Why Rex Ryan Should Go Regardless of the Next 7 Games


I often get asked about Rex Ryan and John Idzik and thoughts on the future of both, which I’ve discussed in detail here before. But I wanted to expand some thoughts on Ryan in light of his recent comments which essentially said to judge him on his next 7 games.

If the Jets need these 7 games to make a decision, one way or the other, the organization is lost. Ryan has been the head coach of the Jets since 2009. He has coached 89 games. To think that these 7 games should mean anything is absurd and to turn it into meaning something is ridiculous.

Ryan’s coaching career can basically be broken down into two periods- with Revis and without Revis. By no means do I think that Revis was the catalyst for success and failure its just that Revis’ season ending injury in 2012 coincided with the changing of the Jets roster construction.

Rex took on a talented team with a mix of veteran players and younger talent when he became coach of the Jets in 2009. That team began changing in 2011 but by 2012 it was clear that the roster was turning over. Revis landed on IR, players like Bart Scott were on their last legs, and countless others had been released. Though the team did its best to try to piece things together it was clear that they were at a cross roads between rebuilding or doing things with their contracts to try to return to prominence via free agency.

When Mike Tannenbaum was fired and the Jets avoided free agency in 2013 it was clear that the rebuilding approach would win out. Ryan was selected to lead the rebuilding effort by owner Woody Johnson despite the hiring of Idzik as general manager. To say the last two years have been a disaster is probably the understatement of the year.

Ryan is given a number of excuses for failures of the team over the last three years. The most prominent excuse deals with the quarterback position. Certainly Ryan’s quarterbacks have not been a positive for him or the organization. But we also should not forget that Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow were both first round draft picks while Geno Smith was a second round pick. The head coach has to take some responsibility in the failures of his quarterbacks and offense, which is now on it’s third offensive coordinator.

The QB excuse has more or less never saved a head coach through multiple draft picks. 9 times out of 10 the coach gets the ax along with the QB. They don’t get the benefit of the doubt. The last time I can recall someone getting as much leeway as Ryan with bad quarterback situations was Brian Billick of the Baltimore Ravens. Billick wasted years of a good defense by attempting to develop Kyle Boller before finally getting his veteran QB in Steve McNair. Billick was eventually fired.

Ryan will also get an excuse for the lack of draft picks.   Former GM Mike Tannenbaum was known as “Trader Mike” and he did give a number of picks away. But were those picks high projection picks?  Not really.

We all know that most drafts produce little in the way of true talent the deeper and deeper we get into the draft. While it’s nice to have a shot at those players many don’t even make the roster for more than a handful of games each season. Since 2010 Ryan has had six first round draft picks, four second round draft picks, and four third round draft picks in five seasons. Those are the selections that usually make the most impact and he is not really lacking by any means in that regard. He’s had one additional first rounder and one less in the other two rounds than an average football team.

That’s not terrible and while many of the picks have flopped for a variety of reasons some of that has to get pinned on the coach for the development of talent. He’s gotten very good production out of Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson and very questionable results from pretty much everyone else.

When these are the results you have to question the front office but also the guy who is coaching the players. This is basically years of disappointment across two general managers. There is almost no logical reason to blame the failure solely on the strategy of the GM. I mean if we are blaming Ryan’s failures on a lack of draft picks how can you logically blame his failures on an excessive amount of draft picks in 2013 and 2014?

The are clear red flags with Ryan that have existed for years and these next 7 games will do little to change those things.

One of the marks of a good head coach is the ability to win within the division. Rex himself seem to like to put a great deal of stock in his tough games with the Patriots in recent years, but the fact is he is just 3-8 against them in the regular season. Granted New England is an exceptional football team so it’s hard to expect a great record against them, but he’s also just 4-6 against Miami, which is the worst performance within the division against the Dolphins. Overall Ryan is 14-18 against the AFC East, which is tied with Miami and 3.5 games better than Buffalo over that same stretch. Since 2012 the Jets are tied with Miami for the worst divisional record at just 5-9. That doesn’t cut it.

One of the things that has certainly saved Ryan’s job is the goodwill he bought by winning those road playoff games and cementing the fact that he can win big games against quality opponents. We didn’t apply that logic to Sanchez, who was the quarterback of those games, but it gets applied to Ryan. The problem is in the regular season that ability has not really translated to wins.

The Jets have been a bottom feeder under Ryan, specifically in the post-Revis era. When we look at 6 years worth of data we can get a pretty good idea of who Rex does and does not beat. I wanted to break the Jets opponents up into 4 tiers. An elite team I would define as a team that wins more than 11 games (Super Bowl favorites). A high level team is a team that wins between 9 and 11 games (basically a playoff quality team). Mid tier teams range between 6 and 8 wins while low quality teams are those at 5 wins or less (top drafting teams). Here are Ryan’s results vs those teams season by season:


You won’t find a bad team that Ryan can’t beat but you won’t find many good teams he can beat either. What’s an alarming trend is that Rex’s record against the mid tier teams has fallen from 13-9 to 5-11 since the move to a “rebuilding” phase. Outside of those first two seasons he has really done nothing against better quality teams- he’s 1-11 since 2011 against elite teams and 2-7 against high level teams. That’s Herman Edwardsesque with records heavily reliant on a schedule.


Perhaps more alarming  is the amount of blowout losses that the Jets have experienced under Ryan. In 2009 and 2010, 8 of Ryan’s 12 losses were by a touchdown or less. Only 3 losses in that period were by more at least 14 points and just once were they completely wiped out (the 42 point massacre in 2010 at the hands of the Patriots). When the Jets won they often won handily. It was a very strong effort.

Since 2011 ended the Jets have been a disaster. A majority of their wins are by less than a touchdown. Nearly 58% of the Jets losses have been by at least 14 points.  38% of losses are by more than 20 points. It’s brutal. Here is how the wins and losses broke down in those three year periods:

SeasonsLT 3 WinsLT 8 wins10+ wins14+ wins17+ wins20+ wins30+ wins
SeasonsLT 3 LossLT 8 Loss10+ Loss14+ Loss17+ Loss20+ Loss30+ Loss

These are non-competitive games that the Jets are playing in. That’s an embarrassment. It’s a lack of talent, preparation, and adjustments in a game.   Have you ever heard the coach say anything is wrong after these games?  Not really.  Just that he’ll get things fixed and they are trying hard. If this is trying hard I’d hate to see what not trying is like.

There is no way to spin these numbers as being good. I wanted to compare the performance in losses to that of the Raiders and Jaguars over the same 2.5 year period. Those two teams were essentially considered the bottom of the barrel of the NFL over the post-Revis timeframe. They have both gone through coaching changes and front office changes.

Margin of LossRaidersJaguarsJets

What separates the Jets and these other teams is the fact that the Jets have won some close games in the last few years while the Raider and Jaguars do not. Other than that the Jets are at the same percentage or worse than both teams. On a percentage basis the Jets are less competitive than Oakland. In terms of total number of blowouts they are pretty much worse off than the Raiders once you get beyond the 10 point loss margin. The Jets have 5 losses at home by 20 or more points over the last three years. That’s brutal.

Give Rex all the credit you want for beating some bad teams in 2013 to get to 8 wins, but there is almost nothing to indicate that he’s putting forward these valiant efforts when they lose. They basically roll over and play dead.

It’s been an awful three year stretch for Ryan. If you take out the two playoff runs at the start of his career it would be a no brainer that he would have been run out of town long ago with no defense from anyone. But Ryan has appeal to everyone from the brash attitude and early success and it blinds us all to the fact that he is not going to fit as a head coach of the Jets moving forward.

Whether or not we agree with the path Idzik has chosen or the job he has done, the fact is he has taken the Jets deep down the path or rebuilding. There is no quick fix for this mess through free agency because there is no real talent base that you can build around the way the Jets did when they used their resources in 2008-2010 to build those playoff teams.

I may not trust Idzik to make a draft pick but I also can’t trust Ryan to coach a team of young men learning how to exist in the NFL. If Idzik’s goal was to see how Ryan could do without decent veterans on his team these last two years, well mission accomplished. It’s awful play, bad losses, non-competitive games, and a lot of meaningless football. Its about as bad as things get in the NFL.

The Jets can’t make this about 7 games. Look at the way the team has fallen apart the last few years and realize that Ryan is not the coach who is going to be part of the solution here. Maybe there is a place where he can be part of the solution where the situation resembles the Jets of 2009, but the 2015 Jets won’t look anything like that and will never get back to that level if Ryan is responsible for the development of the team.



  • mike jones

    I think if they keep Idzik it makes sense to keep Rex another year. The dolphins have also gotten themselves into that weird staggered GM/Coach hiring thing and it is a ridiculous way to run a team. You end up with GMs and Coaches that don’t feel like they will ride and die with one another, and I don’t think that is conducive to a well run franchise.

    Last year Philbin felt safe enough to throw Ireland under the bus, I get the feeling Idzik felt that way this year. I get the feeling that once Idzik actually begin to feel the heat that’s when he decided he needed to get a little proactive and we got the percy trade.

    • buk

      Totally agree Mike. There is no good argument to be made to fire Rex and keep Idzik. They both stay at least another year or you completely clean house. To give Idzik power to choose an entire coaching staff, high drafts picks and oversee spending in free agency next offseason would be foolish by the owner. Whichever coach Idzik hired as well as that staff would be under incredible pressure to make the playoffs as a 1st yr coach because he is tied to Idzik. Top coaching candidates may not want to coach for the jets with a GM already under fire.
      As for Rex’s tenure the truth is I never thought any of the Jet teams he coached were incredibly talented. Last year’s team was at best 6 win not 8 win talent. Given no cornerbacks and this year’s schedule at best team has 4 to 5 win talent. Francesca made a good point that this year’s NFL has very few “bad” teams. Jaguars,Buc,Raiders,Titans and the Jets. Could Patriots staff get one or two more wins a season coaching the Jets with Geno instead of Brady maybe. I’m for change, but as a Jet fan(and if I were owner) I don’t fire Rex or Idzik until i’m extremely comfortable with my GM and coaching options.
      I heard same mantra that Sanchez had to go. Good reasons to trade Revis and cut Cromartie. All fine but we winded up replacing those players with far lesser talent and it hurt our coach. Also last I checked Rex and Marty are STILL highly regarded throughout the league as offensive and defensive coordinators. Probably the best offensive and defensive resumes we’ve had coach the Jets since Parcells staff. Sorry to say they were saddled with a turnover machine rookie QB since the day Marty got here. The last 7 games are important to me because I want to see if this talent deficient team can play competent offensive football with an experienced QB who knows Marty’s system. As for the defense the secondary is so bereft of playmakers and compiled of inexperienced rookies anyone can see it has crippled Rex’s defensive philosophy.
      Boomer and Carton stated after Idzik press conference that all they’ve heard is that Idzik was a control freak from Day 1. That explains alot and i’m very surprised Jason described Idzik’s plan as a rebuilding one because he never explained that to Jet fans or his coach and owner. The man is stubborn, naïve and until the heat was turned up recently unaware this was NY. From the moment the Packers paid Shields that enormous contract and teams received that higher salary increase all his models of what to offer free agent corners became obsolete. He didn’t adapt not did he chase the free agent market but his stubborn nature really undermined his coach when he could not fathom the thought of going back to Cromartie even on a 1 year deal. He was naïve about draft picks as well, it was almost like he didn’t want to sign too many free agents so he would have enough roster spots for all 12 draft picks to make the team. You build a team by being able to identify high value players in free agency and the draft then doing what is necessary to go get them and not waiting for them to come to you. In 2 draft years he has not moved up once in the draft to get a player they valued on the board. Lack of urgency to go after best available (even older vets) when serious injuries in your secondary. Browner and Flowers signed very late in free agency are making contributions and don’t tell me Asante Samuel can’t play better at his age then Allen or no names we have now.
      If Woody believed in Rex that much he should have hired a GM that brought in players that fit Rex’s system. We still be 8-8 but at least we’d have an elite defense for the next regime.

      • I have no love for Idzik either and his inability to communicate what he was doing these last two years is ridiculous. Id disagree about Marty being highly regarded anymore though. Im not saying teams think hes bad or the game passed him by, but there are reasons he was available and not headed to Kansas City. I do think there are more bad teams that just those few. Atlanta is terrible. The Giants seem pretty poor. I dont think the Rams and Bears are much either.

        I think the question to ask about Rex is not so much how many more wins would a “good” coaching staff get but how many moral victories can they get. There are weeks the Jets just look like they dont belong on an NFL field which should almost never happen with a good coach. Id also want to see how others may handle disappointing draft picks and finding roles for them.

        Most of the stuff with Idzik we should have seen coming (I think what I wrote the day he was hired has pretty much all come true) but its pretty clear that the self evaluation process is poor. The Jets thought they were something they were not and thats a problem with the front office.

        The bottom line is the Jets never should have fired Tannenbaum and made him the fall guy. Somewhere he is laughing about all of this. The Jets would have been better of firing the OC and DC and making them fall on the sword while Mike simply went out there and admitted he made a mistake trading for Tebow and extending Sanchez and that they need better production. Tannenbaum was the scapegoat which I can understand but it also took the only football guy out of Woodys inner circle. It hurt the organization way more than I think people realize.

        • buk

          When I first found your site I was startled to read an article you wrote highlighting that Tannenbaum did NOT leave the Jets in salary cap hell before he was let go. I recently found myself in total agreement with you that Tannenbaum would NOT let the Jets come into the season like Idzik did. Tannenbaum was the original cap guy who at least demonstrated the ability to hit on some draft picks. I guess it boils down I fear that as many Jet fans called for Tannenbaum or Sanchez’s head if we fire Rex and his entire staff we’ll replace them with less capable people.
          If we want both Idzik and Rex to go I see Woody as being very reluctant to pay off their contracts(and whoever else on staff is under contract) to then spend big money to entice top people throughout the organization. Not the popular opinion but i’d be open to giving both Rex and Idzik another year(if I were the owner) with a few mandates. Unlike Tannebaum Idzik has not tied the Jets up in a single bad contract we can’t get out of. Failing on a 2nd rd QB pick should not by itself get a GM fired in his 2nd year or we might as well have done with Vick what Buffalo did with Orton. Rex and his staff deserve to have draft picks Pryor, McDougle and Milliner on the field together for at least a season with some veteran free agents.
          Again, I just don’t see the can’t miss coach vs giving this regime a 3rd year together. Lovie was fired, he brought Trestman who was an offensive coach who was out of the NFL in and gave him every offensive weapon(unlike Rex). Chicago is not a good or bad team but will not make playoffs for a second year. Atlanta is bad team but they have a legit QB and have ability to knock off any team. That said, Rex has achieved more than their coach Smith or the Bengals coach. Everybody talks about Chip Kelly but when was the last college coach before him to have success? Also I don’t see Woody pursuing a college coach to the extent that the Eagles after Kelly initially turned them down. Eagles have weaons by the way. I also don’t want to hear about Quinn. How is Gus Bradley doing(talk about moral victories) and why would we want another Seattle guy after Idzik when they failed to utilize Harvin. Or how about getting Pete Carroll to replace Rex but oh wait he was another Jet coach we fired. I’m a cynical Jet fan who is weary of blowing everything up and starting completely over again and again.

          • mike jones

            I liked Tannenbaums drafting. He really saw something in Revis that no one else did (or if they saw they didn’t have the fortitude to move on), and if it were not for Revis’s rather unusual aggressiveness in terms of salary (which is hard to divine pre-draft, I’m sure), it would have been the best trade up for a first rounder in league history I think.

        • buk

          Marty and Rex would have no problem finding coordinators jobs because good ones are hard to find. Our former offensive coordinator is doing a mediocre job with the Rams and Sparano is interim coach for Raiders so Marty should be in high demand if those guys are employed. Mangini and Herm are in media or consulting after being former head coaches so again I truly believe the Jets have the best coaching staff since Parcells era for whatever that is worth. Jason maybe Geno was just that bad and Idzik did a really terrible job this offseason. Gripes with Rex and Marty aside, these guys have proven they can coach when we have no idea if Idzik(despite his claims of a track record) or Geno are real GM or NFL caliber QBs.

    • I think the lame duck coach thing is an ownership deal where they dont want to pay for a coach not on the team. We saw it in Chicago, Carolina, Cleveland, and now New York and Miami. Chicago was probably the smartest in the way they handled it, even if their results are not good now. Thats also a “new age” thinking GM which probably prompted the move. He basically made the decision that he has ages of data on Smith and hes never going to run a system that fits in the modern NFL and no matter what he was gone barring a Super Bowl championship. The Jets and Carolina both fell into the trap of keeping their guys because of schedule based fluky years.

      • mike jones

        So, I assume you think the jets keep Idzik around another year.

        If that’s the case, and if we assume that no matter who the Jets get as Coach next year they will perform in the bottom third or fourth of the league, then doesn’t Idzik get canned prior to the 2016 season?

        And then don’t we then run into this same issue of the yet another GM that had no input on hiring his coach in 2016, and thus not the same impetus to get the jets winning immediately like the coach will need to?

        I think it really can cause problems when the GM and the coach don’t have timelines for competitiveness that are in sync. You can get weird strategic and tactical moves where a coach is trying to win now, not develop, while a GM is in develope mode, and vis versa.

        • Im not sure. Idziks opportunity to fire Rex should have been last year. If I was the owner Id think like you do and fire both and begin over or keep both. If the team stinks again in 2015 with the same GM and new coach there is no way he can keep the GM and likely cant keep the coach either. Its just a mess that gets the team worse and worse. All I know is the decision to hire Idzik and keep Rex destroyed the team. Maybe if he hired Idzik and fired Rex or kept Rex and Tannenbaum things would be different, but this mix was just awful for the franchise.

      • Dan Kunze

        You are correct here, 100%. There was no way the Bears owners were going to eat two years of Lovie’s contract – one sure, but not two. This is the exact same thing that will happen with Trestman. Also, the Bears missed the playoffs five out of the last six years under Lovie, which made it really easy to can him without too many arguments from anyone.

  • Dan Kunze

    “9 times out of 10 the coach gets the ax along with the QB. They don’t get the benefit of the doubt.” I would say that it is more like 19 times out of 20. However, I would have a hard time firing the Rams coach for the Sam Bradford deal – who knew that would be such a monumental bust?

    The term I have been using at my (crap) blog is “tethering”. My team is Chicago – Bears coach Marc Trestman is “tethered” to Jay Cutler and I might even toss Phil Emery in to that mix. If they don’t pull a rabbit out of the hat this year, and/or come up with a meaningful season next year, at the least, Trestman and Cutler are done in Chicago.

    • The Cutler contract was probably the most surprising contract to come out since the Sanchez extension in 2012 and Fitzpatrick extension in 2011. I know its easy to fall in love with Cutlers arm, but the numbers have never jumped off the page outside of mybe his 2nd or 3rd year in the NFL which was a lifetime ago. The way things are going I would not be surprised if they try to trade him and then have the GM spin it as the flexibility they created in the contract to allow for a trade. Chicago and Atlanta are probably two of the most dissapointing and overpaid teams of the season.

      • Dan Kunze

        The injury bug has killed the Bears this year. Mel Tucker, the d coordinator, will have to fall on the sword, regardless. The Cutler contract was overpriced, but Cutler was the right guy at the right time for Trestman’s offensive system so the few extra million didn’t bother me as much as it normally would have. I wouldn’t be surprised at a trade either. If the season really goes south (as I expect it will) it is going to be very interesting times in Chicago. Trestman has two more years – I doubt that they will eat both years (see Lovie) but next year will be Trestman’s “prove it” year.

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  • ThatNewYorkJetsBlog

    The problem with cleaning house (firing Idzik and Rex) is that top quality GM and HC candidates will not want to work for the Jets.

    Top GM candidates will prefer entering better situations, like in Atlanta or DC. They want to transform an underperforming team a championship team- not try to turn a loser into a championship team. So Johnson will settle for another top-tier salary cap manager like John Idzik, who will be equally as unprepared as Idzik was when he took the job, rather than a third tier scouting background candidate.

    At this point, you’ve made a lateral move at GM and tossed out the only above-average HC who’d want to work for you. Rex is probably a bad fit for the current Jets. But they won’t be able to attract someone who *does* look like a good fit for the current team.

    Top HC candidates will see that the Jets have no QB, very little talent overall, another non-traditional (and likely clueless) GM, the Patriots in the division, the Bills on the rise, and no history of winning in the last 40 years. This means you’ll also get a low-tier HC candidate who will take the job because it’s his only chance at ever becoming a HC.

    In 2009, it was a different situation because the Jets had been a decent but underperforming team. That’s why they got Rex. Now that they’ve reverted to their normal bottom-feeder status, top tier prospects will turn them down. They will have to basically hope that they can hit a grand slam with the GM and HC equivalent of 6th round draft picks.

    If you fire just Idzik, no good GM candidates will be interested in inheriting Rex. If you fire just Rex, you’re screwed because Idzik won’t hire someone as good as Rex. If you fire them both, you’re screwed because good candidates won’t want either job given how dysfunctional and bad the Jets are.

    I think the Jets are pretty screwed no matter what they do. They’re going to have to rely on unexpected/undeserved miracles in the draft and in getting an under-qualified GM and HC who end up being excellent anyway (like John Madden, who went from o-line coach directly to HC and was immediately excellent.) If the Jets finish the season in a strong way, I could imagine them keeping Rex and Idzik for one more year, simply because all of the options are bad and firing Rex in that situation could spark a fan boycott.

    • I dont know if the Jets would attract a good candidate anyway. When we look at Woody’s history its not like he went after big name guys. Herm was about as unqualified as anyone and got the job. This was Manginis first job and I think the runner up was Mike Tice. Rex wasnt some hot sought after coordinator either. Everyone agreed he was a good DC but wasnt hired by the Ravens and was unsuccessful at finding a job elsewhere. Woody goes for cheap and unproven anyway.

      I believe part of the problem he had with the last GM search (besides Rex, though its not like guys dont take the job with a lame duck coach) is that he spoke a different language than most and then would cheap out on the contract. He grew up with Tannebuam as his football guy and Idzik philosophically is very close. It’s different than guys that came in and said the team was in cap hell and would take years to get out of and rebiuild.

      • buk

        I think it comes down to Woody and his desire for a franchise QB he could market. This guy flew a jet out to get Favre to sign here and spoke so highly of Sanchez after Jets moved up multiple draft picks for get him. If it comes from the owner that the organization is going to go after the next franchise then why fire Idzik or Rex since they have their marching orders. Woody can say the 2nd rd Geno experiment is over as he wasn’t exciting fans nor winning games and it to commit a high first rd draft pick in order to find a franchise QB.
        Looking at our likely record the Jets will be able to draft or move up to draft the Oregon QB who has talent and media market potential as Sanchez did coming out. If that message comes from the owner then both GM and coach are on the same page. Draft a QB in 1st rd and spend whatever you have to put as many good players around him while you develop that talent. If Rex gets a say he could argue he took Sanchez a former 1st rounder to two championship games his first two years. Geno who has 24 games experience along with Sims can backup that QB and you move on from Vick and Chris Johnson. Spend wisely on as many talented players who can play every down for as many snaps as possible to win games(unlike Vick or Johnson who we have 8 mil tied up in this year). We go nowhere as Jet fans until we draft a franchise QB, not really that complicated if that is what owner wants to try. If we can add some free agent talent to our secondary with Rex as coach we could have a top 5 defense to keep games close for a young QB.

    • mike jones

      I think there’s something to be said for getting a young guy who doesn’t have much bonafides rather than a retread big name the media might like (gruden, holmgren, cowher). No one gets great GMs because they just don’t leave the teams they are managing while they are great. No gets Balkie, or Newsome, or Colbert, because they don’t leave and they were no names before they were well thought of.

  • ToreBear

    I find it hard to believe the GM would select anyone without input from the coaches. If the coaches have no input in draft picks, then the GM should be fired. The coaches are responsible for realizing a players potential, hence they need to be involved in the scouting and draft process.

    Whether there is a failure in identification of talent or the development of it is something that those inside the organization should have an idea about.

    I suspect Rex is the weak link here. Also I don’t think Geno is as bad as everyone says. It’s too easy to blame the QB when things don’t work out. In Geno’s case I think the lack of supporting cast is the problem, as well as the pressure to win despite a lack of talent on offense. In such a situation he is asked to play beyond his current capabilities, and that can result in some nasty losses.

    I would fire Rex and let Idzik bring in a new guy. If no progress is made within a 5 year timespan, I would fire both.

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  • Kirk Vollmer

    Honestly I think Rex is overrated as a coach and should have been fired a long time ago in 2012. At that time it was clear that the team was going downhill and that many of the decisions by the current regime had been bad. Somehow he managed to convince them to keep him around and take Geno. He has now 2 failed QB’s on his resume with the 2nd QB being even worse then the first.

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