Revisiting the 2015 NFL Draft

I thought for the draft this year I would do a series looking back at each draft from 2012 through 2017 and seeing what information we can get by breaking each draft down based mainly on career earnings We started with 2012 and are now up to 2015. For each draft we will break things down by position and the round in which the players were drafted. The 2023 salary data is included in all analysis.

Career Length

For a players career length we are looking at how many times the player finished an NFL season on a roster, practice squad included. Here is the breakdown by round.

Draft RoundYears in NFLYears with 1 team
Top 108.04.4
17.84.8
26.74.3
36.03.6
45.52.9
55.23.0
63.91.7
74.11.8

This was a good year in terms of longevity on the top but did not feature these players lasting with their draft team, with the average for 1st round picks actually lower than the five year rookie contract length and close to the performance of round 2. This draft produced in the mid rounds before tailing off in the final two rounds. There are currently 9 players who will be entering their 9th season with the team that drafted them. Four of those players were drafted in the 1st round but none from the top 10.

Performance by Original Draft Round

We re-ranked every player based on how much they earned over their initial four year rookie contract. Here was the breakdown for the 2015 draft based on the initial draft position, the average result, and what percentage finished in the top 100.

RoundAvg Redraft RankTop 10Top 32Top 64Top 100
Top 1035.430.0%50.0%90.0%90.0%
154.613.6%45.5%63.6%90.9%
287.80.0%21.9%50.0%68.8%
3119.22.9%5.7%22.9%42.9%
4125.52.7%8.1%18.9%35.1%
5139.44.9%4.9%17.1%26.8%
6176.50.0%4.9%4.9%7.3%
7173.80.0%2.6%2.6%17.9%

This is another good draft for the top picks with about 50% of those taken in the first round ranking in the top 32 of earners. Round 2 did not produce the top talent but still had 22% land in the top 32. We had some players from the middle rounds finish top 10 but these rounds were more hit of miss than those top rounds. Round 7 did produce some top 100 players this season.

If we just look at overperforming or underperforming their initial round of selection we get the following hit rates.

RoundOverperformedUnderperformedHit Target
Top 1070.0%30.0%
113.6%54.5%31.8%
221.9%50.0%28.1%
322.9%57.1%20.0%
435.1%40.5%24.3%
546.3%34.1%19.5%
641.5%31.7%26.8%
764.1%35.9%

The hit rates continue to be right around 50/50 for players selected in the top 3 rounds which is solid but certainly does not represent the sure thing that many of those picks are pegged as being.  

Performance by Position

Here is the breakdown for each position and where they ranked in earnings over rookie contract.

PositionDraftedTop 10Top 32Top 64Top 100
LT1010.0%30.0%30.0%40.0%
EDGE2711.1%29.6%37.0%37.0%
OG195.3%21.1%31.6%52.6%
C60.0%16.7%50.0%66.7%
QB70.0%14.3%28.6%42.9%
WR326.3%12.5%18.8%31.3%
S170.0%11.8%17.6%23.5%
CB303.3%10.0%23.3%36.7%
IDL219.5%9.5%28.6%57.1%
RT140.0%7.1%21.4%42.9%
LB290.0%6.9%24.1%31.0%
TE200.0%5.0%25.0%35.0%
RB190.0%0.0%15.8%42.1%
P10.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Offensive linemen continue to be safe bets in the draft with left tackle and guard both having over 20% of the picks finish in the top 32 and center being over 15%. This was a year where the edge rushers seemed to stand out more as a class. The non premium positions continued to have a difficult time moving up.

What if we just limit this to the hit rates of players taken in the top 100 ?

PositionDraftedTop 10Top 32Top 64Top 100
OG616.7%50.0%66.7%100.0%
LT425.0%50.0%50.0%75.0%
EDGE1414.3%42.9%57.1%57.1%
S30.0%33.3%33.3%66.7%
QB40.0%25.0%50.0%50.0%
C40.0%25.0%75.0%75.0%
WR137.7%23.1%30.8%61.5%
CB156.7%20.0%40.0%60.0%
LB100.0%20.0%60.0%60.0%
RT50.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
IDL911.1%11.1%55.6%88.9%
RB90.0%0.0%33.3%77.8%
TE40.0%0.0%25.0%50.0%

The positional group that the scouts seemed to do well with were the edge rushers. While the overall rate of players top 100 was only 57%, 43% did finish top 32 so a great boom/bust type group. Left tackles and guards, which were a smaller group, all finished very highly. Corner, wide receiver, and linebacker all had mid level returns. Tight end this year was a dud.

Who Had the Best and Worst Drafts

This draft was the one that helped set the Vikings up for a few years of good football. They wound up with two of the top 10 earners in Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter. Eric Kendricks was also in this draft. The 49ers were second though that number is a bit inflated by a ridiculous contract that the Raiders gave Trent Brown in free agency as he had limited contributions to the 49ers.

On the sad scale we had the Broncos and Packers. The Broncos top pick was Shane Ray while the Packers top pick was Damarious Randall, Neither team produced over $30 million in excess earnings..

TeamPicksNet Earnings
Vikings10$268,921,456
49ers10$172,777,364
Seahawks8$170,804,373
Commanders10$167,594,784
Buccaneers7$163,581,101
Ravens9$163,568,967
Chiefs9$162,813,378
Cardinals7$131,216,942
Patriots11$130,712,755
Cowboys8$126,804,636
Falcons7$119,433,500
Raiders10$109,869,956
Lions7$101,553,275
Panthers5$97,249,843
Rams10$95,795,199
Dolphins7$92,692,114
Eagles6$86,599,117
Jets6$85,983,461
Giants6$81,425,176
Steelers8$66,223,066
Jaguars8$64,512,364
Bears6$64,276,738
Saints9$60,400,051
Bengals9$50,533,710
Chargers5$45,986,599
Bills6$42,436,124
Titans9$40,310,061
Colts8$34,447,034
Browns12$31,585,469
Texans7$30,064,302
Packers8$24,524,953
Broncos9$20,903,062

The Final Draft Rankings

When re-assessing the draft here is where the average pick came from in each final draft tier.

RoundAvg. Draft Slot
Top 1057.6
163.8
272.7
3114.3
4131.4
5148.2
6157.6
7188.9

Our new top 10 consists of three edge rushers, two wide receivers, two interior defensive linemen, one left tackle, one cornerback, and one guard. Three top 10 picks finished in the top 10. They were Amari Cooper, Leonard Williams, and Brandon Scherff. The first rounders in the top 10 were Arik Armstead, Byron Jones, and DJ Humphries.  The biggest riser was Trent Brown (231 slot jump)

Here are the top 100 players ranked by career earnings over their rookie contract.

RankNamePositionEarningsOriginal Draft SlotChange in Draft SlotYears PlayedYears With Draft Team
1Stefon DiggsWR$103,152,88214614595
2Amari CooperWR$93,924,0004293
3Leonard WilliamsIDL$90,533,0006394
4Grady JarrettIDL$87,172,58813713399
5Brandon ScherffOG$78,591,0005097
6Danielle HunterEDGE$76,421,500888299
7Arik ArmsteadEDGE$75,433,059171099
8Byron JonesCB$74,741,000271995
9Za’Darius SmithEDGE$74,733,25012211394
10D.J. HumphriesLT$74,323,529241499
11Tyler LockettWR$72,485,000695899
12Frank ClarkEDGE$71,336,111635184
13Trent BrownLT$63,510,82424423193
14Preston SmithEDGE$61,350,000382494
15Trey FlowersEDGE$59,292,5881018684
16Donovan SmithLT$57,838,235341888
17Shaq ThompsonLB$57,232,00025899
18Mitch MorseC$54,560,000493194
19Bud DupreeEDGE$51,004,47122386
20Marcus PetersCB$50,992,16118-283
21Andrus PeatOG$48,975,00013-899
22Quandre DiggsS$48,958,25020017894
23Eric KendricksLB$47,234,375452298
24Jameis WinstonQB$46,847,5881-2395
25Shaquille MasonOG$46,139,50013110697
26Landon CollinsS$45,321,53333785
27Rob HavensteinRT$44,426,471573099
28Laken TomlinsonOG$44,264,70528092
29DeVante ParkerWR$41,468,75014-1597
30Darren WallerTE$40,039,14520417493
31Dante Fowler Jr.EDGE$40,000,0003-2893
32Trae WaynesCB$39,927,82411-2175
33Marcus MariotaQB$38,872,0002-3195
34Todd GurleyRB$37,680,02210-2465
35Jordan HicksLB$37,122,941844994
36Adrian AmosS$36,702,00014210684
37David JohnsonRB$35,619,737864985
38Nelson AgholorWR$35,508,02920-1895
39C.J. UzomahTE$34,300,00015711897
40Ali MarpetC$33,500,000612177
41Mark GlowinskiOG$31,788,7501349392
42Steven NelsonCB$31,596,765985694
43Kwon AlexanderLB$29,998,9531248184
44Randy GregoryEDGE$29,456,846601686
45Jordan PhillipsIDL$29,382,35352783
46Ronald DarbyCB$29,022,05950482
47Jamison CrowderWR$27,954,5001055894
48Eddie GoldmanIDL$25,604,59339-987
49Ereck FlowersRT$23,747,6479-4073
50Henry AndersonIDL$23,746,412934393
51Vic BeasleyLB$23,458,3968-4365
52Nick BoyleTE$23,338,82317111988
53Benardrick McKinneyLB$23,212,75043-1076
54Melvin GordonRB$23,132,34115-3985
55A.J. CannOG$22,204,610671287
56Bobby McCainCB$21,857,0001458996
57Daryl WilliamsRT$20,302,0001024575
58Eric RoweCB$18,647,05947-1181
59Cameron ErvingC$17,872,96819-4082
60Denzel PerrymanLB$16,987,94148-1296
61Markus GoldenEDGE$16,252,79458-387
62Jesse JamesTE$15,319,7781609884
63Tyler KroftTE$15,140,750852284
64Malcom BrownIDL$14,900,00032-3274
65John MillerOG$14,673,806811674
66Bobby HartRT$14,625,77822616083
67Jamon BrownOG$14,263,27972553
68Breshad PerrimanWR$13,793,01226-4283
69Jon FelicianoOG$13,400,0001285984
70Bradley PinionP$13,100,0001659594
71Rakeem Nunez-RochesIDL$13,075,26921714693
72Duke JohnsonRB$12,567,33377584
73Damien WilsonLB$12,425,0001275484
74Angelo BlacksonIDL$11,594,3381002682
75Damarious RandallCB$11,483,38330-4563
76Devin FunchessWR$10,919,66741-3564
77Mike DavisRB$10,572,6761264972
78Mario Edwards Jr.IDL$10,461,29735-4383
79Tevin ColemanRB$10,432,92873-684
80Chris ConleyWR$10,069,18276-484
81Maxx WilliamsTE$9,539,34455-2684
82Geoff SwaimTE$9,387,11824616484
83Jaquiski TarttS$8,880,63546-3766
84P.J. WilliamsCB$8,878,00078-688
85Tyeler DavisonIDL$8,852,2781546984
86David MayoLB$8,706,1761698394
87Ty SambrailoLT$8,436,39759-2862
88Denzelle GoodRT$8,214,11825516784
89Darryl RobertsCB$7,766,75024715871
90Danny SheltonIDL$7,723,02212-7893
91Kevin JohnsonCB$7,312,50016-7564
92Joe CardonaLS$6,916,8821667499
93Max GarciaOG$6,747,0001334084
94Phillip DorsettWR$6,559,57529-6592
95Trevor SiemianQB$6,419,89725015583
96Austin ReiterC$6,386,54222212681
97Ty MontgomeryRB$6,336,23594-393
98Ameer AbdullahRB$6,131,25054-4493
99Rodney GunterIDL$5,971,8751161755
100Cedric OgbuehiRT$5,537,97121-7974