Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Defensive Lineman

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs

Wide Receivers  |  Tight Ends

Offensive Lineman  |  Pass Rushers

Player Nominal Value ECV % Expected ECV/Year
Ndamukong Suh $114,360,000 $78,091,830 68% $13,015,305
Jared Odrick $42,500,000 $28,798,000 68% $5,759,600
Dan Williams $25,000,000 $19,437,150 78% $4,859,287
Stephen Paea $21,000,000 $15,142,450 72% $3,785612
Kendall Langford $17,200,000 $9,289,800 54% $2,322,450
Corey Peters $9,000,000 $6,687,000 74% $2,229,000
Vince Wilfork $9,000,000 $5,656,000 63% $2,828,000
Tyson Alualu $6,000,000 $5,142,500 86% $2,571,250
Randy Starks $6,500,000 $4,131,000 64% $2,065,500
Tom Johnson $7,000,000 $3,716,450 53% $1,238,817
Darnell Dockett $7,500,000 $3,679,500 49% $1,839,750
CJ Wilson $4,600,000 $3,090,750 67% $1,545,375
Vance Walker $4,000,000 $3,078,500 77% $1,539,250
Cory Redding $6,000,000 $3,047,500 51% $1,523,750
Chris Canty $4,650,000 $2,707,650 58% $1,353,825
Alan Branch $4,900,000 $2,580,400 53% $1,290,200
Dwan Edwards $4,000,000 $1,901,250 48% $950,625
DL Total: 66.9%
Global Total (122 Free Agents): 67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Nick Fairley:   $5,000,000 ($1,500,000 guaranteed)
Terrance Knighton:   $4,450,000 ($2,950,000 guaranteed)
Henry Melton:   $3,750,000 ($3,250,000 guaranteed)
Ahytba Rubin:   $2,600,000 ($1,000,000 guaranteed)
 
Player First Likely Cut Year Dead Money Remaining
Ndamukong Suh 2019 (34%)* $5,100,000**
Jared Odrick 2018 (46%) $0
Dan Williams 2018 (28%) $0
Stephen Paea 2018 (33%) $1,250,000
Kendall Langford 2017 (33%) $500,000
Corey Peters 2017 (37%) $666,667
Vince Wilfork 2016 (16%) $1,500,000
Tyson Alualu
Randy Starks 2016 (23%) $625,000
Tom Johnson 2016 (44%) $0
Darnell Dockett 2016 (11%) $0
CJ Wilson 2016 (35%) $0
Vance Walker 2016 (46%) $750,000
Cory Redding 2016 (12%) $1,000,000
Chris Canty 2016 (21%) $765,000
Alan Branch 2016 (26%) $350,000
Dwan Edwards 2016 (13%) $500,000
 

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.