NFL Stock Up: Week 8

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Every Monday during the season we will take a look back at three players who are entering important stages of their contract that may have helped their stock in upcoming negotiations with their play on Sunday. In addition we will also look at one player signed in the offseason to a new contract that exceeded all expectations and provided exceptional value to his team.

Mark Ingram– Back from injury, Ingram exploded for 172 yards and a touchdown. Ingram has run the ball since late last season like a man possessed and could very well be the most attractive free agent runner on the market this year. I say that for two reasons.  One is that he does not have a tremendous amount of wear and tear on his body and secondly that the Saints are looking to be for running backs what the Steelers are for wide receivers.

Ben Roethlisberger– It will soon be extension time for the QB class of 2004 and Roethlisberger put on a show for the ages with a 522 yard, 6 touchdown performance against a defense that was in a groove and shutting offenses down. The Steelers can be maddening to watch at times, all too often playing to the level of their opponents, but Roethlisberger always gives them a chance. They would be lost without him and that is going to show when the extension finally happens.

Justin Houston– Houston is on pace for a 20 sack season and obliterated the Rams for 3 sacks and 5 solo tackles. I’m not sure that there is a better player at the position and he compares favorably to where Clay Matthews was when he signed his $13.2 million contract that set the market for the outside linebacker. With Gerald McCoy, a defensive tackle, breaking the $13 million per year mark there is no reason for Houston not to aim for $14 million a season.

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New Contract Player Of The Week

Golden Tate– Tate gets the nod two weeks in a row following his 151 yard day. I think at this stage of the season its safe to say that Tate was the best free agent signing of 2014. I’m not sure where the Lions would be without Tate, but they definitely would not have a winning record. The Lions front office has not gotten many things right the last few years but their pinpointing of Tate was perfect.

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NFL Stock Up: Week 7

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Every Monday during the season we will take a look back at three players who are entering important stages of their contract that may have helped their stock in upcoming negotiations with their play on Sunday. In addition we will also look at one player signed in the offseason to a new contract that exceeded all expectations and provided exceptional value to his team.

Stock Up

Russell Wilson– It makes no difference to me that Seattle lost the game. Seattle fans are watching Wilson enter another dimension with his play this season. Wilson was already set to make a killing on an extension, but he’s very quickly putting himself in a different statistical class. The more they entrust him with the ball the better and better he is going to look.

Dez Bryant– Bryant is a physical marvel and took over the game in the second half. He faced some tight coverage against the Giants but nothing seemed to diminish his game. There are few receivers that would have consistently pulled down the passes he was pulling down. I think a strong argument can be made that he is the best receiver in the NFL.

Demaryius Thomas– Thomas had another exceptional game in his walk year, this time catching Peyton Manning’s record breaking touchdown and adding another 171 yards to his stat line. Thomas has been unstoppable the last three week and unlike former running mate Eric Decker will not get the label of being a Manning creation. Thomas will be one of the top 5 paid receivers by next season.

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New Contract Player Of The Week

Golden Tate– There have been a few games this year where Tate was someone I considered for this, but there was no denying him this week. He finished the day with 10 receptions for 154 yards including a ridiculous touchdown where he outran the whole Saints defense.  He would be the best receiver in Seattle had they kept him.

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Stock Up: Week 10

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Every Monday during the season we will take a look back at three players who are entering important stages of their contract that may have helped their stock in upcoming negotiations with their play on Sunday. In addition we will also look at one player signed in the offseason to a new contract that exceeded all expectations and provided exceptional value to his team.

Stock Up

Robert Quinn– It was another dominating performance for Quinn as he made life miserable on Andrew Luck and the Colts. Quinn notched another two sacks bringing his total to 12 on the season with 6 games to go. Quinn will be eligible for an extension this offseason and the Rams general nature has been to lock up their talent sooner rather than later. St Louis has overspent on a number of players in recent years and that should all work in Quinn’s favor. The Rams do own his rights for the next two years but should be able to cash in if he keeps this level of play up.

Golden Tate– Entering the final year of his rookie contract Tate needed to have a quality season to find a decent contract somewhere. From a personal standpoint the stars aligned in his favor with Percy Harvin being injured before the season began and Sidney Rice being banged up most of the year before landing on season ending IR. He has made good with his chances and had a terrific 106 yard performance in the Seahawks wipeout of the Falcons on Sunday. Tate is on pace to shatter his previous career highs and has put up at least 75 yards in three of his last four games. He was considered a lame duck in Seattle but with their cap being tight and his growth as a player he may sneak himself into a nice second tier WR contract with Seattle.

Andre Brown– I don’t know how much this game really means in the grand scheme of things but it had to be such a personal triumph for Brown that I wanted to include him here. After another crushing injury the Giants rode Brown like an old school featured running back who led the team to the win against the Oakland Raiders. Brown, playing on his RFA contract, carried the ball 30 times for 115 yards and gave the Giants an offensive identity that they lacked all season. I can’t imagine that this was in the cards either, but following a fumble by Peyton Hillis and a costly turnover by Eli Manning the Giants lost confidence in those two and went to Brown to make sure the team did not lose the game off bad offensive mistakes.

New Contract Player Of The Week

Reggie Bush– Bush has pretty much the perfect fit for the Lions offense this season. When teams overcompensate for the pass Bush is right there to pick up big yards against the defense. He provides a steady safety valve in the passing game when the coverage is there down the field. Hes versatile enough to play every down if he has to. I never thought Bush would be this impressive but this is everything people assumed he would be in New Orleans years ago. Yesterday Bush went off for 105 yards on just 14 carries including close to 30 yards on the drive that really won the game for the Lions.

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Percy Harvin Requires Surgery

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Percy Harvin himself broke the news that he would need surgery to repair a hip injury, leaving the Seahawks one WR short for a majority of the season. In some ways it is lucky that Harvin suffered an injury before camp began. Because Harvin had yet to pass a physical with the team he landed on the Physically Unable to Perform list. The Seahawks can stash him on PUP until late in the season and then activate him at a later date, which I believe is sometime in late November under the new NFL rules. This frees up short term IR designation for a player who is injured during training camp or early in the season.

From a salary cap perspective the move is not devastating to the Seahawks. Harvin, who signed a large extension this offseason, was only going to count for $4.9 million against the salary cap this season, so Seattle had not built their financial structure strictly around him. However the injury should now make Sidney Rice, whose $9.7 million dollar cap charge could have made him expendable or at least forced into a paycut, 100% safe to play out the year at his current cap charge. The injury should also open the door for Golden Tate to see more looks in the offense.

The cap and contractual situations of these players should be beneficial to the Seahawks. Seattle already made it known that they were committing financially to Harvin, meaning the other two would likely not have futures in Seattle. Rice knows his cap charges will most likely see him cut after the year while Tate is in the final year of his contract. Even TE Zach Miller, another overpaid target in the offense whose contract will most likely be terminated following the season, should help fill the void. Players looking for new contracts have every incentive to outperform expectations and show up ready to go so that may bode well for Seattle.

Unfortunately for Seattle they had structured Harvin’s contract to have this as his “bargain” year before the salary cap charges would spike well into the double digits. Though he may still play this year, the injury likely ruins whatever visions they had from a roster management standpoint for the short term. Next season Harvin’s cap charge will rise to $13.4 million.

The injury to Harvin shows why teams are often so hesitant to extend players early. While we all focus on the player perspective, such as Jeremy Maclin’s whose ACL injury may have cost him millions, Harvin is going to be exhibit A as to why teams do not overpay early for players. Harvin, who has only played 16 games once in his career and finished last season on IR, was given a top of the market contract extension following a trade in which the Seahawks gave up a 1st round pick for Harvin. You can bet that other GM’s around the NFL will look at this when considering offers made to their own free agents and factor in the injury possibility as reason for offering lower price points to their players. Both sides need protection from the injury, the players via guarantees and the team via a “sticker price discount” for taking some of the injury risk away from the player. Seattle got neither.

Essentially Seattle treated Harvin as if he was a Restricted Free Agent with a 1st round tender. Most players, such as the Giants Victor Cruz, would not even get a sniff from another team with such a high price tag. Seattle went all in on the player, including $14.5 million in cash  obligations alone just for the 2013 season. It was a risky deal and they will probably not gain much benefit at all from him in 2013.

Seattle has so much invested in Harvin that they also need to be careful not to rush him back and risk further injury. Harvin has $11 million dollars in 2014 already guaranteed for injury. The guarantee vests to a fully guaranteed salary a few days after the Super Bowl. The last thing they want is to have a much larger cap charge on IR next season because they tried to get him back sooner rather than later. Seattle was fine without Harvin last year and their cap structure isn’t hurt by the injury. His being injured next year would be much more crippling to the financial structure of the team.

View Percy Harvin’s Salary Cap Page

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