Houston Texans Trade Mark Ingram to New Orleans Saints

Wednesday afternoon multiple reports came out that Houston and New Orleans had agreed to terms on a trade that would send veteran runningback Mark Ingram from Houston to his old stomping grounds New Orleans. Houston had a glut of runningback depth with five backs on the active roster prior to this trade. New Orleans was short handed on runningback depth. Essentially this could be classified as a “win win” for both sides.

The trade terms have been revealed today with details as follows: Houston received a 2024 7th round pick. Essentially a contract dump to avoid paying the salary if Ingram was released.

Houston signed Mark Ingram early in the free agency process since Ingram was a street free agent. Head Coach David Culley was very familiar with Ingram’s work and character after spending time together in Baltimore. By most accounts this signing was as much about veteran leadership, culture, and a locker room rebuild as it was for performance. Teams generally do not sign 31 year runningbacks for their potential performance.

To facilitate the trade and to assist New Orleans with their tight cap situation, Ingram signed a 1 year extension including a $250,000 signing bonus (to be paid by Houston). New Orleans will now only have to pay 11 weeks of pro-rated $1.075 million base salary for 2021. Ingram is set to earn a $300,000 roster bonus in 2022 along with a non-guaranteed salary and $500,000 in per game bonuses. Details of the contract restructure provided by Field Yates of ESPN.

The trade was surprising for some, including myself, given how much Culley’s valued Ingram’s leadership and presence on and off the field. Suspect that New Orleans reached out the Houston on Ingram’s availability, and as with Caserio on this rebuild almost every player on the roster is available via trade.

Some have speculated that Caserio had alternative motives in signing such a large veteran free agent group as opposed to signing a large undrafted free agent class. The thought is that Caserio may try to flip some of the players for draft picks. Caserio has shown, early in his tenure, that he is willing to spend cash for draft picks (see Randall Cobb, Shaq Lawson, Bradley Roby).

Update (as of 3:30 pm CST) the New Orleans Saints tweeted a video of Ingram’s explanation of the trade. It is interesting to note that Houston approached Ingram and gave him the opportunity to make the choice. This was not a team directed move to just move a player for draft assets.

New Orleans Saints Cap Maneuverings for 2021

With the 2021 salary cap expected to come in much lower than initially contemplated due to lost revenues attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, a handful of NFL teams appear to be in serious trouble for next season.  Among those teams, the New Orleans Saints serve as the poster child for organizations residing in salary cap hell.  The Saints currently have approximately $276 million on the books for the 2021 season, prior to any salaries allocated for free agency, the draft, practice squad, injury contingencies, etc.  Meanwhile, the league and the NFLPA have negotiated a salary cap floor of $175 million for 2021, with the hope being that 2020 revenues will come in better than expected, pushing the cap higher.  A reasonable optimist would project an NFL cap number in the $185 – $190 million range.  Even in an optimistic scenario, the Saints sit north of $85 million over the projected salary cap.  So, how will the Saints slash this unprecedented amount off of their cap for next season?  Let’s take a look at how they can do it.

The main tools at the Saints’ disposal are 1) player cuts, 2) contract restructurings, 3) extensions that lower the 2021 cap hit, and 4) trades.  The Saints will likely need to utilize all four tactics in order to stay within the confines of the 2021 cap.  Note that for this article, we’ll focus only on moves that significantly impact the salary cap, as opposed to diving too far in the weeds. With a goal of slashing approximately $90 million off the Saints’ 2021 cap number, let’s get to work.

Player Cuts

QB Drew Brees

The Saints will likely have a change at quarterback, with future Hall of Famer Drew Brees expected to retire at the end of the 2020 season.  We’ll start there for our first transaction.  Brees currently has a $36.15 million cap number for 2021, comprised of a $25 million P5 salary (P5 meaning base) and $11.15 million in prorated bonus.  While the resulting dead money from Brees’ contract will be vast, we will need to save what we can off the 2021 cap.  Brees also has two voidable years attached to his contract, so solely for cap purposes, his contract runs through 2023.  If the Saints were to cut Brees in 2021 in connection with his retirement, the team would incur $22.65 million in dead money, while saving $13.5 million. For the purposes of this article, we’ll presume the Saints will go ahead with this move and save a much needed $13.5 million from their 2021 cap.

The Saints do have another tool to be used at their disposal, albeit one with complications – a post-June 1 cut.  If designated as a post-June 1 cut, then from June 2 and forward, the $22.65 million in dead money would be spread out over multiple years, with the Saints incurring $11.15 million in dead money on the 2021 cap, with the remaining $11.5 million in dead money (attributable to the bonus dollars for his 2022 and 2023 seasons) hitting the 2022 cap.  The key issue here is that in order for the Saints to make Brees a post-June 1 cut, the team will have to carry his full $36.15 million cap number up through June 1. Given that the team has to be under the 2021 salary cap at the start of the league year in March, this becomes an extremely difficult proposition for the Saints to pull off. Not impossible, but very complex.  So for our purposes here, we’ll designate Brees a pre-June 1 cut.

LB Kwon Alexander

            The Saints traded for linebacker Kwon Alexander mid-way through the 2020 season, nabbing him from the San Francisco 49ers for another player and a conditional pick.  As a result of the trade, Alexander’s remaining bonus payments accelerated to the 49ers’ cap, making Alexander easy to cut by the Saints since no dead money remains.  Alexander has a $13.4 million cap charge in 2021, pursuant to which the Saints can cut Alexander and save…$13.4 million off their cap.  Let’s not overthink this here.  That’s another $13.4 million saved.

CB Janoris Jenkins

            We next move to cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who has been a solid starter for the Saints over the past few seasons.  Unfortunately for Jenkins, he has a whopping $14.2 million cap hit for 2021, with $7 million to be saved if the Saints release him. While far from ideal to be saddled with $7.2 million in dead money for 2021, the team needs the $7 million in savings.

WR Emmanuel Sanders

            Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders joined the Saints in free agency prior to the 2020 season, with the team hoping to solidify the its number two receiver spot.  The signing made sense on paper, but the result has been mixed.  Sanders currently has a $10 million cap number for 2021, which makes him another strong candidate to be released for savings.  As a pre-June 1 cut, the Saints take a $6 million cap hit while saving $4 million.  That’s not a substantial amount to save, but it’s necessary given the team’s situation.  The Saints will save $4 million off their 2021 cap by cutting Sanders, and let’s go ahead and make this move.

DL Malcom Brown

            Veteran interior defensive lineman Malcom Brown has been a solid member of the team’s rotation.  Unfortunately, the team needs to save cap space where it can, and Brown is expendable due to his contract.  Brown has a $6.5 million cap number for 2021, with $5 million of that amount to be saved by the Saints if they cut him, resulting in only $1.5 million of dead money.  Not much more to explain here, but unfortunately Brown needs to go.  The Saints save $5 million off their 2021 cap by cutting Brown.

G Nick Easton

            Veteran guard Nick Easton has been with the Saints since 2019, starting several games for the team. He’s been a steady performer, but he’s also got a $7 million cap number for 2021.  The bad news for Easton is that the Saints save $6 million by cutting him.  Not much to think about here – Easton will have to go, and there’s $6 million trimmed off the cap.

The players mentioned above will not be the team’s only cuts.  But for purposes of this exercise, they are identified as the team’s primary cuts in order to reach the goal of slashing nearly $90 million.  Through the player cuts mentioned above, the team saves $48.9 million off their 2021 cap.  This gets us over half way to the goal, but more work remains.

Contract Restructures

            Teams frequently restructure contracts, which frees up immediate cap room, but at the expense of incurring larger cap charges over the coming seasons.  In a sense, think of it as using a credit card – you defer payment now, but the bill will eventually be due later.  The Saints will need to utilize this approach as they work to come in line with the 2021 salary cap.  Unfortunately, a large reason that they are in this financial mess to begin with is due to restructuring veteran contracts, including repeatedly re-doing Drew Brees’ contract.  In any event, the Saints don’t have much choice here given how much money needs to be shaved.  As for which players make strong restructure candidates, you need three main components – 1) players with a high P5 salary for the season in question (so 2021 in this case), 2) players who the team strongly expects to be around for years to come, and 3) sufficient duration of contract remaining, or to be added, in order to absorb the future increase in cap charges.  Conversely, players who you expect to cut within the next year or two are terrible restructure candidates, because the pain you will endure when cutting them will be ruinous to your cap.  With that said, let’s take a look at four players who the Saints could elect to restructure.

DE Cameron Jordan

            While Drew Brees has been the franchise cornerstone on offense, it’s defensive end Cameron Jordan who has played the same role for the defense. Jordan has been with the Saints for ten seasons, and he remains a fixture for the next few years at a minimum.  Looking at Jordan’s contract status, he has a 2021 cap number of $18.9 million, and his contract runs through 2024 (including voidable years).  Jordan makes the ideal restructure candidate, given his stature with the team, his high P5 salary and his contractual status running for four more years.  Taking a closer look at Jordan’s contract, he has a P5 salary of $11.9 million in 2021, together with a signing bonus allocation of $5 million, a roster bonus of $1.9 million and a workout bonus of $100,000, thus adding up to a cap charge of $18.9 million.  Focusing on the P5 salary, let’s lower this by paying Jordan the NFL minimum salary for 2021, while converting the rest of the salary to an additional signing bonus.  The expected 2021 minimum NFL salary for veterans will be in the $1.1 million range, so let’s lower his 2021 P5 salary to $1.1 million, while paying Jordan out an additional $10.8 million as a signing bonus.  With Jordan’s contract running through 2024, the new $10.8 million signing bonus gets split over 4 years for cap purposes, providing an additional $2.7 million cap charge via signing bonus over the aforementioned four year period.  This will reduce Jordan’s 2021 cap number to $10.8 million, resulting from his new P5 salary of $1.1 million, $2.7 million attributable to the new signing bonus, plus $7 million in previous bonuses (initial signing bonus, roster bonus and workout bonus).  Importantly for our exercise, the Saints will save $8.1 million off their 2021 cap, while $2.7 million will also be added to their cap in each of the 2022, 2023 and 2024 seasons.

WR Michael Thomas

            Prior to the 2021 season, any notion that top wide receiver Michael Thomas would wear a uniform other than that of the Saints would have been ridiculed.  While there has been some tumult between the player and the team in 2020, the smart money here is that Thomas will remain a fixture for the Saints – he’s just too important to the team to trade away.  As the Saints still need to unlock more savings, Thomas makes for another great restructure candidate.  Looking at Thomas’ contract, he has a 2021 cap charge of $18.8 million, with a $12.6 million P5 salary, $6 million in prorated bonus and $200,000 for a workout bonus.  His contract runs through 2024 as well, so we have plenty of room to lower his 2021 cap number.  Let’s take the same approach with Thomas as we did with Jordan, reducing his P5 salary to the NFL veteran’s minimum and converting the remainder to a signing bonus to be spread over four years.  Doing the math, we convert $11.5 million of salary to signing bonus, resulting in a $2.875 cap charge over each of the remaining four years.  As a result, Thomas’ cap charge for 2021 reduces to $10.175 million ($1.1 million P5 salary, $6.2 million in existing bonuses and $2.875 million for the new signing bonus), providing a savings of $8.625 million for the 2021 season.  Of course $2.875 million in additional cap charges also hit the 2022, 2023 and 2024 seasons, but we are concerned with 2021 here, and we did our job by saving the team $8.625 million in cap charges for the 2021 season. 

LT Terron Armstead

            For the last few years, the Saints have boasted one of the top offensive lines in the game, with left tackle Terron Armstead playing a leading role in the unit’s success.  The Saints will need to keep Armstead to protect their likely post-Brees successor at QB in 2021, so we’ll get to work in restructuring his salary as well.  Armstead has a cap charge of $16.2875 million for 2021, comprised of a P5 salary of $10.15 million, with a multitude of other bonuses totaling $6.1375 million.  Armstead’s contract runs through 2023 due to two voidable years tacked onto the end of his deal.  We’re going to use those years to help us alleviate some of his 2021 cap charge.  So taking his $10.15 million P5 salary, and for simplicity’s sake, reducing him to a new P5 salary of $1.15 million for 2021, we convert $9 million of his P5 to a signing bonus.  This results in $3 million in additional cap charges for each year from 2021 through 2023, while resulting in an ultimate savings of $6 million for the Saints’ 2021 cap.  Armstead’s new 2021 cap charge becomes $10.2875 ($1.15 million P5 salary, $6.1375 million in existing bonuses and $3 million for the new signing bonus).

LG Andrus Peat

The Saints view left guard Andrus Peat as a building block, as evidenced by the team locking him up through 2024 with a rich extension.  Peat’s cap number for 2021 is $11.6 million, with a $9 million base salary and $2.6 from a prorated signing bonus. In other words, he’s an excellent restructure candidate as well. Let’s convert all but $1.1 million of his 2021 P5 salary into a signing bonus, which spreads the new $7.9 signing bonus in equal charges over four years on the cap. As a result, Peat’s new 2021 cap number is $5.675 million, consisting of his $1.1 million P5 salary, existing $2.6 million signing bonus proration and $1.975 million new signing bonus proration. The Saints save $5.925 million off their 2021 cap as a result.

We’re done restructuring contracts, with some immediate relief granted to the Saints in exchange for longer-term cap pain.  But again, the Saints don’t have much choice here.  The team saves a collective $28.65 million off their 2021 cap with these restructures.  We are almost done assisting the Saints with the heavy lifting in their 2021 cap endeavors, but we need to make a few more moves.

Contract Extension

The Saints believe that their long term successor at QB currently resides on their roster.  Taysom Hill has filled in admirably as the team’s starter while Brees recovers from injury, even if Hill hasn’t quite silenced the doubters outside of the Saints’ organization.  Assuming the team wants to commit to Hill for the longer term, then it makes sense to sign him to an extension, while also lowering his 2021 cap number.  As it currently stands, Hill has a $16.159 million cap number for 2021, comprised of a $10.72 million P5 salary plus $5.439 million in bonuses.  While Hill has shown some promise at quarterback, he still hasn’t quite shown that he’s a safe bet as a franchise signal caller. As such, let’s give him a modest extension, somewhere in the range of $2 years, $50 million, which ties Hill to the Saints through the 2023 season. As for the contract itself, let’s go with a $10 million signing bonus, with two years at $20 million each, with the 2022 P5 salary fully guaranteed.  Given the timing of the extension, leaving three years on Hill’s deal, the bonus is spread on the cap over three years at $3.33 million each year.  Next, the Saints can earn more relief for 2021 by converting Hill’s 2021 P5 salary into a signing bonus, excluding the minimum salary amount.  After doing so, Hill has a $1.1 million P5 salary for 2021, together with an additional signing bonus of $9.62 million, which hits the cap over three years at approximately $3.21 million per season.  After the smoke clears here, Hill’s new 2021 salary cap number is $13.079 million, which consists of his $1.1 million P5 salary, $5.439 in current bonuses, plus $6.54 million attributable to the two new signing bonuses.  The Saints ultimately save $3.08 million off the 2021 cap, while also gaining some years with Hill under contract.

Trade

Along with some difficult player cuts and salary restructures, the Saints will need to make some tough decisions among players that they want to keep.  As such, what will be proposed here may ruffle some feathers, but slashing $90 million off a team’s cap does not leave for easy choices.

CB Marshon Lattimore

            The Saints drafted exceptionally well in 2017, which re-opened their Super Bowl window over the last few seasons.  The only downside to drafting exceptionally well in one season…the bill comes due for that draft group at the same time.  Cornerback Marshon Lattimore has been outstanding for the team, arguably serving as the team’s best player in the secondary over the past few years.  As a former first round pick, Lattimore has a fifth year option in 2021, which the Saints picked up in a no brainer move after the 2019 season.  The fifth year option is for $10.244 million in P5 salary, with no bonuses attached.  As such, the cap charge matches the P5 salary, with no cap penalties to be incurred by the Saints for trading or cutting the player.  While the Saints could make it work to keep Lattimore for 2021 and beyond, the reality is that it will take a very lucrative extension (think $18 million per year or more) to keep Lattimore in the fold over the long term.  With stud right tackle Ryan Ramczyk also needing an extension, not to mention the team needing to fill a whole host of other needs (addressing holes from roster attrition via free agency and otherwise, the 2021 draft class, practice squad and contingencies, etc.), the Saints can’t keep everyone.  The team may, however, be able to get a first round pick or equivalent compensation for Lattimore, which will help usher in the next era while also providing important cap relief and a cost controlled player for four plus years.  Under this proposed plan, the Saints trade Lattimore away for a first round pick and save $10.244 million off their 2021 cap in the process.

Conclusion

            We took on the task of reducing the Saints’ salary cap charges by approximately $90 million for 2021, and here’s where we landed as a result of the cuts, restructurings, extension and the trade referenced above:

ActionSavings
Player Cuts$48.9 million
Restructurings$28.65 million
Extension Lowering 2021 Cap Hit$3.08 million
Trade$10.244 million
Total$90.874 million

            So there you have it, more than $90 million has been slashed off the team’s 2021 salary cap.  It’s actually amazing how $90 million can disappear off a team’s salary cap, albeit with a lot of moves.  And just as a reminder, this is far from an exhaustive list of moves the team will need to make, but the transactions above will lead the Saints most of the way towards 2021 cap compliance.  The team will inevitably need to make several tough decisions, some of which will be unpopular with Who Dat Nation.  But the result of continuously punting cap decisions into the future will finally come due in 2021.  The good news for Saints fans – after making the moves above, the team will still remain formidable. But there’s no question that the 2020 season will be the team’s best shot at a Super Bowl ring, at least for the next few years. 

Navigating the Saints 2021 Salary Cap Situation

Though the Saints are looking like the top dog in the NFC, more and more people are starting to take notice of their salary cap situation next year. Jason LaCanfora of CBS wrote an article just last week on it where he asked some other team cap managers how to handle it and they all agreed it’s a pretty big mess. Assuming the cap drops to around $175 million we project the Saints to be in the ballpark of $95 million over the salary cap (this may get reported higher due to a unique contract situation that only occurred because of the CBA but we are factoring in the intent of that contract into our cap number), which I believe has to be the worst salary cap position a team has ever been in, though in the Saints defense nobody every anticipated a pandemic potentially wiping out the salary cap for a year.

So I’ll have some fun and take a shot at running through the Saints roster and some moves that I think they will consider.  At the end of each player move I’ll keep a running tally of where we are with the cap.

Restructure Drew Brees’ Contract Depending on Decision to Retire or Play

A lot of what the Saints will likely do with their roster hinges on the decision of Brees. Brees currently counts for $36.15 million on the Saints salary cap which clearly can’t happen if they want to comply with the cap. If he retires the team will pick up $13.5 million in cap space while carrying $22.65 million in dead money, but I think the Saints can get creative here to work with this contract.

If Brees is 100% certain he is going to retire the Saints can reduce his salary to the league minimum of $1.075 million. That would allow the Saints to drop his salary cap number from $36.15 million to $12.2225 million a savings of $23.925 million. The team would have to carry Brees as an active player until June 2nd at which point they would officially place him on the retired list and receive the June 1 cap benefit. Rather than taking on $22.65 million in dead money in 2021 the team would only have an $11.15 million charge for Brees in 2021 and $11.5 million in 2022.

What if Brees is not sure he wants to retire and acts a bit like Brett Favre at the end of his career? One option is to add more void years to the contract, reduce his salary as above, and convert the $23.925 million to an option bonus that is due after the first game of the season. Under that type of contract Brees would count for $17.01 million, a savings of $19.14 million. If Brees does decide to retire the team would get the same savings as in the first scenario since the option would never be exercised. If he plays then you have a lot more dead money to deal with in 2022 but that is the price of Brees returning.

If Brees is 100% certain that he will return again you have a few options. The basic one would mimic the $19.14 million in savings I just mentioned using a basic conversion. The second one would see him actually extend his contract into 2022 (2022 is currently a void year) with a guaranteed roster bonus due on the first day of the league year. They should be able to make this not subject to any forfeiture such that he can earn it and then retire, ala Andrew Luck. Doing this allows them to bring that cap number down to the $12.2225 million number and get the best of all worlds. Brees would have to also be willing to modify his contract like this. You could also do a similar contract in the Favre scenario if he is agreeable.

After thinking about it for a bit I think no matter what the Saints probably need to turn 2022 into a real contract year under any scenario in which Brees may play in 2021. Doing this  gives them the capability to do the same trick with the contract I said for 2021 and use the June 1 in 2022 if Brees plays in 2021 and wants to retire in 2022. Since Brees seems happy to play for $25M every year a token $25M base salary should be fair.

In any event I’m confident I can come up with a way to get that $23.925 million in savings here with Brees, so about $70 million to go.

Cut Kwon Alexander

No matter what happens this year the Saints have to look at this Alexander trade as a one year shot and not get fooled into trying to keep an often injured linebacker long term. There is $0 associated with releasing Alexander so that will save the team $13.4 million. We are now $56.7 million away from being cap compliant.

Restructure Cameron Jordan

The Saints just extended Jordan last season so I have to imagine he is in their plans with or without Brees. Jordan has an $18.9 million salary cap charge next year and $13.8 million in salary. He currently has one void year on his contract and they can tack on one additional one to maximize the cap savings. This move would increase the rest of his contract by $2.565 million a season but save $10.26 million on the 2021 cap. The downside with this move is you are likely locking into Jordan for at least the 2022 season when he will be 33. With this restructure we have $46.4 million left to go. (Note- Thanks to one of our readers pointing it out I had a big error here that moved this number by about $13 million from the original article so the totals are now reflected for that. Sorry for the confusion)

Cut Nick Easton

Easton’s $7 million cap figure is way too high for a player who is going to be a backup barring injury to someone else. They could try to bring his number down for the season but with just $1 million in dead money it probably makes sense to cut and then revisit later on if necessary. This saves $6 million in cap space putting us $40.4 million away from our goal.

Cut Janoris Jenkins

Jenkins is having a decent year but there is no way to justify an $11.2 million salary and a $14.2 million salary cap charge next year. Jenkins does have $1.2 million in guaranteed salary next year with no offsets but I think you just eat that charge. Cutting Jenkins frees up $7 million in cap space, though it also leaves them with an ugly $7.2 million dead money charge. We are $33.4 million away from making it to cap compliancy.

Restructure Marshon Lattimore

Lattimore is going to be a tricky contract negotiation. He is entering the final year of his contract and will count $10.244 million on the salary cap. He has probably gotten worse every year in coverage but I can’t see gutting the entire secondary in 2021 especially if Brees returns. If you enter extension negotiations with Lattimore he is going to be expensive. He is a first round pick and recent contracts for Jalen Ramsey, Tre’Davious White, and Marlon Humphrey have averaged between $17.25 million and $20 million a year. Most likely he is going to look for something close to the $20 million spectrum. I’m not sure if he is really worth that number or not to New Orleans. They could trade him but there is no cap relief associated with that during the lead in to free agency so keep that in mind if that is an option.

In any event there should not be anything that prevents me from adding four void years to Lattimore’s contract for cap purposes and deferring his salary charges to 2021. I can lower Lattimore’s cap charge to $2.84 million by doing this. If the team does wind up extending Lattimore after the season they will keep the $1.85M in proration from 22 to 25 as is, a pretty low cost overall. If they don’t extend him then you are baking $7.4 million dead into 2022, but 2021 is our primary concern not 2022 at this point. With $7.4 million in savings for 2021 we are now $26 million over the salary cap.

Extend Ryan Ramczyk

All of the above for Lattimore may also apply to Ramczyk, who will count for $11.064 million on the Saints 2021 salary cap as he moves into his final contract year. The only reason I put the extend label on him is because I think this is an easier contract to handle. Jack Conklin is the highest paid true right tackle in the NFL at $14 million a year so I think getting to $15 million a season can probably get this one done. On top of that its less money pay outs on these deals- Conklin made $20 million in new money in the first new year of his contract while the cornerbacks are well into the $30 million range. Now you can argue the benefit of a right tackle versus a corner without Brees but many teams will, I believe, opt for the security of the offensive line in front of a young QB down the line.  

I think you can do a deal here that would give Ramczyk an $8 million raise in 2021 while bringing his cap number down to $4.6 million by paying him a $1 million salary and an $18 million signing bonus. That probably means a $17.6 million cap charge the next year but that should be workable especially since they can restructure if needed. We have saved $6.46 million with the extension bringing us to about $19.6 million over the salary cap.

Cut Malcom Brown

Brown is a solid player on the Saints defensive line but I think that you can almost always find solid nose tackles that would probably be cheaper than the $6.5 million cap charge he will have next year, especially if the pandemic leads to a number of veterans being available for pennies on the dollar. If the team cuts him they will save $5 million in cap room which is significant given their cap situation. This puts us$14.5 million over the salary cap.

Cut Latavius Murray

I know the Saints like having Murray to spell Alvin Kamara but once you do that big deal with Kamara you really can’t afford to waste another $4.2 million on a backup. The backup needs to be cheaper at this point. If you cut Murray you will save $2.5 million on the cap. You would have to replace him with either a minimum salary vet (cap charge around $1M) or lower drafted rookie (cap charge around $800K). Maybe the Saints will think the net savings are not worth it , but I would think that they are. We are now $12 million away.

Cut Thomas Morstead

Morstead has been around forever and those players are hard to part ways with, but his $4.5 million cap charge is the second highest in the NFL and about $2.5 million more than the league average spent on the position. I just don’t see how you justify that, especially in today’s game. The Saints rank 22nd in number of punts through 8 games so around the NFL average or just below. They save $2.5 million by releasing Morstead getting us to $9.5 million.

Restructure Michael Thomas

I saved this one for last because while I think it will be necessary if the cap hits the lowest of lows to sign rookies and/or a QB if Brees retires I was a little hesitant because of the issues the team seems to have had with Thomas this year. Right now trading Thomas would cost the Saints $1.2 million in cap room so I don’t see that as likely even if Brees retires. However, restructuring this contract probably makes him untradeable in 2022 as well which most likely will be the last year he would have any significant trade value. By adding a void year I can drop his cap charge from $18.8 million in 2021 to $9.5 million, which blocks our trades in 2022 unless we want to take on over $25 million in dead money. So they need to make sure they are 100% on board with Thomas if they want to go here. This brings us to pretty much where we need to be to at least comply with the cap.

Other possible moves

I avoided a few other moves for a few reasons but we can walk through them here. I did not cut Emmanuel Sanders despite a $10 million cap hit. This was strictly related to my thinking Brees comes back and I think would want that third receiver. I don’t see a point in adding even more dead money to his 2022 void year because unlike Lattimore I don’t see any chance that they retain him in 2022 so I would rather bite the bullet all in 2021. If Brees does not return he is a no brainer cut regardless of a $2 million salary guarantee. Cutting him saves $4 million….I did not touch the contract of Terron Armstead. 2021 is his last year under contract and there is already $5 million in dead money for him coming in 2022. Armstead is a terrific player when healthy but has played in 7, 10, 10, and 15 games the last four years. He’ll be expensive to extend if he stays healthy but I would rather wait to see how things shake out over the next year. If they did push money on him, which would be reasonable if they see a better than 70% chance they extend him in 22, you would save $8.12 million if you add void years. If you fail to extend him, though, you have gone from $5.075 million in dead money in 2022 to $13.2 million, which is a ton of leverage for a player to have. It probably makes more sense to just extend him outright in this scenario….No chance I’m touching the Andrus Peat contract. Peat has an $11.6 million cap charge and they could open up around $6 million there, but he has the most downside of the players on that line and they should keep open the possibility of cutting him in 2022…I also didn’t touch Taysom Hill’s contract because there is no point to it and I don’t see them cutting him so no need to mention it. So if the Saints went absolutely crazy all in for 2021 and did all these things then you are looking at being around $18 million under the cap.

Final Outcome

So based on the numbers above would likely need to cut Jenkins, Alexander, Brown, Easton, Murray, and Morstead. We would be a few minor moves away from having enough space to sign rookies and a few low cost free agents. We could get lower if we really need to go all in to get to $20 million or so under which gives us more wiggle room to really look at the pros and cons of bringing back Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, and Sheldon Rankins. If Brees does retire the team will certainly need a QB unless they really go crazy with Hill. I think they can come to a low cost agreement with Jameis Winston and if they keep him on the sidelines most of this year they can get pretty creative to give him a reasonable way to earn some money without having it count on the cap in 21. Winston flopped in free agency last year and while there will be more openings in 2022 I think they offer the best opportunity for both sides.

Remember these numbers are all worst case scenarios. If the revenues are not impacted as much as we think and they are offset by other union concessions this year you may be able to add millions and millions of dollars to these figures putting them well under the salary cap for next season.  2022 would remain challenging for the Saints even if Brees retires but each year should get easier for them as they transition to the post Brees era, though it is going to be some time before they trend toward the NFL averages for salary cap health.

Michael Thomas’ Contract Negotiations: How the Franchise Tag and Rookie Wage Scale are Garbage

Michael Thomas and the New Orleans Saints are about four million apart on average per year according to Jeff Duncan from NOLA.com. Thomas and his representation team led by Andrew Kessler of Athletes First are asking for $22 million per year, while the Saints are offering $18 million for the wide receiver going into his fourth season of a second round rookie contract that sees him set to earn just $1.15 million in salary this upcoming season.

Continue reading Michael Thomas’ Contract Negotiations: How the Franchise Tag and Rookie Wage Scale are Garbage »

“Caponomics: Building Super Bowl Champions” Now Available on Amazon

Now available on Amazon…

 CAPONOMICS: Building Super Bowl Champions

By Zack Moore

 

Amazon Book Link

Amazon Kindle Link

 An NFL version of Michael Lewis’ “MONEYBALL: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game,” Moore’s CAPONOMICS offers insight into principles and analytics to help teams win Super Bowls…

Moore gives fans a much greater understanding of their team’s decisions…the opportunity for more educated conversations…and, even perhaps, greater value on their Fantasy Football team.

CAPONOMICS…

  • Offers greater understanding of salary cap principles behind free agency and draft moves a team makes—or should make.
  • Provides insight into equating cap value with on-field production to properly assess a player’s production value.
  • Shows how to evaluate quarterback value to avoid overspending and, instead, elevate talent level on the rest of the roster.
  • Discusses how to combine analytics with traditional stats, strategy, coaching philosophy, and more to provide a better understanding of how teams can more effectively spend their cap dollars.
  • Examines moves the Patriots made to compete for championships under Belichick and shows how other teams can replicate this roster construction strategy and use the salary cap as a strategic tool.

CAPONOMICS shows how the NFL can use data and analytics to create sustainable, competitive teams that can compete for Super Bowls.

Michael Lewis’ MONEYBALL (2004) shows how the 2002 Oakland Athletics proved they could compete with the New York Yankees with a far smaller payroll. And, Jonah Keri’s THE EXTRA 2% (2011) follows the Tampa Bay Rays road to the 2008 World Series after finishing in last place in the AL East in nine of their previous 10 seasons of existence.

By using data and analytics to construct rosters, the A’s and Rays took advantage of previously undervalued skill sets to create winning seasons.

With the salary cap, proper resource allocation is even more important in the NFL. Yet, no one had written a book about this topic…until now!

Breaking down salary cap use of the 23 cap-era Super Bowl champion teams and showing how they were constructed from a percentage of salary cap perspective, CAPONOMICS cross-analyzes player value across years with a constantly changing salary cap. Based on his analysis, Moore proposes theories and a blueprint for how teams should be using their salary cap dollars.

From the front office and head coach to the draft and free agency, readers will see how franchises should be making decision in Chapters 1 through 4.

Chapters 5 through 9 analyze how to break down each position, how to spend at each position, and how to maximize return on investment from a salary cap perspective. Moore shows how a team can spend their resources to create a winning season. Chapter 10 provides a value-based argument for increasing the rookie contract structure.

Chapter 10 discusses how current rookie structure is paying many players far below their value through analysis of Jason Fitzgerald’s work in quantifying a draft pick’s value over the course of their rookie contract.

Over the last 17 years, the New England Patriots have proven the potential of effective team-building within the cap. CAPONOMICS clearly analyzes their success!

Saints 2015 Salary Cap Outlook

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Estimated 2015 Cap Space: -$25.1 million ($140M cap limit)

Roster Overview

Players Under Contract: 59
Pro Bowlers: 2
Unrestricted Free Agents: 10(1 with 50%+ playtime)
Draft Selection: 13

Salary Cap Breakdown

Saints 2015 Salary Cap

Saints 2015 Salary Cap

Saints 2015 Salary Cap

Free Agents to Re-sign

It is hard to make much of case for the Saints to really bring back any of their free agents. If they do consider bringing any back it would be the lowest cost players. Parys Haralson will play on the minimum and can be a first down player…The Saints could use players in the secondary which could pave the way for Patrick Robinson to return on a one year contract. They should not consider any more years than that with him.

Free Agents to Let Walk

I can understand making a case to bring back Mark Ingram, but the Saints can afford to spend $4 million on a running back- if they could have afforded it they would have kept Darren Sproles. Ingram was a hard runner for the team last year, but they have always been able to find change runners and not miss a beat…Ramon Humber is cheap but not productive.

Contracts to Modify

Junior Galette has a $12.5 million roster bonus due this March and they will save $10 million in cap space by converting it into a signing bonus. Galette is young so restructuring his contract should not be a major negative for the Saints moving forward…The team has a very difficult decision ahead with receiver Marques Colston and I think in these cases sometimes emotions get in the way and that will push the team towards a restructured contract rather than an outright release. Colston can still play, but $14.7 million over the next two years is far too high. They can convert a majority of his $7 million salary into a bonus and add a few years onto his contract to bring his average down to the $5.5 to $6 million level.

Players to Consider Releasing

Because of the Saints salary cap situation they will need to be active in deconstructing the roster if they have any intention of working with an eye towards the future…Pro Bowl or no Pro Bowl, it is time for the Saints to part ways with Jahri Evans and begin the process of getting younger on the line. His $11 million cap charge is far too high for the team and they can’t afford to go deeper in with him especially if they extend Colston. Cutting him frees up $6 million….Releasing Curtis Lofton will save the team $4 million in cap and they can find a player with more upside in the draft that will cost a fraction of Lofton’s salary…Broderick Bunkley had been relegated to a 40% snap player before he was injured. His release creates $2.88 million in cap space…Pierre Thomas had to take a pay cut last year to remain in New Orleans and could be released to save $1.5 million.

Offseason Plan

Saints GM Mickey Loomis recently said that the Saints were in a better place with their salary cap than they were last season and I’m not really sure of the logic behind that statement, unless he simply means they don’t have to worry about a franchise tag player that is contesting his position or that they are two years away from purging all deals. The team is around $25 million over the cap which is about $15 million worse than the next worst team. Even taking the Galette restructure into account they are still far beyond anyone else in the NFL.

The team is in a difficult position because the perception of the team is very good, but the reality is they have had a losing record in two of the last three seasons. The team has been as big an offender as any team in the history of the NFL at playing “kick the can” and deferring salary cap charges to future years, leaving them with a league high 8 players with cap charges in excess of $9 million.

I’m sure the temptation is there to bring most of the players back, which can be accomplished by restructuring more contracts including that of Drew Brees. Brees’, who only has two years left on his contract, would either need to be extended or utilize void clauses to bring his cap hit way down. Neither should be an option. Other big ticket players like Jairus Byrd, who has missed 17 games over the last two years, and Jimmy Graham, who would project to decline faster than his closest comparable in Rob Gronkowski, need to have the contracts left alone for future flexibility.

Teams have to face difficult decisions when they make these contractual decisions that backfire. Last year the Cowboys released DeMarcus Ware and this year the Steelers will likely part ways with Troy Polamalu, one year after also releasing LaMarr Woodley. Both of those teams will be better for those moves and the Saints should look at those two franchises for some guidance as to navigating a bad situation.

The Saints answers for the future do not lie in free agency.  Sure they may find some bargain basement type that excels for a year the way the Cardinals have the last two seasons, but they can not make another short sighted mistake of signing a Byrd type to a monstrous backloaded contract. The Saints need to start picking this roster apart and determining who will not be a big contributor in 2016 and begin the process of designing exit strategies from those players now and getting replacements in the draft.

They also need to be honest with themselves about Brees’ future in the organization. Brees is most likely not going to take a Tom Brady contract in two years and New Orleans needs to determine if they are willing to continue to pay him at a $20M per year rate or if it will be time to explore life without Brees. If it is the latter they should strongly consider a QB in the draft to learn behind Brees and hope for a relatively seamless transition that occurred when Aaron Rodgers replaced Brett Favre.

For New Orleans this offseason should be all about planning for the future and not making it worse by going out and finding a way to bring in superstar free agents on the defensive side of the football. If they don’t consider a developmental QB then the team will need to find a cornerback, pass rusher, linebacker, and younger lineman in the draft. Free agent additions should only be used on players who are being cut by their teams and drawing minimal interest that the Saints scouts have identified as being a good fit. Anything else and we’ll be right back here next season talking about digging out of a bigger salary cap hole.

Saints Links

Saints Salary Cap Pages

Saints Free Agents

Saints Contracts

Saints GM Salary Cap Calculator

Other Offseason Salary Cap Reports

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OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 5

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