Expected Contract Value: Valuing Free Agent Contracts 3/12

I will update this post as we get more contract details, and at the end of the primary signing period I will review the Expected Contract Value results for each position group, but for now I will post these numbers without comment.

Ndamukong Suh
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $15,000 100.0% $15,000 $26,485,000
2016 $15,000 99.0% $14,850 $23,485,000
2017 $15,000 94.8% $14,220 $9,985,000
2018 $17,000,000 50.5% $8,585,000
2019 $19,000,000 34.0% $6,460,000
2020 $18,360,000 16.6% $3,047,760
Subtotal $18,136,830 $59,955,000
Total $78,091,830

Pass Catchers:

Jeremy Maclin
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 100.0% $250,000 $12,750,000
2016 $250,000 97.8% $244,500 $9,750,000
2017 $10,000,000 68.3% $6,830,000
2018 $11,000,000 40.0% $4,400,000
2019 $11,000,000 26.5% $2,915,000
Subtotal $14,639,500 $22,500,000
Total $37,139,500
Randall Cobb
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,100,000 99.6% $2,091,600 $13,000,000
2016 $5,900,000 93.8% $5,534,200
2017 $9,500,000 68.6% $6,517,000
2018 $9,500,000 46.1% $4,379,500
Subtotal $18,522,300 $13,000,000
Total $31,522,300
Julius Thomas
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 99.6% $99,600 $15,000,000
2016 $100,000 97.0% $97,000 $6,000,000
2017 $7,100,000 65.6% $4,657,600
2018 $8,600,000 37.9% $3,259,400
2019 $9,100,000 26.0% $2,366,000
Subtotal $10,479,600 $21,000,000
Total $31,479,600
Torrey Smith
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,250,000 99.5% $1,243,750 $8,750,000
2016 $6,000,000 91.4% $5,484,000
2017 $8,000,000 70.1% $5,608,000
2018 $8,000,000 45.5% $3,640,000
2019 $8,000,000 31.7% $2,536,000
Subtotal $18,511,750 $8,750,000
Total $27,261,750

Running Backs:

Mark Ingram
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 99.9% $99,900 $4,600,000
2016 $1,600,000 95.3% $1,524,800 $1,500,000
2017 $3,600,000 66.2% $2,383,200
2018 $4,600,000 40.2% $1,849,200
Subtotal $5,857,100 $6,100,000
Total $11,957,100
Shane Vereen
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $100,000 98.7% $98,700 $4,750,000
2016 $3,750,000 74.1% $2,778,750
2017 $3,750,000 46.8% $1,755,000
Subtotal $4,632,450 $4,750,000
Total $9,382,450
Frank Gore
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $1,000,000 96.4% $964,000 $3,500,000
2016 $1,000,000 67.2% $672,000 $3,000,000
2017 $3,500,000 14.3% $500,500
Subtotal $2,136,500 $6,500,000
Total $8,636,500

Offensive Lineman:

Bryan Bulaga
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $2,000,000 99.3% $1,986,000 $8,000,000
2016 $4,000,000 94.4% $3,776,000
2017 $6,250,000 74.3% $4,643,750
2018 $6,750,000 47.1% $3,179,250
2019 $6,750,000 32.0% $2,160,000
Subtotal $15,745,000 $8,000,000
Total $23,745,000 (70.4%)
Orlando Franklin
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $10,000,000
2016 97.2% $5,500,000
2017 $6,000,000 62.9% $3,774,000
2018 $6,750,000 34.4% $2,322,000
2019 $7,250,000 21.3% $1,544,250
Subtotal $7,640,250 $15,500,000
Total $23,140,250
Derek Newton
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.7% $7,500,000
2016 $2,250,000 93.4% $2,101,500 $2,500,000
2017 $4,750,000 67.9% $3,225,250
2018 $4,750,000 44.8% $2,128,000
2019 $4,750,000 32.6% $1,548,500
Subtotal $9,003,250 $10,000,000
Total $19,003,250

Pass Rushers:

Jerry Hughes
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $150,000 99.7% $149,550 $11,625,000
2016 $4,675,000 97.0% $4,534,750 $6,000,000
2017 $7,550,000 76.6% $5,783,300
2018 $7,500,000 48.3% $3,622,500
2019 $7,500,000 30.1% $2,257,500
Subtotal $16,347,600 $17,625,000
Total $33,972,600
Brandon Graham
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.6% $9,000,000
2016 96.0% $4,000,000
2017 $6,500,000 47.8% $3,107,000
2018 $6,500,000 31.2% $2,028,000
Subtotal $5,135,000 $13,000,000
Total $18,135,000

Defensive Backs:

Darrelle Revis
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.7% $16,000,000
2016 95.9% $17,000,000
2017 $9,000,000 64.8% $5,832,000 $6,000,000
2018 $11,000,000 32.2% $3,542,000
2019 $11,000,000 15.3% $1,683,000
Subtotal $11,057,000 $39,000,000
Total $50,057,000
Devin McCourty
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $500,000 99.9% $499,500 $17,500,000
2016 $500,000 98.1% $490,500 $4,500,000
2017 $7,000,000 74.3% $5,201,000
2018 $8,000,000 42.5% $3,400,000
2019 $9,500,000 22.5% $2,137,500
Subtotal $11,728,500 $22,000,000
Total $33,728,500
Kareem Jackson
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $250,000 99.8% $249,500 $14,000,000
2016 $250,000 96.5% $241,250 $6,000,000
2017 $6,750,000 58.9% $3,975,750
2018 $6,750,000 37.2% $2,511,000
Subtotal $6,977,500 $20,000,000
Total $26,977,500
Brandon Flowers
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $10,250,000
2016 94.0% $7,750,000
2017 $9,000,000 38.4% $3,456,000
2018 $9,400,000 21.3% $2,002,200
Subtotal $5,458,200 $18,000,000
Total $23,458,200
Buster Skrine
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 99.9% $6,500,000
2016 96.6% $6,500,000
2017 $6,000,000 53.7% $3,222,000
2018 $6,000,000 37.5% $2,250,000
Subtotal $5,472,000 $13,000,000
Total $18,472,000
Cary Williams
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 96.6% $7,000,000
2016 $5,000,000 49.0% $2,450,000
2017 $6,000,000 21.7% $1,302,000
Subtotal $3,752,000 $7,000,000
Total $10,752,000

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.