For those keeping track I went a reasonable 10-6 picking the games last week but a horrible 6-10 once I put the point spread into the equation. So we stand at 119-73 and 96-96 on the year.
Texans (-2.5) over JAGUARS– I believe that Houston is the better team and certainly capable of playing higher quality football, but there should be some concerns about them playing on the road where they have been pretty terrible. Jacksonville certainly tries each week and has surprisingly won a few games after a historically bad start.
The only reason this game has any interest is due to draft standings. The big winner in all of this is the Rams who will jump into 2nd place in the draft standing regardless of the result, either having less wins than the Jaguars or a SOS tiebreaker over the Texans. The Rams own the Redskins draft pick.
For teams hoping for a higher draft selection the team they want to win is Houston. Because Houston had to play the Patriots and Ravens rather than Bills and Browns that have a much higher SOS than the Jaguars. A loss by the Texans would actually drop them from first to 4th. The Jaguars still have home games remaining with the Bills and Titans so you could make a case that they can sneak out one more win. The Texans host the Broncos and have to travel to Indy and Tennessee. This is probably their last win destination so you want them to win it to make SOS meaningful. If they finish the year with 2 wins its no longer meaningful. Texans 26 Jaguars 20
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.