Detroit Lions

The Cost of Trading Ndamukong Suh

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

According to Scott Bischoff the Detroit Lions are discussing the possibility of trading DT Ndamukong Suh in order to move up in the draft.

Suh has one of the most unique contract situations in the NFL. Between draft status and poor salary cap management by the Lions, Suh’s cap charge in 2014 is $22.4 million. Suh will be a free agent in 2015, but because he has a voidable year for 2015 in his contract, failing to re-sign Suh would result in a charge of $9.737 million against the salary cap in 2015. Due to the heavy proration in that 2015 year the cost to cut or trade Suh this season would leave the Lions with $19.5 million in dead cap.  The Lions can’t franchise Suh due to the cost so they can not even threaten to block him from free agency. Suh, who recently switched agents and wants a new contract, has all the leverage in the world to force the Lions to accept a player friendly contract.

Suh’s cap charge is nearly $7 million higher than the next highest defensive tackle, Gerald McCoy of the Buccaneers. McCoy was selected one spot behind Suh in the draft, but Tampa did not touch his contract to create the type of leverage that Suh has with the Lions.  Defensive tackle is not a premier pay position (the highest veteran contract belongs to the Bengals’ Geno Atkins at $10.665 million per year with just $15 million fully guaranteed) and teams should have been aware that by drafting the position highly they were already locking themselves in at a top of the market price for a player who never stepped foot in the NFL. Any reworking of the contract will just make the situation unbearable and the Lions did it twice with Suh.

Suh is likely looking at the teams salary cap situation and asking for a contract that would increase, perhaps substantially, from his current $12.9 million a year contract. The Lions have already gone well beyond the norms of a positional salary with wide receiver Calvin Johnson so Suh should believe they would do the same for him.  However, with so much money tied up already in Johnson and QB Matthew Stafford, it is arguable that the Lions can be competitive for the long haul at these salary levels. They may view the situation with Suh as one that cant be resolved and thus would be better for them to move forward with a much lower cost rookie player at an impact position on the roster.

While it is easy to get wrapped up in the $19.5 million dead cap charge that Suh would leave the Lions with, if we play the scenario out it Detroit would save significant cap dollars by trading Suh. If the Lions allow Suh to play out his contract and he becomes a free agent the Lions will spend a total of $32.15 million in cap dollars on Suh for just the 2014 season. That total is made up of the enormous cap figure in 2014 and the dead money in 2015. If they trade Suh the team would take on a $19.475 million hit this year and have Suh off the books in 2015. They save $12.675 million over a two year period.

If the deal would be something like Suh and the number 10 pick for the number 2 pick in the draft they would add in the ballpark of an additional $1.8 million in 2014 and $2.3 million in 2015 to their anticipated draft allotments in terms of cap spending. All told the team would create around $8 million in additional cap space over the two year period rather than having Suh and the 10th pick in the draft. In terms of cash they would avoid paying Suh his $12.55 million salary  while picking up around an extra $7 million in bonus commitments, a savings of around $5.5 million in cash. These are real gains for the Lions especially since the cost of an extension for Suh would now be gone.

The other possibility, if the Lions are floating this rumor, is that Detroit is using the rumor to let Suh know that they are not afraid of the salary cap charges associated with moving him off the team. If Suh did become a free agent in 2015 I have a hard time believing he would make that much more than Atkins on the open market. With Detroit he has leverage but elsewhere he will not. This might be Detroit’s best strategy to bring him to the negotiating table with realistic expectations.

If they are serious about trading Suh, there are few teams who could take on the cost. The team acquiring Suh would have to set aside $12.675 million in cap space for him. There are 14 teams that currently have the room to take him on. The teams with draft selections higher than the Lions that have the space are the Texans, Jaguars, Browns, Buccaneers, and Bills, with only the top three having premier draft selections. If a team could sign Suh to an extension that could extend the pool, but if Suh is set on a price he may not come down quick enough to allow that to happen quickly.

[adsenseyu2]

[adsenseyu4]

[subscribe2]

Ndamukong Suh Has A Tremendous Amount of Contract Leverage

Posted on by Andrew Cohen

[adsenseyu1]

Jay Z proved his worth in the agency industry when he broke the bank for his client Robinson Cano a few months back. He’s now in a great position to do the same on the gridiron with his newest client:  Lions DT Ndamukong Suh. 

The Lions released Wide Receiver Nate Burleson and Safety Louis Delmas earlier today, gaining $11.08 million in cap space in the process. This was an essential move for the Lions. Not only were they over the projected 2014 cap before these releases, but they also intend to sign Suh—who will become a free agent after the 2014 season (his 2015 contract voids 5 days after the Super Bowl)—to a long-term extension.

Jay Z and his newly founded Roc Nation Sports have inherited an excellent negotiating position.  Because Suh restructured his contract each of the past two offseasons, his current 2014 cap hit is $22,412,500. But more importantly, because his 2015 contract automatically voids, the Lions will be left with a $9,737,500 dead money hit if Suh decides to leave via 2015 free agency.

So what does this all mean? It means that whoever is negotiating this contract on Suh’s behalf (Darren Heitner of Forbes and Sports Agent Blog noted yesterday that because Jay Z isn’t currently certified as an NFLPA Contract Advisor, either agent Kimberly Ann Miale or reps from CAA will be handling the on-field negotiations) will have a tremendous amount of leverage in the upcoming negotiations.

Suh is already the NFLs highest paid DT from his rookie deal, so the amount of money that his reps will attempt to secure is anybody’s guess. Factor in his monstrous 2014 cap hit and the inevitable dead money that the Lions will have to eat if they let him walk, and this all adds up to Suh setting a new salary precedent for DTs.

As  I’ve mentioned before, Lions GM Martin Mayhew is on thin ice in Detroit. He’ll likely be out as GM if Detroit doesn’t make the playoffs in 2014, so he probably isn’t thinking about the long-term implications of his moves and the cap mess that they might leave behind.

Suh just turned 27 years old last month, and should have multiple years left in his prime. With all the leverage his camp has, be prepared to see Suh receive a massive annual salary (greater than his current $12.94 million per year), as well as a colossal signing bonus (my guess is that it will be around $25 million).

Andrew Cohen
@ajcohen03
ajcohen3@gmail.com

Lions Release Two- Gain $11.08 Million in Cap Space

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

One day after the cap strapped Saints got into the action of player cuts the equally cap strapped Lions followed suit with the release of Wide Receiver Nate Burleson and Safety Louis Delmas, saving the team $11.08 million in cap space and moving them from about $5.3 million over the salary cap to $5.7 million under the projected salary cap.

Burleson was scheduled to earn $5.5 million in 2014 with a salary cap charge of $7,513,645. His contract had been restructured multiple times to lead to that cap charge and will leave the tea with a salary cap charge that is slightly over $2 million.

Delmas has signed a short term extension last year that was essentially a one year prove it deal. After earning just $1.715 million in 2013 his salary was set to balloon to $6 million, a number that included a $500,000 roster bonus that was to be paid on the 5th day of the League Year. He will only count for $500,000 in dead money.

It is possible that the Lions could consider bringing both players back once free agency is in full swing.  I had assumed the Lions would rework both of the deals of these players, but they opted for the release instead. By being released now both players can begin to negotiate with other NFL teams and likely gauge whatever value they may have.

[adsenseyu4]

[adsenseyu2]

[subscribe2]

Lions Cut Ties With WR Mike Thomas

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

The Detroit Lions have cut WR Mike Thomas, whom they had traded for less than just one season ago. I had in my notes that he had $1 million in guaranteed salary for the year which was confirmed by Joel Corry on Twitter

Unless the guarantee’s of the contract were somehow voided by some action by Thomas, the move comes as  a bot of a surprise. Detroit had half a season to evaluate him last year and all winter to watch film to decide if he was worth going further in on. I would imagine many teams would have released Thomas before his guarantees vested on April 5th. Had the Lions done that they would have saved the team $1.05 million in cash and salary cap space. Thomas also had a $50,000 workout bonus in his contract.

Thomas was originally drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars in fourth round of the 2009 NFL draft. After two seasons in the league the Jaguars decided to extend Thomas, giving him a 3 year contract extension worth just under $15.7 million. Thomas’ play immediately declined with his production in 2011 dropping to a career low 44 receptions and 415 yards. By 2012 Thomas was demoted and caught just 13 passes for 80 yards in 7 games for the Jaguars. The Jaguars traded Thomas mid-season.

The mistake of extending Thomas early is the other side of the coin when people consider the benefits of the early extension. Had Thomas simply been allowed to play out his rookie contract he would have been released in 2012 with little consequence. Instead he seemed to be a player that played for a contract and once he received it he was finished with giving the same level of effort.

The Jaguars also whiffed with the guaranteed salary on Thomas as well, becoming convinced that 2011 was an aberration. Had Jacksonville cut him prior to the start of the 2012 season they would have avoided payment of a $3.5 million dollar roster bonus as well as guaranteeing his $1.45 million dollar salary. Unlike the Lions, though, the Jaguars do not have salary cap issues. By failing to cut him in April the Lions will gain no effective cap room in the release due to the guarantees in the contract. He was set to earn $1.45 million in salary and will be replaced by a player in the cap calculations making more than the difference between his salary and guaranteed salary.

All told, Thomas ended up receiving an additional $7,935,000 because of the extension and failure of both the Jaguars and Lions to cut him before his guarantees vested to full guarantees. Technically Thomas has been released before even playing a game during the actual extension years of the contract. Thomas should be be “buyer beware” at this point for any teams that might consider reaching out to him in 2013.

Best & Worst Contracts: The Detroit Lions

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

A few weeks ago Jason LaCanfora published a list of best and worst contracts in the NFL so I thought it might make a good idea for us to do the same here at OTC, with a team by team approach. I’ll try to be a bit more analytical in terms of why money was paid and how it fits in the market, but the general premise is the same. The one key difference is outside of restructured rookie contracts under the old CBA we will only use veteran contracts as there is a big difference between best draft picks and best contracts.  Please note that there is a difference between a bad player and a bad contract when discussing some of the selections. Clicking on a players name will take you to his salary cap page.

dominic raiolaBest Contract: Dominic Raiola

I have had a difficult time coming up with names on some teams, but none more difficult that the Lions (though I have a feeling the Panthers will prove even harder). From a cap standpoint it is really hard for me to find a bright light for this team. Outside of the rookie contracts there just is not much good on the team. They have overvalued so many players relative to their skill level and for those valued well the contract structures have become a mess.

So why Raiola?  Of all the guys on lower level deals he is at least a proven commodity. He has been in the NFL forever and gives the Lions a steady force on their offensive line. Plus the Lions went in and slashed his pay for the year dropping his salary from over $4 million to $1 million. Due to prior prorated money he will still carry a cap charge that is about middle of the pack in the NFL, but he will play every snap and give Matt Stafford a familiar person to work with as Stafford tries to improve on last season.

That doesn’t mean the Lions got it totally right with Raiola. Had they released him as a procedural move and then re-signed him he would have qualified for the Minimum Salary Benefit and saved Detroit around $400,000 in cap space while allowing him to earn the same cash compensation.

ndamukong suhWorst Contract: Ndamukong Suh

Trust me I understand that the old CBA dictated Suh’s salary and to some extent his contract structure. What the old CBA did not dictate was multiple restructures that will cripple a teams salary cap well beyond the terms of the original contract. When you are a team that is in salary cap trouble as the Lions have been and continue to be, tough decisions are necessary. You either need to release players for cap relief or begin to restructure contracts to keep your team intact.

However, when you select option B you have to use the restructure on either older players that you won’t re-sign or younger players where the restructure will not completely cripple your negotiations. The Lions were always going to re-sign Matt Stafford. While the restructures did them no favors his cap numbers were still within the QB market plus its a high priced position to begin with. Stafford has the upside to be a top 5 QB which means you have a chance at a Super Bowl if he realizes the upside. Suh presents a different case.

Suh does not play at a high priced position. Suh does not play at a game changing position. Suh is not the best DT in the NFL and likely never will be. Even after multiple restructures Suh’s cap hit this season is 3rd in the NFL. Next season, his final under contract, it jumps to over $21 million.  That is $8 million more than the next highest player and almost $5 million more than the Cleveland Browns entire spending on DT’s in 2014. The Browns have the 2nd largest spend at the position in the NFL to the Lions.

The Defensive Tackle market maxes out around $9 million a year unless Geno Atkins, the best in the league, signs for more money with the Bengals. Suh should maybe earn a maximum of $8 million, but the handling of his contract has completely compromised the Lions position. The cost of releasing Suh next season is nearly $20 million dollars. The cost of letting Suh become a free agent in 2015 is $9.7 million dollars. Those numbers are the fault of the Lions managerial decisions not the CBA. Gerald McCoy, another high pick DT, will only carry $5.2 million in dead money if cut in his last contract year, $14 million or so less than Suh.

What leverage do you have at this point?  He is due to earn over $11 million and why should he give the Lions any discount. They can’t threaten to cut him. They can’t even threaten to let him play it out. The costs of him playing his contract out and not extending him is not workable. They have backed themselves into a corner to where Suh will likely be the highest paid DT in the NFL because the Lions have no other options. They had those options open to them before and can only blame themselves for whatever dollars they are forced to pay in the future.

Check out Our Other Best & Worst Contract Articles

AFC East: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans

AFC West: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins

NFC North: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers (July 19)

[subscribe2]

[adsenseyu2]

Don’t Blame the Old CBA for the Lions Salary Cap Problems

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

Sam, a fellow amateur capologist, brought up a point to me on Twitter that I had been hearing a lot in regards to Matt Stafford and how the old CBA was a considerable factor in the current cap values of Stafford and the Lions cap problems. Immediately I thought what a good topic for discussion. While the old CBA could certainly hamstring teams for players who bust or fail to live up to lofty expectations, that really was not the case for Stafford and the Lions.

Lets go back in time a bit and look at the backend of Stafford’s contract when as it stood when originally signed. We’ll compare it to the other number 1 draft picks that were QB’s selected close to him in JaMarcus Russell and Sam Bradford. Mainly what we are interested in here are the final two years of the contract.

Stafford

Russell

Bradford

Total Value

$72,000,000

$61,000,000

$78,000,000

Final Two Years Salary

$22,500,000

$15,185,000

$27,000,000

Final Two Years Cap

$29,460,000

$25,800,900

$34,190,000

Sunk Prorations

$3,480,000

$5,307,950

$3,595,000

Dead Money (Year 5)

$6,960,000

$10,615,900

$7,190,000

Clearly upon signing Russell’s was the worst deal for the team with 42% of the contract value being applied to the cap in the last two years  of his deal and dead money in year 5 equaling 17% of the total contract value. That was the Raiders and nobody looks at them as reasonable for anything when it comes to contracts, so it should have been expected. But Stafford and Bradford had nearly identical deals. Bradford’s was higher but in terms of sunk money, which is the prorated money per year that would need to be accounted for in an extension, they were about equal as was the cost to cut in the 5th year of the contract.

Those numbers are CBA related. From there everything done to the contract is the sole responsibility of the teams. The Lions approached Stafford in 2011 for his first contract renegotiation because they needed salary cap relief. He converted $8.475 million of his base salary into a prorated bonus to help the team. Just one year later the Lions again needed to tweak the contract, this time adding a void year to the contract to help with the prorated salary. Stafford also hit some moderate contract escalators that raised the total value of his deal, but those should have minimal impact on the sunk costs in the grand scheme of things.  By the time they were finished with the contract Stafford’s contract now compared as follows:

Stafford

Russell

Bradford

Total Value

$73,500,000

$61,000,000

$78,000,000

Final Two Years Salary

$23,000,000

$15,185,000

$27,000,000

Final Two Years Cap

$39,640,000

$25,800,900

$34,190,000

Sunk Prorations

$8,320,000

$5,307,950

$3,595,000

Dead Money (Year 5)

$19,361,250

$10,615,900

$7,190,000

The Lions were the ones responsible for turning the Stafford contract into a bigger disaster than  Russell’s head scratcher with Oakland. The sunk cost in Stafford’s contracts following the renegotiations was just a touch less than Russell and Bradford combined. The dead money associated with Stafford’s deal made him un-moveable even if he flopped. This had nothing to do with the CBA. It had everything to do with the Lions poorly managing their finances. Now, even in an extension, the Lions can get little cap relief due to the high prorated costs nor could they obtain any leverage in a negotiation with Stafford. Stafford’s cap charges over the next 5 years will be similar to those of a $19 million dollar a year player.

Some will point to the Lions being forced into such restructures because they picked Calvin Johnson and Ndamukung Suh at the top of the draft in the old CBA. That’s true, but didn’t the Rams pick Bradford, Jason Smith, and Chris Long back to back to back at the top of the draft?  They sure did and managed to make out ok with Smith being sent packing last year to New York. The Chiefs had three top 5 picks from 2008 thru 2010 and didn’t have these same issues early on in the contract life of the players. Both the Rams and Chiefs have been able to spend on talent. The Lions keep digging a deeper hole trying to improve.

The Lions didn’t make difficult decisions when they had to. Whether it was holding off on adding a piece here or there to a team that has won all of 20 games the last 3 seasons, playing a little more hardball with Calvin Johnson on his extension or being more proactive with veterans who were not cutting it, the Lions created the situation. The CBA didn’t help but other teams have gotten by just fine under similar circumstances and blaming the CBA just does not cut it with the Lions.

[subscribe2]

Thoughts on Lions Extension of Matthew Stafford

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

[adsenseyu1]

According to multiple sources the Detroit Lions agreed to an extension with QB Matthew Stafford worth $75 million over the next 5 years. Stafford was due to earn $23.5 million on his old contract so technically the deal will be valued as a 3 year deal worth just over $17.1 million per season in new money. According to Pro Football Talk Stafford will receive a $27.5 million dollar signing bonus.

While the total structure of the contract is not known the cap relief the Lions will get from Stafford is not as significant as some may expect. The Lions had reworked his deal so many times in the past that it is one of the messier contracts in the NFL. Despite having just $75 million in cash flows over the next 5 years, the salary cap portion of the contract is actually $94.3 million dollars, due to the high prorated amounts remaining on his contract.

From a cap perspective, assuming PFT’s source is good (and there is no reason to think it isn’t) the most he can reduce his cap this year is from $20.82 million to $14.535 million. The contract reportedly contains $43 million in guarantees which would likely be all paid out between 2013 and 2015. In that case Stafford’s cap charges will most probably run in the $17-$19 million dollar range in 2014 and 2015. It is possible that the Lions could try to drop his charge lower in 2014 as the team faces a difficult salary cap situation and take a huge hit in 2015. Again the lowest they can go in 2014 is in the range of $14.5 million.  The backend of the deal should have cap hits around $20 million.

The cap value of the deal is right at the upper echelon of players which is going to make Stafford, who has had one winning season in his career, one of the most overpriced players in the NFL, unless he can turn things around starting this season. I had graded Stafford very negatively based on his play last season and consider him, at this stage of his career, more of a volume producer than a good player.His $18.87 effective cap per year on this contract is actually higher than Aaron Rodgers’ who will carry a cap value of $18.68 over the life of his deal and $17.75 over the next 5 seasons. It is a terrific illustration of a well managed club versus a poorly managed one. Based on the reported numbers Stafford should be a lock to remain on the Lions thru at least 2015, even if he did not have guarantees to protect him. In 2015 he will carry over $19 million in dead money if released. In 2016 the Lions will face $11 million in dead money charges, a high number but perhaps one that could be acceptable if Stafford fails to improve the fortunes of the team.

The Lions really have nowhere to go with Stafford because of their cap management issues. If anything Stafford probably could have gotten more money out of them, but instead he took a tradeoff where he will only be under contract for 3 additional years, getting the opportunity to cash in yet again before he turns 30. As a former number 1 pick with a very live arm he will have no problem finding work regardless of the results (see Carson Palmer for an example) and if he improves so will his earning. Realistically it would be hard to expect the Lions to compete for a Super Bowl the way the Ravens did last season so Stafford was likely not going to gain too much this year and would risk the threat of injury. The framework of the contract is likely centered upon the short term cap relief deal the New York Jets gave Mark Sanchez in 2012, though it is hard to say that Sanchez gave the Jets a discount, which Stafford may have done here.