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Stock Down: Week 12

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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Every Monday during the season we will take a look back at three players who are entering important stages of their contract that may have hurt their stock in upcoming negotiations with their play on Sunday. In addition we will also look at one player signed in the offseason to a new contract that did not live up to the expectations that his contract sets for the player.

Stock Down

Ike Taylor– The 33 year old corner was torched by Browns receiver Josh Gordon to the tune of 169 yards on 11 targets according to Pro Football Focus. Though the Steelers playoff hopes remain alive it does not change their salary cap situation in 2014 and Taylor with an $11.9 million dollar cap charge is likely on his way out the door. I believe the Steelers would be interested in keeping him at a lower cost but its games like this that have to make them worry about matching him up against some of the young talented wideouts that have made their way into the AFC North.

Ben Tate– Injury or no injury, Tate’s stock has plummeted. 7 carries for 1 yard against the Jaguars?  Maybe the Texans have given up on the year but Tate can not afford to do the same in a contract season. Case Keenum is not the answer at QB but  teams rumored to be looking at Tate were likely thinking that he would help alleviate pressure on a below average QB. A few weeks ago Tate criticized Texans fans for not giving the Texans the support they deserve. For the last few weeks Tate’s failed to give the fans the production they expected to see.

Santonio Holmes– Holmes had one of those “who cares” games on Sunday where he seemed to be going through the motions seeing the writing on the wall for his team. Holmes had two drops and just one reception for the beleaguered Jets. Though not entirely his fault, Holmes has only caught 38% of his targets this season which is brutal, even for the Jets. The next worst receiver on the team is Stephen Hill with a 49% catch rate. If you take away his huge game against the Bills he is  averaging a 32% catch rate with 1,6 receptions and 34.4 yards per game. He’s guaranteed to be cut this year due to his cap figure and was hoping to cash in elsewhere. Between injuries, lack of effectiveness, and general perceptions about his attitude that pool of teams will be rapidly shrinking as will any offers for him.

New Contract Disappointment Of The Week

Sebastian Janikowski– In our best and worst contract series I had pegged Janikowski as the worst contract on the Raiders and that was before they inexplicably signed him to another extension in the offseason. Janikowski carries a $4.9 million base cap charge this season and over $3 million next year. The Raiders continue to make him the highest paid kicker in the NFL despite the fact that  there is no metric in the world that would rank him as the best kicker or anywhere close to it. The only thing he has going for him is that Oakland is confident in letting him try from long range knowing it will reach the goalpost. Yesterday he missed a 32 and a 48 yard field goal which proved to be the Raiders undoing in a game where they could have taken control of the Wildcard lead. Janikowski seemed to blame his holder. He now has 4 misses inside 50 yards this year. 

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Stock Down: Week 10

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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Every Monday during the season we will take a look back at three players who are entering important stages of their contract that may have hurt their stock in upcoming negotiations with their play on Sunday. In addition we will also look at one player signed in the offseason to a new contract that did not live up to the expectations that his contract sets for the player.

Stock Down

Ben Tate– I wrote Sunday about how Tate was going to get an opportunity that could make or break a new contract for him and on Sunday it certainly broke. Tate, replacing Arian Foster, finished Sunday with just 56 yards on 15 carries and added next to nothing in the passing game. Tate is not in the most ideal of circumstances- he’s injured himself and his QB is not respected yet- but he has to make the most of this situation. If he fails to deliver over the next few weeks it will be hard to convince another team that Tate should be a highly paid starter.

Colin Kaepernick– During the offseason I was getting questions about how would the 49ers afford $20 million a year on Kaepernick. I thought that was an extremely high estimate and I have to think now most agree. Since being named starter last season Kaepernick had just 1 game in which he passed for under 200 yards and that includes his terrific playoff run. In 2013 he has had 7 games under 200 yards including a 91 yard game yesterday at home against the Panthers. I think Kaepernick has pretty much lost that special aura he had about him last year and with it will go the dreams of an incredibly lucrative extension in the offseason. He’ll still get an extension offer but unless he begins to play better the dollars of that offer are falling every week.

Jake Locker– Locker was injured again this week following just a disastrous start against the lowly Jaguars in which he was intercepted once and fumbled. Locker who had already missed two games this year following a hip injury will now most likely finish the season on Injured Reserve. If the injury is season ending it will leave Locker with 14 missed games over a two year stretch due to injury. Locker was eligible for either an extension or an injury guaranteed option year in 2015 that would have been worth close to $9 million. Though picking up the option for most players seems to be a foregone conclusion, with Lockers injury history I don’t think the Titans can afford to do that. Not only that but when you can not count on a player it means bringing in real competition for the spot not journeyman backups and mentors like Locker has had since 2011.

New Contract Disappointment Of The Week

Tony Romo– Romo has had his share of good games this season, but last night was not one of them. Romo and the offense was thoroughly confused by a defense that had given up over 24 points in two of their last three games. Romo could never get anything going down the field and was settling for short little throws This was by far Romo’s worst game of the season on a day where the Cowboys needed an A+ effort to go toe to toe with a high powered Saints offense. Romo did not deliver and the Cowboys were embarrassed by the Saints. Romo always get more than a fair share of criticism and this game will bring more of that his way and deservedly so in this case.

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RB Arian Foster Done For the Year

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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According to NFL.com Houston Texans Running Back Arian Foster is headed to Injured Reserve, which will end his 2013 season. Foster, who earns $31,250 for each game his is active, will lose out on $250,000 in compensation for the year due to the injury. His 2014 salary cap number will also reduce by $250,000 due to half of his 2014 roster bonus now considers not likely to be earned.

For Foster the injury could be a long term consideration for his contractual future. Running backs in the NFL are traditionally only effective for a short period and with the Texans failing badly this year there will naturally be questions about paying $5.75 million in base salary to a player who will have essentially missed 13 games (he barely played in two games this year because of injuries) in the last three seasons. Foster will only be 28 next year so he is not at the age where teams really begin to shy away from the runners, but it could be a consideration. Releasing Foster would save the team $1 million in cap space in 2014.

Foster has some added protection because Fantex has pledged a ridiculous $10 million dollars for a low percentage of his future “brand income”. This money should be contingent on Fantex raising the money through a Foster IPO and I wonder if an injury now damages their chances of raising the money. Provided they raise it, and I would imagine enough fans want to “own” a part of a player, Foster will have little to worry about.

The injury to Foster now opens the door for backup Ben Tate to prove that he is worth a starting position in the NFL. Tate will be a free agent following the season. There have been questions about Tate’s ability to handle a full load and he will get to answer those questions now. While I doubt he will get the kind of contract some have speculated about (upwards of $7 million a season) a strong showing should be able to get him in the Reggie Bush area of $3.5 to $4 million a season. A poor showing and he may have to settle for being a secondary back in the future.

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Stock Down: Week 6

Posted on by Jason Fitzgerald

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Every Monday during the season we will take a look back at three players who are entering important stages of their contract that may have hurt their stock in upcoming negotiations with their play on Sunday. In addition we will also look at one player signed in the offseason to a new contract that did not live up to the expectations that his contract sets for the player.

Stock Down

Antonio Cromartie– In 2012 Cromartie was arguably the best player on the Jets defense often drawing the most difficult assignment and shutting him down. 2013 has been a completely different story. Cromartie has been ineffective and often is spending a good deal of time playing catch up anytime someone puts a move on him at the start of a play. While he was nursing a knee injury yesterday he has been giving up too many big plays on the season and yesterday was no exception as he was toasted by Emmanuel Sanders of the Steelers on a 55 yard touchdown pass. Cromartie is set to earn $9.5 million next season and with a cap charge close to $15 million dollars this is essentially a free agent season for the cornerback. Give the soft state of the CB market and general worries about happens when Cromartie gets older and begins to lose some of that explosiveness, this is as bad a time as any for this kind of season.

Chris Johnson–  Johnson spent a long time trying to get an extension with the Titans following his explosion in 2009 where he rushed for 2000 yards. Finally in 2011 the Titans caved and signed him to an absurd contract making nearly $13.5 million a year with $30 million in guarantees. Johnson, unlike Adrian Peterson, was never able to recapture that real special season and has been little more than one of many overpaid and underperforming running backs. Yesterday Johnson was nearly worthless against the Seahawks rushing for just 33 yards on 12 carries. What’s even scarier is that this was his best game in 3 weeks. His 3 week total is now just 71 rushing yards on 37 carries for an average of 1.9. Johnson has a $10 million dollar cap figure and will earn $8 million in 2014. With just $6 million in dead money he’ll likely be cut and will probably not make $8 million over the span of the entire contract he signs with someone next season.

Ben Tate– Tate had tremendous expectations going into the season and early in the year there seemed to be a chance that he was going to get more work as he looked explosive at times. At some point a team would be convinced that he could be a featured back and he would get his salary in the $5 million a year range. But a few fumbles later and a resurgent set of performances by starter Arian Foster has seen Tate maintain a minimal workload. Tate only saw action on 20 snaps and it seems as if most of them came in mop up time when the game was out of reach.  On the second to last drive he did score a touchdown and pick up a 4th down conversion but that came after being stuffed three times in short yardage situations. All in all he ended up with 10 carries for 12 yards. He needs to get more meaningful opportunities and do better in the opportunities provided to try to get that contract he wants from someone next season.

New Contract Disappointment Of The Week

Greg Jennings– The Vikings paid Jennings big money to help revive their struggling passing attack but for the most part he has just become another limited use piece in the Minnesota offense. Jennings caught 6 passes on Sunday for just 34 yards. He is on pace to have his worst statistical non-injury plagued year since his rookie season. Despite earning $9 million a season he ranks 3rd on the team in both receptions and yards. It’s not all his fault but he’s a perfect example as to why in 90% of the cases you need to have some type of QB in place before spending big money on a wide receiver. The Ponder/Cassel tandem was not that type of QB.

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