With a few weeks of snap counts in the books for the 2019 regular season, let’s take a look at where the 2020 compensatory picks projection stands. First, let’s start with identifying some changes from last May that I feel will be permanent. The Cardinals cut Kevin White, which was bad for the Bears, as […]

When May 7th passed, the second Tuesday after the 2019 NFL Draft, it also closed out the addition of compensatory free agents (CFAs) into the formula for the 2020 NFL Draft. After waiting to gain knowledge of relevant contracts, we can now take a look at the 2020 compensatory picks list, with only CFA subtractions […]

Shawn Williams signed a four-year extension with the Bengals reportedly worth a stated value of $20,870,000, of which $20.185 million is considered “new money” and $4 million is guaranteed at the time of signing. The Expected Contract Value of the deal is $16,082,691 (77% of the stated value):

The chart below compares the Expected Contract Value with the stated contract value for each contract of $10 million or more signed during the 2016 offseason. Expected Contract Value 1.1 is applied at the time of signing. Expected Contract Value 1.1 takes into account the nature and timing of contract amounts, the resulting relationship between […]

Each offseason a number of the multi-year contracts signed by free agents the previous offseason are terminated. These contracts may be terminated for a variety of reasons: disappointing performance, injury, team salary cap situation, etc. These factors are, for the most part, unpredictable. However, we can use Expected Contract Value to identify contracts that are […]

Most of my efforts regarding the NFL’s compensatory pick system have been explanatory, but occasionally I’ll offer some opinions as to how teams can manage the system. Last year I suggested that the Detroit Lions should keep their CFA lost/gained ratio positive to obtain a 3rd round pick for Ndamukong Suh, and that’s a goal […]