After that first down catch on 2nd and 15 by Tyreek Hill was reversed, the 49ers had a 96.1% chance of victory with just 7:17 left in the fourth quarter. The ensuing 44-yard catch by Hill on 3rd and 15 increased KC’s probability of victory by 13.2% to 17.1%.
If that play didn’t happen, everyone is having entirely different conversations about Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy G, Andy Reid, and Patrick Mahomes.
There is a lot that people will talk about, the brilliance of Andy Reid, the narrative that Kyle Shanahan choked, or something else. People are already talking about how the 49ers get rid of Jimmy G and move on to someone else.
Football games can come down to a single play, oftentimes it’ll be three to five important plays. But last night, that one singular play changed the entire conversation around the sport for the foreseeable future.
After that first down catch on 2nd and 15 by Tyreek Hill was reversed, the 49ers had a 96.1% chance of victory with just 7:17 left in the fourth quarter. The ensuing 44-yard catch by Hill on 3rd and 15 increased KC’s probability of victory by 13.2% to 17.1%.
If that play didn’t happen, everyone is having entirely different conversations about Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy G, Andy Reid, and Patrick Mahomes.
There is a lot of talk today about the brilliance of Andy Reid, the narrative that Kyle Shanahan choked, or something else. People are already talking about how the 49ers get rid of Jimmy G and moving on to someone else.
If that play doesn’t happen, everyone is talking about how the 49ers built a defensive line that seemed to overwhelm the young Mahomes at times, as it would anyone, as he was pressured on 20 of 49 dropbacks in the game per Pro Football Focus. Despite that, the Chiefs averaged over seven yards per play on those dropbacks, which is over double the NFL average this season. A remarkable feat.
Football games can come down to a single play, oftentimes it’ll be three to five important plays. But last night, that one singular play changed the entire conversation around the sport for the foreseeable future.
What I do know from last night’s game is that everything the passing analytics guys are saying about passing seems to be true. If you have The Guy at QB, you’re never out of it, no matter how well rounded the opponent may seem. Mahomes proved that all post-season.
Football games can come down to a single play, oftentimes it’ll be three to five important plays. But last night, that one singular play changed the entire conversation around the sport for the foreseeable future.
Oh yeah…but WTF was Kyle Shanahan doing with about 1:50 left in the second quarter not calling one of his three timeouts when the Chiefs were going to punt? The clock would run down to 59 seconds by the time the 49ers ran their first play.
Not only was it a waste of a possession, but he told all 100 million people watching the game, and his quarterback, that he didn’t believe in his quarterback, which has it’s own set of issues. Although Jimmy G would go on to throw a beautiful ball to George Kittle on that drive.
The counterpoint to this is that if the Chiefs pinned the ball inside the five-yard line on that punt, with three timeouts of their own, do you then put the Chiefs in position to score? Maybe. But I don’t know if I want to give up a chance at scoring because my opponent might when I have the second best scoring offense in the NFL myself.
If we’re thinking from a Moneyball perspective, as the baseball guys understood that the 27 outs of a baseball game are the most important resource a team has, every possession is like an inning in baseball and Kyle Shanahan gave up an inning.
That, and the fact that two teams he has called the plays for have lost in games where they had a 96.1% chance of winning in the fourth quarter and a 99.7% chance of winning midway through the third, is what Kyle Shanahan will be most known for until he gets his Super Bowl monkey off his back like Andy Reid last night.
Zack Moore is a certified NFL agent, a writer for OverTheCap.com, as well as the author of “Caponomics: Building Super Bowl Champions,” a book that breaks down how Super Bowl champions are built in the NFL’s salary cap era and discusses how NFL front offices can best allocate resources to create successful teams.
You can follow him on Twitter at @ZackMooreNFL.
