strong push for a 3 year payout similar to what Revis received from the Jets. That would shatter the $33 million threshold for the other players. Because Sherman will have one low cost year remaining on his contract, meaning his three year payout can be spread among 4 years, the Seahawks can likely get the cap dollars to work out in his contract moreso than if they wait until after the 2014 season. I don’t know if he can reach the annual value of Revis’ old contract given the market conditions but $11 million a year I think would actually be acceptable to both sides.

Remember that both sides should have a reason to get a deal done this offseason. In the case of the Seahawks a $55 million dollar extension signed next year will really be a 6 year $56.4 million dollar deal for cap purposes, a bargain compared to the contracts that were earned in free agency. It’s the lone justification they had for Harvin’s contract. From Sherman’s perspective not only does he get money up front but he eliminates the Franchise tag from play, which impacts his ability to earn a third contract in his early 30s, and the uncertainty of free agency. Though teams will surely bid high for Sherman will they overbid or will they consider decent players earning $4 or $5 million as a baseline to work from?

The Changing Dynamic of the Seahawks

Seattle, which finally found success in 2012 after years of rebuilding, is now entering a phase where philosophically they may need to make some changes for salary cap purposes.   Seattle has been able to be active in free agency and trade market because of having so many quality players on relatively low cost rookie contracts.

The process has already started with extensions given to DE Red Bryant and  C Max Unger in 2012 and S Kam Chancellor in 2013. Those were players on 4th, 2nd, and 5th round contracts that are now either top 10 or close to it contracts.  Sherman has been paid as a 5th rounder and will now be paid as one of the top players at the position. Also up soon for contracts are S Earl Thomas (FA in 2015), who is going to want more than Chancellor,  T Russell Okung (FA in 2016), CB Brandon Browner (FA in 2014), and of course QB Russell Wilson (extension can occur in 2015).

Seattle already has a high payroll in 2014 which will likely be quickly solved by the releases of some combination of veterans such as Rice, Miller, Cliff Avril, and Chris Clemons, whose salary cap numbers will be replaced by the extended players. But once those salaries are replaced by younger home grown Seahawks the ability to jump into free agency and trades may be severely compromised.

As a fan of the Jets I have very closely watched a similar situation play out in New York. It was not long ago that the Jets went to back to back AFC Championship games with a roster that was built through a combination of quality relatively low cost draft picks, trading for rookie contract players and overextending somewhat in free agency. Eventually those low cost players- Revis, Nick Mangold, D’Brickashaw Ferguson,   David Harris, Antonio Cromartie, and Santonio Holmes- all became high priced veterans over the course of two offseasons and the whole dynamic changed.

Now the Jets have had other problems beyond those signings, but once you move into major extensions for young talent it leaves you no margin for error. They were unable to bring in other pieces due to long term cap considerations and had no choice but to draft well to replenish the roster with low cost studs. Unfortunately for the Jets their drafts from 2008 thru 2010 proved to be complete disasters. Of 13 players drafted only 1 is currently starting for the Jets (G Vlad Ducasse) and only 3 are on the Jets (Ducasse, CB Kyle Wilson, and QB Mark Sanchez). With the salary cap the way it is it is almost impossible to have success when you have no low cost contributors on the team. It only took two seasons for the Jets to go from Super Bowl contenders to being considered one of the worst teams in the NFL and in part it’s because the team could not fall back on what got them to the dance in terms of trades and free agency because the cap no longer allowed it. At best they could hit the bargain bin for 1 year contracts for “prove it” players like S Laron Landry.

With that in mind the 2012 to 2014 draft classes will be of the utmost importance to the Seahawks. Wilson will be extended early, but almost everyone else could be in a position where they have to play their deals out. You need a high hit rate to make up for all these new contracts that will be hitting the books next season.  Turning to free agency for anything more than a stopgap will be difficult. Trading away draft picks will be very difficult. It’s a good situation to have but it’s one that teams have to begin preparing for long before the new deals actually hit the books for the team.

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