Thoughts on Dolphins Options With Richie Incognito

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Based on various reports about the future of Dolphins G Richie Incognito I just thought I would throw my opinion out there as to the options for the Dolphins.

The Dolphins suspended Incognito yesterday for conduct detrimental to the team. Per my understanding of the CBA the longest period he can be suspended for is 4 games, which would make it mandatory that he return to the roster following the Dolphins game against the New York Jets on December 1. Incognito will not be paid for this period of suspension which would cost him $941,177 in lost salary and $50,000 in bonus money.

The NFL Players Association can challenge validity of the suspension which I would imagine presents them with a difficult dilemma. In  this case the detrimental conduct by Incognito was directly pointed at another member of the NFLPA. Normally the NFLPA would challenge an assertion that the player was harming the team and thus subject to discipline, but in this case it’s a reaction to a complaint made by a union member. This may be even more difficult than challenging the Patriots on behalf of Aaron Hernandez where there was at least an argument to be made to protect the guaranteed contracts of players from wrongful termination.

There are many saying that the Dolphins should just release Incognito, but once the Dolphins do that they will be on the hook for the remainder of his salary which is protected under the Termination Pay provisions of the CBA. There is one manner in which a team can attempt to avoid that pay, but it requires a player to not exhibit a good faith effort to fulfill his responsibilities to play football and that would be a major stretch in this situation.

With that in mind I have the same response to this as I did the Hernandez case and that if the act is that terrible (and by no means am I lumping Incognito anywhere near Hernandez) that we should never reward the person with money if it can be avoided. If Miami chooses to release Incognito now they will have to pay him the $941,177 in salary that he would lose while suspended. If they simply wait 4 weeks Incognito loses that money.

By waiting Miami’s final bill would be $941,177 for the final four weeks of the year rather than $1,882,353. The bonus is money is lost whether he is cut now or later as that money is not protected by Termination Pay. If this is indeed Incognito’s last season in the NFL he should also be eligible for severance pay from the Dolphins. I believe his severance pay will equal $102,500 which he can claim after a year out of the NFL. Unlike Termination Pay, this charge will not impact the salary cap.

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Utilizing Free Agency to Build a Team

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As Ryan continues his excellent State of the Rebuild series, in which he looks at new General Managers and their situations, I thought it might be worthwhile to just give a general overview of the manner in which teams are utilizing free agency to build their starting rosters for the 2013 NFL season. For this I will look at the AFC (I’ll be happy to run the numbers for the NFC if requested) and use the current starting players listed on Ourlads depth charts. Traded players do not count when looking at free agency unless they signed a new contract with the team. For example Chris Ivory of the Jets would count (though he is not listed as a starter) but Alex Smith of the Chiefs would not.

Free agency is often a short sighted approach to building a football team. The NFL is a young man’s game and often the most productive years for a player come during the first six or seven seasons of a career.  For some teams this leads to a philosophy of extending draft picks early in their careers.  The manner in which this works is that a team, after a players third season in the league (it used to be his second season), extends the player for a period of anywhere from three to five seasons on top of his existing contract.

The benefit to this is that the player is locked up for what are considered his “prime” football years with minimal down  the road impact if the player needs to be released for dropoff in performance. The reason the impact is minimized is because bonus money can only be prorated over a 5 year period, leaving the final extension years often clean from a salary cap standpoint. Teams also have a great deal of leverage in these early extension negotiations and can lock up players at below market values. In general you are sacrificing the salary cap benefit of the rookie contract for long term salary cap flexibility. The 49’ers, Packers, and Eagles have all been major proponents of this strategy.

Of course there is risk involved in this strategy. First of all you have a very small sample size of real game action to evaluate the player. For many players you can throw a rookie season out simply due to the immense learning curve of the NFL, leaving a team with just one or two years to evaluate the talent. If the talent busts you are stuck with cap charges you never would have had if you allowed him to play the rookie contract out. This is how the Patriots got into cap problems with Aaron Hernandez. While that is an extreme example it shows the negative side of the early extension.

It can also be a difficult strategy to stick with because GM’s jobs are directly tied to wins and losses and this strategy is a better long term rather than short term strategy. You are sacrificing the opportunity to get better immediately to stay better over a longer period of time, which could lead to some losing seasons early in the philosophical transition. That often leads to a team going in the other direction and looking to build via free agency.

There are various types of building through free agency. There is the more short term enhancement designed to put a “win now” team over the top. The Broncos would be an example of this. They will have nearly $20 million(as measured by annual value) in new talent take the field for them this year, but three of those four players are signed for 2 or fewer seasons. This, in essence, gives the team a great escape if the “win now” team doesn’t win. There is no long term commitment whatsoever.

There is the barren roster situation which would be exemplified by the Raiders. The Raiders are essentially an expansion team and need bodies on the field. They have eight new starters signed as free agents, tied for most in the AFC.  They are not signing them to turn the franchise around; it’s simply better than the alternative of the completely unknown undrafted free agent.  Of those eight, six will be free agents after this season.   It is a stop gap solution with no long term damage.

There are other teams that see free agency as an opportunity to add one or two big pieces to the long term plan of the team. The Browns and Titans would both fit in that category. They added some significant big money players but not to the point where it completely overhauls their roster. These players are not short term solutions either but more admissions of either draft failures or a desire to not spend future draft allocations on these positions.

Finally you have the complete rebuilding approach. I find this to be the most fascinating to watch unfold because the expectations are not so much to build on what is in place but to turn a franchise completely around in a very quick manner.   Failure at the early stages of this process often lead to significant salary cap damage down the line. This strategy is completely opposite to the “extend early to avoid the cap pain late” approach. Teams that build this way often do not have a happy ending when the 28 year old free agent makes the turn past 30 and they have all kinds of guarantees or bonus prorations in their contracts. What makes this even more difficult is that you are not putting one or two parts into an existing system but multiple pieces. With limited practice time in the preseason it can leave units of 11 that need to function as 1 right out of the gate struggling for answers on the field. By the time they figure things out the season could be lost and GM’s jobs will be in jeopardy.

The two AFC teams utilizing this strategy this year are the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts, though there are differences to both internally in the way that they approached this. Miami is one of the most unique attempts at a quick rebuild that I can recall. They have more or less been waiting for the last two years for contracts to run out so that they had significant money to spend. Miami doled out over $42 million in annual salary to other teams’ free agents. That is nearly $8.5 million more than the next closest team.  They will have 7 new starters this year, nearly 1/3 of their starting roster.

What makes their situation even more unique is that for all this money spent, $13.5 million of it is just for one year rentals. That $13.5 million represents the contracts given to TE Dustin Keller, CB Brent Grimes, and RT Tyson Clabo. Normally you would expect this more on a “win now” team where you go all in on a few short term pieces, but the Dolphins have shown no signs of being that type of team. They have been a steady as a rock 6 to 7 win team since their trip to the playoffs in 2008.

They also have five other starters in their walk year (Randy Starks, Paul Soliai, Chris Clemons, Koa Misi, and Richie Incognito) which could keep the Dolphins in line for another major overhaul in 2014. With a good deal of cap room to carry over into 2014 and some wiggle room  to restructure existing contracts, Miami could conceivably go on a large spending spree again in 2014, potentially under a new GM if the team fails in 2013. So it’s not really a big window of opportunity for the team as presently constructed but more of a one year vision with an open window to improve internally and externally in the future.

The Colts are different. They have taken an approach that you can take a relatively young overachieving team, and I’m not sure any team has ever overachieved more than the Colts last season, and quickly take it from the learning stages right into the advanced playoff stages. Indianapolis will have 8 new starters in 2013, 5 of whom are signed for 4 or more seasons. They committed 26 seasons to these 8 players so this was a long term plan, not a short term fix.

But the Colts are also making a leap of faith on the talent they acquired. These players are not so much proven talents as they are key backups now expected to start. The 8 players only combined for 72 starts in 2012. S LaRon Landry and RT Gosder Cherilus are really your only true proven starters. Almost everyone else the team signed long term comes with a huge “buyer beware” sign and the decisions left a number of people around the league wondering why they paid so much for some of the players.

That said I would consider this a more traditional approach to building via free agency with long term deals as the centerpiece. Normally teams might wait one more season rather than right after the rookie year of a number of key pieces but the Colts are young and cheap enough to where this may just be the prelude to the main event which could take place in free agency in 2014. They will be tough to outbid next year if they want to add more pieces.

I do think that many teams will watch the success or failure of the Colts and Dolphins very closely. There are a number of teams that are going to have significant cap room next season and what could be impatient owners and/or fanbases that want to see results fast. These teams include the Raiders, Jaguars, Jets, Browns, and Bears. If the Dolphins can go from a 7 win to an 11 win team it is going to be hard to state that you want to avoid free agency and build via the draft on a 3 year plan. But if Miami goes 7-9 again and the Colts fail to make the playoffs it will likely be another reason to not go wild in free agency.

A lot may hinge on these types of teams besides free agency philosophies. Spending in general was down last season on most positions other than QB and WR. The flat salary cap has made some teams a bit more cautious than they were in the past with their spending  and as a result free agency in 2013 was almost a non-event outside of a handful of contracts. Players need some of these big money contracts to actually result in improved won-loss records and playoff success to convince teams that spending is just as important as drafting.

I’d actually say it is far more important to the players to see players like Mike Wallace and Paul Kruger help turn the fortunes around of their franchise than it would be for a bargain chip like Wes Welker to push the Broncos to the Super Bowl. While a player like Welker would show that you can enhance your results by participating in free agency, his next to nothing contract would still signal that teams should put low caps on their offseason evaluations. If the big money items make a meaningful splash more bidding wars could ensue.

The following chart illustrates the annual amount spent per team on 2013 starters that came via free agency. The two lines show how many players were signed and how many total years were potentially invested in those players. If you would like to see an overview of the NFC feel free to send me an email.

2013 NFL Free agency

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Best & Worst Contracts: The Miami Dolphins

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A few weeks ago Jason LaCanfora published a list of best and worst contracts in the NFL so I thought it might make a good idea for us to do the same here at OTC, with a team by team approach. I’ll try to be a bit more analytical in terms of why money was paid and how it fits in the market, but the general premise is the same. The one key difference is outside of restructured rookie contracts under the old CBA we will only use veteran contracts as there is a big difference between best draft picks and best contracts.  Please note that there is a difference between a bad player and a bad contract when discussing some of the selections. Clicking on a players name will take you to his salary cap page.

Cameron Wake

Jim Rassol/Sun Sentinel/MCT

Best Contract: Cameron Wake

This is a no brainer. Wake is the best defensive player in the NFL and was close to the best defensive player in the NFL when he signed his contract in 2012.  While I am not a fan of the Dolphins front office or their handling of contracts they hit a home run with Wake. Jeff Ireland steamrolled Wake, who was a in the final year of a low cost contract, into accepting a contract that offered little protection as he got older and the need to continue to perform at a high level in order to earn incentives to bump the value of his contract to a reasonable level.

Wake’s APY ranks behind that of Chris Long, Trent Cole, Jared Allen, Charles Johnson, Tamba Hali, Terrell Suggs, Lamarr Woodley, and so on. The base value of his contract is about 48% less than that of Mario Williams. In the last three years Wake has produced 37.5 sacks and 191 additional pressures while Williams has produced 24 and 113.  Even if Wake hits his upside values he will only be compensated around the levels of Hali. Wake’s lowball deal may have been the impetus that has made teams rethink
the spending that they thought they were forced to allocate to premier pass rushers as the market has declined greatly following the Wake contract.

Whether it was an over-reliance on a fluke sack conversion stat or something else off his 2011 season, Wake took a deal that will never push his cap number beyond $9.8 million on the base value of the contract. His cap number this season is only slightly above $5 million and in 2015, when he turns 33, there is only $2.8 million of dead money on the books if they decide to release him. Quite frankly he’ll probably be in a position where he may be forced into a paycut. It was this bargain deal that allowed Miami to spend wildly in the 2013 offseason and the deal is arguably the best non-rookie contract in all of the NFL.

Mike Wallace

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Worst Contract: Mike Wallace

The Dolphins spent tons of money in 2013 on multiple long term contracts which raised questions among observers as to what the Dolphins were seeing in some of the players. None typified that response more than Wallace. The Dolphins have taken an amazing risk on Wallace, paying him $12 million a year on a cap killing contract hoping that he can be what Plaxico Burress was to Eli Manning or what Calvin Johnson currently is to Matthew Stafford.

For the first time in his career Wallace is going to be asked to be the primary target on a team. He is no longer going to be that deep threat running down the sidelines while teams have to guess where to roll coverage. He is going to be the man. Statistically his previous three seasons compared closer to that of DeSean Jackson and Santonio Holmes in terms of team contribution at time of signing, players more in the $9 million dollar a year range than the elite category the Dolphins priced Wallace in.  Like those two Wallace has also shown some maturity issues that seemed to pull his play down last season. Miami has to hope that paying him the money he wanted brings out a renewed interest for a player whose numbers were down across the board last year.  Wallace currently ranks 4th in the NFL in compensation at the position.

The contract structure pushed the deal for me into clear worst category. In order to make his cap hit artificially low in 2013, Wallace’s cap number will never be below $12.1 million over the course of the deal.  He will earn an additional $3 million in guarantees in 2014 pushing his dead money in 2015 to $9.6 million, assuming Miami does not rework his contract in 2014, when he will carry a $17.25 million dollar cap charge.  For Wallace to justify the Dolphins investment he is going to have to produce somewhere between 1,400 and 1,500 yards. That is a tall task for almost any WR in the NFL.

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What Teams Will Gain in Cap Space with the June 1 Cut

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With June 1 rapidly approaching I thought this would be a good time to update on the salary cap changes that will occur for a number of teams as well as some other thoughts on the subject. On June 1 the league changes their accounting rules for acceleration of prorated bonus money. If a player is cut prior to June 1 all of a players unaccounted for bonus money accelerates onto the salary cap. If a player is cut after June 1 the players unaccounted for money accelerates to the following season (in this case 2014) with only his current proration remaining on the 2013 cap books.

The NFL allows teams to cut up to two players prior to June 1 and designate them “June 1 cuts”. If this mechanism is used the team carries the players’ full cap charge in their top 51 until June 1. On June 2 the player is officially removed from the roster with only his current years proration remaining on the books and in many cases a dramatic increase in cap space for cap starved teams that need to sign rookies or have money on hand for in season roster management. 10 teams utilized the June 1 designation, with the Dolphins being the only team to use it on two players.

For many of the teams the money is desperately needed. The Oakland Raiders have yet to sign a draft pick as they remain right around the NFL’s cap limit, but on June 2 their cap will grow to about $7.86 million after Michael Huff drops off the books. The Steelers with almost no breathing room and less than $600,000 in cap room with 4 picks to sign will now have $5.59 million to spend, due to the June 1 treatment of Willie Colon. The Chargers, the other cap strapped team with less than $1 million in room, will remove Jared Gaither to jump to $4.65 million in cap space.  The other teams with limited cap funds that will benefit from the June 1 rule are the Falcons and Ravens, both of whom currently have around $2 million in cap space.

Other teams such as the Bills and Dolphins will see large increases that will jump them very close to the top of the NFL in cap space. The Dolphins will jump from 15th to 7th in the NFL in cap space while the Bills will go from 7th to 5th. This is primarily because of the large cap investments that the teams’ made in mediocre players. Ryan Fitzpatrick current sits as the 2nd largest cap charge on the Bills active roster while Karlos Dansby has the highest cap figure of any Dolphin. Huff of the Raiders also ranks as the highest cap charge on his team.

Most of the players are all good enough to find another job in the NFL, only Gaither has not found a team willing to take him, but only 5 received multi-year contracts and the highest cap charge to be found is Tyson Clabo, now of the Dolphins, at $3.5 million. The June 1 rule really illustrates the mistakes that teams make when valuing players and structuring contracts. While Dansby, Huff, and Fitzpatrick were outrageous figures, 6 of the June 1 cuts still take up a top 5 cap spot on the active roster and 9 are in the top 10. The following table shows the amount of estimated cap space that was to be spent on these players, dead money the teams will carry, and how much cap new teams are going to pay these players this season:

Category

Total

Original Cap Charge

$70,563,750

2013 Dead Money

$19,413,750

2014 Dead Money

$36,883,750

New Team 2013 Cap

$18,088,750

So the cutting teams will carry more dead money this year than the players will collectively make from their new teams to play in the NFL. The league valued these players at 74.3% less than the teams original projections. Assuming that the average salary for the group in 2014 is $1 million each then those players will play football over a 2 year period for 50% less than the dead money totals that the original teams will now carry in 2013 and 2014. That’s one of the reasons why when we do some of the valuations on the site from a team perspective we try to take into account future productivity as this was, for the most part, money thrown away on players. These are the type of contracts that get General Managers fired over the long run.

As for the June 1 cuts themselves here is the list of players that will be removed on June 2 and what the projected cap totals for the teams will be based on the official salary cap numbers as of May 28, 2013.

PlayerTeam

Current Charge

New Charge

Savings

New Team Cap Space

James AndersonPanthers

$4,400,000

$1,400,000

$3,000,000

$9,793,115

Michael HuffRaiders

$11,288,750

$3,288,750

$8,000,000

$7,857,320

Bernard PollardRavens

$3,250,000

$750,000

$2,500,000

$4,303,573

Ryan FitzpatrickBills

$10,450,000

$3,000,000

$7,450,000

$19,027,240

Karlos DansbyDolphins

$8,575,000

$2,325,000

$6,250,000

$17,949,298

Kevin BurnettDolphins

$5,700,000

$1,250,000

$4,450,000

$17,949,298

Willie ColonSteelers

$7,650,000

$2,150,000

$5,500,000

$5,590,098

Jared GaitherChargers

$6,500,000

$2,000,000

$4,500,000

$4,645,848

Tyson ClaboFalcons

$6,050,000

$1,550,000

$4,500,000

$6,437,723

Marcus SpearsCowboys

$2,700,000

$700,000

$2,000,000

$9,695,234

Adam SnyderCardinals

$4,000,000

$1,000,000

$3,000,000

$10,792,654

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Do the Miami Dolphins Need to Sign Branden Albert Before a Trade?

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I read a number of tweets today discussing the potential Branden Albert to Miami trade with points being made that the Dolphins would need to re-work his contract before any deal could be made due to cap purposes. I wanted to touch on a few angles to this and why I disagree.

First of all lets just look at the non-cap approach. Why does a deal need to be made to extend Albert?  The answer is it does not. Albert has signed his franchise tender and is officially under contract to the Kansas City Chiefs. He is obligated to appear at mandatory team activities, report to training camp, and play in the 2013 league year. Those same obligations transfer to Miami if traded. Albert could be looking for a contract that is outlandish in today’s market making the cost of re-signing him prohibitive.

The largest deal signed this year by a lineman was by former Dolphin Jake Long whose 4 year contract averages $8.5 million per year with only $12 million in firm guarantees. Albert already had $9.828 million guaranteed. The second largest contract was signed by RT Gosder Cherilus averaging $7 million a year with $15.5 million guaranteed. So signing Albert to a long term deal in the next week could be more trouble than its worth.

One should also keep in mind that this is Miami and they have been willing to play guys on deals like this in the past. In 2011 they allowed DT Paul Soliai to play out the season on a franchise tag worth over $12 million dollars. He ended up re-signing with the team on a two year deal worth a total $11.5 million. Good cap management and planning?  Absolutely not, but if it was good for Soliai why wouldn’t it be good for Albert?

Going into the salary cap aspect there is the thought that Alberts $9.828 million dollar cap hit is far too much for Miami to absorb, specifically with a large rookie bill due in July.  I want to look at this from two perspectives. The prevailing line of thinking has the Dolphins with about $8.3 million in cap room. This is based on NFLPA records and NFLPA accounting. I’ll mainly work with that figure, but my interpretation of the CBA indicates that there is a potential error in their accounting system.

When a player is designated a June cut here is how the CBA states the contract should be handled:

as if terminated on June 2, i.e., the Salary Cap charge for each such contract will remain in the Club’s Team Salary until June 2, at which time its Paragraph 5 Salary and any unearned LTBE incentives will no longer be counted and any unamortized signing bonus will be treated as set forth in Subsection (2) below

To me that indicates that the contract runs as if terminated on June 2 meaning the player should count in the top 51 during this time. Such a method of accounting makes intuitive sense because you are penalizing a teams cap by removing the cap from the top 51 and into the “dead money category” and replacing him with a player making at least $405,000. The NFLPA accounts for them as if they are dead money. Miami has two such players which would mean that Miami could be charged an extra $960,000 than they should be compared to the leagues official records. If that is the case Miami’s cap is closer to $9.3 million.

But assuming $8.3 million is the number let’s play the trade out. If Albert comes to Miami he immediately replaces the 51st player on the team, which would be Jonathan Freeny at $480,000. That brings Albert’s net effect on the cap down to $9.348 million, leaving Miami with just $1 million or so to come up with. As you look through Miami’s cap sheet there are a number of players who immediately come to mind as reasonable cuts to gain that cap space.

K Dan Carpenter, very inconsistent in 2012, saves the team $2.7 million if released. WR Davone Bess who would look to be odd man at wideout anyway saves Miami $2.68 million in cap room. Of course cutting them means Freeny’s $480K jumps back on the cap but its still more than enough to bring Albert in at his current cap figure. Those two players both have base salaries above $2 million which could make both prime candidates for paycuts if you wanted to keep them on the roster and not impact the top 51 makeup. Combining a paycut with the release of LS John Denney might also do the trick. Dimitri Patterson and his $4.5 million dollar P5 could also be looked at though the Dolphins are a bit thin in the secondary.

Going back to the June 1 cut rules, remember that Miami has large figures coming off the cap on June 2. On June 2nd both Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett will come off the books for the Dolphins. Dansby saves $6.25 million while Burnett saves $4.45 million. Since the NFLPA already has their replacements accounted for that opens the Dolphins up to $10.7 million in salary cap space.

Assuming the Dolphins trade their highest 2nd round pick for Albert their rookie pool would be estimated to be around $6.3 million for 10 players. Since the top 51 rule still applies those players will either displace a lower cost player or only have their prorated money count towards the salary cap. Per my calculations the draft class will likely replace 5 players, each making $480,000 in P5 salary, with the bottom 5 only having bonus prorations count. So for as big as that $6.3 million figure looks the Dolphins only need around $1.9 million in cap room to really sign all these players.

While I have been critical in the past about the way the Dolphins have managed the salary cap, if this was the plan back when they cut Dansby and Burnett it was tremendous cap planning by Jeff Ireland. Nobody could really understand why Miami designated those players June 1 cuts but it clearly has left Miami with the room to absorb a franchise player like Albert and still have the cap space to function throughout the entire 2013 season. That $10.7 million is more than enough to sign rookies, bring 53 to the roster, add a Practice Squad, and have money reserved for in season injuries and subsequent moves.

So really there is nothing standing in the way of a trade for Albert besides the cut or a paycut of one player. That’s really all it will take. Like I stated when discussing the Darrelle Revis trade, if you really want the guy go get him. The contract can always sort itself out later if need be. The player has little power to block a trade or not suit up and play. Miami has tried to build a team via free agency this year to compete now. They definitely do not need Albert to sign long term to add him to the mix.

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Preparing for the Future: The AFC East

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As we lead up to the draft I thought it might be fun to start looking ahead at some teams rosters and futures to help determine likelihood of trading down, good spots for undrafted free agents, and teams that will still be shopping in the bargain bin. We start with the AFC East:

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have 44 players under contract in 2014, which is the upper tier of the NFL. The only projected starters set to be unrestricted free agent are  C Eric Wood and TE Scott Chandler, while reserves RT Sam Young, OLB Bryan Scott, DT Alan Branch, and OLB Arthur Moats will also see free agency in 2014. I have the Bills estimated to carry around $107 million in cap charges in 2014, which is a pretty safe figure considering their roster size with likely cap casualties of WR/KR/QB Brad Smith and DE Mark Anderson either this summer or next season. Clearly the Bills are in desperate need of a QB  and could be a team that would look to move up if there was one they felt they loved and needed in round 1 or 2. Because the team seems to be set in a lot of positions this may not be a great fit for undrafted players unless they played the ILB position where the Bills are completely lacking or the OLB position where a prospect could show enough to eventually displace the players set to leave next season. That, of course, depends on the defense that the team runs. If they switch to a 34 Defensive end could be a more pressing concern. In terms of positional drafting QB, DE, and LB would seem to be major areas.  If any type of cornerback comes here they have pretty much no shot of making it.

Miami Dolphins

Miami looks to be an interesting team as they head into the draft. Clearly they were big spenders in free agency and they do have 41 players under contract next season with more than enough cap room for 2014, but they have a ton of projected starters and reserves whose contracts expire at the end of the 2013 League Year. The names include DT Paul Soliai, DT Randy Starks, CB Brent Grimes, G Richie Incognito, TE Dustin Keller, S Reshad Jones,  and S Chris Clemons. That’s nearly half of the projected defensive starters. The Dolphins have clearly been built as a win now team and with that in mind they are a team that could look to make an impact in the coming weeks. By 2015 the Dolphins only have 15 players under contract, 6th lowest in the NFL as of April 18th. They are already rumored to be trading for Branden Albert from the Chiefs, a bit of a strange move since they could have kept Jake Long for probably lesser money, so they would be out at least one draft choice to make that move. I’d imagine on draft day they want a player that they think can slot in right away and play for the team. Miami has a ton of draft picks and even if they trade two away will still have 9 picks in the draft. I doubt that will draft for anything but positional need with an eye on both this year and next year, specifically improving the secondary. Considering the moving of parts that could occur after this season I would consider this a decent landing spot for UDFAs to have a as low cost active roster players or Practice Squad players to get noticed and perhaps stick around in the future.  The one negative to signing with Miami is that with so many draft picks and big name new acquisitions it will be much more difficult for a UDFA to stand out.

New England Patriots

The Patriots essentially have no draft this year. They have late picks in the 1st thru 3rd round and then don’t pick again until the 7th round.  The Patriots have a large number of free agents after this season but only 4 project as starters. The team has 44 players under contract for 2014 and limited cap space. The Patriots I think would like to find a receiver and could also look for more interior linemen as both their center and backup are free agents next season. Given that the Patriots are a “now” team I could see them trading back or out entirely and trying to stockpile picks in the future. The team is going to have holes at ILB, WR, CB, C, and potentially DT in the near future making those areas of interest, but if they don’t see the payoff this year and a more desperate team comes calling Id expect the Patriots to play the trade game and wait to reload at a later date.

New York Jets

The Jets are clearly in the midst of a massive rebuild. The team only has 36 players under contract in 2014, 8th fewest in the NFL, and of those 36 many are not likely to be here during or after this season. Of their current projected starting lineup 5 offensive players are free agents after 2013 and 3 defensive starters will be free agents. By 2015 over half of the current projected starters will have their current contracts expire a number that does not include Mark Sanchez and Santonio Holmes, players who are as good as gone as soon as the cap allows. This is a long term plan with no real quick fix here. If you notice the Jets signed no long term deals this past offseason, the longest contract running all of 3 years. The Jets did not go off the deep end restructuring contracts and did not extend the terms of Antonio Cromartie’s contract for added cap relief nor get deeper on C Nick Mangold for a quick fix in 2013. They did not seem to approach a number of former starters about coming back, including Dustin Keller and Mike DeVito, both of whom signed reasonably priced contracts elsewhere. Those are often signs of a team  with plans of jettisoning a number of players and playing the compensatory pick game as best they can. The Jets are trying to move CB Darrelle Revis and with all the holes on the team there is no reason why they should not do it. This is a long term rebuild which means a ton of draft selections are of the utmost importance and it’s a great home for UDFA’s. The only position where the Jets will have stability is at the DE position where Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples look like long term building blocks. Otherwise this is a clear BAP draft and I would think the Jets will actively shop players, both big name and small name, all summer long.

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