A question I have been receiving lately deals with potential NFL cuts this year given the pandemic. This year is unique given the expected cap downturn and potential slashing of budgets by owners and I was thinking that maybe the NFL will be looking closer at certain positional groups rather than players.  We often talk of players being replaceable but usually we just talk in generalities of production without taking into account availability. So what I wanted to do here was look at what positions are usually available for cheap every year and contribute in the year they are signed.

To get a gauge of availability I went back and broke the players up into two player pools. One is the pool of available free agents. This includes undrafteds and street free agents along with the typical veterans. To qualify for inclusion the player had to have an annual average contract value of under $2 million. I chose that number because I think that rightfully fits the “cheap” category that would be of use to teams in the league this year. The player also has to have signed by August to eliminate in season signings. The second pool is draft picks. There is no cap on that salary as it is a pick every team in the NFL has to make whether its for an expensive 1^st round player or a cheap 7^th rounder.

I then identified how many offensive or defensive snaps each player played in the year they signed their contract. In other words if a player signed a two year contract in 2017, I don’t care what he did in 2018. I only care about what he did in 2017. The same goes for a draft pick. I need an immediate return if I am cutting a veteran player. I broke the snaps into two categories. One uses a low end filter of 200 snaps which identifies more of a depth signing. The second filters that further to 500 snaps which for many positions is a strong contributor number.

First let’s look at the veteran player pool from last year (minus this years cuts like Golden Tate) for players who earn more than $2 million a season.

$2M+ a Year Veteran Player Pool

Position	Under 200 Snaps	Under 200 Salary	Between 200 and 500 Snaps	Between 200 and 500 Salary	Over 500 Snaps	Over 500 Salary
Edge	4	$13,195,208	11	$9,735,000	34	$12,845,681
Int. D-Line	10	$6,863,500	15	$6,001,667	32	$10,445,604
Safety	3	$3,641,667	4	$7,000,000	32	$7,872,760
Cornerback	3	$8,721,667	10	$5,519,083	30	$10,195,333
Guard	4	$6,550,000	4	$2,562,500	29	$8,114,977
Wide Receiver	6	$3,406,945	11	$10,474,773	29	$12,936,557
Linebacker	7	$7,857,143	6	$4,366,667	28	$8,847,589
Center	4	$5,550,000	0	$0	20	$7,933,988
Left Tackle	3	$9,983,333	3	$16,333,333	17	$13,080,149
Quarterback	8	$7,671,875	4	$18,102,250	17	$27,970,882
Right Tackle	4	$8,562,500	8	$9,819,375	14	$6,671,036
Tight End	3	$3,988,889	12	$4,486,806	12	$7,911,833
Running Back	5	$6,413,171	4	$5,587,500	11	$9,475,727
Fullback	1	$3,250,000	1	$5,250,000	0	$0

My opinion is any player in the first two groups of players is potentially expendable unless his status was due to an injury that caused the player to miss most of the year. Those over 500 snaps moves more into the production side of the equation where we have to ask ourselves are these players on the field because they are good or because of their contract?  If it is the latter they may be considered a cut candidate.

Here is our first cheap player pool, identifying players who played between 200 and 500 snaps in their year of signing/drafting.

200- 500 Snap Player Pool

Position	Free Agents	Draft Picks	Total Players	Players/Year	Total Snaps	Snaps/Player
Int. D-Line	53	33	86	21.5	28,553	332.0
Wide Receiver	41	36	77	19.25	25,019	324.9
Edge	37	35	72	18	24,796	344.4
Cornerback	40	28	68	17	23,338	343.2
Running Back	28	27	55	13.75	17,958	326.5
Linebacker	29	24	53	13.25	17,024	321.2
Safety	31	17	48	12	15,158	315.8
Tight End	32	15	47	11.75	14,704	312.9
Guard	27	12	39	9.75	13,353	342.4
Quarterback	11	5	16	4	5,085	317.8
Left Tackle	7	8	15	3.75	4,542	302.8
Center	12	2	14	3.5	3,957	282.6
Right Tackle	11	3	14	3.5	4,669	333.5
Fullback	8	0	8	2	1,923	240.4

In my mind this is a pretty vibrant market for potential contributors. In particular I think both interior defensive linemen and wide receivers who are more expensive part time players should a bit worried about being asked into a pay cut or just released outright. Lower end edge rushers likely fit there as well. In general there are more than enough players who should be available that can replace every veteran who costs more than $2 million a year and played less than 500 snaps last year. Even if just using free agency the only positions of concern to replace on the cheap would be tackles, quarterbacks, and possible centers.

Now lets look more at the high end snaps.

500+ Snap Player Pool

Position	Free Agents	Draft Picks	Total Players	Players/Year	Total Snaps	Snaps/Player
Cornerback	25	34	59	14.8	44,084	747.2
Guard	25	21	46	11.5	37,381	812.6
Wide Receiver	11	35	46	11.5	30,967	673.2
Linebacker	23	22	45	11.3	35,070	779.3
Safety	15	29	44	11.0	34,460	783.2
Int. D-Line	17	13	30	7.5	17,496	583.2
Edge	10	18	28	7.0	17,788	635.3
Tight End	6	14	20	5.0	11,928	596.4
Left Tackle	7	11	18	4.5	13,703	761.3
Quarterback	3	13	16	4.0	12,972	810.8
Center	8	7	15	3.8	12,507	833.8
Right Tackle	4	10	14	3.5	13,033	930.9
Running Back	2	9	11	2.8	6,971	633.7

Those first five positions are really interesting to me. Corner, guard, and linebacker are clear positions that have potential replacements for cheap in free agency while safety and wide receiver are a bit more draft dependent. Right now we are hearing about teams trying to bail on some expensive guards and I think this table says why as teams can find production on the cheap at these positions with 6 guards a year available for under $2 million who will wind up with at least 500 snaps on the year.

As you get deeper into the other positions it certainly becomes much more risky to dump expensive talent who contributes solely for cap purposes. The players are out there to help but the numbers are fewer which makes hitting on those players much more difficult.  So really I think it is those five positions where you may see more veteran player cuts/pay cuts.

One thing that teams that do look to go cheap should consider is signing multiple veterans if they can. When we are talking about contracts in the sub $2 million a year range they often come with almost no guarantee. The player pool that we looked at for veteran players has an average contract value of $1.5 million with about $360,000 in guarantees. So you can sign two or three players and likely have the total cost come out to around $2.1 million even if you had to cut two of them and pay their guarantee but avoid their salary. That is well worth it if you are cutting a player who will cost you $5+  million.

While this is going to be a big topic of discussion in the next week or two as teams gear up for free agency the reality is teams should be looking at things like this as ways to kind of game the salary cap. We talk of taking multiple stabs at it in the draft but there are ways to do that in free agency as well. It requires a sales job in free agency (players do want a chance to play and when you try to sign three cheap linebackers it may make linebacker 3 think twice before signing), but there are many avenues to finding production at much more affordable costs and maybe teams being forced to look at that this year will lead to some changes in the future.