Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts (Offense)

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Quarterbacks:

Josh McCown
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 89.2% $5,250,000
2016 $3,375,000 23.3% $786,375 $1,000,000
2017 $4,375,000 5.8% $253,750
Subtotal $1,040,125 $6,250,000
Total $7,290,125
Mark Sanchez
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 97.3% $4,500,000
2016 $3,500,000 45.5% $1,592,500 $1,000,000
Subtotal $1,592,500 $5,500,000
Total $7,092,500
Brian Hoyer
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $500,000 92.9% $464,500 $4,750,000
2016 $5,250,000 29.4% $1,543,500
Subtotal $2,008,000 $4,750,000
Total $6,758,000
Ryan Mallett
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,750,000 92.0% $1,610,000 $1,750,000
2016 $3,500,000 41.0% $1,435,000
Subtotal $3,045,000 $1,750,000
Total $4,795,000
Shaun Hill
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $50,000 76.1% $38,050 $3,200,000
2016 $3,250,000 8.2% $266,500
Subtotal $304,550 $3,200,000
Total $3,504,550
Blaine Gabbert
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,500,000 88.5% $1,327,500 $500,000
2016 $2,000,000 55.6% $1,112,000
Subtotal $2,439,500 $500,000
Total $2,939,500

Running Backs:

DeMarco Murray
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $9,000,000
2016 98.2% $7,000,000
2017 $6,000,000 74.7% $4,482,000 $2,000,000
2018 $8,000,000 36.0% $2,880,000
2019 $8,000,000 25.7% $2,056,000
Subtotal $9,418,000 $18,000,000
Total $27,418,000
Mark Ingram
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 99.9% $99,900 $4,600,000
2016 $1,600,000 95.3% $1,524,800 $1,500,000
2017 $3,600,000 66.2% $2,383,200
2018 $4,600,000 40.2% $1,849,200
Subtotal $5,857,100 $6,100,000
Total $11,957,100
Shane Vereen
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 98.7% $98,700 $4,750,000
2016 $3,750,000 74.1% $2,778,750
2017 $3,750,000 46.8% $1,755,000
Subtotal $4,632,450 $4,750,000
Total $9,382,450
Frank Gore
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,000,000 96.4% $964,000 $3,500,000
2016 $1,000,000 67.2% $672,000 $3,000,000
2017 $3,500,000 14.3% $500,500
Subtotal $2,136,500 $6,500,000
Total $8,636,500
Ryan Matthews
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.4% $4,000,000
2016 $2,000,000 82.2% $1,644,000 $1,000,000
2017 $4,000,000 35.9% $1,436,000
Subtotal $3,080,000 $5,000,000
Total $8,080,000
Jerome Felton
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 98.8% $98,800 $3,600,000
2016 $1,650,000 79.3% $1,308,450
2017 $1,850,000 46.6% $862,100
2018 $2,000,000 24.8% $496,000
Subtotal $2,765,350 $3,600,000
Total $6,365,350
Justin Forsett
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 97.8% $3,000,000
2016 $3,000,000 52.3% $1,569,000
2017 $3,000,000 26.6% $798,000
Subtotal $2,367,000 $3,000,000
Total $5,367,000

Wide Receivers:

Jeremy Maclin
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 100.0% $250,000 $12,750,000
2016 $250,000 97.8% $244,500 $9,750,000
2017 $10,000,000 68.3% $6,830,000
2018 $11,000,000 40.0% $4,400,000
2019 $11,000,000 26.5% $2,915,000
Subtotal $14,639,500 $22,500,000
Total $37,139,500
Randall Cobb
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,100,000 99.6% $2,091,600 $13,000,000
2016 $5,900,000 93.8% $5,534,200
2017 $9,500,000 68.6% $6,517,000
2018 $9,500,000 46.1% $4,379,500
Subtotal $18,522,300 $13,000,000
Total $31,522,300
Torrey Smith
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,250,000 99.5% $1,243,750 $8,750,000
2016 $6,000,000 91.4% $5,484,000
2017 $8,000,000 70.1% $5,608,000
2018 $8,000,000 45.5% $3,640,000
2019 $8,000,000 31.7% $2,536,000
Subtotal $18,511,750 $8,750,000
Total $27,261,750
Dwayne Harris
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $25,000 99.9% $24,975 $4,975,000
2016 $875,000 96.7% $846,125 $2,125,000
2017 $3,000,000 70.5% $2,115,000
2018 $3,250,000 42.4% $1,378,000
2019 $3,250,000 28.1% $913,250
Subtotal $5,277,350 $7,100,000
Total $12,377,350
Andre Johnson
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 92.9% $7,500,000
2016 $2,500,000 37.6% $940,000 $2,500,000
2017 $6,000,000 9.2% $552,000
Subtotal $1,492,000 $10,000,000
Total $11,492,000
Eddie Royal
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.1% $5,500,000
2016 86.9% $4,500,000
2017 $5,000,000 24.3% $1,215,000
Subtotal $1,215,000 $10,000,000
Total $11,215,000
Brian Hartline
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 95.8% $3,000,000
2016 $3,000,000 37.9%
Subtotal $1,137,000 $3,000,000
Total $4,137,000
Ted Ginn
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,000,000 84.5% $845,000 $1,700,000
2016 $1,500,000 34.6% $519,000
Subtotal $1,364,000 $1,700,000
Total $3,064,000
Jacoby Jones
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $900,000 82.0% $738,000 $1,600,000
2016 $3,000,000 20.7% $621,000
Subtotal $1,359,000 $1,600,000
Total $2,959,000

Tight Ends:

Julius Thomas
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 99.6% $99,600 $15,000,000
2016 $100,000 97.0% $97,000 $6,000,000
2017 $7,100,000 65.6% $4,657,600
2018 $8,600,000 37.9% $3,259,400
2019 $9,100,000 26.0% $2,366,000
Subtotal $10,479,600 $21,000,000
Total $31,479,600
Lance Kendricks
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 98.9% $5,500,000
2016 $3,250,000 86.5% $2,811,250 $1,250,000
2017 $4,250,000 58.3% $2,477,750
2018 $4,250,000 30.9% $1,313,250
Subtotal $6,602,250 $6,750,000
Total $13,352,250
Owen Daniels
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,750,000 86.0% $1,505,000 $3,000,000
2016 $3,500,000 38.0% $1,330,000
2017 $4,000,000 14.7% $588,000
Subtotal $3,423,000 $3,000,000
Total $6,423,000
Lee Smith
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 97.6% $244,000 $3,100,000
2016 $2,750,000 71.5% $1,966,250
2017 $3,250,000 34.1% $1,108,250
Subtotal $3,318,500 $3,100,000
Total $6,418,500
Virgil Green
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 98.3% $3,200,000
2016 $2,400,000 66.2% $1,588,800
2017 $2,800,000 37.2% $1,041,600
Subtotal $2,630,400 $3,200,000
Total $5,830,500
Ed Dickson
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $850,000 95.9% $815,150 $2,000,000
2016 $1,900,000 65.7% $1,248,300
2017 $2,050,000 34.7% $711,350
Subtotal $2,774,800 $2,000,000
Total $4,774,800
Niles Paul
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 98.3% $245,750 $2,250,000
2016 $1,500,000 73.7% $1,105,500
2017 $2,000,000 43.3% $866,000
Subtotal $2,217,250 $2,250,000
Total $4,467,250

Offensive Tackles:

Bryan Bulaga
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,000,000 99.3% $1,986,000 $8,000,000
2016 $4,000,000 94.4% $3,776,000
2017 $6,250,000 74.3% $4,643,750
2018 $6,750,000 47.1% $3,179,250
2019 $6,750,000 32.0% $2,160,000
Subtotal $15,745,000 $8,000,000
Total $23,745,000
Jeremy Parnell
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.5% $8,000,000
2016 94.4% $6,500,000
2017 $6,500,000 56.5% $3,672,500
2018 $5,000,000 38.1% $1,905,000
2019 $6,000,000 16.9% $1,014,000
Subtotal $6,591,500 $14,500,000
Total $21,091,500
Derek Newton
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.7% $7,500,000
2016 $2,250,000 93.4% $2,101,500 $2,500,000
2017 $4,750,000 67.9% $3,225,250
2018 $4,750,000 44.8% $2,128,000
2019 $4,750,000 32.6% $1,548,500
Subtotal $9,003,250 $10,000,000
Total $19,003,250
King Dunlap
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $500,000 98.5% $492,500 $8,500,000
2016 $5,000,000 77.5% $3,875,000
2017 $6,750,000 39.6% $2,673,000
2018 $7,250,000 21.3% $1,544,250
Subtotal $8,584,750 $8,500,000
Total $17,084,750
Doug Free
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 96.9% $6,000,000
2016 $4,000,000 48.4% $1,936,000
2017 $5,000,000 18.2% $910,000
Subtotal $2,846,000 $6,000,000
Total $8,846,000
Joe Reitz
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,750,000 88.9% $1,555,750 $1,500,000
2016 $2,250,000 54.6% $1,228,500
2017 $2,500,000 20.9% $522,500
Subtotal $3,306,750 $1,500,000
Total $4,806,750
Michael Oher
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,250,000 89.0% $1,112,500 $2,500,000
2016 $3,250,000 34.6% $1,124,500
Subtotal $2,237,000 $2,500,000
Total $4,737,000

Interior Lineman:

Rodney Hudson
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $400,000 98.8% $395,200 $12,600,000
2016 $7,700,000 89.4% $6,883,800
2017 $6,850,000 77.9% $5,336,150
2018 $8,350,000 53.5% $4,467,250
2019 $8,600,000 30.0% $2,580,000
Subtotal $19,662,400 $12,600,000
Total $32,262,400
Orlando Franklin
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $10,000,000
2016 97.2% $5,500,000
2017 $6,000,000 62.9% $3,774,000
2018 $6,750,000 34.4% $2,322,000
2019 $7,250,000 21.3% $1,544,250
Subtotal $7,640,250 $15,500,000
Total $23,140,250
Clint Boling
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,100,000 98.2% $2,062,200 $5,000,000
2016 $4,250,000 84.9% $3,608,250
2017 $4,450,000 66.2% $2,945,900
2018 $4,950,000 41.9% $2,074,050
2019 $5,250,000 30.4% $1,596,000
Subtotal $12,286,400 $5,000,000
Total $17,286,400
James Carpenter
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.1% $5,000,000
2016 $4,700,000 77.8% $3,656,600
2017 $4,700,000 53.5% $2,514,500
2018 $4,700,000 37.1% $1,743,700
Subtotal $7,914,800 $5,000,000
Total $12,914,800

Specialists:

Brett Kern
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.5% $4,000,000
2016 $1,200,000 91.2% $1,094,400 $1,000,000
2017 $2,800,000 51.4% $1,439,200
2018 $3,000,000 26.7% $801,000
2019 $3,000,000 17.4% $522,000
Subtotal $3,856,600 $5,000,000
Total $8,856,600
Matt Prater
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,250,000 79.5% $993,750 $750,000
2016 $2,500,000 35.2% $880,000
2017 $3,700,000 12.7% $469,900
Subtotal $2,343,650 $750,000
Total $3,093,650

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.