Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Wide Receivers

Quarterbacks:

Running Backs:

Player Nominal Value ECV % Expected ECV/Year
Jeremy Maclin $55,000,000 $37,139,500 68% $7,427,900
Randall Cobb $40,000,000 $31,522,300 79% $7,880,575
Torrey Smith $40,000,000 $27,261,750 68% $5,452,350
Dwayne Harris $17,500,000 $12,377,350 71% $2,475,470
Andre Johnson $18,500,000 $11,492,000 62% $3,830,667
Eddie Royal $15,000,000 $11,215,000 75% $3,783,333
Dwayne Bowe $12,500,000 $10,504,900 84% $5,252,450
Stevie Johnson $10,500,000 $6,777,880 65% $2,259,293
Kenny Britt $9,150,000 $6,502,500 71% $3,251,250
Harry Douglas $11,250,000 $6,221,250 55% $2,073,750
Cecil Shorts $6,000,000 $4,275,000 71% $2,137,500
Brian Hartline $6,000,000 $4,137,000 69% $2,068,500
Ted Ginn $4,200,000 $3,064,000 73% $1,532,000
Jacoby Jones $5,500,000 $2,959,000 54% $1,479,500
WR Total: 69.9%
Global Total (122 Free Agents): 67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Percy Harvin:   $6,000,000 ($5,900,000 guaranteed)
 
Player First Likely Cut Year Dead Money Remaining
Jeremy Maclin 2018 (40%)* $4,800,000**
Randall Cobb 2018 (46%) $3,250,000
Torrey Smith 2018 (46%) $3,200,000
Dwayne Harris 2018 (42%) $1,600,000
Andre Johnson 2016 (38%) $2,500,000
Eddie Royal 2017 (24%) $0
Dwayne Bowe 2016 (41%) $4,600,000
Stevie Johnson 2017 (27%) $1,000,000
Kenny Britt 2016 (46%) $0
Harry Douglas 2016 (44%) $1,466,667
Cecil Shorts 2016 (43%) $500,000
Brian Hartline 2016 (38%) $750,000
Ted Ginn 2016 (35%) $850,000
Jacoby Jones 2016 (21%) $800,000
 

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.