Looking at Odell Beckham’s Contract Situation with the New York Daily News

Wanted to share an article written by Pat Leonard that appeared in last week’s New York Daily News where we go over how the Giants could feasibly sign Odell Beckham to an extension before the 2018 season.

You can click here to go to the article on their website or check out the article below.

Zack Moore is a writer for OverTheCap.com and author of the recently released book titled, “Caponomics: Building Super Bowl Champions,” which is now available on Amazon. You can follow him on Twitter @ZackMooreNFL. 

Jets to Release Brandon Marshall

According to Kimberly Martin the Jets will be releasing wide receiver Brandon Marshall in the coming days.

Continue reading Jets to Release Brandon Marshall »

Best and Worst NFL Contracts 2016: New York Jets

We wrap up the AFC East with a look at the New York Jets. We’ll be moving to the AFC North next week…

Best: Brandon Marshall, 3 years, $26 million, $9M guaranteed

I had a hard time selecting a best on the Jets as very little really stands out on the team as a great team friendly contract. By the same token they don’t have a bunch of bad ones either. Most are just your average middle of the road contract. I think Marshall’s contract fits in that same category but there were a few things that I thought helped it stand out as a bit better than expected. Continue reading Best and Worst NFL Contracts 2016: New York Jets »

2015 NFL Stock Up Week 2

Every week during the season I’ll take a look back at the games and select three players who are entering important stages of their contract that may have helped their stock in upcoming negotiations with their play on gameday. In addition we will also look at one player signed in the offseason to a new contract that exceeded all expectations and provided exceptional value to his team. So let’s see who made the cut in week 2…

Stock Up

Michael Crabtree– Crabtree took a risky one year contract with the Raiders and it paid off this week. Crabtree put up 111 yards and a touchdown, which are the kind of numbers that can get him back on track to earning that number 1 receiver type of contract he desperately wants. Continue reading 2015 NFL Stock Up Week 2 »

Jets to Trade for Brandon Marshall

According to a number of different reporters the Jets will be trading a mid round draft pick to acquire Brandon Marshall from the Chicago Bears. My assumption is that the pick will be a 5th rounder since the Jets 4th and 6th round picks will technically be tied up in the Percy Harvin trade from last season through the NFL draft.

Marshall is a very accomplished receiver that had posted seven 1,000 yard seasons in a row before falling to just 721 last season as he struggled with injuries and an ineffective offense. Marshall is 31 years old and should be able to produce for at least two more years at the 1,000 yard level, provided he stays healthy. The Jets will take on $7.7 million in salary for Marshall this year. His 2016 and 2017 salaries of $8.1 and $8.5 million are non-guaranteed, meaning that if the 700 yard season was a sign of things to come he can be released without future salary cap implications. Neither side should push to rework the contract given that Marshall was just signed in 2014.

The Bears had signed Marshall to a contract extension last year that paid him a $7.5 million signing bonus and $7.5 million salary. The team ended up getting just one year for $15 million, essentially as if he was a franchise player, so from that perspective the extension was a disaster for the Bears. The Bears will now carry $5.625 million in dead money for Marshall this season, but that will allow them to create another $3.95 million in cap room. For Chicago this is probably a sign of the lack of faith that the new regime has in the roster that was constructed by former GM Phil Emery and they will be looking to turn over as many veteran pieces as possible.

This move should signal the end of Harvin’s brief tenure with the Jets last season. Harvin was acquired in the middle of the season when then GM John Idzik was getting hammered in the press for not being proactive in his approach to help the team. Harvin was highly overpaid by the Seahawks and had been overvalued for some time around NFL circles. With the Jets already having Eric Decker, Jeremy Kerley and Jace Amaro under contract, Harvin should be the odd man out.

Harvin was set to earn $10.5 million this season and he would need to bring that number down if he wanted to stay. Reports were that he balked at such a move and this trade would seem to indicate that the Jets realized it was time to move on. Marshall is not only more productive but also cheaper. Last season Harvin did not reach 500 receiving yards. He will likely struggle to earn $6 million a year if he is released.

The trade can not be official until March 10, which likely means the Jets would not make a move with  Harvin until that date. We will not update any of the cap charts to reflect the trade until it is actually official with the NFL.

Stock Up: Week 12

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Every Monday during the season we will take a look back at three players who are entering important stages of their contract that may have helped their stock in upcoming negotiations with their play on Sunday. In addition we will also look at one player signed in the offseason to a new contract that exceeded all expectations and provided exceptional value to his team.

Stock Up

Knowshon Moreno– Moreno ate up the Patriots last night rushing for 224 yards. He has been a beast all season, resembling nothing of the frustrating player that has suited up for Denver since 2009. Moreno gained more yards on the ground than Peyton Manning threw for in the air and he is averaging over 74 yards a game. He’s also added almost 350 yards receiving as well. Moreno’s contract will void this offseason making him an unrestricted free agent so his rebirth is coming at the perfect moment. He apparently was injured in the overtime and hopefully it is nothing serious but he has more than earned a new contract with his play in 2013.

Karlos Dansby– I have to imagine Dolphins fans are wondering where this player was in Miami because he has been a very good player and excellent fit inside the Cardinals defense. Dansby was signed to a low cost one year contract in Arizona this offseason and has far exceeded the contract this year with his play. On Sunday Dansby was credited with five solo tackles and had an interception that he returned for a touchdown. The touchdown broke the game wide open giving the Cardinals an insurmountable 21 point lead. He leads all linebackers this year in both unassisted tackled and passes broken up. Dansby isn’t a young man anymore but he has probably earned himself a two or three year contract based on his play with the Cardinals.

Brandon Marshall– On a day where little went right for Chicago, Marshall continued his dominant season with 10 catches for 117 yards, his 3rd 100 yard game in the last 4 games. Marshall has one year remaining on his contract after this season and with the Bears in a state of flux it is very likely that Marshall could see himself with a new contract either with Chicago or another team if he is traded in the offseason. Marshall has been a model citizen since leaving Miami and ranks second in the NFL in receptions and 9th in yards. His production is consistent year after year and shows no signs of going down. Most important he is one of the rare players in the NFL that seems QB proof in that the production remains constant regardless of who he plays with.

 

New Contract Player Of The Week

Ryan Fitzpatrick– I’ve always given Fitzpatrick a lot of grief for somehow tricking the Buffalo Bills into paying him as a true starting Quarterback off a few game hot streak despite years of being relegated  to backup status. On Sunday, however, there was no doubt that Fitzpatrick played to the level of that contract, even if that contract does not exist anymore. Signed in the offseason as insurance for injury prone Jake Locker Fitzpatrick revived the Titans playoff chances with a 320 yard, two touchdown game that his team won in the final seconds on the road against the Raiders. You can not ask for more than that out of anyone.

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Is the Wide Receiver Market the Next to Fall?

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The other night during the Dolphins loss once again the thought of Mike Wallace being underutilized/overhyped was afloat on Twitter. I was not a fan of the contract the Dolphins gave Wallace, but the repeated comments made me to consider if the wide receiver market as a whole is going to decline this season much in the way the cornerback and defensive end market did in 2013.

Since 2011 there have been a number of big contracts signed at the wide receiver position and this year in particular featured a number of free agents including Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Victor Cruz, and Greg Jennings.  Here is a look at who we have estimated to be the 15 highest paid players at the position and what their projected production is this season:

Name

Annual ValueProj RecProj Yards

Calvin Johnson

$16,207,143

99.4

1695.0

Larry Fitzgerald

$16,142,857

69.3

876.4

Percy Harvin

$12,849,000

0.0

0.0

Mike Wallace

$12,000,000

71.1

880.0

Dwayne Bowe

$11,200,000

58.7

656.0

Brandon Marshall

$11,194,750

106.7

1397.3

Vincent Jackson

$11,111,111

81.8

1176.9

DeSean Jackson

$9,700,000

86.4

1444.8

Andre Johnson

$9,685,714

110.2

1511.1

Miles Austin

$9,016,667

33.0

275.0

Greg Jennings

$9,000,000

60.4

728.9

Victor Cruz

$8,600,000

88.9

1269.3

Roddy White

$8,544,000

32.5

322.8

Pierre Garcon

$8,500,000

108.4

1427.6

Santonio Holmes

$8,416,667

27.5

668.3

The average production for the group is 69 receptions for 955 yards. Now that number could rise if Percy Harvin comes back strong from injury in the last 7 games, but for the most part 4 of the top 7 salaried players are financial busts at the position. Those seven players represent the top tier of the market. Johnson is justifying the cost while Brandon Marshall is always consistent every year as is Vincent Jackson. The bottom 8 has 4 busts though Roddy White has more than justified his contract over the last three or four years.

Essentially we are looking at paying over $10 million a year for a 50/50 shot at having a player that justifies the big investment. That sounds a lot like the NFL draft except with a far more money being spent. That makes me think that downgrading the entire position is a reality next season.

In terms of per game yardage this season the top 15 includes eight players on rookie contracts (Julio Jones, Justin Blackmon. AJ Green, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, Torrey Smith, Alshon Jeffery and Eric Decker),  one player on a low cost deal (Jordy Nelson), and four lower upper salaries (Andre Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Antonio Brown, and Pierre Garcon). That leaves just two elite salaried players (Marshall and C. Johnson) to make the list. If we remove those  who played 5 or less we add one lower upper salary (Cruz) and one rookie (Randall Cobb) to replace two rookie contracts.

This season is not really an aberration. Here are the top 15 players in yards per game sorted by contract. Elite would be a player earning over $10 million a year, high end over $8 million, low is all other veterans while rookies are those on rookie deals.

Year

Elite

High End

Low

Rookie

2011

4

2

3

6

2012

3

4

2

6

2013

2

4

1

8

I tend to think that the performance this season of the big money signings might be a tipping point in the way some teams approach free agents. With a few notable free agents and a handful of players in potential extension scenarios in 2014 I guess we’ll see if teams continue to spend high or bring the top end of the market back down into the $9 million per year or less range.

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