Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Running Backs

PlayerNominal ValueECV% ExpectedECV/Year
DeMarco Murray$40,000,000$27,418,00069%$5,483,600
Mark Ingram$16,000,000$11,957,10075%$2,989,275
CJ Spiller$16,000,000$11,311,80071%$2,827,950
Shane Vereen$12,350,000$9,382,45076%$3,127,483
Frank Gore$12,000,000$8,636,50072%$2,878,833
Ryan Matthews$11,000,000$8,080,00073%$2,693,333
Jerome Felton$9,200,000$6,365,35069%$1,591,338
Justin Forsett$9,000,000$5,367,00060%$1,789,000
Roy Helu$4,100,000$2,985,40073%$1,492,700
DeAngelo William$4,000,000$2,134,06053%$1,067,030
RB Total:70.1%
Global Total (122 Free Agents):67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Reggie Bush:   $2,500,000 ($1,000,000 guaranteed)
Bilal Powell:   $2,000,000 ($750,000 guaranteed)
PlayerFirst Likely Cut YearDead Money Remaining
DeMarco Murray2018 (26%)*$2,000,000**
Mark Ingram2018 (40%)$900,000
CJ Spiller2018 (31%)$1,250,000
Shane Vereen2017 (47%)$1,666,667
Frank Gore2017 (14%)$0
Ryan Matthews2017 (36%)$1,000,000
Jerome Felton2017 (47%)$1,300,000
Justin Forsett2017 (27%)$700,000
Roy Helu2016 (48%)$0
DeAngelo Williams2016 (18%)$565,000

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.