Things were much better last week posting a 9-4 record straight and a 10-3 record with the points. After winning both picks on Thursday the record now stands at 98-49-1 and 86-58-4. Let’s see if we can keep a winning record going this weekend, in what looks like a fun slate of games.
Texans (+3.5) over BROWNS– Obviously the loss of Arian Foster will be big in this game, but I think these two teams still match up very evenly. My only worry with this pick is if the Houston QB is so bad that he costs them the cover, but its not as if Ryan Mallet is a rookie- he’s been around for awhile but never played. Browns are on a bit of a magic carpet ride and Ill take that to continue but not by 4 points. Browns 20 Texans 17
Vikings (+2.5) over BEARS– Chicago is coming apart at the seams and I don’t see that changing this week. Minnesota is much better than people give them credit for being and they have the extra time to prepare for this one. Chicago makes enough mistakes on both sides of the ball to get upset this week. Vikings 24 Bears 20
Eagles (+5.5) over PACKERS– This could be a great, high scoring game where the first to 33+ wins the game. Of these two the Eagles are the one that will be more prone to an implosion due to the QB, but Sanchez was effective in his first start and should get another opportunity to fling the ball around. Green Bay has the advantage being home and the QB is light years better, but 5.5 points is a lot. Packers 34 Eagles 30
CHIEFS (-1.5) over Seahawks– This should be the opposite of the above game in terms of offensive firepower. Most likely first to 20 wins this game. Seattle is at their best when Russell Wilson can freelance and open up the running game but right now the Chiefs defense is playing well enough to contain Wilson and focus on stopping Lynch. Chiefs pull it out late. Chiefs 21 Seahawks 19
Falcons (-1.5) over PANTHERS– Carolina is really bad right now. Their QB is not 100% and is also pressing because of his struggles which is never a good combination. Atlanta defense has been a little bit better of late and has far more explosive talent on offense. Falcons 27 Panthers 23
Bengals (+7) over SAINTS– The Bengals have really fallen apart but I have to imagine they have a better effort in them this week, especially against a porous Saints defense. I expect the Saints to win the game but can not picture them covering the spread unless the Bengals just roll over and play dead. Saints 27 Bengals 23
REDSKINS (-7.5) over Buccaneers– Do you realize how bad of a football team you have to be to be more than a touchdown underdog to Washington? Tampa just has nothing and Im sure the Redskins will hit a few down the field plays to their receivers that will make the difference. Redskins 29 Buccaneers 17
Broncos (-9) over RAMS– The Rams every now and then put forth a good effort, but I cant see that making any difference this week. The only question here is whether or not the Broncos call off the dogs in the 3rd quarter or not. Broncos 41 Rams 17
49ers (-3.5) over GIANTS– This is a game I keep going back and forth on with who to pick. New York is a bit better than the record indicates but they almost always make mistakes that turn games quickly. They are also going through a locker room crisis. That said it’s a colder type game for San Francisco and one where they will likely be extra confident. Don’t think the spread means much as the Giants are either winning outright or losing by a pretty decent margin. 49ers 24 Giants 19
CHARGERS (-10.5) over Raiders– This is another difficult game because the Chargers have been headed in the wrong direction for a few weeks and this is a gigantic line. Oakland did play this team tough a few weeks ago where Derek Carr had his career game, but with a week rest Ill go with the Chargers. Chargers 28 Raiders 14
CARDINALS (-1) over Lions– Should be a struggle for both offenses to overcome the defensive strengths of the other. Winner of this game has a very strong case for being the number 1 overall seed. Arizona is a bit more well rounded and I don’t expect them to suffer much with the loss of Palmer since they already won a few games with Stanton earlier this year. Take the home team. Cardinals 21 Lions 19
Patriots (+3.5) over COLTS– Should be a really fun game where Andrew Luck takes another stab at knocking off one of the big two. Don’t expect a ton of defense in this one though I actually think the Colts defense has a better chance at doing something positive. I’d expect this to come down to a field goal late. Colts 33 Patriots 31
Steelers (-6) over TITANS– There is no logical reason for this game to be close, but it’s the Steelers and you can throw all logic out the window with this team. Id pay little attention to the line as this is either the Steelers by double digits or a 1 point nail biter. Steelers 27 Titans 16
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.