The Seahawks roster overhaul is nearly complete after trading starting QB Geno Smith to the Raiders tonight for a 3rd round pick. Smith was going to count for $44.5 million on the Seahawks cap this year and had a salary of $31 million. This was the final year of Smith’s contract and he was likely looking for an extension which likely pushed Seattle more in the direction of a trade. The team will save $31 million in cap space with the trade. The dead money for Smith will be $13.5 million.

Smith will count, at the moment, for $31 million on the Raiders salary cap. My expectation is that the Raiders will negotiate a new contract with Smith prior to his $16 million roster bonus being due on the 5th day of the league year. Smith’s last contract with the Seahawks was worth $25 million per season in base value. My feeling would be that he would be looking for a contract similar to Derek Carr’s $37.5 million per year deal with New Orleans and at a minimum would want to match the Baker Mayfield $33.3 million per year contract with the Bucs.

Smith’s comeback story remains one of the best stories of recent years in the NFL. Smith was a football afterthought ever since he lost his starting job in New York after having his jaw broken by a teammate fighting with Smith. After leaving the Jets, Smith signed a $1.2 million contract with the Giants in 2017. He then took a $1 million contract with the Chargers in 2018. He landed in Seattle in 2018 for just $895,000. He returned the next two years on one year deals worth just $1.19 million and $1.21 million. It took all the way until 2022 for Smith to get a contract that resembled the contract of a decent backup- a one year deal for $3.5 million. Smith took the starting job and was rewarded with the current $25 million per year deal and now he is in line for another big deal as the Raiders starter. I am not sure if there has ever been a modern player career arc anything close to this.

While the trade may sting for Seahawk fans I think the approach they are taking is the right approach to team building. Seattle had a low ceiling but high floor with Smith at QB and was generally going to be locked into finishing with 8 to 10 wins. In some years that is probably good enough for a one round wildcard appearance. In others it will mean just missing out. To get into another three year, higher priced contract, isn’t going to change the outcomes for Seattle and this lets them embrace a complete roster reset. The team currently has about $62 million in cap room and that will increase by about $10 million when they trade DK Metcalf. More importantly they are at the top of the cap projections for 2026 and prior to this they were not going to be in good shape this year and had a chance to really hurt themselves in the future with extensions for Smith and Metcalf. If there is any downside to the trade timing is that it may limit their leverage in asking for a good return for Metcalf. At this point its clear that they are cleaning house.

The Raiders, with a recent influx of capital, are just hoping to compete. They could have gone after Aaron Rodgers, who has a higher ceiling than Smith but with a much lower floor, but that would have been a 1 year band aid at the most and their coach is familiar with Smith. Smith can give them some stability for a few years, though this does not feel much different than having Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter. The Raiders play in a difficult division featuring Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix. You also have to contend in the conference with Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. They are going to have to continue to be very aggressive in free agency and the draft to try to make a roster good enough to cover for the lower ceiling that Smith brings. The Raiders now have $50 million in cap room and can create more if they extend Smith. They have a ton of cap room in 2026 as well so the Raiders can be ultra aggressive if they want to be both this year and next.