Things were not as bad with the picks ast week as I think I went 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS, but I’ll verify those when I get to the full slate of games tomorrow, but for now…
Seahawks (-6.5) over CARDINALS– I actually think that there are a great deal of similarities between these two teams. I love both defenses and think both are terrific. The teams would both like to ground the other team to halt and are more than happy playing grind it out football decided late in the 4th quarter. I think both were on a similar path to being decent but the Seahawks made one important personnel decision and obviously one great draft pick to put them on a real path to success while Arizona keeps hoping they can stay in the hunt.
Seattle’s decision to commit to a workhorse running game rather than building “outside-in” (though they certainly spent plenty of money on receivers and Tight Ends) and getting superb performance from Marshawn Lynch gave them a way to power through close contests and wear teams out as games went on. That was far different than Arizona’s belief that they could throw over everybody even with a substandard QB. Of course the second game changer was Russell Wilson, but even if Seattle had not drafted him their decision to commit to Lynch would have put them in a far better place than Arizona where the offense had nothing to fall back on when the passes fell incomplete.
With Wilson the advantage goes from a few points to gigantic. He’s such a calm player that makes the most out of limited passing weapons and scrambles to make plays late in games when the offense has to make a play. Arizona can’t match that and really needs to rethink their makeup in the future if they want to get to where Seattle is now. As it is they need a perfect game to compete.
My guess is the game will stay close for 3 quarters or so before Seattle’s superior personnel, which is ultra important for a Thursday game, simply takes over and pulls away. Seahawks 26 Cardinals 14
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.