So last week I went 8-5 with the points and 9-4 without, so a bit better. The season record stands at 77-43 straight up and 62-58 against the spread.
Bengals (-2.5) over DOLPHINS– Miami could be close to a state of panic having lost four games in a row and losing confidence in themselves. To the Dolphins credit they have been in almost every game and have kind of fallen apart towards the end of their losses, which reflects poorly on the coaching. The players on the team are beginning to grumble about play calling and you have to wonder what this will do to QB Ryan Tannehill. Usually the first knock goes at the coaches but at some point, rightly or wrongly, players will begin to think it’s the QB not getting the job done. They are close to the tipping point I believe.
The Bengals are coming at this from the opposite side of the field. They are playing great football and for the last three weeks QB Andy Dalton has been as productive as anyone in the league. He still misses his share of receivers down the field, but they make up for it with AJ Green. Their offensive line is playing great and on defense they generate tremendous pressure from their front four. They look to be the class of the AFC North.
For Miami to win they are going to have to win that line battle and get after Dalton. That won’t be easy as Dalton is also getting the ball out quickly to avoid pressure. I’m not sure how Miami deals with the intensity of the Bengals defense and I can’t really see an answer for that. Miami made a terrible mistake in not trading for Branden Albert or re-signing Jake Long, either of whom would have stabilized the tackle spot for at least this season. Bengals 24 Dolphins 17
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.