Declining RB Production and NFL Contract Modeling

Posted on June 19, 2014June 17, 2015 by Jason Fitzgerald

Though plenty has been written on the decline of the running back at 30, I figured why not add to that with a focus on the contract and likelihood of players performing. It’s a good topic if you are interested in working in the NFL, simply like Fantasy Football, or are going to take a more holistic look at Fantex valuations in the future. Plus with all the discussion on giving Seahawks’ RB Marshawn Lynch a raise and a new contract to reflect what he has accomplished combined with fact that a number of solid NFL running backs are about to make that turn into the late 20’s, it’s a good time to look at those late 20 years.

As a quick study I wanted to go back and look at all running backs between the year 2000 and 2013 that had at least one 100 carry season between the ages of 25 and 27. There is no magic to the 100 carries as it was just an arbitrary cutoff point that I figured would at least let us focus on players who do get reasonable use in the NFL. I also just wanted to look at players whose age 25-27 seasons all occurred in the 2000’s (so no Curtis Martin types).

All told 70 players qualified for the study. Since originally I did this with Lynch in mind I wanted to look at a three year weighted average with a team placing 50% on the 27 year old season, 35% on the 26 year old season, and 15% on the 25 year old season to set a baseline performance. I also included the regular three year average. Here is the group of players and the resulting stats:

The top of the list is a who’s-who in fantasy magazine covers and I forgot just how great LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson were for a period of time. Adrian Peterson’s numbers would have been even more ridiculous if he would (or could) have been pushed the same way those others were. The first thing I want to look at is what percentage of the group (with the top number adjusted for removal of active players) remained in the NFL at each age bracket.

A majority of NFL teams have decided that by 31 most of the players no longer belong in the league, though a few make it to 33 and beyond.

How do the players fare when compared to their 25-27 weighted averages? Not very good. Here is the percentage decline for the players that remain at each age:

If we just look at higher end players (average above 750 yards) the declines are more or less just as steep, with slightly better yardage drops but massive drops in touchdowns, which is a huge deal for the fantasy folks.

Very few players were more productive with age. Thomas Jones, Tiki Barber, Warrick Dunn, and Frank Gore were the guys who were more productive as they got older in terms of overall yardage production. Most of the other players saw major declines.

So if we expect average performance where does that leave Marshawn Lynch and some of the comparable players going forward? I have 13 current players here that should be 28 or 29 this year and here is what the team would expect from the player in terms of yards, assuming he doesn’t flame out:

So if we are acting as the cap manager of the team it’s this forward look that we need to make when we decide on signing a player to a new contract. That’s not to say that Peterson will degrade this badly, but the expectation moving forward would be closer to this rather than where he has been for most of his career.

Of course a team should take on all factors into account when arriving at a price and the above chart gives numbers based on average performance and not being released. The threat of release has to be taken into account as does the chance of both better and worse than average performances.

Though the sample size is not that large we can illustrate a way that a team should price point a player. We’ll use Lynch as an example because he’s somewhat relevant. What I want to do is determine likelihood of various events by breaking expectations up into 4 categories: catastrophic (cut necessary), bad (falls off cliff performance/injury), average (mid grade performance), and great (top performers). We can assign odds of the performance based on number of players who rate in that level, but to make things easier Ill just break the non-release categories into three groups and use the average of each. This is more or less what I would refer to as using financial scenario modeling to build a contract value.

Here are the expected increase or decrease in yards (based on the 3 year weighted average) per year:

Combining that with the life cycle numbers from above we would need to weigh Lynch’s yardage as follows:

When I come up with a value for a contract I need to base my thoughts on getting around 2,500 yards over a 4 year period from Lynch. More likely I would look at this chart and say he will likely be worthless to the team at the age of 30 and 31. Of course we can adjust various scenarios by varying the expectation levels beyond here, which is probably wise to do if in a bidding war with another team or you reach an impasse and need to determine how far you can go.

Using these numbers I would match a contract with each figure. Just as a rough estimate I would say a 1,000 yard runner is worth around $5.5 million, a 750 yard runner around $3 million and the last two years the minimum which is around $1 million. All told I would not offer a contract more than 4 years for $10.5 million in realistic dollars.

What I mean by realistic dollars is that the salary offered in 2016 and especially 2017 is worthless since he will likely be cut. If I believe strongly in Lynch I might offer close to $10.5 million over the first two years and fluff up the rest of the deal with money that I know will never be earned.

Now the other day I did say that perhaps a solution to the Lynch situation might include a signing bonus and we can use these charts to provide guidance on that. Knowing the odds of needing to release him the following year we can come up with an average amount of dead money we would anticipate based on signing bonus levels. The following table shows how much dead money we would allocate to Lynch in each year based on signing bonuses of $6, $4, and $2 million on a two year extension. Please note the age 29 row includes dead money from his current signing bonus as well.

Based on these numbers I would say that the team should consider no more than a $4 million signing bonus, half of which will likely result in dead money. Using a format like this can actually help identify how much dead money a team can anticipate each year on the books if we analyze every player on a roster and assume teams did not let the cap dictate roster status.

Lynch is already scheduled to earn $5.5 million this year so there would be basically no reason to touch Lynch’s contract at all right now as he is valued right in 2014 and there would be no benefit to a signing bonus to pacify him unless he reduced his salary in 2015 to the $4 million level. Considering he is looking for a raise I cant see him being agreeable to any deal. About the only way to get a deal both sides would be happy with is to include escalators or incentives that paid Lynch larger sums of money if he was in that rare group that continued to play well into their 30’s. Otherwise it’s contract reduction not increase for him and likely for many others who will soon be in similar situations.

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The Costs of Moving Adrian Peterson

Posted on December 6, 2013 by Jason Fitzgerald

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Yesterday Adrian Peterson mentioned to ESPN’s SVP and Russillo that the thought had crossed his mind about finishing his career with the Cowboys, the team he grew up watching and cheering for as a young man. Is it possible?

While Peterson is under contract to the Minnesota Vikings through 2017, there is minimal financial reasons for the Vikings to keep Peterson. Peterson’s cap charge in 2014 is $14.4 million and removing him from the roster frees up $9.6 million in cap space and eliminates a cash payment of $12 million due to Peterson.

While Peterson is the best running back in the NFL his salary numbers are pretty outrageous for the position. His cap charge is $4.4 million higher than our estimated second highest cap charge at the position. His cash salary is $3.625 million higher. With the lessening impact of the position through the last five years it is an investment few teams might be willing to make.

For as great as Peterson was in 2012 when he won the NFL MVP award the best the Vikings could muster was a Wildcard berth and first round exit in the playoffs. This season Minnesota has struggled and is in contention for a top draft pick. They have no Quarterback, having gone through Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, and Josh Freeman at various points of the season, and their star defensive player, DE Jared Allen, is about to leave in free agency. Most likely this is a team prepared to rebuild and rebuilding often does not include a 29 year old running back making $14 million a year over the next few seasons.

Though cutting Peterson should not be an option (there is no benefit in that for Minnesota short or long term)since the team salary cap is not a major issue, trading him should be a consideration. The $9.6 million in cap that is freed up in 2014 and $15.4 million freed up in 2015 can go towards signing multiple players to replenish a barren roster and the draft picks can be used to rebuild an organization from the ground up.

For an acquiring team Peterson would come over with non-guaranteed salaries and cap charges of $12, $13, $15, and $16 million from 2014 through 2017 (remember the Vikings would keep the prorated portion of his contract currently factored into his cap hits). Obviously these numbers are very high which would limit the market to two types of teams. One would be those with a great deal of cap room to simply absorb the yearly charges, increase their payroll and have no dead money in the contract. This would be a team like the Browns (and how funny would that be if they essentially flipped Trent Richardson for Adrian Peterson). The other is a team that just plans for the short term and sees a window of opportunity. That is where the Cowboys could come into play.

Dallas is a team only concerned with the now. Their salary cap planning has been very shortsighted and player friendly. They live year to year and continue to defer costs to the future to help compete in the present. Peterson would fit right in the mold of contract that the Cowboys would associate themselves with.

The Cowboys cap problems are well known but it would be easy to take Peterson for one year in a trade. They could simply reduce his $12 million salary to about the minimum, add a voidable season to the contract, and prorate the difference. This is what Dallas has done for years with their players. Reducing his salary to $1 million and giving him the rest in the form of a signing bonus would reduce the cap charge from $12 million to $3.2 million. His cap charge the next year would be $15.2 million with $8.8 million in dead money if released, but for a team only concerned with the now that probably does not matter. So the move is one that could be made by the Cowboys.

While this would not replenish the Hershel Walker heist from all those years ago I would think a first round pick would need to be involved for the Vikings to make the deal and be able to spin it as a positive. If Dallas was to make such a move I think they would need to consider a philosophical change to the way they approach offense. For years Tony Romo has been over 80% of the Cowboys offense. They like to throw the football. That number has to come down to a normal play selection if you are bringing in Peterson. Peterson’s value is nowhere near his price tag if the Cowboys run him 12-15 times a game.

So maybe it’s all just a pipe dream for all involved here, but the Vikings are going to be making changes this year and Peterson may not fit into those changes if the right price is offered from another franchise. Maybe come February we’ll get a better idea of what the Vikings are thinking regarding him.

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Projecting a Contract for the Saints Jimmy Graham

Posted on October 11, 2013 by Jason Fitzgerald

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One of the biggest name free agents in 2014 will be Tight End Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints. Because of his incredible start to the season, racking up 593 yards in just 4 weeks, he and his pending contract have become discussion points around the league, so we’ll take our look as well at Graham and see what could lie in store.

Statistically Speaking

I think there is a perception around the NFL that Graham had little to gain by having another incredible season this year. I actually agreed with that until running some of the numbers on Graham for the last two years where and comparing them with a number of other “high end” Tight Ends in the NFL over the same time frame. While Graham produced the most yards of any player at the position over the two year period he was also the most targeted player at the position. His numbers were actually behind those of Rob Gronkowski on a per game basis. Here are the two year averages at the position for the top 10 in cumulative yards from 2011 and 2012.

Had Graham been extended before this season I would think it would be arguable about approaching the contract numbers of Gronkowski. Unless the argument is strictly based on games (which is certainly important) Graham would not track as the best in the NFL at the position. That changes for Graham this season.

Graham is on pace for a 118 reception season for a ridiculous 1897 yards. His catch rate is up to nearly 70% and he is averaging 16 yards per reception. With Gronkowski on the shelf with another set of injuries Graham has distanced himself from the field and even if he slows down on the year, he should have done enough to break away from the pack. But if Graham finished the year with 1000-1100 yards I don’t think his leverage would nearly be as high as many people believed coming into the season.

Pushing Beyond the Position

Graham is going to shatter records this year with the type of season he is having which is going to bring up the major question of whether or not Graham should be treated as a Wide Receiver or a Tight End. From a contract standpoint there is a major difference between the two positions. The highest paid Tight End averages $9 million a season. $9 million is less than Miles Austin makes per year with the Dallas Cowboys. So the disparity between the two positions is great. But this is an argument that no player has been able to win in the past. Can Graham?

The current highest ever receiving total for a Tight End is 1,397 yards which was accomplished by Gronkowski in 2011. Graham’s 2011 output of 1,310 yards ranks second all time. Only four players in the history of the NFL have produced more than 1,200 yards at the Tight End position. So the type of numbers Graham is producing are historic, but are they WR contract worthy?

For Graham to be in the conversation we obviously need to make some assumptions. The assumption I will make is that he will finish the year with about 1,540 yards, meaning he’ll produce for 13 weeks this season at his current rate and have three games of no production. This averages out to about 90 yards a game down the stretch of the season which is not unreasonable all things considered.

I want to take the three year averages for Graham and compare them to the top 10 paid receivers in the NFL at the time they signed their contracts. So for Brandon Marshall we will be looking at his 3 year stats from 2007 through 2009 with the Denver Broncos and not with the Dolphins or Bears since those stats had no bearing on the contract he received. I will also include Gronkowski’s numbers for the last three seasons in the mix.

Graham, if he meets the production levels of the assumption, does not just track with the most highly compensated players in the NFL, he exceeds their performance. He ranks 2nd in receptions, 5th in targets, 2nd in yards, 2nd in touchdowns, 3rd in yards per game, 3rd in catch rate, 9th in yards per reception, and 7th in yards per target. Those would be exceptional numbers and he will likely be the first Tight End to produce at this kind of level walking into a contract year (I say likely because Tony Gonzalez possibly could have been in a similar spot back in 2005).

One of the arguments against Graham will likely be the offense that he plays in inflates his stats because of all the weapons the team has at their disposal. While there is some truth to that he is the most targeted receiver on his team the last few years and is the player who should get the most defensive attention on the Saints team. Saints QB Drew Brees does spread the football around so he may not be a number 1 like a Brandon Marshall who has the entire passing game run through him, but it does compare favorably to many on this list including Wallace, Jackson and Harvin.

Perhaps the bigger argument against Graham will be age. Graham, despite so few years in the NFL, will be 28 in 2014. So this is not signing a very young player like Gronkowski who will only be 25 next season. He is going to be looked at as more of a veteran in terms of years ahead of him. Still this is a prime age and the continued success of Witten, Gonzalez, Gates, plus numerous Wide Receivers over the age of 30 should help him fight any such arguments.

The Saints First Move

In hindsight the Saints probably made a mistake not extending Graham this season. Part of that was circumstances as the Saints had, and continue to have, a poor salary cap situation and they decided to try to keep the team intact rather than creating room that could have allowed for an extension that would have been slightly less than the one given to Gronkowski. Now he should surpass Gronkowski by quite a bit. At this point I’m not sure the Saints would even benefit from an extension now rather than next season.

The Saints, despite the cap woes, will apply the Franchise tag to Graham to control his rights next season. This is where Graham will need to argue that he is a WR and not a TE with the League. The Franchise tag for a Tight End is in the ballpark of $6 million compared to $10.5 million for a Wide Receiver. The Saints will need to shave significant salary to be cap compliant in 2014 so that extra $4.5 million is of major importance. Getting the WR designation would also remove the threat of the Exclusive franchise tag as it would be in the ballpark of $14.5 million for a receiver and just $8.5 million for a TE.

Removing that threat is important for Graham, who will not want to play under any tag provisions that will only bring him closer to 30 when true free agency finally begins. In 2012 the Saints applied the Exclusive tag to QB Drew Brees. The two sides fought over a contract until mid-July when the Saints finally gave in to Brees’ desire to earn $20 million a season. Graham’s best contract will come from a situation where he can shop himself around the NFL even at the cost of a number 1 draft pick. If he gets that WR designation the Saints will be in a position where they are forced to negotiate for cap purposes.

I do think that Brees’ contract is also helpful in that Brees was the first player in the NFL to break the $20 million dollar barrier. At the time the highest paid player in the NFL was Peyton Manning at $19.2 million and behind him was Tom Brady at a shade above $18 million. In terms of percentage raise over top of the market that would place Graham somewhere between $9.4 and $9.9 million a year which I would guess would be the absolute least he would take if his played trailed off dramatically over the next 11 games. Graham is superior to Gronkowski at this point so arguing a raise should be simple. At the least Graham should be making it a point to be the first TE to break the $10 million a year barrier the same way that Brees was the guy who broke the $20 million number.

Contract Guesstimates

Now even though the numbers are projected to be exceptional for Graham and he is going to enter a contract period off his best season, dreaming of Fitzgerald/Johnson money is ludicrous. These are players I refer to as “break the system” players in that their salaries are so far above the norms for elite players that they have broken the contract system in place in the NFL.

Last year Calvin Johnson’s contract represented a 67% increase over the 5th highest salary at the WR position. In other words he(well actually Fitzgerald since he was the original huge contract) broke the pay system in place. That number has decreased now (44.7%), but in part that is because Johnson’s and Fitzgerald’s contracts raised the market for the likes of Bowe and Wallace. Other position busters include Adrian Peterson (86.3%, around 65% at time of signing) and Darrelle Revis (64.1%). You have to be a special talent to break the system. The other player who did it would be Chris Johnson, who set the standard a few days before Peterson received his extension from Minnesota. That is really it.

If I am Jimmy Graham I want to break the system. That has to be my goal in this negotiation. While in the worst possible case I may settler for $10 million a year the reality is that I want Graham to be a position buster. Gronkowski failed to do that. His $9 million a year salary represented a 24% increase over the 5^th highest paid player at his position. Using this logic helps me avoid the WR vs TE debate. I will agree Graham is a Tight End provided that the Saints agree that he has separated himself apart from the field the way all the others have. I think that is an easier argument to have than first going down the Wide Receiver versus Tight End route.

The two star receivers were unique. They were devastating number 1 targets that could not be replaced and had created a great deal of separation between themselves and the rest of the receivers in the NFL. The two running backs were unique and had were the only non-QB’s in the NFL that teams felt they could build around. Revis, in his prime with the Jets, had no peer. All of these players impacted the game beyond the norms of their position. Graham is that same type of player.

This is not a negotiation about earning “receiver money”. It should be a negotiation about recognizing how great the separation is between Graham and Jason Witten or Jared Cook. The numbers show how superior Graham is to those players. You can compare him to a WR the way Revis could be compared to a pass rusher or Peterson to a QB. Those players could find ways to back that up and so can Graham if he finishes this season over 1,500 yards.

I want to be somewhere around that 65% raise level that most of the others were at the time they signed their contracts. Once Graham is signed the 5th highest contract on the books should be that of Antonio Gates at $7.235 million. That works Graham out to be just under $11.94 million a season. That should be the fair number for him. It will ensure that he is the highest paid Tight End for, most likely, the entire contract.

Graham will probably earn anywhere from 48% to 50% of the contract in the first three years, based on some of the other contracts that we want to use as a guideline. Revis receives 50% over the first three years, though his deal contained no guarantees. Fitzgerald earned nearly 52.5% of the 6 year contract value in his first three new money years while Calvin Johnson and Peterson earned 48%. Chris Johnson’s contract was just 4 years in length so we will throw that one out. Looking at those numbers it’s reasonable for Graham to receive around $34.38 million within the first three seasons of his contract. That number will far surpass the $30 million earned by Gronkowski .

In terms of a first year cash payout we come up with the following: Revis earned 16.7%, Peterson 20.8%, Fitzgerald 34%, and Johnson 29.7%. I think it’s also worth mentioning that Gronkowski earned 22% of his contract in the first year and that the Saints were willing to go to 40% of the contract value for Brees. Knowing that Tight End is not considered a premier position, I don’t think I would touch the WR numbers. Peterson and Revis would be in similar less importance positions and accordingly received much less up front. I think I would be happy hitting the same percentage as Gronkowski, which works out to a payout of $15.76 million in 2014. Regardless, he needs to earn about 34% of his deal in the first two years to keep pace with the “system breakers”.

How to Keep Him on the Saints

Some of the numbers we are talking about are pretty steep. I currently have the Saints estimates around $138 million in 2014 cap commitments. Just to reach the salary cap limits they will need to bring that number down to around $124.5 million. $11.5 million will be created by releasing Will Smith and from there they will need to begin restructuring contracts to get below the salary cap limits and have room for completing their roster. Their cap does not get much better in 2015 either, so Graham is going to need to carry low cap figures in the first two years of his contract.

That will work in Graham’s favor because it is going to require the use of multiple prorated bonuses to artificially lower his cap numbers while keeping the cash outflows high. Though I don’t believe the Saints are a big option bonus team I would imagine that the contract will either contain an option bonus in 2015 or be designed to allow for a conversion of salary to prorated bonus.

My proposed contract structure will contain a minimum salary in 2014 and close to the minimum in 2015. I would use a $15 million dollar signing bonus and a $7.5 million option bonus payable in 2014. I’d have the first two years salaries fully guaranteed with an injury guarantee in 2016. I don’t believe that the Saints would need to go higher than that on the guarantees unless they need to backup the option with a guarantee. Considering the dead money in the deal Graham probably can concede on the paper guarantees. Here would be a proposed contract structure:

And here is how our cash flows will work out:

This is going to be a very player friendly contract that will essentially ensure him of earning those first three seasons. His fourth year is virtually guaranteed unless the Saints choose to designate him a June 1 cut. For that reason I would imagine in this structure a roster bonus of $4-$5 million being in place in 2017 to ensure a quick decision by New Orleans. The high cap figures in 2017 and 2018 should force the Saints into an early extension or a release which at 31 and 32 years old would be a final chance to cash in.

The Saints get the low cap figures in the first two years. Applying an exclusive tag to Graham in 2014 would cost around $8.5 million. Under this proposed deal he is only going to carry $9.33 million in salary cap charges in 2014 and 2015 combined. That is a major benefit for the Saints. The cap structure is flexible enough to keep the June 1 release a possibility in the fourth year so they would have some outs after investing around $34 million in Graham for three years in the event he or the team goes south.

Overall I would think if Graham keeps this pace up he will have an exceptional chance at reaching the numbers discussed here. In the NFL teams will always find a way to keep the players that they feel are irreplaceable and I would be quite surprised if Graham is wearing another uniform at any point over the next few years. I’d expect this deal to be done certainly before the 2014 offseason begins and maybe even this year if the Saints feel that they have unused cap room that can be used towards the contract.

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Revaluing the Running Back Marketplace

Posted on May 11, 2013May 11, 2013 by Jason Fitzgerald

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Now that contracts have kind of slowed down I wanted to get back into doing positional valuations, this time with a focus on Running Backs. As is usual the raw data comes from Pro Football Focus with the analysis of numbers being somewhat unique. In general I want to grade running backs on 3 categories: Yards After Contact, Player Generated Yards Before Contact, and Player Generated Yards Per Target.

Yards After Contact

I think this is pretty simple and straightforward. Once touched whatever yards a runner gains are essentially all due to his effort. The average in the league last year was around 2.5. Of runners with more than 50 attempts the best average was actually Justin Forsett, now of the Jaguars, with 4.11 YAC per attempt. Adrian Peterson was second at 3.93 and CJ Spiller third at 3.58. The bottom three were Beanie Wells, Danny Woodhead, and Bilal Powell. This is the one pure PFF stat.

Player Generated Yards Before Contact

Running the rushing numbers for all teams we can determine just how many rushing yards are attributed to an offensive line keeping hands off a player. Last season the top 3 were the Chiefs (2.59), Titans(2.23), and Seahawks(2.15) while the Panthers pulled up the rear (0.98). I adjusted each teams numbers to exclude the specific runner in question which allows us to determine just how many yards before contact that player generates compared to all other runners on the team. In essence this tells us if a player is hitting the hole faster than others and determining yards before contact that are attributed to the runner as much as the up front blocking. The top 3 in this category were Chris Johnson (1.74), Jamaal Charles (1.36), and Maurice Jones-Drew (1.15). The worst three were Peyton Hills (-1.71), Rashad Jennings (-1.21), and Fred Jackson (-0.98).

Player Generated Yards Per Target

The average YPT last year among runners was about 6.19. With that in mind we can calculate how many additional yards a player generated on pass routes than an average running back. On a per catch basis the best players with at least 20 targets were Isaac Redman(6.0), Ahmad Bradshaw(3.7), and Danny Woodhead(3.42).

Analysis

By adding those numbers up we can calculate how many additional yards a player generated for his team last season as well as his average Yards Per Touch. It should come as no shock that Adrian Peterson comes in first with 1504.9 credited yards. Quite simply Peterson carried that team in a manner few other players could. He generated close to 600 yards of additional offense compared to a regular player. The next closest player was Alfred Morris at 1069.6 yards but he only generated around 185 yards of additional offense.

That being said the most interesting number might be that of the Bills CJ Spiller. Spiller only touched the ball 250 times last year but in doing so generated 1019 additional yards. At 4.08 YPT he actually rates even higher than Peterson, who was second at 3.88. This is based primarily on the fact that Spiller is a terrific receiver while Peterson is below average. On a Yards Per Run basis Peterson outpaced Spiller 4.55 to 4.35. While it is certainly questionable that Spiller can carry the ball as much as Peterson and continue to hold up those two are so far and away the best in the NFL that nobody should even debate anyone else at this point as being the best two backs. Of course you cant pay Spiller at that level until he proves he can handle the ball as much as some of these other players, but he’s deadly.

When you look for “cross your fingers” high upside players, Mike Goodson and Justin Forsett come to mind. Both barely made the 50 touch minimum cutoff but both put up good numbers in limited showings. Montell Owens and Isaac Redman were also surprising high finishers. Owens is a limited showing guy while Redman is strictly from his efforts in the passing game last year. I was also shocked o see DeAngelo Williams in the top 10. Maybe his team being so bad up front and his lack of usage has more to do with how poor his regular numbers are moreso than his play.

On the opposite end of the spectrum come names like Shonn Greene who was below average in every category but got tons of touches to create decent overall numbers. Still he was far better than Darren McFadden, a high priced bust on the Raiders who should be let go based on his numbers while Trent Richardson was an absolute disaster as a rookie averaging just 1.19 player generated yards per touch.

Financial Analysis

I wanted to create a matrix that would re-distribute the dollars that are currently being spent on the NFL players that made my 50 touch cutoff. To do this I added up all the APY values for the players in the current NFL season to create the “runners market”. For those players who are without deals I just assumed they would be replaced by a UDFA making an average of $495,000 per year. The average APY is around $2.692 million and total value just under $210 million.

Originally I just planned to determine a players total yards generated above the average and use that as his value above the baseline of $2.692 million. Great, except immediately I realized how badly that was overstating players values who got a lot of use (Greene, Richardson, Steven Jackson, etc…) to inflate their yards despite the fact that it was not productive use. Now that does not mean that you simply look at a category like Yards per Touch to determine value either. Some credit needs to be given for a player who is capable of shouldering a load even though the numbers are so bad. My gut feeling tells me that their numbers would likely be better if used less and maybe that is something for teams to consider when signing such players. I tend to think that was the feeling the Titans had with Greene.

To best compensate I calculated the players yards and compared it to the expected yardage of an average player. If the ratio was below 1 I penalized the player. For example Richardson only gained about 70% of the expected yards so I considered his 379 yards to be equivalent to paying for 265 yards. With those adjustments in place I was able to redistribute all the league dollars based on performance above or below the average score.

The Results

Not surprisingly the numbers work out that the upper echelon of the market is hyperinflated, which is certainly no surprise. Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson are both position busters and could almost never do anything to justify the salary they receive. Peterson had arguably the best season a back has ever had but there are enough good backs and ultra low salaries that the value just is not there at the high end. Peterson’s salary under this formula would be just under $11.4 million, a 19.8% decrease from his current APY.

I have 15 backs in my actual salary database that make over $5 million a year and of those 15 this metric indicates that only CJ Spiller, Jamaal Charles, and Marshawn Lynch are underpaid. Most of the others are grossly overpaid. McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew and Jonathan Stewart should have their salaries reduced by over 70% each. The big money jumpers would obviously be the rookies, with Alfred Morris leading the way giving you an $8 million or so performance on an APY less than 600K a year. The Redskins are getting absolutely incredible production from Morris and fellow rookie QB RGIII for pennies which is how they survived last year despite major salary cap problems.

Of those players unsigned, Ahmad Bradshaw and Michael Turner should be able to give a team something significant and Felix Jones would also be an interesting player. In some ways its hard to believe they are not signed. In Turners case it probably needs to be the right situation in that he likely benefitted from an explosive offense making some situations a bit easier. Bradshaw and Jones have to have the injuries scaring teams off, Bradshaw in particular. Bradshaws numbers are all very good but he is injured a lot. It is difficult for teams to prepare when you have a player constantly coming in and out of the starting lineup. Still if he performs as he did last year he will give you around $5 million in value for probably the veteran’s minimum. If you make certain your offense is never in a position to over-rely on his presence you can mitigate the injury risk.

There were a handful of players whose projected salaries were so low that they don’t belong in the NFL anymore. They were Curtis Brinkley, Peyton Hills, Rashad Jennings, Ryan Williams, Shaun Draughn, Tashard Choice, and Toby Gerhart. Hillis was arguably the worst back in the NFL last season. Other players who would be close are Fred Jackson, whose projection probably does not meet his minimum salary, and Cedric Benson.

Here is the full list of players: All headers should be sortable. Please note that players like Bradshaw have their salary change based on a rookie FA salary.

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