Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Week 2 Signings)

Rather than update the long posts from last week, I will just link to those previous posts and then list the contracts for which we obtained details over the past week.  The pace of signings has clearly slowed significantly, and there are not many noteworthy free agents who remain unsigned.  I am not going to run the model on one-year contracts, and there are a few contracts for which I have not yet seen details (Charles Clay, Kenny Britt, Stevie Johnson, and Dwayne Bowe).  A couple of weeks from now I will review the Expected Contract Value results one position group at a time.

Week 1:  Offense

Week 1:  Defense

Offense:

Mike Iupati
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 98.9% $11,500,000
2016 $4,500,000 87.0% $3,915,000
2017 $8,000,000 54.4% $4,352,000
2018 $8,000,000 31.3% $2,504,000
2019 $8,000,000 21.3% $1,704,000
Subtotal $12,475,000 $11,500,000
Total $23,975,000
 
CJ Spiller
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.5% $5,750,000
2016 $3,250,000 82.4% $2,678,000
2017 $3,600,000 51.3% $1,846,800
2018 $3,400,000 30.5% $1,037,000
Subtotal $5,561,800 $5,750,000
Total $11,311,800
 
Jordan Cameron
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,500,000 93.2% $2,330,000 $5,000,000
2016 $7,500,000 44.3% $3,322,500
Subtotal $5,652,500 $5,000,000
Total $10,652,500
 
Cecil Shorts
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $500,000 95.2% $476,000 $2,500,000
2016 $3,000,000 43.3% $1,299,000
Subtotal $1,775,000 $2,500,000
Total $4,275,000
 
Paul Fanaika
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $800,000 94.3% $754,400 $1,750,000
2016 $1,550,000 61.8% $957.900
2017 $2,050,000 27.0% $553,500
Subtotal $2,265,800 $1,750,000
Total $4,015,800
 
Scott Chandler
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,250,000 84.0% $1,050,000 $2,000,000
2016 $2,050,000 32.9% $674,450
Subtotal $1,724,450 $2,000,000
Total $3,724,450
 
DeAngelo Williams
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $870,000 73.8% $642,060 $1,130,000
2016 $2,000,000 18.1% $362,000
Subtotal $1,004,060 $1,130,000
Total $2,134,060
 

Defense:

Antonio Cromartie
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.3% $7,000,000
2016 89.6% $8,000,000
2017 $7,000,000 36.2% $2,534,000 $1,000,000
2018 $9,000,000 11.7% $1,053,000
Subtotal $3,587,000 $16,000,000
Total $19,587,000
 
Derrick Morgan
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.5% $8,500,000
2016 $5,000,000 86.8% $4,340,000
2017 $6,500,000 58.3% $3,789,500
2018 $7,000,000 36.8% $2,576,000
Subtotal $10,705,500 $8,500,000
Total $19,205,500
 
Marcus Gilchrist
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,500,000 97.9% 1,468,500 $3,500,000
2016 $5,000,000 78.3% $3,915,000
2017 $6,000,000 49.9% $2,994,000
2018 $6,000,000 34.5% $2,070,000
Subtotal $10,447,500 $3,500,000
Total $13,947,500
 
Ron Parker
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 99.5% $248,750 $5,750,000
2016 $2,250,000 91.8% $2,065,500
2017 $4,250,000 62.9% $2,673,250
2018 $6,000,000 28.6% $1,716,000
2019 $6,500,000 17.0% $1,105,000
Subtotal $7,808,500 $5,750,000
Total $13,558,500
 
Michael Johnson
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,500,000 97.8% $1,467,000 $4,500,000
2016 $5,000,000 73.6% $3,680,000
2017 $4,000,000 50.5% $2,020,000
2018 $5,000,000 26.6% $1,330,000
Subtotal $8,497,000 $4,500,000
Total $12,997,000
 
Curtis Lofton
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 96.4% $96,400 $6,500,000
2016 $5,450,000 59.4% $3,237,300
2017 $5,950,000 24.5% $1,457,750
Subtotal $4,791,450 $6,500,000
Total $11,291,450
 
Tramon Williams
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $300,000 90.7% $272,100 $7,200,000
2016 $6,500,000 23.7% $1,540,500
2017 $7,000,000 10.7% $749,000
Subtotal $2,561,600 $7,200,000
Total $9,761,600
 
Perrish Cox
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,500,000 91.6% $2,290,000 $2,500,000
2016 $5,000,000 55.7% $2,785,000
2017 $5,000,000 31.3% $1,565,000
Subtotal $6,640,000 $2,500,000
Total $9,140,000
 
Vince Wilfork
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 87.3% $5,000,000
2016 $4,000,000 16.4% $656,000
Subtotal $656,000 $5,000,000
Total $5,656,000
 
Akeem Ayers
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 96.7% $241,750 $2,750,000
2016 $3,000,000 47.4% $1,422,000
Subtotal $1,663,750 $2,750,000
Total $4,413,750
 
Alan Branch
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,800,000 69.4% $1,249,200 $700,000
2016 $2,400,000 26.3% $631,200
Subtotal $1,880,400 $700,000
Total $2,580,400
 

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.