Thanksgiving looked to be on the way to a 2-1 record before the Janikowski backdoor cover pushed it back to 1-2 ATS. Not including those games were at 109-67 and 90-86 on the season following last weeks 7-7 record both SU and ATS. Onto week 13….
Bears (+0.5) over VIKINGS– I know that the Bears just got blown out by the Rams but has anyone really watched Minnesota this year? They play no defense, don’t have a special home field, and make more than enough mistakes on offense to counter anything good they do. Bears 37 Vikings 28
BROWNS (-7.5) over Jaguars– Cleveland has fallen apart as the year as has gone on, having fallen victim to the no QB dilemma bringing the play of the whole team down. Still this is Jacksonville and that can be a cure all for many teams in the NFL. Incredibly important game for draft seeding. Browns 24 Jaguars 13
Titans (+4.5) over COLTS– I thought Tennessee matched up well against the Colts the last time they played and I think it even more so now as the Colts look lost on the field. I have to give Indy some advantage for being home and maybe that helping them right the ship, but the Titans have a real chance. Colts 23 Titans 21
Dolphins (+1.5) over JETS– The one lasting hope for Jets fans is that the Jets prove to have a real home field difference and that Geno Smith plays much better at home than away from it. Miami wont exploit them s badky as others by throwing deep as that is not really Tannehill’s best asset but they should take chances until the Jets prove they can stop it. I’ll be surprised if Smith finishes the game as QB this week. Dolphins 24 Jets 17
Patriots (-8.5) over TEXANS– Houston is a team that has thrown in the towel. The Patriots never let teams like that have an opportunity to win a game. Patriots 30 Texans 17
Cardinals (+3.5) over EAGLES– Much like how people eventually warmed up to the idea of the Panthers being a good team I think they are beginning to do the same with Arizona. I still don’t love Carson Palmer but hes played better and they don’t need much with the defense. Big test for Nick Foles. Cardinals 23 Eagles 20
PANTHERS (-8.5) over Buccaneers– This certainly will not be a cakewalk for Carolina, but even with Tampa finishing out games and playing better I don’t see them being able to put up enough points to win. Carolina will slowly pull away to cover this one. Panthers 23 Buccaneers 10
BILLS (-3.5) over Falcons– This season can not end fast enough for the Falcons. Buffalo still thinks they have an outside shot at the playoffs and are playing well, which is more than can be said of Atlanta. If I were the Falcons Id be considering a hiring search rather than giving the coach a vote of confidence.
Rams (+9.5) over 49ERS– St. Louis has really picked their play up the last two weeks, especially on defense. They are finding ways to score big points too, but I don’t think they have that same success against San Francisco. Still I expect them to keep this a game and be in it until late in the 4th quarter. 49ers 26 Rams 17
Bengals (+1.5) over CHARGERS– Big game for both teams as Cincy could be in danger of falling back to the Ravens while the Chargers need to keep pace with the rest of the AFC Wildcard teams. Both teams are very up and down and hard to predict but the Bengals defense should make the difference. Bengals 24 Chargers 20
CHIEFS (+4.5) over Broncos– I feel like the Chiefs got caught looking ahead last week leading to them getting picked off by San Diego, but luckily for them the Broncos fell apart in New England. I expect the game to be very close and for the Chiefs to be a little more open offensively than the last time. Whichever team loses is going to be looked at negatively in the press for at least a full week. Chiefs 29 Broncos 27
Giants (-1.5) over REDSKINS– The Giants could have won against Dallas last week but didn’t and I wonder what their mental state is. Still we know what a mess the Skins are and they could be on their way to the worst record in the NFL. Giants win a close one. Giants 23 Redskins 21
Saints (+5.5) over SEAHAWKS– New Orleans has to prove to themselves and everyone else that they can play well against a quality football team when they are on the road. New Orleans has the offense to keep up and stay within a score though I would be more surprised if they won than I would be if they were blown out. Seahawks 23 Saints 20
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.