Analyzing Draft Trades & Current GM Trends

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It is officially peak mock draft season. Everyone is hypothesizing where certain players will go and to which teams. And now that we’re less than one week away from the big day on April 23rd, it has become mock draft trade season.

Everyone wants to know if their favorite team will move up for their favorite target, or trade down to get a few more dart throws. Will they tap into their future draft capital in an effort to bolster their roster ASAP? There are endless possibilities, and while every Draft is always different, we can gain insights into the strategies of certain GMs based on their historical moves.

So, what type of GM does your team have? Who makes a lot of moves and who tends to stand pat? The numbers below cover the 2011-2019 Drafts, since the introduction of the Rookie Wage Scale:

GMs that maneuver Up & Down:

  • Les Snead, Los Angeles Rams (9 Up, 15 Down). Les Snead is always looking to bounce around the NFL Draft in search of value. Sometimes it seems like the Rams and Patriots make trades with each other just to spice things up and keep other teams on their toes. All jokes aside, the Rams have been involved in many of the major trades of the decade. They traded out of pick No. 2 for a huge haul in 2012 when the Redskins moved up for Robert Griffin III. Then their turn to strike on a franchise QB came in 2016, when they moved up to No. 1 for Jared Goff.
  • Howie Roseman, Philadelphia Eagles (10 Up, 12 Down). Howie Roseman wheels and deals around the Draft like nobodies business, accumulating more picks when smart to drop back and making moves up when called for. The Eagles are always a team to keep an eye on in the Draft, and this year is no different. At pick No. 21 in the first round, they’re in a pivotal spot that could call for a move in either direction depending how the board falls.
  • John Elway, Denver Broncos (7 Up, 10 Down). The Broncos had a bit of a funny draw in their Draft last year, trading down from No. 10 for a team looking for an inside linebacker, and then trading up to No. 42 for their potential franchise QB. Usually you’d expect the opposite. Nevertheless, the Broncos have done well to add value via Trade-Downs (they still have Pittsburgh’s 3rd this year as a result of the Devin Bush trade) and have picked their spots to make a move as well.
  • Jason Licht, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7 Up, 4 Down). The Buccaneers have had a smart approach to the NFL Draft: Trade Down from higher up in the Draft when the value (positional value or player value) isn’t there, and Trade Up later on when the price isn’t as steep.
  • Steve Keim, Arizona Cardinals (4 Up, 5 Down). The Cardinals made the gutsy (and smart) call in 2019 to draft Kyler Murray No. 1 overall, even after they had just traded up for and drafted Josh Rosen at No. 10 overall in 2018. In general, the Cardinals are not afraid to move up or down early in the Draft. They find themselves in the Top 10 again this year at No. 8, and while the available talent will likely be too good to pass up, I could see them fielding calls hoping a team makes an offer they can’t refuse.
  • Dave Caldwell, Jacksonville Jaguars (4 Up, 4 Down). In this year’s draft the Jaguars hold pick’s No. 9 & 20 in the first round. Furthermore, they are in the process of shopping DE Yannick Ngakoue, who many believe could land them another 1st round pick. In what appears to be a major rebuild, I could see them making a move up for a guy they believe could be a franchise player, or trying to land a handful of solid contributors with a trade back.
  • John Lynch, San Francisco 49ers (4 Up, 3 Down). It’s still pretty early in John Lynch’s tenure in San Francisco, but he has not been a stranger to Draft trades. The 49ers just acquired the No. 13 pick in the 2020 Draft from the Indianapolis Colts, giving them two first round picks (their own is No. 31). However, their next pick isn’t until the fifth round. We see teams trade up into the late first round quite often, don’t be surprised if someone else is choosing at No. 31 on Thursday.
  • Brian Gutekunst, Green Bay Packers (3 Up, 1 Down). It is very early in his tenure, but Gutekunst has certainly broken off from the traditional Packers mold, being aggressive in free agency and making big first-round Trade-Ups in his first two seasons. Gutekunst had a slam dunk Trade-Down with the Saints in 2018 that netted an extra 1st in 2019 along with pick No. 24. He promptly moved back up and nabbed Jaire Alexander at No. 18 overall. He followed that up with a move up to No. 21 in 2019 to take Darnell Savage. Long story short, Gutekunst isn’t going to just wait around for his picks.
  • Mike Mayock & Jon Gruden, Oakland Raiders (2 Up, 2 Down). While the duo has only been in Oakland for one Draft thus far, they demonstrated a clear willingness to maneuver in 2019 with four Draft trades over the course of the weekend.

There is value in moving around the Draft and becoming a friendly trade partner with various teams. You can avoid reaching on a player if you are fielding multiple trade offers from teams looking to move up. It can be beneficial if teams know you’re open for business, and perhaps the price can be driven up if teams suspect another club is on Line 2.

GMs that move Up for their favorite guys:

  • Mickey Loomis, New Orleans Saints (10 Up, 0 Down). The Saints don’t mess around in the Draft. If they like a player, they go get him. Since Drew Brees arrived in 2006, the fewest wins they’ve had in a season is 7. They clearly don’t like waiting around until their pick arrives, and Brees is too good for them to ever end up with a Top 10 pick. If you’re a team looking to move up to their spot, maybe save yourself the phone call and reach out to the team with the pick after theirs.
  • Thomas Dimitroff, Atlanta Falcons (12 Up, 3 Down). Thomas Dimitroff & Co. have followed in the footsteps of their bitter NFC South rival Saints. There are big time rumors swirling that the Falcons are looking to move up in the Draft next week for Florida CB C.J. Henderson… who would be a replacement for CB Desmond Trufant… who they traded up to No. 22 for in 2013.
  • Jon Robinson, Tennessee Titans (8 Up, 3 Down). Robinson has held his position since 2016, and in that time has been pretty aggressive in the Draft. In 2016, the Titans landed a huge haul for the No. 1 pick and the rights to Jared Goff (acquiring picks No. 15, 43, 45, 76, a future 1st, and a future 3rd). Since adding all of that capital, they’ve been going after their targets.
  • Ryan Pace, Chicago Bears (6 Up, 3 Down). Ryan Pace has been running the show in Chicago since 2015 and has made some bold moves in the Draft already during his five year tenure, including two Trade-Ups in the Top 10. The Bears don’t have any first round picks this year, so a trade-up there would be tough. Then again, they’ve also traded future Draft capital in consecutive years (a future 2nd for Anthony Miller in 2018 & a future 4th in 2019 for David Montgomery), so don’t rule it out. On the other hand, they’ve also traded down in the second round three times (landing Cody Whitehair and Tarik Cohen in the process), and have picks No. 43 and 50 in 2020. Don’t be surprised by a move in either direction.
  • Dave Gettleman, New York Giants (5 Up, 0 Down). Gettleman has served as an NFL GM for seven years with two franchises (five in Carolina, two so far in New York), and has never traded Down in either tenure. He doesn’t move much period, though, preferring to stand pat with the picks he was originally given. There are rumblings of a Giants Trade-Down from No. 4, but I wouldn’t count on it.
  • Brandon Beane, Buffalo Bills (4 Up). Beane has only held his role since 2018, so it may be too soon to reach a true conclusion. However, in the two Draft’s he has overseen in Buffalo, he has traded up four times with zero moves back. More importantly, three of these trades were in the Top 40 picks (Josh Allen at No. 7, Tremaine Edmunds at No. 16, and Cody Ford at No. 38). Beane is not afraid to pursue potential impact players.
  • Brett Veach, Kansas City Chiefs (4 Up). Veach has only been GM since 2018, so it may be more fair to put him in the “too soon to tell” category. Although he has been somewhat aggressive thus far, I think any GM with Patrick Mahomes on a rookie contract would do the same.

Trading up is risky business, as you have to “overpay” (according to the Draft Value charts) by larger amounts the higher you move. Nevertheless, clearly some of the teams on this list have had some success. No team has ever been able to consistently “beat” the Draft and outperform others year-over-year, so the thinking is the more picks the better. Eventually you’ll have to spend more in Free Agency to fill out your roster, and if you do miss on guys then you’re really toast. But, on the other end of the spectrum, a strong draft class can go a long way in catapulting a team to success.

GMs that like to move Down and stockpile Draft Capital:

  • Rick Spielman, Minnesota Vikings (9 Up, 24 Down). The Vikings prioritize getting as many dart throws as possible, which has definitely proven successful. In 2012, the Vikings traded down from No. 3 to No. 4 with the Browns. Trent Richardson ended up in Cleveland and the Vikings landed Matt Kalil. Two years later in 2014, the Browns called again looking to move up one spot from No. 9 to No. 8. Justin Gilbert ended up in Cleveland and the Vikings took Anthony Barr. One thing is for sure, if the Browns call the Vikings answer (on the first ring). New Browns HC Kevin Stefanski, formerly the Vikings OC, may throw a wrench in that wonderful operation though.
  • Bill Belichick, New England Patriots (9 Up, 22 Down). The Patriots arguably belong in the first grouping, as they move around the Draft unlike anyone else. But, as you can see, they move back more than they jump up. They also made a lot of these 9 trade-ups in recent years, presumably to keep making Super Bowl runs with Tom Brady. Now that they’re onto their next chapter, I’d expect them to get back to their stockpiling ways that led to so much long-term success in the first place.
  • John Schneider, Seattle Seahawks (8 Up, 17 Down). When you draft Russell Wilson, Kam Chancellor, and Richard Sherman all in the 3rd Round or later, what’s the point in trading up anyway?!
  • Chris Ballard, Indianapolis Colts (2 Up, 6 Down). Ballard is relatively new to his position, hired in 2017, but has already made it pretty clear that he prefers to stockpile picks. The Trade-Downs occurred much earlier than the Trade-Ups, most notably when the Colts sent pick No. 3 in 2018 to the Jets for No. 6, 37, 49 & a 2020 2nd which turned out to be pick No. 34. The players taken with those picks look quite promising thus far, perhaps inspiring more of the same from Ballard.

It is probably not a coincidence that the first three GMs in this group have all been in their positions for a decade-plus (Belichick is of course HC, but is also considered the top executive for the Patriots with significant control over personnel decisions). It’s important to point out they are also not averse to moving up to get their guy when they have conviction. They understand that in order to do so without sacrificing their shot at multiple impact players each year, it’s smart to bolster their arsenal beforehand. Trading down often allows you to trade up. They all have about a 2-1 Down-Up ratio, so the extra Draft Capital they accumulate doesn’t go to waste, and they don’t just draft fifteen 7th-rounders every year. They move back when the value isn’t there, and they pounce when they don’t want to wait any longer and risk losing a guy they’re high on.

GMs that like to stand pat:

  • Kevin Colbert, Pittsburgh Steelers (4 Up). Last year’s move to No. 10 to take Devin Bush came as a complete shock to me, as the Steelers rarely maneuver around the Draft at all. They have not traded back so far this decade, and the other three trade-ups occurred in the 3rd Round or later.
  • Mike Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (4 Up, 5 Down). The Bengals tend to work with the Draft picks given to them, and are also great at earning compensatory picks. It is important to note however, that their Trade-Down moves occur much earlier in the Draft than their Trade-Ups, if they do move at all.
  • Tom Telesco, Los Angeles Chargers (3 Up). The Chargers rarely make any Draft trades, preferring instead to sit tight. Nevertheless, there is a key detail to these three prior trade-ups for 2020 Draft purposes: all three occurred in the Top 50 picks. The one exception Telesco and the Chargers make to their no-trade approach… when they want to add a premier talent. The Chargers have been rumored to be in love with Justin Herbert, dating all the way back to 2019 before he made his decision to return to Oregon. Certainly something to keep an eye on with Detroit’s No. 3 pick.
  • Jerry & Stephen Jones, Dallas Cowboys (5 Up, 4 Down). The Cowboys have also been strong in the compensatory pick game much like the Cincinnati Bengals, and prefer to utilize their own Draft picks. They’ll make rare exceptions, but I wouldn’t count on any early-round trades in most years.
  • Marty Hurney, Carolina Panthers (3 Up, 2 Down). Hurney is now in his second stint with Carolina, and so far has continued his strategy of utilizing the Draft picks his team is awarded from the NFL. Hurney is known for his big hits in the first round, but has had a rough go of it after that. I expected a much different off-season from the Carolina Panthers with an analytics-driven approach, but that doesn’t appear to be the case so far. So, while a few months ago I would’ve predicted a Trade-Down from No. 7 to stockpile picks and kick-start a well-timed rebuild (while three Hall Of Fame QBs in their division approach retirement), I’m not sure what to expect now.
  • Bob Quinn, Detroit Lions (2 Up, 1 Down). Quinn hasn’t been super active with Draft trades since taking over in 2016.

There is nothing inherently wrong with sticking with what you were given and trusting your Big Board. The Cowboys have been very strong drafters for example, but the rest of this list has struggled a bit in the Draft from 2011-2018. You don’t want to reach for players, and that seems somewhat unavoidable if you’re unwilling to move up or down.

Too soon to tell:

  • Chris Grier, Miami Dolphins (hired 2019 season). Grier has been stockpiling picks alright, but not via the Draft. I suspect he is just getting started in Miami.
  • Eric DeCosta, Baltimore Ravens (hired 2019 season). DeCosta is a disciple of longtime Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome, but I want to see a few more Drafts from him before making any declarations. In 2019, the Ravens traded down early and then made a move up late. Newsome would have landed in the “maneuver Up & Down” category with 6 Trade-Ups to 8 Trade-Downs from 2011-2018, so DeCosta appears to have picked up where he let off.
  • Bill O’Brien (GM since 2019). While he just recently earned the title of GM, he presumably had some say in personnel decisions beforehand. Since he arrived in Houston in 2014, the Texans have traded up five times and moved back zero. I’d expect more of the same, but we’ll see.
  • Joe Douglas, New York Jets (hired 2020 season).
  • Andrew Berry, Cleveland Browns (hired 2020 season). Berry is a disciple of Sashi Brown, a.k.a. the Trade-Down King. No matter what you do with trades, you just have to scout talent better than Brown & Co. did during his time in Cleveland. If Berry can combine the smart, analytical approach of trading down with quality scouting… watch out NFL.
  • Ron Rivera, Washington Redskins (hired 2020 season).

Now that you know which Draft trade strategies you can expect from some NFL GMs, what have these trends led to in terms of increased/decreased Draft Capital over the years? While many GMs have come and gone over the course of the decade, for this research I took a look at overall team results. I broke down the Surplus Value Gained and Lost for every team from 2011-2018 according to the Jimmy Johnson, Rich Hill, Chase Stuart, and Fitzgerald-Spielberger Draft Value charts:

Draft Pick Value Gained/Lost 2011-2018 (Value as a Draft Pick # in parentheses)

The way I like to describe the difference between these first two Draft charts and the next two is this: The Jimmy Johnson and Rich Hill charts reflect the perceived trade value of each team’s Draft picks based on historical Draft trades. The Chase Stuart and Fitzgerald-Spielberger Draft charts reflect the true value of the Draft picks as players.

There are of course mixed results with any process, and at the end of the day scouting top talent is what matters most. To that end, the two best teams of the decade (Patriots & Seahawks) are No. 2 and No. 3 in Total Draft Value added per the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart. However, the worst team of the decade is also No. 1 (Browns).

The Browns only had the opportunity to be so high on this list because they routinely started with Top 5 picks in most Draft years, thus providing an opportunity to land a huge haul from QB-needy teams. Don’t be mistaken though, they also traded up to No. 3 and No. 8 over this span, selecting Trent Richardson and Justin Gilbert. Their final huge Trade-Down in 2017 was a success, netting them the No. 4 overall pick in 2018 from the Houston Texans (which they used on Denzel Ward). Unfortunately, they acquired that No. 12 pick by trading down from No. 2 with the Eagles in 2016 (Carson Wentz). And more unfortunately, that No. 12 pick was used on Deshaun Watson. Trading down is the smart move over the long run by a good margin, but you still have to hit on some of your newly acquired Draft picks.

The Draft is just five days away. Be prepared for much more chaos and the rumor mill to kick into overdrive.

Follow me on Twitter @BradOTC for analysis of every Draft trade of 2020. According to many reports, it could be a strange year for Draft trades because of the conditions surrounding COVID-19. Teams may look to unload 2020 Draft picks because they have less confidence in their player analysis as a result of far fewer Pro-Days and in-person visits. Should be interesting!

Examining NFL Draft Capital in 2019 & Looking Ahead to 2020

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While we are still a few months away from the 2020 NFL Draft, I wanted to get started on some preliminary Draft content before we hit Free Agency.

Knowing the relative Draft Capital of each team will also assist in your understanding of how Free Agency plays out. Teams will look to improve their roster through both avenues separately, but a cohesive plan that takes financial and positional considerations into account is vital to success.

What do I mean by Draft Capital? Simply, the Total Value of all Draft Picks for each team. Where am I getting the values of each pick? The Jimmy Johnson, Rich Hill and Jason Fitzgerald Draft Pick Value Charts.

Jimmy Johnson and Rich Hill effectively codified the NFL’s valuation of each draft pick based on previous draft pick trades (methodology explained here). Jason valued the draft picks based on the historical Second Contract outcomes of draft picks (methodology explained here). The Rich Hill rankings most closely resemble what NFL teams believe they have in Draft Capital. The Fitzgerald rankings most closely demonstrate what teams truly have in Draft Capital.

Here are Jimmy Johnson’s Chart Values:

Here are Rich Hill’s Chart Values:

Finally, here is the Jason Fitzgerald Draft Value Chart:

Let’s look at the Arizona Cardinals as an example. The Arizona Cardinals have the No. 8, No. 40, No. 72, No. 111, No. 153, and No. 222 Draft picks for 2020. You can find their Total Draft Capital by simply adding up the Values associated with those draft picks for each chart.

According to the Jimmy Johnson chart, Arizona has a Draft Capital of 2235 points. According to Rich Hill, Arizona has a Draft Capital of 662 points. Finally, according to Jason Fitzgerald’s chart, Arizona has a Draft Capital of 4736 points.

But what do these random numbers tell us? Not much without context. One way to make Draft Capital more approachable is to look at the Value as a percent of the Total Draft Pick Pool.

With 32 teams, an exactly equal distribution of all 256 Draft Picks would come out to 3.125% of the Draft Pick Pool per team. For the Jimmy Johnson chart, 2235 points is 3.68% of the Total Draft Pick Pool. So according to Jimmy Johnson, Arizona has slightly more Draft Capital than the average team. For Rich Hill, that percentage decreases slightly to 3.6%, but Arizona remains above average. Finally, for Jason Fitzgerald, that percentage moves across the 3.125% line to 3.09%. Jason’s chart believes Arizona has less Draft Capital than the standard average.

This approach still has its limitations, as each Draft is different. To take it one step further, how Arizona’s Draft Capital stacks up against the other teams in the league is the truly critical information.

The below table illustrates the 2020 Draft Capital for every team according to Jimmy Johnson, Rich Hill, and Jason Fitzgerald’s Draft Value Charts. The far right column shows the difference in perceived value between Rich Hill and Jason Fitzgerald.

The above chart shows the 2020 Draft Capital for every team, including our Compensatory Pick guru Nick Korte’s projected compensatory picks for 2020.

Based on our analysis of every draft pick trade from 2011-2019, the Rich Hill Values most closely resemble what NFL teams are currently using to facilitate draft pick trades. The biggest disparities between Rich Hill’s chart and Jason Fitzgerald’s chart can largely be explained by the NFL overvaluing top draft picks and greatly undervaluing second and third round picks.

The Ravens (+11), Broncos (+9) and Eagles (+9) being the three teams that the Fitzgerald Chart valued the most as compared to the Rich Hill Chart is entirely unsurprising. The Ravens have earned the most compensatory picks of any franchise in the NFL since compensatory picks were created, and they trade down very often. The Broncos traded down from No. 10 to No. 20 with the Steelers just last year in a great trade for Denver in which they added a 2020 3rd Round pick. And the Eagles have embraced analytical decision-making in all facets of football as much or more than any other NFL team.

So what can we do with this information? Let’s take a look at 2019 Draft Capital before the Draft began…

There were 37 “draft pick trades” (exclusively draft picks exchanging hands) during the 2019 NFL Draft. Another very unsurprising development: smart teams trade down a lot. It is no coincidence that the teams that traded down three or more times in 2019 were: the LA Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks. Now I know one of these is not like the other, but the Raiders maneuvered around the 2019 Draft exceptionally well.

2019 NFL Draft Trades by Team

These trades obviously occurred all throughout the draft, and the amount of value exchanging hands for a trade in the 1st Round is a lot different than one in the 6th Round. Here is the breakdown of the Draft Value that teams Gained or Lost:

As noted before, these Values don’t mean much in a vacuum. So, I converted the values back into the respective Draft Pick they equate to on each chart. For example, as you can see above the Atlanta Falcons Lost 648 points with their 3 Trade-Ups according to the Jason Fitzgerald chart. 648 points on the Fitzgerald chart equates to the No. 87 overall pick. The Rich Hill chart has the Falcons Loss at 9 points, which equates to pick No. 164. In contrast, the Jimmy Johnson chart has the Falcons Gain 30.6 points, which equates to the No. 151 pick.

Here is the same 2019 Draft Pick Trade Summary chart as above, except with the Values as Draft Picks:

The Falcons example perfectly demonstrates the dangers of relying on the Jimmy Johnson Draft Pick Chart, which teams still appear to consult to varying degrees based on analysis of Draft Pick trades from 2011-2019. Calculating these Gains & Losses using the Values derived from Fitzgerald’s research of the historical outcomes of Draft Picks, the Falcons gave up a 3rd Round pick in Total Draft Capital through moving up three times. Calculating these Gains & Losses using an arbitrary point system with no known connection to data, the Falcons ADDED a 5th Round pick in Total Draft Capital according to the Jimmy Johnson chart. This disconnect can create tremendous value opportunities for smart teams, and it already has for some. Even when comparing Gains & Losses with the Rich Hill Chart (an update & improvement of the Jimmy Johnson Chart) there are still some large gaps in valuation.

The Falcons didn’t give up the most value according to the Fitzgerald chart though. That honor was reserved for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who made the biggest Trade-Up of 2019 from No. 20 (+ No. 52, + a 2020 3rd) to No. 10 to select Devin Bush. As you can see above, the Steelers clearly must at least look at the Jimmy Johnson Draft Value chart. I say this because according to the Jimmy Johnson chart, the Steelers and Broncos made a trade that was exactly equal in value for both parties. This is extremely rare for trades in the first two or three rounds. However, Jason Fitzgerald’s data tells us the Steelers gave up value equivalent to the No. 40 overall pick with the package they sent to Denver to move to No. 10. Rich Hill’s chart goes even further and actually tells the Steelers they won the trade and added value equivalent to the No. 100 overall pick. Imagine two NFL Draft war rooms wherein both teams thought they made out like absolute bandits in a trade. That is often the reality! The Jimmy Johnson & Rich Hill charts severely over-inflate the value of top picks and even more severely undervalue second and third round picks. That’s exactly what happened here.

One final component on display with the Steelers & Broncos trade that explains the large disparity: the future pick the Steelers included, a 2020 3rd. The analysis of trades from 2011-2019 seemed to confirm a long-held belief about perceived value in NFL Draft trades. The notion that when teams trade a future draft pick in the following year, they devalue the future pick by one round. For example, the 2020 3rd in this trade was treated as a mid-4th Round pick (No. 112) for the purposes of running this trade through the Johnson and/or Hill calculator to get as close to equal value as possible.

This methodology of devaluing future picks to the middle of the following round (No. 48, No. 80, No. 112, No. 144, No. 176, No. 208, No. 240) is imperfect for a few reasons, but still provided consistent results throughout the sample. First, teams don’t know if they will win the Super Bowl or have the No. 1 overall pick any given year (some may have better ideas than others over a stretch, but parity is real in the NFL). Second, compensatory picks make the length of the 3rd-7th Rounds different every year (Supplemental Draft pick usage can take a pick away from a team as well). Nevertheless, the Johnson and Hill charts have a much steeper decline in Draft Pick Value after the 1st Round than the Fitzgerald chart.

The “Rank” columns above really drive the point home: Jason Fitzgerald’s chart shows the Steelers gave up the most Draft Capital of anyone in 2019 through their big trade-up. Meanwhile, the Rich Hill chart tells the Steelers they added the second-most Draft Capital in the league. In their defense, and to play Devils Advocate a bit, if all of the other teams use the Jimmy Johnson and/or Rich Hill chart too then this isn’t that cut and dry. However, we know that the Fitzgerald Draft Values are based on actual data and are thus far more informative and predictive. For those that are fans of the Chase Stuart AV Draft Pick Value chart using Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric, the Fitzgerald chart and Stuart chart are very similar.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Seahawks effectively added another 1st Round pick (No. 33 overall) with their series of Trade-Downs. The Seahawks traded back from their first spot of the night, No. 21 overall, and kept moving back to stockpile picks. Here is where every team started the Draft in terms of Draft Capital and where they stood by the end:

Future draft picks that were not accounted for in the Draft Capital before the Draft began were of course introduced, which makes this chart imperfect. But there aren’t many high priced future draft picks (especially when you devalue them all by a round) exchanging hands in a given Draft, so the impact is not too large. The Seahawks started the Draft with the 25th-most Draft Capital according to Jason Fitzgerald and ended it with the 7th-most, and they didn’t acquire any future picks. So within the 2019 Draft itself, the Seahawks were able to go from the bottom-third to the top-third in Draft Capital. How do you have a winning record for eight straight seasons? Well, there’s part of your answer.

I will be updating the 2020 Draft Capital as trades unfold throughout the offseason until the NFL Draft on April 23rd.

By: Brad Spielberger (@BradOTC)

Introducing Our NFL Draft Research Book: A Pre-Screening Offer for NFL Teams & Affiliated Parties

We are excited to announce the debut of a small research book that focuses on the successes and failures in the modern NFL draft:

The Drafting Stage – Creating a Marketplace for NFL Draft Picks

Written by: Brad Spielberger & Jason Fitzgerald 

If you work in/are affiliated with the NFL and are interested in receiving an electronic copy of the book, please email Brad at bradspielberger@gmail.com

The concept for the research was to use NFL salary data to retroactively grade every draft selection from 2011 through 2015 following the conclusion of their rookie contracts, and to use that data to better project the value of each future draft selection. To the best of our knowledge nobody has used this type of metric to value draft selections, as most other papers have dealt with inputs like “years making a pro bowl,” or “games started” to value the contribution and talent level of a draft pick in the NFL. Nothing is more all-encompassing, in our opinion, than the ultimate salary of a player, which should be reflective of every aspect of the player’s game.  

We extended the study to go beyond just the typical “draft pick values” that are usually derived from draft analysis work. In the book we touch on the following: 

  • Assessing every draft pick trade outcome from 2011 to 2015, by round, to determine who was the ultimate “winner and loser” based on the financial outcomes of the trade 
  • Developing Tiers based on a player’s salary to better identify the probabilities of finding a superstar, starter, backup, or replacement level player in the draft based on the draft round and position played 
  • Creating a system to evaluate contracts fairly and independent of position to better illustrate the value that can be found based on position influenced drafting 
  • Examining the success rates and selection rates by position to provide better information on when to strike on a specific position in the draft 
  • Providing some context to the idea of finding “ten-year starters” in the draft through examining the actual outcomes of every draft pick selected during the draft years that were studied  
  • Identifying the typical range and price of free agent talent available to better plan what positions should perhaps be given additional weight in the draft 

Team Building Notes for the NFL Draft

I wanted to just give you guys some notes to consider when watching the draft. When considering what your team should do with its draft picks, it’s important to understand some of the thoughts behind these picks and the things that impact the decisions a team should be making.

Continue reading Team Building Notes for the NFL Draft »

Valuing the NFL Draft Picks

So every year around draft time I usually like to try to take some different looks at draft values. The best received one was using the PFR AV scores for rookies as a baseline to compare against veterans and then translating that to a salary expectation. This would be a rolling scale since each year the draft changes its salary. Rather than rehashing the same stuff this time around I wanted to go with a “wisdom of the crowds” system by letting the actual NFL contract negotiators past decisions set our new values for the draft. Continue reading Valuing the NFL Draft Picks »

#CBA2020: Replace The NFL Draft With An Auction

Saw Mike Silver from NFL Network and Sports Illustrated tweeting about the idea of abolishing the draft in a conversation about the Joey Bosa situation. My first reaction to this was that this could make teams have to pay more than the current draft positions dictate as they could be forced to pay closer to fair market value for a player. I decided to take some notes and explore that idea.

Continue reading #CBA2020: Replace The NFL Draft With An Auction »

@ZackMooreNFL’s 1st Round Review and 2nd Round Preview!

This will be more of a discussion of what the teams did positionally, rather than a debate on the player himself. We don’t know why certain teams drafted certain players because we don’t have all of that information available to us, but we can see what needs and positions teams should address.

I’m going to take the approach of saying the thing I like most and the think I dislike about these picks, so we can look at both sides of the pick, the potential positives and negatives. I’ll try to understand why a team did something, but also show the potential negatives about the pick.

As always, if you like what I’m doing and this kind of analysis, e-mail me at Caponomics@gmail.com if you’re interested in getting on the e-mail list and receiving our first chapter of the 2000 Ravens that we released last week! Tweet me @ZackMooreNFL to discuss the draft tonight!

  • Bucs: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

Draft picks: Round 2 (34), Round 3 (65), Round 4 (109), Round 5 (162), Round 5 (168), Round 6 (184), Round 7 (218)

Like: There’s not a lot to like about this pick to dislike. The Bucs have the receivers to be a great passing offense, they have some defensive pieces, and if they draft a tackle in the second round, they’re really moving in the right direction. You just can’t pass up the franchise quarterback when you have a chance to get him.

Dislike: Was Mike Glennon that bad? Regardless, if you can take the guy who you think will be your franchise quarterback, you take him. Plus, your hope is that you won’t be in position to make this kind of pick next year. Now that you have Winston, next year’s draft picks can be the kinds of players that will be more available in the middle of the first round. Defensive linemen, cornerbacks, offensive linemen, maybe a third receiver. So yes, there isn’t much at all to dislike about this if the Bucs did their due diligence.

Moving Forward: Draft a potential left tackle of the future in the second round. Draft one of these great running backs in the third round. They need to have a great running game to let Winston grow into his role as a franchise quarterback. I’m a firm believer that, to be successful, young quarterbacks need a strong running game behind them that will help them as they grow into a bigger role. Once the QB is on his second and third contract and being paid as the franchise quarterback, that’s when the offense needs to be a pass-first offense, but until then, the team should take advantage of his low cap hit to use that money to build a strong running game and defense.

  • Titans: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Draft picks: Round 2 (33), Round 3 (66), Round 4 (100), Round 5 (138), Round 6 (177), Round 6 (208)

Like: I heard a shocking stat last night that the Titans only have one quarterback since 2003 who has started 16 games, Matt Hasselbeck in 2011. The 11 years of distress at the position solidified the believe in me that they should take Mariota and develop the system to his talents. I’ve always thought he’s a great athlete, player and person, those are three things that lead me to believe that he’s the kind of kid you can trust will help you win in the NFL. He’s got a good work ethic and he had 105 touchdowns to only 14 interceptions in college, one interception every 83 passes, that’s good enough for me. They also did enough in free agency to build a team around him that can have success.

Dislike: Again, nothing, this is the guy they should have picked for the face of their franchise. The only other option that made sense was Leonard Williams because they don’t have great interior linemen, but a Marcus Mariota is harder to find than a Leonard Williams.

Moving Forward: I know they could use defensive help, but I would draft a running back with the 33rd pick. I keep going back to him, but Jay Ajayi would be perfect. They can’t just have Bishop Sankey back there with Shonn Greene, that’s not a one-two punch that makes defenses nervous. You put Ajayi and Sankey and you have yourself a dynamic running back tandem that will allow Mariota, like I said about Winston, grow into his role as the franchise quarterback. I wouldn’t be against a lineman pick early in the second round to, like with Winston, protect that franchise QB. If they’re looking for interior line help, the third round is where they’ll find more value.

  • Jaguars: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida

Draft picks: Round 2 (36), Round 3 (67), Round 4 (103), Round 5 (139), Round 6 (180), Round 7 (220)

Like: Fowler is exactly who I thought the Jaguars should take for Gus Bradley’s defense. He’s going to help create havoc on a defensive front seven that is just silly now. They’ve done such a good job all over the field improving this offseason and Fowler is just another fit.

Dislike: Again, nothing. This is the perfect fit for them and he’ll be the LEO in their scheme.

Moving Forward: Running back with the 36th pick whether it’s Jay Ajayi or Duke Johnson. If they don’t go that route, go with an offensive linemen as there are quite a few tackles left who could be great for them or, if they think Justin Blackmon is done, give Bortles another passing weapon outside. They did enough work on defense this offseason to wait until a later round.

  • Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

Draft picks: Round 2 (35), Round 3 (68), Round 4 (102), Round 5 (140), Round 6 (179), Round 7 (221)

Like: This gives Derek Carr a legitimate #1 WR to grow with along the rest of his career. He’s a WR whose floor, I believe, is a solid starter in the NFL for a decade. His ceiling is one of the best receivers of all-time. If you have an opportunity to draft him, I’ve got to support that.

Dislike: They just signed Michael Crabtree and James Jones the offseason before. Andre Holmes has also developed into a nice player for them. They could have gone elsewhere, but Cooper’s talents were too much to pass up.

Moving Forward: Offensive line to solidify a line that will protect Carr and must open up holes for their running backs or the defensive backfield with one of the good athletes that will be available at the top of this round. Some say that they need help at running back, I don’t think they do with Richardson, Murray and Helu, but it’s up to the Raiders to decide if they trust that group enough. If they have any doubts, draft a running back of the future in the second or third round. I know I keep repeating this, but young quarterbacks, I believe, need a great running game and a solid defense to help them grow into the role they’ll have once their contract figures start become bigger and the team transitions into pass-first mode. With a young quarterback, running the football and defense help mitigate that risk and help him grow into his role as the franchise quarterback. Almost all of the Super Bowl teams that I’ve studied who have QBs on their rookie deals had this formula. I think it’s key to do this with Carr.

  • Redskins: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa

Draft picks: Round 2 (38), Round 3 (69), Round 4 (105), Round 5 (141), Round 6 (182), Round 7 (222)

Like: The Redskins needed a lineman of any kind, offensive or defensive, they just needed a lineman. Scherff fits a need for them and he was touted as the best offensive linemen in the draft.

Dislike: Nothing, another sound pick. You could argue that they should have taken Williams here, but you won’t hear any complaints out of me. Scherff should be a starter for them for a long-time.

Moving Forward: They handled a few of their main issues in free agency and if RG3 returns to form in some way, they have a team that can compete. What they’re going to need on offense are a WR3 and a pass-catching running back or an all-around back to pair with Alfred Morris and take the load off. On the defensive side of the football, look at one of the defensive linemen or outside linebackers available early in the second like Eli Harold, Preston Smith, Jordan Phillips, or Randy Gregory.

  • Jets: Leonard Williams, DT/DE, USC

Draft picks: Round 2 (37), Round 3 (70), Round 4 (104), Round 7 (223), Round 7 (224)

Like: The Jets got the best player on the board here. He’s only 20-years-old and he can be a dominant player for the next decade. Although this is the sixth pick, he might be the best value pick of the first round considering that he was the best player on everyone’s board.

Dislike: It’s at a position where they have a ton of great players, but defensive linemen are always going down

Moving Forward: Build you team in that 2000 Ravens image, great rushing attack, great defense. I would draft Bryce Petty or Brett Hundley in the second or third round as the quarterback of the future, but outside of that, continue to assemble a team that can run the football to make up for QB inefficiencies and play great defense.

  • Bears: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

Draft picks: Round 2 (39), Round 3 (71), Round 4 (106), Round 5 (142), Round 6 (183)

Like: They immediately replaced Brandon Marshall and addressed a huge need for them.

Dislike: Nothing, good pick, exactly who I would have chosen here.

Moving Forward: I would almost just draft defensive players the rest of the way. Sprinkle in a WR3 candidate and you’re improving where you need to.

  • Falcons: Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson

Draft picks: Round 2 (42), Round 3 (73), Round 4 (107), Round 5 (146), Round 6 (185), Round 7 (225), Round 7 (249)

Like: This is exactly what their strength is going to be under Quinn, defense. I love the move to go with what you want to do as a franchise. A key to being a Super Bowl champion is knowing who you are and who you want to be, the Falcons have an identity now and they have a great offense to build it with.

Dislike: Nothing. This is who I would have chosen here, but they did add quite a few players like Beasley this offseason in O’Brien Schofield, Adrian Clayborn, and Brooks Reed, although Beasley will be a franchise player.

Moving Forward: Running back. They were 24th in the NFL last season rushing the football and Steven Jackson is gone. If Maxx Williams or Clive Walford are available, they’ve got to take one of them, preferably Williams, ESPN mentions that their 214 receiving yards from their tight ends last year was the least in the NFL. That’s not acceptable after the kind of role that Tony Gonzalez had in that offense, completely changed the dynamic of the offense.

  • Giants: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami

Draft picks: Round 2 (40), Round 3 (74), Round 4 (108), Round 5 (144), Round 6 (186), Round 7 (226), Round 7 (245)

Like: They got a position of need and they got a player who they can count on at the position. I think Flowers’ floor is a good starting right tackle, which is a great addition to the Giants who are searching for the man to replace David Diehl

Dislike: A lot of people agree that this is a little high to draft Flowers, but the Giants can’t decide where they’re drafting and some say the Rams were very interested in Flowers, so who knows, the pundits may have been wrong.

Moving Forward: Landon Collins. The Giants need safety help and the best one in the draft might just fall to them at #40. Denzel Perryman is my second option here as I believe ILB is a huge need for them with Beason’s injury history and general inefficient play at the position last year. One thing that bothers me is that Beason and McClain are their 7th and 8th highest cap hits, both inside linebackers, because of this, I think they hold off on drafting an ILB until later in the draft.

If someone snaps Collins up, or they decide they don’t want an ILB, then I wouldn’t be opposed to them drafting Devin Smith who could help until Victor Cruz is 100% and could be a difference maker down the stretch for them and eventually replace Rueben Randle unless he improves. Jaelen Strong or Dorial Green-Beckham, who would be a steal here talent-wise, are two great options. I wouldn’t be opposed to Maxx Williams or Clive Walford either here.

  • Rams: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

Draft picks: Round 2 (41), Round 3 (72), Round 4 (119), Round 6 (215), Round 7 (227)

Like: Love the idea of a Tre Mason/Todd Gurley backfield, love it. Really going to provide them with a one-two punch that will create the kind of run-first, defensive team in the image of the 2000 Ravens model. With some of their best players returning from injury this year and improvements, they will continue to compete in the toughest division in football. I like the idea of them building a team similar to the Seahawks as well.

Dislike: They could have drafted an offensive lineman now and a running back later and gotten more value out of the picks considering the talents, but they can still get a guard in the third round, which is probably their biggest need.

Moving Forward: Draft a potential WR1 in the second round in Devin Smith or Jaelen Strong. I would stay away from Dorial Green-Beckham because he is from St. Louis, admittedly, I don’t know anything about him other than his college troubles, but like Aaron Hernandez, sometimes taking a hometown player with issues can be a recipe for disaster. Wait until the third round and draft a guard or center who can replace Scott Wells or Davin Joseph.

  • Vikings: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

Draft picks: Round 2 (45), Round 3 (76), Round 4 (110), Round 5 (137), Round 7 (228), Round 7 (232)

Like: Just who I thought they would go with if they liked him enough to pass up a lineman. Trae Waynes is a great pick for them and gives them two potentially shut down corners with Xavier Rhodes.

Dislike: Nothing. It’s who I would have taken.

Moving Forward: If Adrian Peterson is not in your plans, then you need a player who can give you the kind of running and pass-catching that Norv Turner’s offense was famous for in San Diego. Like I’ve said, you need a great running game to help a young quarterback grow into his role as the franchise player, so if Peterson’s gone, Asiata and McKinnon are not enough. With the right pieces, Teddy Bridgewater can be a Russell Wilson kind of player, just with less running, but that similar style of mobility that can beat you for first downs. If Ajayi or Yeldon are available here, they’d be great players for the Vikings if Peterson’s gone or even if Peterson’s still there, but going to be cut after 2015. David Cobb would be a nice pick later. If someone like TJ Clemmings is there, take him.

  • Browns: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington

Draft picks: Round 2 (43), Round 3 (77), Round 4 (111), Round 4 (115), Round 5 (147), Round 6 (189), Round 6 (202), Round 7 (229)

 

Like: Fills a need for them. A buddy of mine who is a Browns fan called this pick weeks ago and explained the logic behind it, a very sound move.

Dislike: Nothing, good value here at #12. They want to build a run-first offense and a great defense, then this is a good place to start.

Moving Forward: If a true WR1 is available, that’d be nice, but with the kind of team they should be looking to build, they will need better running backs than West and Crowell. Maxx Williams, Clive Walford, Nick O’Leary or Jeff Heuerman are options for them because of the need at tight end. Williams and Walford would be good second round picks, while the other two in the third.

An ESPN mock has them taking Jaelen Strong, while I think TE is a bigger need, especially for the offense I want them to build, Strong would be a great value at 43.

  • Saints: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

Draft picks: Round 2 (44), Round 3 (75), Round 3 (78), Round 5 (148), Round 5 (154), Round 6 (187), Round 7 (230)

Like: He’s a freak, an absolute specemin and he’s Stanford educated, so he’s smart.

Dislike: A friend of mine referred to him as a house cat, but I don’t know enough about him to speak to that. I think he should be a good player for them and it was certainly a need here.

Moving Forward: Bryce Petty would be a fantastic value in the second round and fits into the Saints offense. Speedsters who could replace the Kenny Stills deep ball position are Devin Smith and Sammie Coates. With Jimmy Graham gone, they need a TE as well, so Maxx Williams and Clive Walford are second round options, while O’Leary, Funchess and Heuerman are third round options.

  • Dolphins: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville

Draft picks: Round 2 (47), Round 4 (114), Round 5 (149), Round 5 (150), Round 6 (191)

Like: This could give them a legitimate #1 WR and allow Landry to stay in the slot, where he can serve the team best. This gives Tannehill a young receiver who he can grow with and build chemistry with throughout his career, so I like that reliability.

Dislike: Landry, Stills and Jennings are all already there with Jordan Cameron at tight end. While the pick makes sense, they were the 31st pass blocking team and 27th run-blocking team in the NFL last season according to PFF. They could’ve certainly used an upgrade. They have so many other needs that I thought this was a pick where they choose what they wanted rather than what they needed. With those four legitimate pass-catchers, it reminds me why the Patriots are the Patriots and other franchises aren’t. I fully understand that Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, Donnie Avery or Brandon Lloyd are nowhere near what Parker is, but the Dolphins don’t have enough draft picks to get something they want and still know they’re covering what they need. I said in my mock that they needed a WR4 that could compete, I thought that Tre McBride, Stefon Diggs, Dezmin Lewis, Deontay Greenberry and Vince Mayle all fall into that category and would have allowed them to handle their needs early on.

Moving Forward: Got to get a running back, a cornerback and an offensive lineman. Without a third round pick, I don’t know what they should do in the second round. They have to decide who the best player available at one of those positions is and go from there. What I think is going to happen is they sign a free agent at running back like Knowshon Moreno as Lamar Miller is the starter, and a good one, so it’s less of a need. Pierre Thomas is also available and he would give them an added dimension. If Jalen Collins or Eric Rowe are available, I’d take them.

  • Chargers: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

Draft picks: Round 2 (48), Round 3 (83), Round 4 (117), Round 5 (153), Round 6 (192)

Like: I like that they went and got their guy, a running back who can add a dimension to their offense that they didn’t have last year. This is certainly a need for them and Melvin Gordon is my favorite running back in the draft.

Dislike: They could have gotten a running back later, while giving Rivers a legitimate WR1, which I don’t think they have. This is a pass-first offense, it’s by design considering Rivers’ cap hit, but I like Melvin Gordon too much to be upset with this pick. I’m just such a believer in value based drafting that I thought a later selection at running back would have worked out okay, although I can’t fault them in any way for getting the guy they wanted.

Moving Forward: If Devin Smith, Jaelen Strong, Dorial Green-Beckham or Sammie Coates are available, they would be good picks at 48. If they want to wait until later Justin Hardy, Jamison Crowder, Tre McBride and Rashad Greene are favorites of mine. Jordan Phillips would be a great nost tackle in this defense, while Grady Jarrett and Carl Davis are other options.

  • Texans: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

Draft picks: Round 2 (51), Round 3 (82), Round 4 (116), Round 5 (152), Round 5 (175), Round 6 (195), Round 6 (211), Round 6 (216), Round 7 (235)

Like: Kevin Johnson might be the best cover corner in this draft and will replace Jonathan Joseph when he leaves in free agency after the season.

Dislike: I initially believes that safety was more of a need, thus didn’t understand the pick, but after learning of Joseph’s contract, I understand it and agree with it. Gives him a year to improve before becoming the starter.

Moving Forward: The Texans need a tight end. If Maxx Williams or Clive Walford are available, then that should probably be the move and I like the idea of Devin Funchess as well. If Landon Collins is available at 51, then they get the guy I thought they’d get in the first round and have gotten Kevin Johnson, so a win-win. Running back is the other option here with Ajayi, Duke Johnson or Abdullah. David Johnson could be a third or fourth round pick

  • 49ers: Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon

Draft picks: Round 2 (46), Round 3 (79), Round 4 (126), Round 4 (132), Round 5 (151), Round 6 (190), Round 7 (246), Round 7 (254)

Like: They got the guy I thought they should get. He has the potential to be a real game-changing athlete and fortify that defensive line immediately.

Dislike: Nothing, he’s the guy I would have taken.

Moving Forward: They need to replace Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox who left in free agency, so Kevin White, Steven Nelson, Alex Carter, Eric Rowe and Quinten Rollins are all options in the second or, more likely for the 49ers, the third round is where they should take one of them. They need a RB2 for the future with Carlos Hyde, so that’s something I might take a little later since Reggie Bush is there this season. Inside linebacker could be the biggest need with the retirement of Willis and Borland, so Perryman, Kendricks, or McKinney should be taken if they’re there in the second round.

  • Chiefs: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Draft picks: Round 2 (49), Round 3 (80), Round 3 (98), Round 4 (118), Round 5 (172), Round 5 (173), Round 6 (193), Round 6 (217), Round 7 (233)

Like: It certainly fills a need, so hopefully they can control him.

Dislike: This guy was arguably the best cornerback in college football and the best player on his team, yet he was such a problem that he got kicked off the team?

Moving Forward: Wide receiver, tackle and inside linebacker are three needs. It’s up to them the order they want to address those needs. If they want a slot receiver, Locker, Hardy or Crowder will be available later, so they could hit on either a tackle or inside linebacker here.

  • Browns: Cameron Erving, G/C, Florida State

Like: He has versatility and many say he’s the kind of guy who can be a Pro Bowler almost immediately. He’s a great player. Just like Ozzie Newsome says, they tried to hit a double here and got themselves a great player.

Dislike: Again, nothing.

Moving Forward: Refer to what I wrote above for the Browns.

  • Eagles: Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

Draft picks: Round 2 (52), Round 3 (84), Round 4 (113), Round 5 (145), Round 5 (156), Round 6 (196), Round 7 (237)

Like: Everything about this is perfect. Nelson Agholor is Jeremy Maclin 2.0, he’s almost the same exact player, so the Eagles essentially let Maclin walk in free agency when the price got too high and replaced him with someone who will be on a rookie deal (that he will outplay), and do the exact same kind of things.

Dislike: Nothing at all.

Moving Forward: I’d draft Bryce Petty or Brett Hundley. Two guys who fit into their offensive scheme and could be inexpensive, but exactly what this team with a strong running game needs. Could provide them with a cap hit that’s low, this allowing them to build a strong team around them.

  • Bengals: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M

Draft picks: Round 2 (53), Round 3 (85), Round 3 (99), Round 4 (120), Round 4 (135), Round 5 (157), Round 6 (197), Round 7 (238)

Like: They’ve got a great athlete at a position of need who could have been drafted even higher if he didn’t get injured this season.

Dislike: Nothing, a good pick for the Bengals for a player who can eventually replace Andrew Whitworth.

Moving Forward: They need a WR who can give them more than their current WR3’s and step up when Green or Sanu go down. They also could need a tight end as they haven’t resigned Jermaine Gresham yet, but Tyler Eifert should be their tight end of the future, so the TE they grab should be later in the draft if they don’t plan on resigning Gresham. They should also get a third running back later in the draft, they can’t afford to have just one running back if Hill or Bernard go down with the Dalton at QB. Cornerback, safety, defensive end and outside linebacker are four positions I could see them taking in the third round if they don’t draft a WR.

  • Steelers: Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky

Draft picks: Round 2 (56), Round 3 (87), Round 4 (121), Round 5 (160), Round 6 (199), Round 6 (212), Round 7 (239)

 

Like: The Steelers were 26th in the NFL in sacks last season, which is unheard of for them. Bud Dupree has a great attitude and is a great athlete, because of that he will be fine. To paraphrase Ozzie Newsome, the Steelers tried to hit a double here, rather than a home run. Dupree is a sure thing as a starter in my opinion.

Dislike: I feel like safety and cornerback are bigger needs for them and that Dupree is one of those guys who has moved his way up draft boards during the process because of things other than his abilities.

Moving Forward: Another team who I could see taking a tight end. If Williams or Walford aren’t there, then wait for later and draft a cornerback or safety here. Eric Rowe, Landon Collins, PJ Williams, Jalen Collins are all option.

  • Broncos: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri

Draft picks: Round 2 (59), Round 3 (92), Round 4 (133), Round 5 (143), Round 5 (164), Round 6 (203), Round 7 (250), Round 7 (251), Round 7 (252)

Like: Not much. Can Shane Ray be a great player? Sure and he fulfills a need for the Broncos, but too many red flag to justify the trade last night in my opinion.

Dislike: They just traded up, traded away Manny Ramirez, an offensive linemen when I see OL at one of their biggest needs, to take a guy who doesn’t have the self control to not get caught with marijuana during the week of the NFL Draft. So now, Shane Ray is going to the state where you can legally get weed almost anywhere and he’s going to have the self-control to not partake in this drug when it’s legal?

Ramirez didn’t have the best season last year, but he was versatile to play over 500 snaps at center and right guard. That kind of versatility is of tremendous value in the NFL.

Moving Forward: OFFENSIVE LINE. The Broncos need an offensive line. A huge reason Peyton Manning has been such a legendary quarterback is that for much of his career, I’ve been watching a guy who has consistently had the cleanest jersey on the field. Granted that they did grab Shelley Smith and Gino Gradkowski in free agency, I think they need more. I believe you can never have too much depth on the line. I want to see them draft a safety at some point, plus receiver and tight end are big needs for this offense. A Peyton Manning offense needs weapons everywhere and they don’t have enough at receiver and tight end yet. I like Justin Hardy, Jamison Crowder, Rashad Greene, Jeff Heuerman, Maxx Williams, CJ Uzomah, and Dezmin Lewis. Remember, Emmanuel Sanders can play inside and outside and they have Cody Lattimer who they believe can be a player, but still, let’s get a little bit talent in the group.

Devin Funchess could be a sneaky second round pick that they could develop into the next Julius Thomas-style tight end. He will have a lot to learn as a blocker, but his size and abilities could make him an incredible tight end. He will probably be available in the third round, so I’d take him there, unless the Broncos believe he has what it takes to be that kind of player, then he could be worth it. (I’d probably look for a more sure thing in the second round rather than a project with potential.)

  • Cardinals: DJ Humphries, OT, Florida

Draft picks: Round 2 (55), Round 3 (86), Round 4 (123), Round 5 (159), Round 6 (198), Round 7 (241), Round 7 (256)

Like: They needed an offensive lineman more than any other position that makes sense here, although have drafted a cornerback to replace Cromartie.

Dislike: A good move for them, but Byron Jones could have given this defense the kind of athletic versatile defensive back they need in it.

Moving Forward: ESPN mentions that their 35 sacks since 2010 were their lowest sack total since 2010. They think they should draft OLB, Hau’oli Kikaha from Washington. He was college football’s sack leader, so I can’t disagree with that one. If they don’t draft him and their guy at running back is available, that’s another option. If neither of those, then Eric Rowe would be a great pick.

  • Panthers: Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington

Draft picks: Round 2 (57), Round 3 (89), Round 4 (124), Round 5 (161), Round 5 (169), Round 5 (174), Round 6 (201), Round 7 (242)

Like: Shaq Thompson is going to be a very, very versatile player for them and will be a lot of fun to watch.

Dislike: No one had him projected to go in the first round, I wouldn’t be surprised if they could have gotten him in the second round and have instead drafted a receiver or a lineman for Cam Newton.

Moving Forward: They still need a WR2, RB2 who can hopefully outplay Stewart and an OT. ESPN mentions they should take Mario Edwards Jr. here due to Greg Hardy’s departure and because Charles Johnson could be come a cap casualty due to his huge contract and deals coming soon for Kuechly and Newton, so I can’t disagree with that, but that means those three big needs are still there. They did add Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin, so that helps, so if they don’t draft Edwards, then Jay Ajayi, Duke Johnson, Ameer Abdullah, Sammie Coates, Devin Smith, and Dorial Green-Beckham are all options. If they draft a receiver, David Cobb or Matt Jones are good late RB options.

  • Ravens: Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF

Draft picks: Round 2 (58), Round 3 (90), Round 4 (122), Round 4 (125), Round 4 (136), Round 5 (158), Round 5 (171), Round 5 (176), Round 6 (204)

Like: I like everything about this move, this is exactly how great organizations draft. Per my article titled “The Ravens Way,” they’re masters at replacing more expensive or aging pieces with guys who fit what they’re trying to do. Ozzie Newsome has also coined the awesome phrase of “looking to hit doubles” in the first round rather than home runs. It’s all about getting guys who fit what you do and who you know have high floors, guys who will, at the least, be a starter for you. Perriman fits this mold and gives Flacco a tremendous deep threat with his 4.2 speed.

Dislike: Perriman drops the ball a ton, but because he fits the Torrey Smith role so perfectly, I can’t dislike it too much. I do think they could have

Moving Forward: ESPN’s second round mock again gives us a great opinion. Ameer Abdullah would be absolutely perfect for this offense! Fits the exact Ray Rice/Justin Forsett mold that the Ravens offense is perfect for. If they don’t draft him, then a cornerback could be needed and a running back could certainly be drafted later in this class. If they get Abdullah, then a cornerback like Kevin White or Alex Carter will hopefully be there in the third round for them.

  • Cowboys: Byron Jones, CB, UConn

Draft picks: Round 2 (60), Round 3 (91), Round 4 (127), Round 5 (163), Round 7 (236), Round 7 (243)

Like: This kid seems to be a better human being than he is an athlete and he’s a great athlete.

Dislike: Nothing. The Cowboys needed a cornerback to replace the atrocity that is the Brandon Carr contract and experiment.

Moving Forward: They need a running back who can carry the load for them as McFadden, Randle and Dunbar aren’t that guy. I think the second round is where they should take him whether it’s Ajayi, Abdullah, Duke Johnson or Yeldon. Ajayi and Yeldon are my two favorite choices for the Cowboys out of that group.

  • Lions: Laken Tomlinson, G, Duke

Draft picks: Round 2 (54), Round 3 (88), Round 6 (200), Round 7 (231), Round 7 (240)

Like: Like Jones, this is a kid who is a better human being than he is a football player and he’s a fantastic football player. He’s one of my favorite stories in the draft and the embodiment of the American Dream. I love that they traded back, got Manny Ramirez, and a couple later round picks for the future. They finally addressed their massive offensive line issue and have vastly improved.

Dislike: I think that they could have gotten him later in the draft, but considering what was available here, I don’t disagree with the idea. I do think that Phillip Dorsett or Malcom Brown could have improved them at positions of need in WR3 and DT. Jay Ajayi could give them a running back who does everything they wanted to get out of Bush and Bell last year, but he could be available later. I had Tomlinson going in the second or third, but I can’t disagree with this pick because he’s a kid who has a high floor. Due to the kind of hard-working, incredible American he is, he’s not going to fail.

Moving Forward: I’ve already mentioned it in the dislike, they need a WR3, DT and RB. The ESPN mock has them taking Carl Davis, which is a good move, Grady Jarrett is another good move here. I would rather they take a running back who can give them what they need in that Saints-style offense, so if Ajayi is here, that’d be a great choice for them and give their offense an incredible dimension to it.

  • Colts: Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami

Draft picks: Round 2 (61), Round 3 (91), Round 4 (128), Round 5 (165), Round 6 (205), Round 6 (207), Round 7 (244), Round 7 (255)

Like: Phillip Dorsett can be great in this offense, but a lot of people can be great in this offense. The main thing I like about this is if they just drafted TY Hilton’s replacement and have realized that he won’t be there for them once his contract runs up considering that they can’t resign everyone from that incredible 2012 class. He did average 24.2 yards per catch last season, so he sure will stretch the field and he will be exciting to watch in this offense. He was also apparently the highest player left on the Colts draft board when they picked him, so I assume that they were just going with the best available strategy. Their defense should be better with the players coming back from injury as well as their free agent additions.

One thing I have to commend them for is that they know who they are, they are an air-it-out attack and they’re going to make sure it stays that way and they never leave Andrew Luck without weapons. While they have a great group of pass-catchers, we don’t know if Moncrief and Carter are 100% going to be the kinds of players who get them to where they want to be. If you’re committed to being the kind of team the Colts have committed to being, then this pick makes 100% sense.

Dislike: When I first saw this last night I was just floored by it. I thought, this is why the Patriots are the Patriots and the Colts can’t beat them. In the matter of about a half an hour, you saw the Patriots draft exactly what they needed, while the Colts seem to have just drafted something they wanted. The Colts are making the same errors that they’ve now made for the last 15 years, they just draft offensive weapons and hope that their defense is going to get better. Their pass catchers are now Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Andre Johnson, Duron Carter (who is apparently very talented with Chad Johnson, who played with him in Canada, saying that he has what it takes to be a #1 WR right now), Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener and, of course, Dorsett. I just don’t understand where he fits into all of this with their other needs.

*With more time to think about it all, I like the pick. He was the best player on their board, the Colts improved their defense in free agency (Trent Cole, Kendall Langford, Nate Irving) and the Colts know exactly who they are, a passing team. I must say, they probably could have gotten a good receiver in the middle of the draft and gotten a tackle like TJ Clemmings to protect Luck, but with Luck throwing 38 times a game, I understand getting someone like Dorsett who can stretch the field.

Moving Forward: They need a DT, OL, CB and a RB. I’m sure they’ll just go best available there too. I think running back is more of a need than we think of it as being because you can’t rely on Frank Gore to be your only real running back as Boom Herron is primarily a pass catcher. We must remember that Vick Ballard will be back, but he’s too injury prone to rely on that. If Duke Johnson or Ameer Abdullah are available in the second round, that’d be great, but David Cobb, Jeremy Langford or Matt Jones could provide better value. Jones might be my favorite running back in the draft as his running style reminds me of Marshawn Lynch and he will be available in the sixth or seventh round. He would be a fantastic pick up for the Colts at the right price.

Ali Marpet, Andy Gallik, Tre Jackson, Josue Matias and La’el Collins (if he’s going to be cleared) are all great options here for the Colts.

If they decide to draft a cornerback then Eric Rowe, Ronald Darby, PJ Williams or Kevin White would be sound picks.

Grady Jarrett or Gabe Wright could give them DT depth.

  • Packers: Damarious Randall, S, Arizona State

Draft picks: Round 2 (62), Round 3 (94), Round 4 (129), Round 5 (166), Round 6 (206), Round 6 (210), Round 6 (213), Round 7 (247)

 

Like: He fills a need, the Packers need better secondary and lost a few players. Capers likes to play with six defensive backs, so this could be a great move for them. Randall has already commented on the fact that he believes he can play anywhere and is willing to do so.

Dislike: I think they needed an ILB more than a safety and I think Randall would have been available later in the draft. Maybe they like a player who they think will be available then, who knows? You never know how these teams grade players that we have graded out in the middle or late rounds, so maybe Randall was just the best player on their board and, considering his athleticism and what the Packers are looking for in their secondary, I can believe it.

Moving Forward: ILB needs to be addressed or, if they decide to move Clay Matthews inside like he played last year, they could go with an OLB, but I wouldn’t advise that. Jay Ajayi or TJ Yeldon would be the perfect back-up to Lacy and take the load off of him a bit. Matt Jones would be a great option later in the draft. The Packers should address their cornerbacks in the middle of the draft after going with Randall early. They could certainly use a DT, so maybe they take one here.

  • Saints: Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson
  • Patriots: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

Draft picks: Round 2 (64), Round 3 (96), Round 3 (97), Round 4 (101), Round 4 (131), Round 6 (178), Round 7 (219), Round 7 (253)

Like: Per usual, the Patriots made one of the most “duh” picks of the draft, they just always do something that makes sense once it’s done, but still has an air of brilliance while it’s going on. Just like the Eagles, the Patriots let a superstar leave in free agency and replaced him with a much cheaper, younger player who is almost a spitting image of Wilfork. They are both 6’2”, and Wilfork is listed as only six pounds heavier.

Dislike: Nothing, this was one of their most pressing needs for a Super Bowl champion with very few holes. I think that Brown is better than the cornerbacks who were still available, which is their next biggest need, and there are better cornerback values in the middle rounds.

Moving Forward: I think they could use another young running back for the future. Blount is old and he’s their lead back, but I don’t think any of their young guys can 100% be relied on. They could also use another tall outside receiver like Jaelen Strong or Sammie Coates. Dorial Green-Beckham could be persuaded to behave here, while Devin Funchess could allow them to do some really creative stuff. Offensive line can always be improved, while they certainly need a cornerback whether they address that in the second or third round is up to them. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them go with Kevin White, Quinten Rollins, Alex Carter, Steven Nelson or Josh Shaw in back-to-back picks in the third after drafting a pass-catcher or a running back. The ESPN draft has them taking Ali Marpet, I can’t disagree with that pick.

*The write ups below are the same ones from the mock draft I did yesterday and they’re the same because they didn’t pick yesterday obviously.

At the bottom are my value picks again, guys who I think will provide more value than where they are drafted.

2/50) Bills

Draft picks: Round 2 (50), Round 3 (81), Round 5 (155), Round 6 (188), Round 6 (194), Round 7 (234)

As I wrote above, I’m a believer that you trade up in the draft if you’re someone like Chip Kelly and you believe that Marcus Mariota is the future of your organization. What I really disliked about what the Bills did last year for Sammy Watkins was that they traded away a first and fourth rounder this year to get one of a handful of elite pass catchers in last year’s first round, especially considering that Oakland and Atlanta both seemed to be looking elsewhere last year, while Tampa Bay wanted Mike Evans, they still could have gotten Watkins at #8. Of course, who knows if the Browns would have drafted him at #4 were it not for the trade. Still, even if Watkins and Evans were gone at #8, they had Odell Beckham available, they could have traded back with someone and compiled picks like the best organizations do and drafted Brandin Cooks or Kelvin Benjamin. While hindsight is always 20/20, they could have made a bunch of different decisions that still resulted in them with a dynamic receiver without giving up important draft picks in the rebuilding of this franchise.

In terms of Doug Marrone, I don’t blame him for being upset with the move, if the team wins or loses, that’s all on you and your organization is making massive decisions that you don’t approve of with your first round picks. That’d rub me the wrong way and certainly ruin the trust between my bosses and me.

Anyway, here they are with their first pick of the 2015 draft at #50 after a tremendous offseason for the franchise. I’m very happy for Rex Ryan, yes, he’s a loud-mouth and he can rub people the wrong way, but Jenny Vrentas’ MMQB article about Rex in Buffalo really got me excited for his future there.

With Kiko Alonso in Philadelphia, they’re going to need some help at linebacker to give Rex Ryan the kind of defense he’s known for and without a fourth round pick, they need to make two great picks in the second and third. I’d like to see them draft Denzel Perryman or Stephone Anthony in the second round from Miami and one of the guards I’ve mentioned already from Florida State or Laken Tomlinson in the third. I believe the third round will be a place that teams will be able to find good value for guards this year.

Considering their need for a quarterback, I really don’t know how they address that this year, but I also don’t think they need to yet. The Rex Ryan style doesn’t need a great quarterback, they need a game manager who doesn’t turn the ball over, they need to implement the strategies of the 2000 Ravens.

Matt Cassel was great during the 2008 season where he was surrounded by a great offense with four running backs with over 275 yards rushing in Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, LaMont Jordan, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the 6th best rushing offense in the league. He had Wes Welker and Randy Moss with over 1000-yards and Kevin Faulk and Jabar Gaffney with over 450 to help him have the 12th best passing offense in the league. Their offense and defense ended up 8th in the NFL in points and points allowed. Cassel also threw 21 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. It might be something to look at next season when there’s a deeper class that could have a quarterback in the middle of the first round that could help them.

The Bills can succeed with Cassel or even Manuel under center if they supply him with weapons and a great defense. This offseason, the Bills did that with the additions of LeSean McCoy, Percy Harvin and Charles Clay, this offense can be very good. Behind those new additions are the offensive players that were already there to help them to a 9-7 season last year, Sammy Watkins, Fred Jackson, Anthony Dixon, Chris Hogan, and Robert Woods. They could certainly use a developmental receiver late in the draft or undrafted, but what the NFL doesn’t know yet is that Chris Hogan might just be the second best athlete to ever train at DeFranco’s Gym only behind Brian Cushing. That includes guys like Deion Branch, Miles Austin, and others. Once and offense figures out how to use him, he will be a 1000-yard receiver, so I don’t think the Bills need anything more than a late round receiver.

I do believe they need to draft one of the late round running backs, preferably a ground and pound style runner, which leads me to look at Kenny Hilliard, Cameron Artis-Payne and Matt Jones. Those three would outplay their sixth or seventh round value in this offense.

Their secondary is filled with great, young players, so a late round pick could be used here or wherever they think they need the most help.

2/62) Seahawks

Draft picks: Round 2 (63), Round 3 (95), Round 4 (112), Round 4 (130), Round 4 (134), Round 5 (167), Round 5 (170), Round 6 (181), Round 6 (209), Round 6 (214), Round 7 (248)

 

Just like the Patriots, another team without many holes to fill, they’re also a team that I find very hard to predict for a couple reasons, the first one being the reason already mentioned, but also, they get so much value out of inexpensive players that it doesn’t matter who or where they draft players, they’re going to get value no matter what happens.

I like what they did last year in this round drafting Percy Harvin’s replacement, Paul Richardson, it’s another aspect of team building that I find to be critical: finding players who can replace players who have, or soon will, a cost that exceeds the value they create. This is why they were able to get rid of Harvin so easily last season.

What I really love is their plethora of mid and late round draft picks, this is where the Seahawks eat. So at #63, I originally thought they would try and draft a tackle here, then look for a center in the third round, which I have declared on Twitter as the place to go if you’re looking for a center at a great value. I was thinking that they would try and draft a tackle high because of the great players available in the first two rounds, but, with the middle of the draft chock full of great interior linemen, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks drafted a few great prospects in the interior line there. Of course, if a guy like DJ Humphries or TJ Clemmings are high on their boards and drop to them at #63, they might make that kind of move.

Ali Marpet, the athletic freak from Hobart, looks like he’ll be available in the third or fourth round and he’s a very intriguing prospect that I think has piqued the Seahawks interest. With his versatility, they’d be able to play him in multiple places on the line and could get a solid player for the next ten years in the middle rounds. Add in some guys like Laken Tomlinson, BJ Finney, Andy Gallik, Josue Matias, Arie Kouandjio, Tre Jackson, and Max Garcia, there are some very good prospects that the Seahawks could draft in the middle rounds and get a lot out of.

Robert Turbin and Christine Michael showed a lot of improvement last season in a limited role with Turbin averaging 4.2 yards per carry and Michael averaging 5.1, but I think they’re going to draft a running back in this RB rich draft to a) improve depth, b) create competition, and c) give themselves a quick replacement for Turbin or Michael if/when they leave within the next two seasons in free agency. Seattle has become a place where teams come to poach talent, so I think that if Turbin or Michael do well before they hit free agency, they will be grossly overpaid by someone and this is the draft to draft your running back of the future.

With that in mind, I keep saying this, but this is a running back draft and I doubt the Seahawks will come out of these 11 picks without a solid running back. I’m sure they’ve prepared a list of the backs they think would best fit their system and with the toughness that Tevin Coleman (5’11”, 206) played with this season on a broken foot, he’s the kind of tough guy that could fit into this offense. TJ Yeldon is another guy who’s a big, physical back at 6’2”, 226 who could replace Marshawn one day and both could be available in the second and third round.

With eight picks in the fourth through sixth rounds, some options at running back in those rounds could be David Johnson, Javorius Allen, David Cobb, Jeremy Langford, Cameron Artis-Payne, Josh Robinson, Matt Jones, Terrence MaGee and Kenny Hilliard.

SB Nation had a great article about all the running backs who said at that combine that they try to emulate Marshawn Lynch in their running style and the players who they mention who do show some of Lynch’s traits are:

  • Jay Ajayi: “Ajayi’s running style and body type are very similar to Lynch’s and Ajayi features an improving stiff arm and physicality that has become Lynch’s calling card.”
  • Josh Robinson: “Ajayi is an interesting comp to Lynch, but for my money the player with the most Beast Mode in him might be Mississippi State’s Josh Robinson. He alluded to that “zone” or state of mind, when he told me that, “[on the field], I’m a different animal. Every time [I] step onto the field, nothing on film can really show you what I do.”

So, naturally, when I asked him which NFL player he sees in himself, he responded without hesitation.

“Beast Mode Two, you know, yeah-yeah-yeah. Coming soon!”

This was no surprise to me and ability to break tackles, to me, is one of his most defining features. How does he do it? “Relentless effort. That’s all that matters. Relentless effort.””

  • While Robinson is small, he’s got that Beast Mode that we saw in the Kentucky game this year.
  • Mike Davis: “Davis is another big back with fast feet, and while he’s not as much of a tackle breaker as some of his classmates, he’s got a little more zuzu in his cuts than his 215-plus-pound cohorts. Davis played through a couple of injuries in 2014 and even though his production dipped from 2013, he said coaches have given him good feedback on his ability and willingness to play through those issues.”
  • Matt Jones: “Jones’ isn’t being immodest when he talks about Lynch, because of the backs that I’ve watched in this year’s class, he is probably near the top in terms of his ability to churn his legs through arm tackles. As Lance Zeirlein put it in his scouting report on the Gator running back, Jones has “pistons for feet, chomping and churning through contact to extend [the] run.”

These guys, David Cobb, and a few other physical backs could be good running back options for the Seahawks to prepare for Post-Beast Mode.

The cornerback position is very interesting to me with these guys because of the prospects that feel like they could end up on the Seahawks due to circumstances that could make them real value plays for them. No one knows where Byron Jones is going to end up, leading into the draft process, he was more of a third or fourth round prospect, but he jumped his way into the first round conversation.

Marcus Peters is someone who might have been the top cornerback in the draft if it weren’t for some issues with the new coaching staff at Washington that led to his dismissal. Considering that the school is in Seattle, I’m sure that Carroll and company know what went on there, so if things check out, they could be interested in him. He’s a first round talent, much like Janoris Jenkins and Tyrann Mathieu, two guys with their own issues in college, but who fell into the second and third round respectively, so he could be available at a huge value if the team who drafts him can control him.

Quinten Rollins from Miami (Ohio) is a cornerback/safety who was the 2014 MAC Defensive Player of the Year in his first season of college football after starting for their basketball team there. He’s just a freak who has a lot of room to grow and he’s projected between the second and fourth round.

Eric Rowe from Utah is another versatile defensive back who could play corner or safety at the next level and at 6’1”, 205, has the kind of size that the Seahawks look for.

Ifo Ekpre-Olomu is someone who according to quite a few sources, could have been one of the top ranked cornerbacks coming into the draft before suffering a knee injury that some sources are saying could be at the level of the Marcus Lattimore or Willis McGahee injuries. According to Walter Football, some teams are questioning if he’ll ever play again, while some have him listed as a sixth round to undrafted free agent.

Nick Marshall is an interesting play for them at 6’1”, 207, he fits into the kind of size that they look for in their cornerbacks and, as a former quarterback, he has the football intelligence to be a quick study. Walter Football mentions that he needs development and could need a year or two to “redshirt” in the NFL before being prepared and the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL at using this method. For a sixth or seventh round pick, Nick Marshall is the perfect kind of player for the Seahawks. They’re more than willing to take a late round flier on a guy that might need some time to contribute because if things work out, he could be a very nice player.

Josh Shaw from USC is a corner/safety type projected in the third to fifth round and at 6’, 201, with the kind of physicality he plays with, he could be a great fit in Seattle. Ladarius Gunter is 6’1”, 202, but ran a 4.69 at the combine, so he could fall further than his fourth to sixth round grade, in which case, he could be a good seventh round value. PJ Williams from Florida State is 6’, 194 and hurt his draft stock with a DUI arrest in the last few weeks. Projected in the second or third round, he’s another guy who could see himself fall through the draft.

Especially with Peters and Ekpre-Olomu, these are the kinds of players that could fall to the Seahawks in the right spot and be great potential value plays for them. There are quite a few cornerbacks with various question marks that could become the kind of prototypical late round success stories that the Seahawks dominate with.

 

Below are some value picks that I love, guys that I think will be drafted lower than the value that they will provide for their teams. Basically, they will outplay their rookie contracts, in no particular order.

 

Jamison Crowder

Kevin White (TCU)

Tre Williams

Rashad Greene

Dezmin Lewis

Jordan Hicks

Kevin Monangai

Lyle McCombs

Justin Hardy

Tyler Lockett

Jay Ajayi

TJ Yeldon

Zach Zenner

Taylor Belsterling

Carlif Taylor

Jean Sifrin

Antwan Goodley

Dorial Green-Beckham

Quinten Rollins

Cameron Artis-Payne

Jake Ryan

Grady Jarrett

Matt Jones

Tre McBride

Ali Marpet

Rob Havenstein

Rory Anderson

Ameer Abdullah

David Cobb

Josh Robinson

Vince Mayle

CJ Uzomah

Duke Johnson