While the website is mainly a salary cap website I’ll be posting other NFL related items from time to time and predictions each week will be one of those features. For those who don’t know me from Nyjetscap (where I’ll keep most of my Jets related content), I’ll post picks each week using the point spread just as I did there for years. For the first few weeks I’ll wing it with the selections but in week 4 or 5 I’ll start basing selections on my NFL Efficiency ratings that I keep for each team.
Last year I went 151-91 straight up and 125-117 ATS, missing a week when we were without power due to the Hurricane. The year before I went 167-89 straight and 147-109 ATS. I’ll use the ESPN spreads this season as I just joined the Boston Globes Ben Volin’s “Beat the Volin” group to track the results. I’ll be back on Friday or Saturday with the rest of the picks. Feel free to comment on any picks.
Ravens (+8.5) over BRONCOS– I do think the Ravens got screwed over by not being allowed to open the season at home as Denver is a very difficult place to play and the Super Bowl champion should get a better open than this. That said I think Baltimore will actually win the game this week. Obviously readers of the site know I’m not a big Joe Flacco fan but he matches up well with this defense in Denver.
Peyton Manning has not been a great week 1 player to where you can just pencil him in for a two score cover. Manning is 2-2 in his last 4 openers, and since 2002 would have only covered a two score spread three times. Flacco has yet to lose an opening game since entering the NFL in 2008. The Ravens really beat the Broncos up last season and I can’t see the addition of Welker making that kind of difference. So I look at this as the best of both world getting so many points and thinking that the Ravens can win the game. Ravens 24 Broncos 20
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.