Last week was just brutal with only 5 correct games. Thursday night this week was a split with the Bears winning but failing to cover the point spread. The record is now 47-30 on the season straight up and a sad 37-40 ATS. Lets hope for better in week 6….
BILLS (+7.5) over Bengals– The Bills essentially have no QB for the game which makes this ever harder than usual to predict. That said I don’t feel the Bills have gotten much out of the QB position anyway and have been opportunistic defensively which should continue against Andy Dalton. The Bengals are the better team but with the line so big, the Bills being well rested plus playing on the road I’ll take the points. Bengals 26 Bills 21
BROWNS (+2.5) over Lions– The Browns have no QB but with the Lions WR corps’ hurting they don’t seem to have much of a QB either. Browns defense should be able to bottle up anything the Lions can do but the question is can the offense do enough to win. This is a completely even game so I’ll give the home team the nod. Browns 23 Lions 20
RAVENS (+3.5) over Packers– Both teams come off well deserved wins that were important to both of their seasons. The Ravens are traditionally a very good home team, though I’m not exactly sure how they can match up with Green Bay’s offense. Joe Flacco needs to start playing like he did in the playoffs to win the game. There are definitely weaknesses he can exploit and that should be enough to win with the points. Packers 26 Ravens 23
CHIEFS (-9.5) over Raiders– Oakland is playing far better than anyone ever thought they would but the Chiefs defense is a different level right now. When you have this type of defense it will be extremely difficult for the Raiders to score points. Chiefs will slowly pull away to win this one. Chiefs 23 Raiders 7
Rams (+7.5) over TEXANS– I admit that I am surprised the Texans are sticking with Matt Schaub at QB. Not because Schaub is as bad as people think but simply because he has no confidence now and has begun to believe he is as bad as people think. I can’t imagine another pick 6 from him, but the Texans are a play to opponents level tea, anyway so I’m sure the Rams will stay within stinking distance. Texans 27 Rams 24
Panthers (+2.5) over VIKINGS– The Panthers offense no-showed last week and ruined another good defensive effort, but Minnesota’s defense should prove to be an easier opponent. Vikings are starting Matt Cassel I believe and I have a very hard time picturing him moving the ball on this defense. Josh Freeman talk will begin at some point during this game. Panthers 23 Vikings 16
JETS (-2.5) over Steelers– This game is an example of why reading into season schedules is pointless. People talked all offseason about the difficulty of the Jets early schedule, but this will be the third opponent so far with 1 win or less. The one advantage Pittsburgh has is that they are far more rested than the Jets who ended an emotional game late on Monday. Pittsburgh will give it their all but Im not sure they have it clicking this year at all. Jets 23 Steelers 17
Eagles (-1.5) over BUCCANEERS– Tampa Bay has had two weeks to prepare for this game, but this is a team spiraling out of control. They have this infection thing hanging over their head and a team that is just about ready to bail on the coach. The Eagles may not have the same dynamic without Vick, but I do still expect Revis vs Jackson to be a fun matchup. Eagles 20 Buccaneers 14
BRONCOS (-27.5) over Jaguars– I never thought I would see this kind of line in the NFL and there is always a chance for the call off the dogs move by the Broncos that I guess could lead to a backdoor cover, but does anyone even give the Jaguars a prayer? Wipeout. Broncos 63 Jaguars 13
Titans (+13.5) over SEAHAWKS– I’d be very happy with this line if Ryan Fitzpatrick was not the QB of the Titans which gives me a little reservation, but that Tennessee team should be able to do enough defensively to hang around. Seattle is very good but the offense is not really clicking yet and even at home I’m not sure if they can blow out a decent team if they are not completely emotionally invested in the outcome. Seahawks 27 Titans 21
Saints (+2.5) over PATRIOTS– Right now the Patriots are being carried by their defense while the offense attempts to sort things out, especially with Gronkowski’s continued absence from the team. New Orleans is just playing so well right now on both sides that they should have the advantage in the game even playing on the road. Saints 19 Patriots 13
Cardinals (+11.5) over 49ERS– If Arizona only had an offense they would be the second best team in the division. I think the 49ers will struggle to score points against the Cardinals and that the Cardinals will be a legit upset chance this week. Way too much respect for the 49ers this week. 49ers 19 Cardinals 16
COWBOYS (-5.5) over Redskins– The important thing for Dallas this week is to simply avoid the hangover from last weeks heartbreaking loss to maintain their position in the division. The Redskins need to look at this game as the way to salvage their season, but its hard to picture one week off making that kind of difference to the team. Romo will quiet some critics this week. Cowboys 34 Redskins 23
Colts (-1.5) over CHARGERS– I have to admit to being really wrong about the Colts this season. They are far better than I ever gave them credit for being and Andrew Luck has really improved. The Chargers lost a bad game against Oakland last week that probably wiped out all the goodwill from the prior weeks since it seemed to be classic San Diego under Norv. Think this is too tough of an opponent for Rivers and company. Colts 31 Chargers 16
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.