We are excited to announce the debut of a small research book that focuses on the successes and failures in the modern NFL draft:
The Drafting Stage – Creating a Marketplace for NFL Draft Picks
Written by: Brad Spielberger & Jason Fitzgerald
If you work in/are affiliated with the NFL and are interested in receiving an electronic copy of the book, please email Brad at bradspielberger@gmail.com
The concept for the research was to use NFL salary data to retroactively grade every draft selection from 2011 through 2015 following the conclusion of their rookie contracts, and to use that data to better project the value of each future draft selection. To the best of our knowledge nobody has used this type of metric to value draft selections, as most other papers have dealt with inputs like “years making a pro bowl,” or “games started” to value the contribution and talent level of a draft pick in the NFL. Nothing is more all-encompassing, in our opinion, than the ultimate salary of a player, which should be reflective of every aspect of the player’s game.
We extended the study to go beyond just the typical “draft pick values” that are usually derived from draft analysis work. In the book we touch on the following:
- Assessing every draft pick trade outcome from 2011 to 2015, by round, to determine who was the ultimate “winner and loser” based on the financial outcomes of the trade
- Developing Tiers based on a player’s salary to better identify the probabilities of finding a superstar, starter, backup, or replacement level player in the draft based on the draft round and position played
- Creating a system to evaluate contracts fairly and independent of position to better illustrate the value that can be found based on position influenced drafting
- Examining the success rates and selection rates by position to provide better information on when to strike on a specific position in the draft
- Providing some context to the idea of finding “ten-year starters” in the draft through examining the actual outcomes of every draft pick selected during the draft years that were studied
- Identifying the typical range and price of free agent talent available to better plan what positions should perhaps be given additional weight in the draft