The OTC NFL Power Rankings: Week 11

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I’m sure the big question that will be asked with these rankings is why are the Cardinals and Lions ranked so low?  The teams have combined for 15 wins yet you only project them to finish with about 20 wins total on the year. It’s a fair question.

My rankings are based on a formula that determines how efficient at a team is at scoring points and preventing points against their specific schedule. In the case of both teams they are very efficient in one area (preventing points) and not great in another (scoring them).

Arizona’s offense ranks with a 3% score. That basically means that on average they will play up or down to their level of opposition. Their number here is actually boosted by those defensive scores last week. The Lions have been far worse having faced the 4th easiest defensive schedule and scoring about 18% below the average output.

Normally such teams would be around 5 wins when playing at that level.  But both have been able to pull out wins that would normally even out by some close losses. That happens every year and almost every year there is one outlier that stands out. Last year that team was the Jets who played at a 3 or 4 win level but won 8 games. The year before I believe it was Detroit that finished with a terrible record that was 4 games or so below their projection.

So anyway we’ll see how things go for the two teams. As for the rest of the list there was little in the way of changes except for the Steelers falling following a terrible loss to the Jets. The Steelers no shows against the Jets and Buccaneers among others really hurts them in these rankings. If they played those teams like they did the Colts they would be a top 10, probably 5, team. They are just a strange team.

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NFL Power Rankings, Through Week 10

Rank Change Team Scoring Efficiency Defensive Efficiency Total Efficiency Projected Wins
1 Broncos 50.2% 7.2% 57.4% 13.4
2 Colts 43.0% 1.0% 44.0% 12.1
3 Patriots 39.6% -0.5% 39.1% 11.7
4 Chiefs 3.6% 26.5% 30.2% 10.9
5 +1 Ravens 6.4% 23.4% 29.8% 10.8
6 -1 Dolphins 11.5% 17.2% 28.7% 10.7
7 Eagles 28.1% -0.1% 28.0% 10.6
8 +2 Packers 30.1% -3.9% 26.2% 10.4
9 -1 Cardinals 3.0% 21.5% 24.5% 10.3
10 +5 Seahawks 8.1% 9.6% 17.7% 9.7
11 +1 Lions -18.3% 33.6% 15.3% 9.5
12 +2 Saints 23.4% -12.1% 11.4% 9.0
13 -2 Cowboys 8.1% 2.4% 10.5% 9.0
14 +2 Chargers 1.2% 8.5% 9.8% 8.9
15 +2 Bills -3.1% 11.5% 8.4% 8.8
16 -7 Steelers 13.6% -7.3% 6.3% 8.6
17 +3 Browns -7.8% 13.2% 5.4% 8.5
18 Texans -5.2% 8.3% 3.1% 8.3
19 49ers -9.4% 10.5% 1.1% 8.1
20 -3 Bengals -6.0% 1.6% -4.5% 7.6
21 Giants -0.7% -8.3% -9.0% 7.1
22 Vikings -24.2% 7.9% -16.3% 6.5
23 Redskins -5.9% -14.5% -20.4% 6.0
24 Falcons -1.7% -25.0% -26.7% 5.4
25 Panthers -16.4% -13.6% -30.1% 5.1
26 +3 Jets -24.4% -8.9% -33.3% 4.9
27 Titans -29.7% -5.0% -34.7% 4.7
28 -2 Bears -9.0% -29.3% -38.3% 4.3
29 +1 Rams -19.3% -20.5% -39.8% 4.2
30 -2 Raiders -26.3% -13.6% -39.9% 4.2
31 Jaguars -31.6% -16.3% -47.9% 3.5
32 Buccaneers -25.1% -35.2% -60.2% 2.3

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