For those keeping track I went a reasonable 10-6 picking the games last week but a horrible 6-10 once I put the point spread into the equation. So we stand at 119-73 and 96-96 on the year.
PACKERS (-4.5) over Falcons– I’m surprised at how much the Falcons fought last week to get a win, but I don’t know how much fight they give in the cold this week. Green Bays season has fallen apart with no QB, but they should be able to hold off Atlanta even if Rodgers doesn’t play. Packers 29 Falcons 23
Bills (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS– These are two pretty evenly matched teams. I kind of wonder if the Bucs losing last week took a little something out of them, though playing at home should help. Close game. Buccaneers 19 Bills 17
BENGALS (-5.5) over Colts– The way Indianapolis has played lately it would seem that a tough defense like the Bengals will be way too much for them. If the Bengals could ever find any offensive consistency they could get to the Super Bowl. If they dont find it I wonder if they entertain the idea of a veteran QB? Bengals 24 Colts 17
Browns (+12.5) over PATRIOTS– the Browns should not stand a chance in this one, but they will fight until the end and they have a receiver on a pretty incredible streak right now to help them get the cover. Doubt the Patriots have any real trouble though as they are gearing up for another deep playoff run. Patriots 30 Browns 20
Lions (+2.5) over EAGLES– This should be a great game between two playoff contenders. The Eagles need this more than the Lions, but Detroit needs to prove it can win some big games away from home. Lions have had more time to prepare and should be able to expose the Philly defense. Lions 27 Eagles 24
Chiefs (-3.5) over REDSKINS– Kansas City is fading but this is the perfect type of team to get healthy against. Redskins are awful and playing things out. Chiefs offense has looked much better in this stretch so maybe they will have found something for the playoffs. Chiefs 27 Redskins 17
Raiders (+2.5) over JETS– As of right now the Jets are the worst team in the NFL and I’m not sure it’s even close. Nothing worse than watching Raider Nation take over the stadium but I have a feeling in the 4th quarter we’ll be sitting through that. Raiders 21 Jets 17
Dolphins (+3.5) over STEELERS– I know everyone has written the Steelers off after losing last week but I think they are very much alive if they can win this game. I don’t really trust Miami. Ryan Tannehill is all kinds of inconsistent and their coaching is suspect. Steelers win a very close one. Steelers 23 Dolphins 21
Vikings (+7.5) over RAVENS– Must win game for the Ravens who will come up against a game Vikings team that should be overmatched but seems to find a way to compete most weeks. Baltimore will win but are too inconsistent to do it by 7.5 against a team that continues to play hard. Ravens 26 Vikings 20
BRONCOS (-12.5) over Titans– Tennessee needs to be in the QB hunt next season. I cant imagine them being confident in the always injured Jake Locker and super effort, but limited talent Ryan Fitzpatrick. This game has blowout written all over it. Broncos 39 Titans 20
Rams (+6.5) over CARDINALS– Arizona’s season is on a bit of life support after dropping the game in Philadelphia last week. I still think they can be a very dangerous playoff team if they get there. This will be a tough game as the Rams usually play well in divisional games. Cardinals 24 Rams 20
CHARGERS (-3.5) over Giants– The return of Eli Manning to the place he didn’t want to play for, though Eli cant recall why that was the case. I guess that can be some type of story to make the game more appealing than it is as both teams are done. Take the home team. Chargers 23 Giants 17
Seahawks (+2.5) over 49ERS– Big test for San Francisco who has been terrific against lower level teams this year but struggled a bit with better ones. Seahawks stomped them in Seattle but things are usually different when the game is away. I think it comes down to the QBs here and Russell Wilson is the real deal. Seahawks 19 49ers 17
Panthers (+3.5) over SAINTS– The Saints are coming off what may have been their worst game of the season and may feel comfort from coming home, but the Panthers are a the kind of tough team that can give the Saints fits. I don’t get why nobody mentions the Panthers when talking about NFC SB representatives but I give them the second best chance behind Seattle. Panthers 23 Saints 14
Cowboys (-1.5) over BEARS– The Bears defense is so bad that I can’t picture them stopping a very well rested Dallas offense. Cowboys hold destiny in their hands yet again, but maybe this is the time they don’t let it go. Cowboys 30 Bears 27.
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.