Buccaneers

The Risks and Real Value of the Revis Contract

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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The Darrelle Revis contract that contains no guaranteed money is one of the most surprising turn of events I can ever recall. I understand his desire to be the highest paid player on defense but to give up guaranteed salary is quite the surprise for a number of reasons and I wanted to address some of the topics I have been reading on Twitter.

First of all I don’t consider the fact that the no guarantees was simply a form of injury protection for the Buccaneers. You can guarantee contracts for skill and salary cap terminations which would still allow the Buccaneers to drop Revis if the injury he sustained is so severe that he can not play. You can also have the player sign an injury waiver where his money is protected unless an injury occurs to the same damaged area of his body, in this case his knee.

In my mind this was more of the ability of the Buccaneers to flex their muscle and get full protection in the event that Revis is no longer a top echelon player or the team is no good. They knew that nobody else in the NFL would have given Revis this type of salary and really there is no team in the NFL that has the cap structure and willingness to spend to absorb a player like Revis other than the Buccaneers. It was the only match.

If Revis really thought that he could get more money by proving he was the same player he would have simply turned down the offer. The Bucs can tell you that they explained the situation to he and his agents about how they cant give up two high picks and large guarantees, as reported by SI’s Peter King, but that doesn’t hold water. The Jets explained multiple times to Revis about how the rookie salary he earned was slotted far above his original draft position. Revis rightfully argued that didn’t matter. The Jets explained that the Nnamdi  Asomugha contract was an outlier, very publically on Hard Knocks in fact, and Revis argued it didn’t matter. Revis didn’t ask for a trade. The fact that the Bucs wanted him shouldn’t have mattered, but now we are supposed to believe that the player felt bad for the Buccaneers?  No chance.

Outside of the annual value tradeoff Revis really got nothing out of the contract. If we take this as a brand new contract, as all sides seem to be, the cash flows in the contract don’t compare to those of Mario Williams, the other $16 million dollar a year player. The reality is the first three years of cash flows are similar to those of star players like DeMarcus Ware who had deals that earned less than $13.5 million a season.

Revis

Williams

Ware

$16,000,000

$25,000,000

$32,800,000

$32,000,000

$40,000,000

$40,000,000

$48,000,000

$53,000,000

$45,000,000

$64,000,000

$66,600,000

$51,000,000

$80,000,000

$81,100,000

$63,750,000

$96,000,000

$96,000,000

$78,000,000

For Revis to really be considered a significantly more valued player than Ware (or even Clay Matthews or Terrell Suggs for that matter) he has to make it to the 4th year of his contract. It is at that point where he significantly jumps Ware and begins to close the gap on the Williams contract. That would be considered highly unlikely since Revis has no prorated protection in his contract. Ware was virtually guaranteed to earn $40 million as was Williams. Williams had a much better chance of earning the full $53 million due to dead money charges upwards of $17 million in his third contract season.

In terms of percentage of contract paid out in the first three years Revis hits at an even 50%, lowest among the core defensive players, which I think indicates that the Buccaneers probably put a real value on him closer to what you would pay a $13.8-14 million dollar a year player on the front end of the contract.

Player

% Contract Paid in 3 Years

Suggs

69.44%

Matthews

65.90%

Ware

57.70%

Williams

55.20%

Revis

50.00%

It is a very risky contract for Revis. I have seen people saying that he is functionally guaranteed at least $32 million, or the first two years salary of his contract. I disagree. NFL owners are not in the business of giving money away if it is not working. If they were they would not have squashed the union in their last set of negotiations. Revis isn’t just betting on himself being healthy but also on those around him being good.

The Buccaneers last season were 7-9, with a questionable QB and a porous secondary. The team spent a lot of money trying to fix that secondary signing Revis and S Dashon Goldson, but what happens if the team again finishes around that 0.500 mark?  The Buccaneers are built to win now and their contracts are structured in a way to simply move on if things go south.

Besides the QB being a free agent next season the Buccaneers can save themselves $38.4 million in cash salary obligations for only $7.96 million in dead money charges by releasing Revis, Donald Penn, Davin Joseph, and Vincent Jackson. It is a real question that could be faced by  the Buccaneers- retool for one last run via free agency or  rebuild?  The ages of the other three I mentioned during the 2014 season are all 31, not players kept in a rebuild.  Revis would be 29 and if you are going with a new QB and getting rid of some core players as you rebuild would one keep a $16 million dollar a year cornerback who will be 30 or 31 by the time the rebuild is effective?  It is the same dilemma that the Jets faced and the answer is likely not.

I doubt in the grand scheme of thing Revis’ contract means anything to future negotiations. No player in their right mind should trade cash now for potential cash 4 and 5 years down the line. Most of those players are out of the league by the time year 4 and 5 comes around. Some corners play effectively forever such as Champ Bailey, but  I just think it’s a risk that a player of Revis’ stature didn’t need to take.   Maybe in the new market the money simply wasn’t there unless this structure happened but I would take the $40 million guaranteed over two years rather than the hope of $64 million over 4 and shave a little off the total value of the deal. Time will tell if he made the right choice.

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The Dismantling and Rebuilding of a Team

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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While the trade of Darrelle Revis seemed inevitable I think there was still a sense of shock when it finally went down and he became a Buccaneer. The situation illustrates one of the most difficult parts of building and, more importantly, maintaining a high quality team in a salary cap sport. This was clearly the issue at large between the Jets and Revis. I don’t think that there was anyone in Florham Park that disagreed with the fact that Revis was the best cornerback in the NFL. Im not even sure anyone disagreed that he was the best defensive player in the NFL. But this isn’t baseball and there was clear disagreement between what the value of the best defensive player in the NFL should be worth.

There will be many who state that the Jets poor decision to extend Mark Sanchez created a salary cap nightmare that forced them to deal Revis due to cap problems. Others might point the finger at David Harris or Santonio Holmes. None are really true. All will likely be gone in 2014 with minimal cap penalties. Sanchez this year counts for $12.853 million nowhere near the top of the NFL. The Jets could have fit Revis without issue. The question becomes at $16 million a season is it worth doing?

Assuming the salary cap grows at about 2% a year, Revis will occupy an average of 12.6% of the Buccaneers cap over the next 4 seasons.  Everyone agrees that this is a QB driven league and, unless you plan to just use draft picks on your QBs, they are paid highly. Joe Flacco, who has never thrown for 4,000 yards in a season just received over $20 million a year based on a playoff run. Matt Schaub who has won nothing got over $15 million. For the Revis move to work the Buccaneers are expecting Josh Freeman to take that next step. You are not spending that high on your secondary to bring in a rookie to take over. So lets be conservative and say he barely passes Schaub and earns $16 million. Receivers still make a good chunk of change and they have a Grade A player in Vincent Jackson. Jackson earns $11.1 million a year. So essentially you have now made the choice to invest around 34% of your allocations in 3 players. If you had one of the next best corners making just under $10 million the number changes to 29%. That’s a major difference.

Due to salary cap constraints you can not build a team by purchasing high priced free agents and hoping to fill in the holes around them with low cost rookies and low cost players near the end of their careers. It simply doesn’t work. By the time the low priced rookies are really able to contribute the high priced veterans make that turn past 30 and the play typically begins to decline. Cap penalties for release ensue and the team spends a lot of money to never accomplish anything. In some ways that is what happened with the Jets as their drafts from 2008 thru 2010 all more or less busted making it impossible to maintain the success of 2009 and 2010 with the aging roster.

You have to work the other way around in the NFL. First get the building blocks in place on low cost rookie deals and then augment those players with veterans. The Jets were successful with that formula when they drafted their core and depth players in 2006 and 2007 and then paid high prices for players like Bart Scott, Alan Faneca, Calvin Pace, Damien Woody, and Kris Jenkins. It culminated in two back to back championship games. Tampa Bay has many of those young players from recent drafts making a move for Revis a reasonable risk, but the Jets are not in the same place.

The Jets have officially waved the white flag on the past and begun the complete tearing down of their team. This is what happens in the salary cap league. There is no real middle ground anymore when it comes to team building. Either you have the youth in place and spend  or you don’t. When you don’t you have to do everything in your power to rebuild your team as fast as possible from the ground up. You can’t overspend at that point at any position until you get the team ready to make that next leap.

While none of this means miracles cant happen as it pertains to the Jets season, the planning has been clear. The Jets have signed no long term contracts this season. No attempts were made to extend players like Antonio Cromartie beyond 2014 even though it would have yielded significant cap relief. The team did not rework  the contract of C Nick Mangold which would have made cutting or trading him more difficult in the future. With the way the market has turned the Cromartie and Mangold deals represent positional overspending, specifically Mangold. You have to protect your teams flexibility when that occurs.

With the trade of Revis official the Jets will have replaced 12 starters from their 2012 season. Some such as Scott were no brainers. Others indicate an age issue. Shonn Greene will be 28. LaRon Landry will be 29. Mike DeVito will be 29. Dustin Keller will be 29. You don’t want to get in deep and long term on players who will be over 30 by the time you think you are going to fix the ship.  You can find lower cost older players or more upside younger players to fill those voids.

By the time 2014 rolls around the Jets will potentially replace 17 of the 22 starters from the 2012 season. That is a dismantling of a team. If they jettison Sanchez, Holmes, and Cromartie their team salary, including this years draft, will only be $61 million for 40 players under contract. At a $124 million dollar cap that is nearly $51 million in cap space.  From a long term planning perspective you hope to have your young building blocks in Muhammad Wilkerson, Quinton Coples, and both of this years two number 1 draft picks in place. Maybe you get something out of Jeremy Kerley, Kenrick Ellis, Demario Davis, or Stephen Hill. At that stage you can begin to augment your team with veterans who will be 28 years or so of age in 2014 and meet the needs of the team based on your own personnel, coaching staff, and leaguewide trends not past preferences.

The NFL is very impatient and in order for GM’s and coaches to keep their jobs the long rebuild is not something that will be tolerated in most cities. What is good though is that most teams will give a new GM an opportunity to break things apart. The Jets did this in 2006 when they gave new GM Mike Tannenbaum permission  to trade the teams best player and cut Pro Bowlers like Kevin Mawae for the long term healthy of the club. John Idzik is getting that same opportunity and like Tannenbaum before him he is looking to do it quickly because he knows he will be out the door if he doesn’t get the job done.

You never say never in this league and maybe 2013 will see the Jets shock the world, but there is a clear path here to getting something in place in 2014 just 2 years into Idzik’s stint as GM. By 2015 they would definitely be in a place to make some noise with major cap room if they don’t use it in 2014. But it all relies on the draft. If Idzik misses on those two draft picks this year the Jets have a chance to fall back into pre-1998 obscurity by clearing a bunch of cap space for a team with no building blocks in place to drive the success of the team. If that happens the team could be faced with the same tough choice they just had with Revis as Wilkerson and Coples could seem to be too high of a cost on yet another rebuilding team.  That’s the vicious cycle of salary cap football.

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Thoughts on the Revis Contract with the Buccaneers

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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According to Jenna Laine (and multiple other outlets) Darrelle Revis’ new contract with the Buccaneers will average $16 million a season with no guaranteed money. The contract appears to be a straight $16 million a year in cash contract.

The APY of the deal will match that of DE Mario Williams but will fall short of the yearly cash flows of the first two years of Williams’ DeMarcus Ware, and Terrell Suggs if the reports of the cap structure are true. The contract signals a very different approach between the negotiations between Revis and the New York Jets in the past and the current deal with the Buccaneers.

In 2010 the Jets and Revis entered into a very bitter renegotiation  when Revis held out following a historic 2009 season that put the cornerback on the map as something more than just a good player, but in the discussion of being a Hall of Fame level talent. Revis had some major sticking points in that contract which included a desire to be the highest paid cornerback in the NFL and having firm guarantees in his contract. At the time he was looking to match the 3 year cash flows of Nnamdi Asomugha, then of the Raiders, who signed a contract that was completely out of the whack with the rest of the position and the league, and then translate that APY to a long term deal.

At one point during negotiations Revis’ business manager publically took to Twitter to mock a contract signed by D’Brickashaw Ferguson for containing injury only protection that would roll over to full guarantees if he made it to a certain date on the Jets roster. A comparison was deals signed by Master P, whose incentive laden deal for RB Ricky Williams was the subject of ridicule for many years by those inside the sport. The Jets were rumored to have offered Revis close to $100 million dollars over a very long period but Revis’ people fought back in the press on the basis that it contained no real guarantees to protect Revis.

Eventually the two sides settled on a contract in which Revis would match the 2 year payout the Raiders gave to Asomugha but not the three year total. The contract would be short term rather than long term but with 46% of the deal fully guaranteed and all but the $6 million payout in the fourth and final year of the deal “functionally guaranteed”.

Fast forward three years and Revis is agreeing to a contract with absolutely no guarantees in the contract, and seemingly not matching the cash flows of the biggest defensive players in the game during the meaningful years of the contract. It shows just how important that APY and distinction of being the highest paid defender was to him.

From the Buccaneers perspective this looks to be a very team friendly contract. They did not have to cave in on their standard no bonus structure and will take no dead money penalties if Revis is unhealthy and not worth the money. Compare that with the Jets who will now take a $12 million dollar dead money hit to watch Revis play as a Buccaneer. The high cash payments likely negate a Revis hold out, something he had done twice with the Jets and supposedly wanted to do last season as well, but was contractually blocked from doing so. At $16 million a year and with a stagnant salary cap and de-emphasizing of the position Revis likely has no avenue to ever make more money by holding out.

This will be the first defensive contract since the Asomugha contract to “break the system” in terms of positional valuation. At $16 million a year this represents a value that is around 64% higher than that of the 5th highest paid corner. It is unlikely that any player, especially one on defense, can have that kind of impact on a game to justify the high price tag. Of the other teams who “broke the system” and overslotted cap for specific players only the Vikings and Adrian Peterson made the playoffs last season. The other teams to overslot were the Cardinals (Larry Fitzgerald), Titans (Chris Johnson), and Lions (Calvin Johnson). So Revis will get an opportunity to prove a league wrong about the valuations placed on certain positions.

If he fails to do so the Buccaneers won’t hesitate to let him go and it will likely be another GM making the call. The Buccaneers have geared up via free agency and trades to compete now for the playoffs. They have many pieces in place and this will put tremendous pressure on QB Josh Freeman, in a contract year, to up his level of play to match that of some of the star players they have put on the team.  If they fail these are the type of moves that see a front office completely turn over.

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Looking at a Potential Darrelle Revis Extension

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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I just wanted to post some opinions on what I think would be a contract that might make Darrelle Revis happy in terms of compensation. With the years of working on understanding the Jets salary cap Revis has been a hot topic of debate so he has been a player that I have really tried to get a better understanding of from a financial standpoint. Tampa has a very specific way of doing business so let’s see if we can get the two sides to meet.

Revis’ biggest desire in recent times has been to be the highest paid defensive player in the NFL. That distinction currently belongs to the Bills Mario Williams, who earns $16 million a year from the Buffalo Bills. Considering the market crash of 2013 and the fact that Revis is coming off an injury I think even he has come off that stance. I think at this point it will be acceptable to Revis to come in at a number that is going to be looked at as long term the highest in the game.

Clay Matthews recently signed an extension worth $13.2 million a season to top the OLB market and that becomes a number that Revis will need to top. The next highest paid defensive player is Julius Peppers of the Bears which averages $14 million a season.  That is probably the high end for Revis and a number he would love to top but might not be reasonable. Pepper and Williams could both be gone by 2014 and the reality is any number close to the $14 million is most likely not going to be surpassed barring a dramatic change in salary cap limits. The next “dominant” talents to have the chance would be JJ Watt of the Texans and potentially Jason Pierre Paul of the Giants if he put together two dominant years in 2013 and 2014.

So for the sake of argument I’d say $13.5 million gets the contract done, but we have to consider that  Revis has one year under contract left at $6 million dollars. Under a normal valuation the extension would kick in beginning in 2014 with $6 million of old money being built in, but I can’t see Revis buying that logic as it was an issue with his last Jets contract as well. In real terms that would make a deal $12.25 million for 6. He is going to want the full $13.5 for 6, making the extension years actually worth $15 million a season, for a total of $75 million. That number shatters the new money for Matthews and surpasses Peppers as well.

While Revis will compromise on the total value, if you can call it that, I do not think he will compromise as much on two other areas. The first is going to be the 2 year payout on his contract, which is typically where the guarantees of most contracts lie. Mario Williams takehome is $40 million over the first two years of his contract. That is the same number that DeMarcus Ware of the Cowboys and Terrell Suggs of the Ravens earned. I think that will be a deal breaker or close to it. Ware and Suggs will earn similar or less money annually than Revis and there were ways to have those high payouts early in the contract. To me he has to hit that number, unlike Matthews. The 3 year is important to him as well but I think more in terms of comparing to Ware than Williams. Williams’ takehome is $53 million while Ware is $45 million. Revis will want somewhere in between.  Again I cant imagine a compromise to fall under Ware.

The Buccaneers are a team that rarely does signing bonuses and I cant see them doing one here. They rarely do option bonuses either. For the most part they are a team that works on a cash to cap basis matching cash flow to cap hits other than for drafted rookies. To me that fits in fine with Revis. Revis wants to be the highest paid, in terms of cash, cornerback year after year. This was constantly a holdout argument from his side almost every year against the Jets who used option bonuses, void years, and salary advances in his prior two contracts to keep the cap hits reasonable. When you pay large sums of prorated money to a player it often inflates 1 year cash and deflates future cash flows. You would not hear a peep from Revis in a year designed to earn over $20 million, but the next year when his cash flow is around $7 million the rumblings of being underpaid occurred. You cant have it both ways and I think its important that a deal is structured in way that Revis is almost always guaranteed to be close to a double digit earner in cash flows.

To me that ties in fine with Tampa’s way of doing business. While they did prorate deals for Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks this past year in preparation for a Revis trade they were not part of their original contract structure and I don’t think they want to compromise the way they do business.  If they fully guarantee base salary with no offset provisions that will provide Revis with the same level of protection as the signing bonus, at least early in the contract. While the Bucs could hold options to convert guaranteed salary to a prorated bonus, that would be as far as I think they would take it.

One of things that I think both sides will look at is the structure of the Jake Long contract with the Rams and a few deals done by Tom Brady with the Patriots. These were contracts where guarantees kick in provided a milestone occurs. Brady’s contracts in the past have had potential to be fully 100% guaranteed provided he was on the roster the day after a Super Bowl or, towards the end of his contract, the last day of the regular season. Jake Long’s has some similar provisions to kick in smaller guarantees and they are based on IR status, which could be a consideration for Revis’ knee. The sides could look at the Peyton Manning deal where passing one physical unlocks 2 years of guarantees as well, but with Revis in his prime and perhaps no prorated bonuses I think they may opt to try to go for year after year guarantees if the Bucs don’t make a decision early about his status. The first two years will be fully guaranteed regardless.

The Buccaneers have over $30 million in cap room and less than $100 million committed to next season (though without a QB under contract) so they can certainly frontload a pure cash contract to Revis and not get into too much trouble. Per CBA rules you have to maintain at least 50% of the salary between year 1 and year 2, but that should not be a problem considering he needs to earn $40 million in that time. Keeping in mind the fact that he has the one year under contract they could do a deal like this:

Cap

Real Cash Total

New Cash Total

Year 0

$24,000,000

$24,000,000

$18,000,000

Year 1

$15,000,000

$39,000,000

$33,000,000

Year 2

$7,000,000

$46,000,000

$40,000,000

Year 3

$10,000,000

$56,000,000

$50,000,000

Year 4

$13,000,000

$69,000,000

$63,000,000

Year 5

$12,000,000

$81,000,000

$75,000,000

At these numbers (and you could easily split the cap numbers up to offseason roster bonuses for early payments without hurting the cap) Revis would hit pretty much all his desires. $13.5 million annually. $15 million in “new” money. Yearly cash flows that are almost always double digit millions. Over 50% of his contract coming in the form of guarantees and two year payouts. $40 million in new money over the first two years while having a cash takehome over the first two years of $39 million.  He ends up as the highest paid defensive player in the game for the foreseeable future and will have the opportunity to guarantee large amounts of his contract.

The only worry from  the Bucs point of view is that year 2 payout, but that early  in his contract and given his reputation I do not think Revis would threaten a holdout. I guess there are ways you can protect from that but it would be the only concern. It wont deter Tampa who dealt with a similar malcontent in Vincent Jackson, also repped by the same team that represents Revis, and had no issues finding a deal structure that they hope made him happy.If Revis proves to be unhealthy they would be able to move away by 2016 with no cap penalties. At worst It would cost them $46 million in cap space for a 3 year look at him, and they have alot of that money already earmarked for him to spend now. If you  think he is the guy that gets you over the top its a risk well worth taking. They just need to protect themselves from getting cap penalties beyond that year if they are going to pay him that kind of money.

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The Buccaneers, Eric Wright, Darrelle Revis, and the Jets

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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Per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have renegotiated the contract of CB Eric Wright reducing his base salary from $7.75 million to $1.5 million, a $6.25 million dollar paycut. While Wright can earn up to another $1.5 million in unknown incentives it is likely that these incentives will not count towards the salary cap in the 2013 season. This move leaves the Buccaneers with about $33 million in cap space which opens up a number of questions about what they plan on doing with the cap room.

First I just wanted to discuss the situation with Wright. Everyone is well aware that Wright signed a lucrative contract last year, but voided his guarantees when he was suspended in 2012. This left Wright in a bad position when it came to roster security. The Buccaneers are one of the few NFL teams that employ almost a pure cash to cap philosophy. Outside of rookies very few players on the roster have any cap protection that comes from the potential of dead money acceleration. Tampa Bay simply guarantees P5 salary, typically for two years, and once the guarantees vanish so can the player without penalty. Wright’s roster spot was clearly in jeopardy.

The decision to keep Wright benefits both sides. From Tampa’s perspective you have to consider where would they get another cornerback with the same upside at this stage of free agency?  The answer is they couldn’t. $1.5 million is a bargain even in this market, The NFC South is a pass happy division in a much stronger conference making cornerbacks a premium position within the division. You need two of them in the division more than any other division in the NFL. From Wright’s point of view the cornerback market grew incredibly soft and he is coming off a very low point in his career. Free agency is basically at an end and the teams with the most cap room such as the Browns, Jaguars, Eagles and Bengals would likely not be looking for a player like Wright. Other teams might show interest but they may not even match the $3 million potential Wright gets in Tampa Bay. In return for accepting a low salary the remainder of his contract, per reports, will void, giving him a shot at free agency next season when, in theory, the market might be better.  The other added benefit for Wright deals with the potential trade with the Jets for CB Darrelle Revis. If Wright plays alongside Revis he could benefit greatly from the situation.

The added cap space for the Buccaneers is only going to add fuel to the fire on the Revis speculation and I am going to feed into that here as well. The logical reason that the Buccaneers are interested in creating more cap room would be to frontload a contract for the injured Revis and protect their salary cap in the event Revis is not the same player post surgery. Remember how I said that the Buccaneers like to guarantee 2 years of a contract, well when you are looking to sign a deal with a Revis that is going to be a large amount of money. With $33 million in cap space and likely no first round draft pick to sign the Buccaneers could give Revis as much as $26 million in 2013 in both cap and cash considerations.

Per the rules of the CBA Revis would need to earn at least $13 million in 2014 to avoid the difference being treated as a signing bonus. Per my estimates the Buccaneers have around $98.25 in cap commitments in 2014 for 43 players, making a $13 million dollar hit very reasonable for the team. While they do need to either re-sign Josh Freeman or find a new QB, both moves are doable within the Bucanners cap especially considering that they could be parting with two number 1 draft picks in a trade with the Jets. Structuring a deal this way gets $39 million out of the way in two years, a number almost equal to the $40 million two year payout received by the Bills Mario Williams, who Revis is looking at as a guide for his contract. By using conditional guarantees in the third year of the contract the Buccaneers could likely structure a deal where Revis could be cut in 2015 with no or limited penalty if unhealthy.

The other more “out of the box” possibility is that the Buccaneers are creating cap space to essentially take on a salary dump from the Jets. In other sports we see trades for cash, something that can’t be done in the NFL. But if a team has the cap space to absorb a bad contract with guaranteed salary they can sweeten a trade offer by essentially taking a majority of the cash and cap obligation away from the trading team.

The Jets have three bad contracts on their team that contain minimal prorated money but guaranteed base salaries. These guaranteed salaries essentially prevent the Jets from cutting the player but by no means prevent the trade of a player. The two big ones on the books are LB David Harris and WR Santonio Holmes. Harris has $9.5 million in fully guaranteed salary in 2013 and a $13 million dollar cap hit. If traded Harris’ dead money would only be $4 million freeing up $9 million in cap for the Jets. Holmes carries a $9 million dollar cap hit, $7.5 million of which comes from a fully guaranteed base salary. Trading Holmes frees up $5.25 million in cap space for the Jets. The other name is QB Tim Tebow, who only carries a $2.586 million dollar cap charge, of which $1.531 million is owed to  the Denver Broncos. None of these 3 players, to the best of my knowledge, carry any guaranteed salary in 2014 pretty much making them a 1 year rental for Tampa with no damage done to their future salary cap.

Of these names the two that make the most sense would be Holmes and Tebow. Holmes, if healthy, could be a good complement to WR’s Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams giving Freeman another weapon in the passing game. Holmes could be convinced to play the slot in Tampa. The money he would free in cap space would balance out the $3 million loss of cap from Revis and the $1.83 million cap charge the 13th pick in the draft should carry making the trade much more acceptable to the Jets. If Tampa has to part with a 1st round pick in 2013 plus a 2nd or another 1st in 2014 the addition of a second contributing player in the trade will make the price more acceptable to the Buccaneers. Tebow does not benefit in the same way, but gives the Jets the chance to save face and money from the ill advised trade with the Broncos. The low cap charge for Tebow would not impact the Bucs ability to frontload a deal with Revis the way Holmes’ would.

While nothing more than wild speculation on my part I do think that it can provide a pretty interesting way to manipulate the salary cap that has not really been used at all in the past. As more teams move towards the cash to cap philosophy it could open the door for more teams to consider trades as a normal business operation to fix a teams salary cap.

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