Every year crazy stuff is said about the draft, but the discussions currently going on about college players, who are projected to go in the top 5, returning to school because of the possibility of being drafted by a bad organization is the craziest thing and it is amazing to see it gaining steam. The main discussion surrounds Oregon QB Dante Moore needing to avoid the New York Jets because of the Jets terrible history and opt to return to Oregon and “save” his career.
The discussions about these topics are completely uninformed about the reality of NFL contracts and earning potential in the NFL. At best they are rooted in ancient history when contracts were not slotted for rookies and certain positions were not drafted as often making it financially viable for players, specifically QBs and RB’s, to consider going back to school to land with a team that might present a better situation and more importantly roll over and play dead at the negotiating table.
If Moore is selected by the Jets this year he will receive a contract that is worth somewhere in the ballpark of $52 million with $35 million being paid this year. This contract will be fully guaranteed the minute he signs it. The clock immediately begins ticking on a contract extension as soon as he enters the NFL and he would then be extension eligible starting in 2029.
There are a handful of outcomes that we usually see for highly drafted players. The best case is that they are perceived as a good player and they wind up signing a record setting or close to record setting contract. Examples of this type of player are anyone from Tua to Josh Allen.
The second is that they are a below average player and considered a bust, but much of that bust label is attributed to bad situations. Another team thinks they can “fix” the player and they take a shot at that player. This group consists of Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, etc…
The final group are those simply considered a bust with limited upside. More often than not they were given up on by a good team and considered a reach in the draft (think a player like Trey Lance) or they had some fatal flaw that turns other teams off (Johnny Manziel types).
The crux of the argument for avoiding the Jets would be that the Jets organization would prevent a player from being good and put him in one of the other two buckets. While player development on the coaching side is an important aspect of the NFL we are always guilty of overstating the impact they have on great players. Patrick Mahomes was going to be a great QB whether or not Andy Reid was his coach. Allen, who is probably the best case of a NFL “developed” star, has skills that were going to make him great at some point. The coaches who developed him went out and failed in NY as do so many coaches who had the magic touch with a player who was super talented. Trevor Lawrence went to an organization every bit as bad as the Jets and wound up as one of the highest paid players in NFL history. If Moore is that good he will land in this tier regardless of whether or not he is picked by the Jets or some other team.
The second group is the group where players struggle as rookies and then get opportunities. Some develop and some don’t. Sam Darnold after leaving the Jets signed contracts worth $4.5 million, $10 million, and finally $33.5 million. Would Darnold have been good without Minnesota? Probably, but he needed the opportunity to start again and found it there. There was no magic offense. Things started to click. Same goes for Mayfield who signed for $4 million and then $33 million. Last time I checked the head coach who “developed” Mayfield couldn’t get anything out of Darnold as a rookie.
Fields was able to collect without even having to take the small contracts the other two players I mentioned received. He signed for $20 million a year and will end up collecting $30 million from the Jets for one awful year. Zach Wilson draft stock convinced Miami that he was worth $6 million until they saw him and wound up turning to 7th round pick Quinn Ewers instead.
The last group are the ones that struggle but even there they get some opportunities. Lance signed this year for $2 million. Mac Jones is at $3.5 million. That said the opportunities are usually more limited for these players and they can quickly wind up playing for the minimum and then leaving the NFL in a few more seasons. Still its usually clear that coaching didn’t make these players bad as other teams didn’t see much in them after giving them looks in practice.
If Moore was to go back to college he has to do something to protect his draft status to have any of this make sense. I have no idea what NIL money would be on the table for Moore to go back to college. For the sake of argument let’s call it $7 million, which seems high but whatever. To break even initially he would need to fall to no worse than 5th in the NFL Draft. Anything more than that and he will lose money initially.
He still has to contend with going to a bad football team if he is going to be selected that high in 2027. It could be the Jets again. It might be the Browns. Maybe the Cardinals. The point is the vast majority of the time players drafted highly go to bad organizations. If you are good you overcome that. If you aren’t good you simply aren’t good.
The big risk is what happens when you fall? Moore has no real college history outside of this year and this is a weak QB year meaning it is probably the peak of his draft stock. If he has a bad year or gets injured and falls in the draft the dynamic completely changes. The NFL treats the players with a first round grade as if they are gold. The higher the player is picked the more that gold shines and players get those opportunities like Wilson and Darnold.
The more you drop the less shine you have around the NFL. If you drop out of the first round completely all bets are off. You don’t get the same considerations. One of the best examples of this was Matt Barkley who years ago was projected to be the top pick in the draft before he decided to return to college. Things went poorly and he got hurt to boot. He dropped to the 4th round and his career earnings were in the ballpark of $10 million and he never signed a contract worth more than $2 million. Falling in the draft will have far more of a detrimental impact than being coached by Aaron Glenn and company.
The reality is if he is good he is going to overcome whatever the negatives are with a bad team and he will get paid near the top of the market likely in 2029. If he isn’t good he still is going to make a killing as a rookie, then get some opportunities that average around $7 million a season and still have the same chance at making big money as if he was drafted by a good team. At worst he stinks and still collects a few million and bounces around the NFL for a few years.
If he goes back to college and collects his NIL all he really does is push the clock back a year. He is still going to a bad team and if he is good he will overcome it except now we have to wait until 2030 for the payday. All the other scenarios remain the same except we push the clock one year. Why would you take the risk of injury and poor play to return to school and at best come out even?
There is a time and place for a discussion about going back to school. The NIL money is big enough for players who may not be 1st rounders or those who believe they can increase their draft stock, but when you are locked in as a top pick already there is no incentive to return to school. There is no financial upside and it would make no sense to pretend there is one to give someone bad advice.