A Look at Pricing Points for Richard Sherman and the Seahawks

[adsenseyu1]

I had a few comments today about CB Richard Sherman of the Seattle Seahawks and what he could be worth in the future to Seattle, so I thought why not take a look at Sherman and his potential value. Sherman is currently in the 3rd year of a rookie contract signed in 2011 and can be extended following the season, so this is clearly a big year for him.

The Performance

I think most people universally recognized Sherman as the best cornerback in the NFL last season.  I maintain a few different evaluation criteria by which I look at cornerbacks, usually using the raw data from Pro Football Focus. One such evaluation matrix looks at corners in four categories: percent passes caught, QBR against,  percent active breakups ((PD + Int)/Tgt), and YAC.

Last season, which was Sherman’s breakout year, he ranked 5th, 2nd, 1st, and 17th among corners with at least 50% playtime. The only other players with three top 10 rankings in the categories were Casey Heyward of the Green Bay Packers, who ranked 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 62nd, and Antonio Cromartie of the Jets who ranked 3rd, 12th, 7th, and 8th.  Here are how the three stack up compared to last years’ league average.

corner performance

Comparing Sherman and Heyward is a bit difficult (besides defensive scheme differences) because they cover different types of receivers. Heyward plays primarily in the slot, which is a reason why his YAC is so poor. Often when you trail a guy in the slot the player is going to catch the ball running and keep going. Likewise that also can improve the QBR since the formula takes into account things like TD’s which more often than not hit outside targets.

In terms of veteran talent really nobody came close. Players like Champ Bailey and Brandon Flowers were nowhere near these levels and Cortland Finnegan was awful. Of course Darrelle Revis was injured. So in terms of outside play Sherman was the clear cut number 1 corner.

Now Revis’ 2009 season is considered the gold standard of cornerbacks while his work in 2010 and 2011 continued to be excellent once fully recovered from injury. Using Revis’ numbers from 2009 through 2011 we come up with some interesting takeaways comparing the two players.

sherman vs revis

With the exception of reception rates, Sherman’s 2012 season compares favorably with Revis over the 3 year prime period he had with the Jets. While none of this means Sherman is a better player I think it at least brings up the thought that it is worth looking deeper into the stats to see how they compare.

Another set of stats that I keep are stats that deal with expected versus actual performance. These numbers are based on expected WR performance, which is to be targeted 20.2% of the time on a pass play with an outside catch rater of 58.6% for 14.2 YPC. I also factor in slot play which is 64.9% for 12.6 YPC.  Using these numbers I calculate what is called the “Shutdown Stats” which identify how many receptions and yards a player prevents his target from getting in a game.

A second category Team Category which was I considered when Nnamdi Asomugha was playing dreadful in Philadelphia in 2011 when thrown on but he was still rarely being thrown at.  This assumes that the corner plays across from an average player and that “shutting down” his opponent doesn’t necessarily lead to an incompletion, just a throw to a different target. This should be a consideration  if paying one corner means bringing in below average talent at the other corner spots. Few teams are so dominant with one main WR that it can eliminate the effectiveness of the highly paid cornerback.

sherman vs revis 2

Under this set of criteria Sherman falls short of Revis at his peak, though these are still exceptional numbers. The reason for the disparity between Sherman and Revis in the team categories has to do more with the notion of what is typically called a shutdown corner.

Revis is extremely unique in that despite his reputation he got thrown on often, particularly in the 2009 season. In 2009 Revis was targeted nearly 20% of the time he was in coverage. In contrast Asomugha, who was always considered a “shutdown” player, was targeted less than 7% of the time in Oakland. Revis’ numbers were more in line with Sherman’s over the next two seasons. Sherman was targeted 14.6% of the time last season.

So even though he does not match with Revis in this criteria these are still excellent numbers and he has done it for two years in a row. The team yard discrepancy is just a byproduct of being targeted less than Revis and considering the system in Seattle is excellent the numbers are skewed because the secondary targets are all well covered, not all that different from the Revis/Cromartie tandem in NY.

Recent veteran players that have put up numbers like Sherman’s were those who earned big money contracts or were named Franchise Players.

The Marketplace

There may be no more difficult market to balance right now than the cornerback market. To say it crashed would be the understatement of the year. Players that many thought could be potentially franchised were signing $4 and $5 million dollar per year contracts. It stands to be seen whether or not this was people like myself simply overvaluing a group of players or if the new spread offenses are convincing teams that overspending on one player is not as important as balance in the secondary.  Sherman’s new contract will likely put that in perspective.

At the top of the market is Revis at $16 million a season.  Not only is Revis’ contract an outlier but for Revis to get that money, which he was desperate to get as it was extremely important to he and his agents to be the highest paid defensive player, he gave up all guaranteed money. Considering he is coming off an ACL injury that is a very risky move for a player.

If the high end market still exists Sherman will probably work from the contracts given to Brandon Carr, Brandon Flowers and Cortland Finnegan who would be the young player comparables. Also in that upper echelon pay group is Champ Bailey who is significantly older and has more of his money tied in incentives, but because of age I don’t consider Bailey to be a consideration.

In addition I think an important contract to look at is the contract Revis had leading into 2013 with the New York Jets. That contract was specifically designed to be a somewhat “fair market” value contract when an outlier existed. In that case it was Asomugha earning over $16 million a year from the Raiders.

Corner cap chart

The Price

I think the fact that Sherman is on the Seahawks will work to his advantage in setting a price for a few reasons. One is that he is incredibly important to their defense and at its core the Seahawks are a defensive team. He will turn 26 in 2014 and will be entering the prime of career so there should be less concern than there would be with an older player.

But most important is that Sherman has a specific player to point to within the organization as a reason for holding the Seahawks feet to the fire. That player is WR Percy Harvin. With one season left on his contract the Seahawks turned around and gave Harvin, nowhere as accomplished of a player as Sherman,  a stunning contract worth nearly $13 million a year. In the past Seattle has also overextended a bit for TE Zach Miller, WR Sidney Rice, and RB Marshawn Lynch.

In general I would say that they are a team that clearly pays for what they believe is future performance rather than relying on past performance as an indicator of worth. So the data points are specifically there with this team to receive a top of the market contract.

Though Sherman is not Revis I think that he should make a strong push for a 3 year payout similar to what Revis received from the Jets. That would shatter the $33 million threshold for the other players. Because Sherman will have one low cost year remaining on his contract, meaning his three year payout can be spread among 4 years, the Seahawks can likely get the cap dollars to work out in his contract moreso than if they wait until after the 2014 season. I don’t know if he can reach the annual value of Revis’ old contract given the market conditions but $11 million a year I think would actually be acceptable to both sides.

Remember that both sides should have a reason to get a deal done this offseason. In the case of the Seahawks a $55 million dollar extension signed next year will really be a 6 year $56.4 million dollar deal for cap purposes, a bargain compared to the contracts that were earned in free agency. It’s the lone justification they had for Harvin’s contract. From Sherman’s perspective not only does he get money up front but he eliminates the Franchise tag from play, which impacts his ability to earn a third contract in his early 30s, and the uncertainty of free agency. Though teams will surely bid high for Sherman will they overbid or will they consider decent players earning $4 or $5 million as a baseline to work from?

The Changing Dynamic of the Seahawks

Seattle, which finally found success in 2012 after years of rebuilding, is now entering a phase where philosophically they may need to make some changes for salary cap purposes.   Seattle has been able to be active in free agency and trade market because of having so many quality players on relatively low cost rookie contracts.

The process has already started with extensions given to DE Red Bryant and  C Max Unger in 2012 and S Kam Chancellor in 2013. Those were players on 4th, 2nd, and 5th round contracts that are now either top 10 or close to it contracts.  Sherman has been paid as a 5th rounder and will now be paid as one of the top players at the position. Also up soon for contracts are S Earl Thomas (FA in 2015), who is going to want more than Chancellor,  T Russell Okung (FA in 2016), CB Brandon Browner (FA in 2014), and of course QB Russell Wilson (extension can occur in 2015).

Seattle already has a high payroll in 2014 which will likely be quickly solved by the releases of some combination of veterans such as Rice, Miller, Cliff Avril, and Chris Clemons, whose salary cap numbers will be replaced by the extended players. But once those salaries are replaced by younger home grown Seahawks the ability to jump into free agency and trades may be severely compromised.

As a fan of the Jets I have very closely watched a similar situation play out in New York. It was not long ago that the Jets went to back to back AFC Championship games with a roster that was built through a combination of quality relatively low cost draft picks, trading for rookie contract players and overextending somewhat in free agency. Eventually those low cost players- Revis, Nick Mangold, D’Brickashaw Ferguson,   David Harris, Antonio Cromartie, and Santonio Holmes- all became high priced veterans over the course of two offseasons and the whole dynamic changed.

Now the Jets have had other problems beyond those signings, but once you move into major extensions for young talent it leaves you no margin for error. They were unable to bring in other pieces due to long term cap considerations and had no choice but to draft well to replenish the roster with low cost studs. Unfortunately for the Jets their drafts from 2008 thru 2010 proved to be complete disasters. Of 13 players drafted only 1 is currently starting for the Jets (G Vlad Ducasse) and only 3 are on the Jets (Ducasse, CB Kyle Wilson, and QB Mark Sanchez). With the salary cap the way it is it is almost impossible to have success when you have no low cost contributors on the team. It only took two seasons for the Jets to go from Super Bowl contenders to being considered one of the worst teams in the NFL and in part it’s because the team could not fall back on what got them to the dance in terms of trades and free agency because the cap no longer allowed it. At best they could hit the bargain bin for 1 year contracts for “prove it” players like S Laron Landry.

With that in mind the 2012 to 2014 draft classes will be of the utmost importance to the Seahawks. Wilson will be extended early, but almost everyone else could be in a position where they have to play their deals out. You need a high hit rate to make up for all these new contracts that will be hitting the books next season.  Turning to free agency for anything more than a stopgap will be difficult. Trading away draft picks will be very difficult. It’s a good situation to have but it’s one that teams have to begin preparing for long before the new deals actually hit the books for the team.

Follow @Jason_OTC

[subscribe2]

Jets Release QB Tim Tebow

[adsenseyu1]

The New York Jets announced this morning that they have waived QB Tim Tebow. The Jets acquired Tebow in a much publicized trade last season in which they gave a 4th round pick to the Denver Broncos as well as an agreement to pay the Broncos $2,531,875 in cash as repayment for a salary advance the Broncos had paid Tebow in 2011. The Jets still owe the Broncos $1,531,875 of that total which will count as dead money on the teams salary cap unless Tebow is claimed by another team which is highly unlikely. The move brings the Jets dead money for the season to about $21.6 million, which, by my estimates, is 3rd highest in the NFL behind the Raiders and Jaguars.

This will mark the second player in the last week that the Jets have removed from the roster that will continue to cost the team actual cash. CB Darrelle Revis is still owed $1 million by the Jets due to a roster bonus that was earned in early March. The Jets could have avoided that payment had they been able to come to a trade agreement sooner with the Buccaneers. Had the Jets waived Tebow late last season when the Jets made the decision to play Greg McElroy over Tebow they may have been able to avoid the cash payment owed to Denver since the Jaguars likely would have claimed the QB, though without knowing the specifics of the salary advance repayment I can only guess that is the case.

Some will question the timing of the move because it was well known that Tebow would not be in the Jets plans this season and, that being the case, releasing him before free agency began gives the player the most chance to find a home in the NFL. But this is just the way things work in the NFL. I am sure the Jets spent the better part of the weekend desperately trying to find a team to surrender a draft pick for Tebow. When they found no takers the only option left is the release of the player. Tebow is one of many that will be released over the next week due to draft happenings. Back in 2010 the Jets released G Alan Faneca right after the draft when they drafted Vlad Ducasse, who the Jets felt would take over Faneca’s job.

Though some will say that this is happening because the Jets drafted QB Geno Smith in the 2nd round, most likely it was a decision made long before the draft. As a young QB Smith is logically replacing either Matt Simms or McElroy on the roster now, not Tebow, and then Mark Sanchez in the future. . Maybe it makes for a convenient story but my guess is Tim was going to be released today no matter who was drafted. Even in the weeks leading up to this GM John Idzik was always hesitant to speak about Tebow, much in the same way he spoke about Revis. Today is the first day the Jets can begin Phase II of their offseason workout program in which coaches are allowed to begin to instruct players on a practice field, which is something that saw no need to do with Tebow.

At the least this will get the story of Sanchez’ future off the front pages for a day or two. Sanchez has a hefty guarantee in his contract and could be replaced by Smith as early as the first game of the year. While many are of the opinion that Sanchez’ cash guarantee protects him remember that Faneca, as mentioned above, was paid $5.5 million to walk away from the Jets after they drafted Ducasse. Faneca was owed $5.25 million in fully guaranteed base salary plus a $250,000 workout bonus. Faneca was an example of a freak situation as his salary vested right after the Super Bowl, but because of the special rules of the uncapped year the Jets were unable to release him before the contract became guaranteed. The Jets did not have the 2009 cap space to execute the move. So all things considered the money for Sanchez is not going to be an obstacle, but most likely they will hope a team will trade for him over the coming months with the Jets eating a good portion of the salary.

At the end of the day the Jets ended up paying $4,104,375 for Tebows services in 2012 for about 150 yards of total offensive production. That is one of the many reasons that GM Mike Tannenbaum ended up losing his job last season and the Jets are left with the task of cleaning up a roster filled with untalented and overpaid players. The release of Tebow clears up $1.055 million in cap room, which will lead to an effective gain of $575,000 in cap space once he is replaced on the roster by the current 52nd player, who makes $480,000.

[adsenseyu2]

Answering Feedback on Likelihood of a Revis Holdout

[adsenseyu1]

I promise that this will be the last Revis posting for awhile, but Ive gotten so many questions and comments, mainly from my fellow Jets fans, about how he is going to hold out again that I just wanted to discuss what I think will actually happen assuming he is perfectly healthy.

The first question you have to ask yourself is what does Revis really have to gain by holding out?  His cash flows each year are $16 million. That is an extremely high amount of money to chance losing, especially in this market. Even without his injury the potential teams that were going to be interested in Revis at that cost were few. With defensive contracts trending downward as a whole there is really no avenue for Revis to get a raise. He would have to do something other worldly for the Bucs to even consider a raise. He will likely never have a year as good as he did in 2009 again and that was the best a corner has ever played in the history of the game. He would need to be even better to justify approaching for a raise.

Others have mentioned that he knows he wont get a raise but will hold out for more guaranteed money. Again I would think there is a slim chance to this. A player of Revis’ stature, if healthy, is most likely not going to get cut, so he already has his guarantee.  Holding out risks your offseason bonuses, which are worth $3 million and also gets the player a terrible reputation.

From a marketing perspective Revis is trying to make himself into a brand that makes money beyond the field itself. For better or for worse Revis has been able to spin his tenure with the Jets as Revis being in the right and the Jets being in the wrong. Whether it be that they refused to give him the years most get as a rookie or that they refused to pay him for playing well, the holdouts were always spun to be the Jets fault. Last year he convinced most of the media that the Jets really just gave him a band-aid contract and were going back on their word when they forced him to play on that contract. On his way out the door he made sure to make it known that he wanted to be a Jet, would have taken the same deal, but the Jets were too cheap and didn’t even want him to stay.

Now that Revis Island has a new home the same techniques won’t work. At some point people begin to look at the player if the same thing occurs with two franchises. Though a different type of situation this was similar to Terrell Owens stay in multiple cities. Once it was the team but by the time he is doing sit ups in his driveway everyone pretty much turned the other way when it came to discussing him. Owens was able to punch his ticket to Dallas but if Revis Island cant relocate a third time it makes it impossible to win back those fans.

Now that doesn’t mean Revis won’t try to get more guaranteed money it just wont come in the form of a holdout. The NFL is all about precedence. You look at other players to come up with pricing points on a player. You look at how a team likes to structure deals to understand the way you need to work with that team. Remember in Jerry Maguire when Jerry signs the number 1 pick but his father says they don’t do signed deals but instead just shake hands?  Jerry (much to his dismay) shakes his hand because he needed to play ball on his field. The same holds true when you approach Tampa to negotiate. You don’t ask for bonus money. You simply begin on a yearly cash basis.

But the Buccaneers did tip their hand last year when they restructured the contracts of Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson at the end of the 2012 season. Neither player had bonus money in their original contracts but both players received large bonuses in which their 2013 salary was almost all converted to a prorated bonus in order for the Buccaneers to create huge cap room to go out and have a big offseason acquiring Revis and Dashon Goldson.

My guess is what will happen is that Revis’ agents will approach the team in December (and remember Revis’ agents are the same ones who represent Jackson), point out that their client is healthy and how Revis understands he takes up a large cap percentage next year but wants to help the team win in the offseason as well. Ideally it would be great if at the time the Bucs were a 7-5 or 8-6 type team. A team that looks decent enough to get in the playoffs but not good enough to where you think you can just stick with the team the way it is in 2014. Its possible that they could wait until the new year as well if the team looks like a playoff team.

They will attempt to convince the Buccaneers to reduce Revis’ base salary from $13 million to $855,000 and prorate the difference at a charge of $2.429 million a year. Such a move would reduce Revis’ cap from $16 million in 2014 to $6.284 million. If done in December the Bucs would also lose $2.429 million in 2013 carry over, making the net gain $7.287 million in cap space. That money would be enough to sign a pass rusher or a Mike Vick  type QB in the event Josh Freeman can’t get the job done.

That $7.287 million in cap savings would become the dead money charge for Revis in 2015 giving him some added layer of protection towards reaching the real milestone of seeing the third year of the contract. Its very close to the same level of dead money that Jackson and Nicks now have in the third years of their contracts, making the format likely acceptable to the Buccaneers front office since its simply following the path through a door that they already opened.  Who knows maybe the two sides have even discussed the possibility of this since it was done so recently for others, but if the Bucs say no there might be some grumbling behind closed doors but it wont amount to anything more than that.

[adsenseyu2]

The Risks and Real Value of the Revis Contract

[adsenseyu1]

The Darrelle Revis contract that contains no guaranteed money is one of the most surprising turn of events I can ever recall. I understand his desire to be the highest paid player on defense but to give up guaranteed salary is quite the surprise for a number of reasons and I wanted to address some of the topics I have been reading on Twitter.

First of all I don’t consider the fact that the no guarantees was simply a form of injury protection for the Buccaneers. You can guarantee contracts for skill and salary cap terminations which would still allow the Buccaneers to drop Revis if the injury he sustained is so severe that he can not play. You can also have the player sign an injury waiver where his money is protected unless an injury occurs to the same damaged area of his body, in this case his knee.

In my mind this was more of the ability of the Buccaneers to flex their muscle and get full protection in the event that Revis is no longer a top echelon player or the team is no good. They knew that nobody else in the NFL would have given Revis this type of salary and really there is no team in the NFL that has the cap structure and willingness to spend to absorb a player like Revis other than the Buccaneers. It was the only match.

If Revis really thought that he could get more money by proving he was the same player he would have simply turned down the offer. The Bucs can tell you that they explained the situation to he and his agents about how they cant give up two high picks and large guarantees, as reported by SI’s Peter King, but that doesn’t hold water. The Jets explained multiple times to Revis about how the rookie salary he earned was slotted far above his original draft position. Revis rightfully argued that didn’t matter. The Jets explained that the Nnamdi  Asomugha contract was an outlier, very publically on Hard Knocks in fact, and Revis argued it didn’t matter. Revis didn’t ask for a trade. The fact that the Bucs wanted him shouldn’t have mattered, but now we are supposed to believe that the player felt bad for the Buccaneers?  No chance.

Outside of the annual value tradeoff Revis really got nothing out of the contract. If we take this as a brand new contract, as all sides seem to be, the cash flows in the contract don’t compare to those of Mario Williams, the other $16 million dollar a year player. The reality is the first three years of cash flows are similar to those of star players like DeMarcus Ware who had deals that earned less than $13.5 million a season.

Revis

Williams

Ware

$16,000,000

$25,000,000

$32,800,000

$32,000,000

$40,000,000

$40,000,000

$48,000,000

$53,000,000

$45,000,000

$64,000,000

$66,600,000

$51,000,000

$80,000,000

$81,100,000

$63,750,000

$96,000,000

$96,000,000

$78,000,000

For Revis to really be considered a significantly more valued player than Ware (or even Clay Matthews or Terrell Suggs for that matter) he has to make it to the 4th year of his contract. It is at that point where he significantly jumps Ware and begins to close the gap on the Williams contract. That would be considered highly unlikely since Revis has no prorated protection in his contract. Ware was virtually guaranteed to earn $40 million as was Williams. Williams had a much better chance of earning the full $53 million due to dead money charges upwards of $17 million in his third contract season.

In terms of percentage of contract paid out in the first three years Revis hits at an even 50%, lowest among the core defensive players, which I think indicates that the Buccaneers probably put a real value on him closer to what you would pay a $13.8-14 million dollar a year player on the front end of the contract.

Player

% Contract Paid in 3 Years

Suggs

69.44%

Matthews

65.90%

Ware

57.70%

Williams

55.20%

Revis

50.00%

It is a very risky contract for Revis. I have seen people saying that he is functionally guaranteed at least $32 million, or the first two years salary of his contract. I disagree. NFL owners are not in the business of giving money away if it is not working. If they were they would not have squashed the union in their last set of negotiations. Revis isn’t just betting on himself being healthy but also on those around him being good.

The Buccaneers last season were 7-9, with a questionable QB and a porous secondary. The team spent a lot of money trying to fix that secondary signing Revis and S Dashon Goldson, but what happens if the team again finishes around that 0.500 mark?  The Buccaneers are built to win now and their contracts are structured in a way to simply move on if things go south.

Besides the QB being a free agent next season the Buccaneers can save themselves $38.4 million in cash salary obligations for only $7.96 million in dead money charges by releasing Revis, Donald Penn, Davin Joseph, and Vincent Jackson. It is a real question that could be faced by  the Buccaneers- retool for one last run via free agency or  rebuild?  The ages of the other three I mentioned during the 2014 season are all 31, not players kept in a rebuild.  Revis would be 29 and if you are going with a new QB and getting rid of some core players as you rebuild would one keep a $16 million dollar a year cornerback who will be 30 or 31 by the time the rebuild is effective?  It is the same dilemma that the Jets faced and the answer is likely not.

I doubt in the grand scheme of thing Revis’ contract means anything to future negotiations. No player in their right mind should trade cash now for potential cash 4 and 5 years down the line. Most of those players are out of the league by the time year 4 and 5 comes around. Some corners play effectively forever such as Champ Bailey, but  I just think it’s a risk that a player of Revis’ stature didn’t need to take.   Maybe in the new market the money simply wasn’t there unless this structure happened but I would take the $40 million guaranteed over two years rather than the hope of $64 million over 4 and shave a little off the total value of the deal. Time will tell if he made the right choice.

[adsenseyu2]

Thoughts on the Revis Contract with the Buccaneers

[adsenseyu1]

According to Jenna Laine (and multiple other outlets) Darrelle Revis’ new contract with the Buccaneers will average $16 million a season with no guaranteed money. The contract appears to be a straight $16 million a year in cash contract.

The APY of the deal will match that of DE Mario Williams but will fall short of the yearly cash flows of the first two years of Williams’ DeMarcus Ware, and Terrell Suggs if the reports of the cap structure are true. The contract signals a very different approach between the negotiations between Revis and the New York Jets in the past and the current deal with the Buccaneers.

In 2010 the Jets and Revis entered into a very bitter renegotiation  when Revis held out following a historic 2009 season that put the cornerback on the map as something more than just a good player, but in the discussion of being a Hall of Fame level talent. Revis had some major sticking points in that contract which included a desire to be the highest paid cornerback in the NFL and having firm guarantees in his contract. At the time he was looking to match the 3 year cash flows of Nnamdi Asomugha, then of the Raiders, who signed a contract that was completely out of the whack with the rest of the position and the league, and then translate that APY to a long term deal.

At one point during negotiations Revis’ business manager publically took to Twitter to mock a contract signed by D’Brickashaw Ferguson for containing injury only protection that would roll over to full guarantees if he made it to a certain date on the Jets roster. A comparison was deals signed by Master P, whose incentive laden deal for RB Ricky Williams was the subject of ridicule for many years by those inside the sport. The Jets were rumored to have offered Revis close to $100 million dollars over a very long period but Revis’ people fought back in the press on the basis that it contained no real guarantees to protect Revis.

Eventually the two sides settled on a contract in which Revis would match the 2 year payout the Raiders gave to Asomugha but not the three year total. The contract would be short term rather than long term but with 46% of the deal fully guaranteed and all but the $6 million payout in the fourth and final year of the deal “functionally guaranteed”.

Fast forward three years and Revis is agreeing to a contract with absolutely no guarantees in the contract, and seemingly not matching the cash flows of the biggest defensive players in the game during the meaningful years of the contract. It shows just how important that APY and distinction of being the highest paid defender was to him.

From the Buccaneers perspective this looks to be a very team friendly contract. They did not have to cave in on their standard no bonus structure and will take no dead money penalties if Revis is unhealthy and not worth the money. Compare that with the Jets who will now take a $12 million dollar dead money hit to watch Revis play as a Buccaneer. The high cash payments likely negate a Revis hold out, something he had done twice with the Jets and supposedly wanted to do last season as well, but was contractually blocked from doing so. At $16 million a year and with a stagnant salary cap and de-emphasizing of the position Revis likely has no avenue to ever make more money by holding out.

This will be the first defensive contract since the Asomugha contract to “break the system” in terms of positional valuation. At $16 million a year this represents a value that is around 64% higher than that of the 5th highest paid corner. It is unlikely that any player, especially one on defense, can have that kind of impact on a game to justify the high price tag. Of the other teams who “broke the system” and overslotted cap for specific players only the Vikings and Adrian Peterson made the playoffs last season. The other teams to overslot were the Cardinals (Larry Fitzgerald), Titans (Chris Johnson), and Lions (Calvin Johnson). So Revis will get an opportunity to prove a league wrong about the valuations placed on certain positions.

If he fails to do so the Buccaneers won’t hesitate to let him go and it will likely be another GM making the call. The Buccaneers have geared up via free agency and trades to compete now for the playoffs. They have many pieces in place and this will put tremendous pressure on QB Josh Freeman, in a contract year, to up his level of play to match that of some of the star players they have put on the team.  If they fail these are the type of moves that see a front office completely turn over.

[adsenseyu2]

Looking at a Potential Darrelle Revis Extension

[adsenseyu1]

I just wanted to post some opinions on what I think would be a contract that might make Darrelle Revis happy in terms of compensation. With the years of working on understanding the Jets salary cap Revis has been a hot topic of debate so he has been a player that I have really tried to get a better understanding of from a financial standpoint. Tampa has a very specific way of doing business so let’s see if we can get the two sides to meet.

Revis’ biggest desire in recent times has been to be the highest paid defensive player in the NFL. That distinction currently belongs to the Bills Mario Williams, who earns $16 million a year from the Buffalo Bills. Considering the market crash of 2013 and the fact that Revis is coming off an injury I think even he has come off that stance. I think at this point it will be acceptable to Revis to come in at a number that is going to be looked at as long term the highest in the game.

Clay Matthews recently signed an extension worth $13.2 million a season to top the OLB market and that becomes a number that Revis will need to top. The next highest paid defensive player is Julius Peppers of the Bears which averages $14 million a season.  That is probably the high end for Revis and a number he would love to top but might not be reasonable. Pepper and Williams could both be gone by 2014 and the reality is any number close to the $14 million is most likely not going to be surpassed barring a dramatic change in salary cap limits. The next “dominant” talents to have the chance would be JJ Watt of the Texans and potentially Jason Pierre Paul of the Giants if he put together two dominant years in 2013 and 2014.

So for the sake of argument I’d say $13.5 million gets the contract done, but we have to consider that  Revis has one year under contract left at $6 million dollars. Under a normal valuation the extension would kick in beginning in 2014 with $6 million of old money being built in, but I can’t see Revis buying that logic as it was an issue with his last Jets contract as well. In real terms that would make a deal $12.25 million for 6. He is going to want the full $13.5 for 6, making the extension years actually worth $15 million a season, for a total of $75 million. That number shatters the new money for Matthews and surpasses Peppers as well.

While Revis will compromise on the total value, if you can call it that, I do not think he will compromise as much on two other areas. The first is going to be the 2 year payout on his contract, which is typically where the guarantees of most contracts lie. Mario Williams takehome is $40 million over the first two years of his contract. That is the same number that DeMarcus Ware of the Cowboys and Terrell Suggs of the Ravens earned. I think that will be a deal breaker or close to it. Ware and Suggs will earn similar or less money annually than Revis and there were ways to have those high payouts early in the contract. To me he has to hit that number, unlike Matthews. The 3 year is important to him as well but I think more in terms of comparing to Ware than Williams. Williams’ takehome is $53 million while Ware is $45 million. Revis will want somewhere in between.  Again I cant imagine a compromise to fall under Ware.

The Buccaneers are a team that rarely does signing bonuses and I cant see them doing one here. They rarely do option bonuses either. For the most part they are a team that works on a cash to cap basis matching cash flow to cap hits other than for drafted rookies. To me that fits in fine with Revis. Revis wants to be the highest paid, in terms of cash, cornerback year after year. This was constantly a holdout argument from his side almost every year against the Jets who used option bonuses, void years, and salary advances in his prior two contracts to keep the cap hits reasonable. When you pay large sums of prorated money to a player it often inflates 1 year cash and deflates future cash flows. You would not hear a peep from Revis in a year designed to earn over $20 million, but the next year when his cash flow is around $7 million the rumblings of being underpaid occurred. You cant have it both ways and I think its important that a deal is structured in way that Revis is almost always guaranteed to be close to a double digit earner in cash flows.

To me that ties in fine with Tampa’s way of doing business. While they did prorate deals for Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks this past year in preparation for a Revis trade they were not part of their original contract structure and I don’t think they want to compromise the way they do business.  If they fully guarantee base salary with no offset provisions that will provide Revis with the same level of protection as the signing bonus, at least early in the contract. While the Bucs could hold options to convert guaranteed salary to a prorated bonus, that would be as far as I think they would take it.

One of things that I think both sides will look at is the structure of the Jake Long contract with the Rams and a few deals done by Tom Brady with the Patriots. These were contracts where guarantees kick in provided a milestone occurs. Brady’s contracts in the past have had potential to be fully 100% guaranteed provided he was on the roster the day after a Super Bowl or, towards the end of his contract, the last day of the regular season. Jake Long’s has some similar provisions to kick in smaller guarantees and they are based on IR status, which could be a consideration for Revis’ knee. The sides could look at the Peyton Manning deal where passing one physical unlocks 2 years of guarantees as well, but with Revis in his prime and perhaps no prorated bonuses I think they may opt to try to go for year after year guarantees if the Bucs don’t make a decision early about his status. The first two years will be fully guaranteed regardless.

The Buccaneers have over $30 million in cap room and less than $100 million committed to next season (though without a QB under contract) so they can certainly frontload a pure cash contract to Revis and not get into too much trouble. Per CBA rules you have to maintain at least 50% of the salary between year 1 and year 2, but that should not be a problem considering he needs to earn $40 million in that time. Keeping in mind the fact that he has the one year under contract they could do a deal like this:

Cap

Real Cash Total

New Cash Total

Year 0

$24,000,000

$24,000,000

$18,000,000

Year 1

$15,000,000

$39,000,000

$33,000,000

Year 2

$7,000,000

$46,000,000

$40,000,000

Year 3

$10,000,000

$56,000,000

$50,000,000

Year 4

$13,000,000

$69,000,000

$63,000,000

Year 5

$12,000,000

$81,000,000

$75,000,000

At these numbers (and you could easily split the cap numbers up to offseason roster bonuses for early payments without hurting the cap) Revis would hit pretty much all his desires. $13.5 million annually. $15 million in “new” money. Yearly cash flows that are almost always double digit millions. Over 50% of his contract coming in the form of guarantees and two year payouts. $40 million in new money over the first two years while having a cash takehome over the first two years of $39 million.  He ends up as the highest paid defensive player in the game for the foreseeable future and will have the opportunity to guarantee large amounts of his contract.

The only worry from  the Bucs point of view is that year 2 payout, but that early  in his contract and given his reputation I do not think Revis would threaten a holdout. I guess there are ways you can protect from that but it would be the only concern. It wont deter Tampa who dealt with a similar malcontent in Vincent Jackson, also repped by the same team that represents Revis, and had no issues finding a deal structure that they hope made him happy.If Revis proves to be unhealthy they would be able to move away by 2016 with no cap penalties. At worst It would cost them $46 million in cap space for a 3 year look at him, and they have alot of that money already earmarked for him to spend now. If you  think he is the guy that gets you over the top its a risk well worth taking. They just need to protect themselves from getting cap penalties beyond that year if they are going to pay him that kind of money.

[adsenseyu2]

Looking at Past NFL Player for Draft Pick Trades

[adsenseyu1]

With the Darrelle Revis trade about to go down I wanted to go back and look at some of the trades for players over the last 10 years or so as we begin to make early judgments on who got the better or worse value in the trade. Id say in general none of the trades have been franchise defining for the team giving away the first round pick. Based on the fact that Revis is looking for a new deal and is considered a top defensive talent I would look at the Jared Allen trade as a trade that might hold some weight in terms of compensation. Gut feeling is that some combination of a 1st, 3rd, and 4th/5th would be considered a pretty fair trade. Two first round picks would be an absolute steal for the Jets.

Here are the player for 1st round pick trades I could come up with since 2000, plus some brief comments on each. (Credit to Pro Sports Transactions for making it easy on me to look these up)

2000

Jets trade WR Keyshawn Johnson to the Buccaneers for the 13th and 27th pick. Johnson did win a Super Bowl in Tampa and have two productive seasons before being shut down by the head coach in 2003 and traded that offseason;

Seahawks trade WR Joey Galloway to Cowboys for a first rounder in 2000 and 2001. The picks are the 19th and 7th picks in the draft. Galloway was a total bust for the Cowboys

2001

Rams traded QB Trent Green to the Chiefs for the 12th and 150th pick in the draft.  Green was productive with the Chiefs even if the playoff results were not there

Rams traded DE Kevin Carter to the Titans for the 29th pick in the draft. Carter didn’t put up the sack numbers in Tennessee but was a solid starter on a good defense though only there for 4 seasons

2002

Saints traded RB Ricky Williams and a 4th round pick to the Dolphins for the 25th pick in the draft and a conditional 2003 first round pick that ended up being the 18th pick in the draft.  Williams’ first year in Miami was great, but within 2 years he retired from football. He returned in 2005 only to get suspended for drugs in 2006.

2003

Jets received the 13th pick in the draft as compensation from the Redskins for RFA WR Laveranues Coles. Coles made 1 Pro Bowl with the Redskins before being traded back to the Jets in 2005

Patriots traded QB Drew Bledsoe to the Bills for the 14th pick in the draft. Bledsoe lasted three years as a Bills starter producing 1 Pro Bowl and 0 playoff appearances.

2005

Vikings traded WR Randy Moss to the Raiders for the 7th and 219th picks. Moss was a complete bomb for Oakland, quitting on his team until a trade to New England saved his career.

Raiders traded TE Doug Jolley, the 47th pick, the 182nd and 185th pick to the Jets for the 26th pick and the 230th pick. This was harder to include since it did involve a 2nd rounder that was close to the 1st the Jets gave up, but Jolley was such an epic failure and this such a bad trade I wanted to include it.

2006

Jets trade DE John Abraham to the Falcons for the 29th pick in the draft. Abraham had a long and productive career in Atlanta that saw multiple playoff appearances and 4 double digit sack seasons

Patriots trade WR Deion Branch to the Seahawks for a 2007 1st round pick that proved to be the 24th pick in the draft. Branch was a bust for the Seahawks and sent back  to the Patriots after 4 unproductive seasons.

2008

Chiefs trade DE Jared Allen and the 187th pick to Vikings for the 17th, 73rd, 82nd, and 182nd pick. Allen has been one of the most dominant pressure generating ends in the league since being acquired by the Vikings

2009

Bills trade LT Jason Peters to Eagles for the 28th and 121st pick. Peters had 3 Pro Bowl seasons for the Eagles before being injured off the field this past season.

Broncos trade QB Jay Cutler and the 140th pick to the Bears for the 18th pick , 84th pick and Kyle Orton. The Broncos also received a 2010 first rounder that was the 11th pick in the draft. Cutler has twice led the Bears to the playoffs though he has not been considered a top tier QB.

2011

Raiders trade a 1st rounder in 2012 and 2nd rounder in 2013 to the Bengals for QB Carson Palmer. The picks end up being the 17th and 37th picks in the draft. Palmer was traded off the Raiders before they even accounted for the 2nd round pick involved in this trade

[adsenseyu2]