The OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 8

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With Monday night now in the books we have our official power rankings up to date. In case you have not read these before the rankings are based on a formula that measures how well (or poor) a team has performed against their specific schedule. So to read the chart for Denver you would say that the team scores 53.3% more points than their schedule allowed against all other teams and held their schedule to 18.3% below their normal points scored. The projected wins is based on a regression formula so that’s why in some cases teams are already above or below their projections. The projections will change over the course of the year.

Despite the loss in St. Louis, the Seahawks still remain one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. They have played an incredibly difficult schedule  and while they are trending downward there is clearly enough there to win the division. Their defense is clearly not what it was last season which should have been expected. The variance year to year in that category is very high ad they were one of the best Super Bowl champions in that regard. The fact that they were an excellent defensive team two years in a row is surprising and to sustain that for three years would be really hard to do. What they need to do is stabilize themselves and prevent the falling off a cliff that we are seeing in Cincinnati, who has now plummeted to 15th in the rankings.

The AFC West is looking like the most elite division in the NFL. Currently they are fielding three top 10 teams in the rankings. The divisions with two are the NFC East and the NFC West. The most up for grabs division with decent play looks to be the AFC East with the Dolphins, Patriots, and Bills all sandwiched in the mid teens. The NFC South is on track to be the worst division of all time with rankings of 22, 23, 27, and 32.

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NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 7

Rank Change Team Scoring Efficiency Defensive Efficiency Total Efficiency Projected Wins
1 Broncos 53.3% 18.3% 71.7% 14.8
2 Colts 51.6% 19.7% 71.3% 14.7
3 +1 Ravens 9.5% 41.4% 50.9% 12.9
4 -1 Seahawks 23.6% 11.9% 35.5% 11.3
5 Chargers 14.4% 20.7% 35.1% 11.3
6 +2 Chiefs 11.4% 20.7% 32.2% 11.1
7 +3 Eagles 27.5% 1.4% 28.9% 10.7
8 +4 Packers 26.9% 1.8% 28.7% 10.7
9 Cowboys 15.9% 7.4% 23.3% 10.2
10 -4 Cardinals 3.0% 16.6% 19.7% 9.9
11 +2 Lions -19.8% 34.4% 14.5% 9.4
12 -1 49ers 0.7% 10.2% 10.9% 9.0
13 +6 Dolphins 11.7% -1.0% 10.6% 9.0
14 Patriots 18.5% -13.4% 5.0% 8.4
15 -8 Bengals -2.7% 7.3% 4.6% 8.4
16 Bills -7.7% 12.3% 4.5% 8.4
17 Texans -3.6% 7.3% 3.7% 8.4
18 Giants -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 8.0
19 -4 Browns 0.1% -9.1% -9.0% 7.1
20 +3 Steelers -11.4% -6.3% -17.7% 6.3
21 -1 Bears -9.3% -9.1% -18.4% 6.2
22 Saints 9.9% -29.5% -19.6% 6.1
23 -1 Panthers 3.2% -23.5% -20.4% 6.0
24 -1 Vikings -29.2% 4.4% -24.8% 5.7
25 +3 Jets -18.6% -9.8% -28.3% 5.3
26 +1 Redskins -8.9% -22.3% -31.1% 5.0
27 -3 Falcons 1.1% -32.9% -31.8% 4.9
28 -2 Titans -28.0% -5.1% -33.1% 4.9
29 +1 Rams -13.5% -27.4% -40.8% 4.1
30 -1 Raiders -32.1% -15.4% -47.5% 3.5
31 Jaguars -35.7% -13.9% -49.6% 3.3
32 -1 Buccaneers -22.8% -52.9% -75.7% 0.8

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