I thought for the draft this year I would do a series looking back at each draft from 2012 through 2017 and seeing what information we can get by breaking each draft down based mainly on career earnings We started with 2012 and are now up to 2015. For each draft we will break things down by position and the round in which the players were drafted. The 2023 salary data is included in all analysis.

Career Length

For a players career length we are looking at how many times the player finished an NFL season on a roster, practice squad included. Here is the breakdown by round.

This was a good year in terms of longevity on the top but did not feature these players lasting with their draft team, with the average for 1^st round picks actually lower than the five year rookie contract length and close to the performance of round 2. This draft produced in the mid rounds before tailing off in the final two rounds. There are currently 9 players who will be entering their 9^th season with the team that drafted them. Four of those players were drafted in the 1^st round but none from the top 10.

Performance by Original Draft Round

We re-ranked every player based on how much they earned over their initial four year rookie contract. Here was the breakdown for the 2015 draft based on the initial draft position, the average result, and what percentage finished in the top 100.

This is another good draft for the top picks with about 50% of those taken in the first round ranking in the top 32 of earners. Round 2 did not produce the top talent but still had 22% land in the top 32. We had some players from the middle rounds finish top 10 but these rounds were more hit of miss than those top rounds. Round 7 did produce some top 100 players this season.

If we just look at overperforming or underperforming their initial round of selection we get the following hit rates.

The hit rates continue to be right around 50/50 for players selected in the top 3 rounds which is solid but certainly does not represent the sure thing that many of those picks are pegged as being.  

Performance by Position

Here is the breakdown for each position and where they ranked in earnings over rookie contract.

Offensive linemen continue to be safe bets in the draft with left tackle and guard both having over 20% of the picks finish in the top 32 and center being over 15%. This was a year where the edge rushers seemed to stand out more as a class. The non premium positions continued to have a difficult time moving up.

What if we just limit this to the hit rates of players taken in the top 100 ?

The positional group that the scouts seemed to do well with were the edge rushers. While the overall rate of players top 100 was only 57%, 43% did finish top 32 so a great boom/bust type group. Left tackles and guards, which were a smaller group, all finished very highly. Corner, wide receiver, and linebacker all had mid level returns. Tight end this year was a dud.

Who Had the Best and Worst Drafts

This draft was the one that helped set the Vikings up for a few years of good football. They wound up with two of the top 10 earners in Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter. Eric Kendricks was also in this draft. The 49ers were second though that number is a bit inflated by a ridiculous contract that the Raiders gave Trent Brown in free agency as he had limited contributions to the 49ers.

On the sad scale we had the Broncos and Packers. The Broncos top pick was Shane Ray while the Packers top pick was Damarious Randall, Neither team produced over $30 million in excess earnings..

The Final Draft Rankings

When re-assessing the draft here is where the average pick came from in each final draft tier.

Our new top 10 consists of three edge rushers, two wide receivers, two interior defensive linemen, one left tackle, one cornerback, and one guard. Three top 10 picks finished in the top 10. They were Amari Cooper, Leonard Williams, and Brandon Scherff. The first rounders in the top 10 were Arik Armstead, Byron Jones, and DJ Humphries.  The biggest riser was Trent Brown (231 slot jump)

Here are the top 100 players ranked by career earnings over their rookie contract.