Last week I did well picking straight up with a 12-3 record, but struggled against the spread going 8-7. My yearly record is now 116-59-1 SU and 101-71-4 ATS. Enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday with some good food and football and let’s see how bad my picks will be today. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Bears (+7.5) over LIONS– I find it very difficult to pick the Bears who had to be haded a game last week, but I find it more difficult to think that the Lions offense can score enough to beat this team by more than a touchdown. Detroit needs this game in the worst way and their defense should hold the Bears offense in check, but I don’t think Matt Stafford has the confidence needed to exploit a really bad Chicago secondary. Lions 20 Bears 14
Eagles (+3) over COWBOYS– This should be the game of the day with a great deal of back and forth action. I don’t anticipate either defense stopping the other teams offense. Dez Bryant should be in line for a big day and Jeremy Maclin should do the same for Philadelphia. If the Eagles can continue their incredible special teams dominance they have a chance to win the game outright, but if not it will be a problem. DeMarco Murray should put up big yards but he has to keep the ball off the ground because no teams lives off others mistakes as much as Philly. If the game is played straight up Dallas should win and cover, but that hasnt been the Eagles way so Ill hedge on this one. Cowboys 31 Eagles 29
Seahawks (+1.5) over 49ERS– The loser of this one is going to have a tough time making the playoffs this year. Neither team is anywhere near as good as their reputations and certainly not as good as last season, but both are viable teams. Of the two I think the Seahawks are more consistent and play a better brand of football. The 49ers have survived the last few weeks and those were games their opponents lost as much as they were 49ers wins. Seattle won’t make those mistakes. Seahawks 20 49ers 16
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.