During the offseason I did some work on valuations of a few positions and thought it might be worthwhile to look at a few of them on a weekly basis measure the value that a team is getting from their players. A player’s statistical performance is converted into a salary to attempt to put the numbers in better context. This week we’ll look at quarterbacks and see who were the best and worst players as well as those providing the most and least value this week.
Top 3 Quarterbacks
- Matt Ryan- $22.67M
Ryan’s 396 yard performance on 34 attempts was the best showing of the week. While he did have a big mistake with his interception, his overall efficiency and production were at the top of the list.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick- $21.35M
Fitzpatrick had quite the Thursday as he shredded the Bills defense for 374 passing yards and added another 21 with his legs. He made few mistakes on the day, especially after settling in early, and was only lacking in passes thrown for scores with the team opting to run at the goal.
- Carson Palmer- $21.33M
Palmer just edged out Philip Rivers which had everything to do with the Cardinals keeping the foot on the gas in their blowout of the Bucs. Palmer’s 3 touchdown and no interceptions on just 31 attempts gave him some big numbers both on a per attempt and total basis, despite the under 60% completion percentage.
Bottom 3 Quarterbacks
- Jameis Winston- $4.06M
Winston may have well have stayed in Tampa with his 4 interception day. It took Winston 52 attempts to get to 240 yards. You won’t find many worse performances than this one.
- Andrew Luck- $9.25M
There were worries about Luck going into this season and facing the NFL’s top defense did nothing to calm those fears. Luck didn’t pass the 200 yard mark despite 40 attempts on the day and was just one of two players to be under 5 YPA
- Alex Smith- $9.67M
Smith could not figure out the defense in Houston which led to quite the disastrous 186 yard day. About the only positive was that he did not get picked off.
Top 3 Most Valuable Quarterbacks
- Jimmy Garoppolo- $17.56M
This was a banner day for Tom Brady’s backup until he was injured. He still finished the day with 234 yards and three scores. All told he produced at a level nearly $18M higher than his APY.
- Dak Prescott- $17.24M
The Cowboys have to be thrilled with Prescott who threw for 292 yards and ran for a touchdown. Losing a high priced player like Tony Romo could only be offset if Prescott gave the team about $15M in value. He’s exceeding even that threshold.
- Derek Carr- $16.0M
The Raiders defense may not be able to stop anyone, but Carr continues to be one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. The Raiders have two years to get this kind of value from the QB spot before Carr hits free agency and the price skyrockets
Top 3 Least Valuable Quarterbacks
- Andrew Luck- -$15.07M
The Colts paid Luck as the best quarterback in the NFL and this week he was one of the worst. He underperformed his APY by $15 million, about $4 million worse than any other player.
- Drew Brees- -$10.5M
Brees didn’t have a bad game as his $14M value would indicate a pretty average game, but when you are one of the top paid players in the NFL average is not going to cut it. It’s doubtful Brees will have many more games like this.
- Aaron Rodgers- -$10.32M
Rodgers had a worse game than Brees and was in the below average starter territory Sunday night. Rodgers older contract is what prevented him from being closer to Luck’s number. Since last year Rodgers has seemingly been more streaky and the Packers need consistency to justify the investment.
Here are the value rankings for week 2:
|Player||Actual APY||Week 2 APY||Week 2 Value|
Jason is the founder of OTC and has been studying NFL contracts and the salary cap for over 15 years. Jason has co-authored two books about the NFL, Crunching Numbers and the Drafting Stage, which are widely circulated in the industry and hosts the OTC Podcast. Jason’s work has been featured in various publications including the Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, NFL Network and more. OTC is widely considered the leading authority on contract matters in the NFL.