Week 6 was an improvement with 10 outright winners and 8 winners with the points. The yearly record now stands at 57-35 SU and 45-47 ATS through 6 weeks. Onto week 7….
Buccaneers (+7.5) over FALCONS– Both teams are suffering through a terrible season but at least the Falcons have injury excuses to cover for the fact that they were likely never going to fire this year. If Tampa had an offensive pulse they would have won a few games and if they find one this week maybe they win this week. I’m not predicting that but do think this spread is way too high for the game. Falcons 19 Buccaneers 14
Bills (+8.5) over DOLPHINS– Interesting game. The Bills do compete most weeks and nobody really knows how to read Miami. The Dolphins need the win to avoid falling to 0.500, plus a loss kind of buries the Bills. Miami is the better team and should win as long as they don’t doubt themselves, but 8.5 points seems like too many against a team that can run the ball, even if they have no QB. Dolphins 30 Bills 24
REDSKINS (-1.5) over Bears– Chicago probably should have lost against a terrible Giants team last Thursday and will now go onto the road to face a Redskins team that is at least showing some improvements. The X-factor here is the special teams as Washington’s is horrific, but that would be something to see them blow a game two weeks in a row. High scoring game with limited defense. Redskins 33 Bears 31
Bengals (+2.5) over LIONS– Detroit had a nice road win led by Matt Stafford in the second half in Cleveland, while the Bengals offense woke up a bit out in Buffalo. Tough game to call and the numbers basically indicate a tie game. I’ll favor the home team in this case to win but Ill take the points anyway. Lions 21 Bengals 20
Cowboys (+2.5) over EAGLES– I don’t really understand the line for this game. I know Dallas has some injuries but has anyone watched the Eagles defense? Dallas should carve that unit up unless their “road” face shows up where their offense seems to not click as quickly. High scoring fun contest that should give Dallas a real stranglehold on the division. Cowboys 38 Eagles 30
PANTHERS (-6.5) over Rams– I think its pretty clear I’m bullish on the Panthers this season. The only real worry for me with them is their coaching. The coaching is below average and that is never the way to win in the NFL. Maybe the offense turned a corner last week. If they did look out. Panthers 24 Rams 10
Patriots (-4.5) over JETS– The loss to the Steelers last week was a big one for my Jets as that would have made a loss here more acceptable. This is a bad matchup for New York who is struggling in coverage and relies on big offensive plays. Patriots defense has been exceptional this season and their coach always deals well with injuries. The Jets played well in the first matchup but the usual way this series goes is a close game followed by a blowout. I wont predict a blowout but I don’t think the Jets will be in this one in the 4th quarter. Patriots 21 Jets 10
Chargers (-7.5) over JAGUARS– Teams should only get a ½ win in the standings if they get to beat Jacksonville. Even San Diego can’t screw this up with a letdown game right? Chargers 31 Jaguars 13
TITANS (+4.5) over 49ers– This is a real difficult back to back set for Tennessee. They simply are not in the class of these types of teams but they are no so far below that they can not compete. I have a feeling by the end of the season Titans fans will look back on some losses and say how just one play here or there was the difference in many games. 49ers 21 Titans 19
Browns (+10.5) over PACKERS– Cleveland’s defense is better than it showed last week when they started to fall apart against the Lions. Having Brandon Weedan doesn’t exactly give a team confidence but I don’t think they will fracture apart just yet. Packers should never be in trouble in the game, but Cleveland can at least hang around. Packers 27 Browns 19
CHIEFS (-6.5) over Texans– Houston is one of the worst teams in the NFL and are turning to Case Keenum to try to break their string of turnover prone QB’s that just hand the game to the opponent. Like seemingly every KC game Id anticipate the game to be somewhat close for 3 quarters before Kc’s defense just wears the opponent down turning it into a blowout. Chiefs 31 Texans 9
COLTS (+6.5) over Broncos– The Colts certainly laid an egg last week and all I can imagine is that they were looking ahead to this game rather than preparing for San Diego. The Colts are a team that can give the Broncos problems because they can play some defense and they have a decent offense provided that the game isn’t too big for them, and the owner has probably put more pressure on his team with all the comments leading up to the game. I wouldn’t be stunned if the Colts pull off an upset but lets call it Denver by 4. Broncos 35 Colts 31
Vikings (+3.5) over GIANTS– A truly awful MNF contest between two teams going nowhere. At least there is a little substory to the game with Josh Freeman taking over as Viking QB and this is the perfect team to do it against. New York is a turnover factory, cant rush the passer, cant protect the QB, and cant cover in the secondary. At this point you have to factor in Eli just handing the Vikings 7. Vikings 31 Giants 23
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.