Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Offensive Lineman


Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

PlayerNominal ValueECV% ExpectedECV/Year
Rodney Hudson$44,500,000$32,262,40072%$6,452,480
Mike Iupati$40,000,000$23,975,00060%$4,795,000
Bryan Bulaga$33,750,000$23,745,00070%$4,749,000
Orlando Franklin$35,500,000$23,140,25065%$4,628,050
Jeremy Parnell$32,000,000$21,091,50066%$4,218,300
Derek Newton$26,500,000$19,003,25072%$3,800,650
Clint Boling$26,000,000$17,286,40066%$3,457,280
King Dunlap$28,000,000$17,084,75061%$4,271,187
James Carpenter$19,100,000$12,914,80068%$3,228,700
Doug Free$15,000,000$8,846,00059%$2,948,667
Joe Reitz$8,000,000$4,806,75060%$1,602,250
Michael Oher$7,000,000$4,737,00068%$2,368,500
Paul Fanaika$6,150,000$4,015,80065%$1,338,600
Shelley Smith$4,250,000$2,689,00063%$1,344,500
Erik Pears$4,700,000$2,294,20049%$1,147,100
OL Total:65.9%
Global Total (122 Free Agents):67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Todd Herremans:   $2,250,000 ($1,000,000 guaranteed)
PlayerFirst Likely Cut YearDead Money Remaining
Rodney Hudson2019 (30%)*$0**
Mike Iupati2018 (31%)$2,400,000
Bryan Bulaga2018 (47%)$3,200,000
Orlando Franklin2018 (34%)$2,800,000
Jeremy Parnell2018 (38%)$0
Derek Newton2018 (45%)$1,500,000
Clint Boling2018 (42%)$1,000,000
King Dunlap2017 (40%)$3,250,000
James Carpenter2018 (37%)$875,000
Doug Free2016 (48%)$3,000,000
Joe Reitz2017 (21%)$0
Michael Oher2016 (35%)$1,250,000
Paul Fanaika2017 (27%)$583,333
Shelley Smith2016 (36%)$500,000
Erik Pears2016 (15%)$250,000

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.