Expected Contract Value Free Agency Summary: Defensive Lineman

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs

Wide Receivers  |  Tight Ends

Offensive Lineman  |  Pass Rushers

PlayerNominal ValueECV% ExpectedECV/Year
Ndamukong Suh$114,360,000$78,091,83068%$13,015,305
Jared Odrick$42,500,000$28,798,00068%$5,759,600
Dan Williams$25,000,000$19,437,15078%$4,859,287
Stephen Paea$21,000,000$15,142,45072%$3,785612
Kendall Langford$17,200,000$9,289,80054%$2,322,450
Corey Peters$9,000,000$6,687,00074%$2,229,000
Vince Wilfork$9,000,000$5,656,00063%$2,828,000
Tyson Alualu$6,000,000$5,142,50086%$2,571,250
Randy Starks$6,500,000$4,131,00064%$2,065,500
Tom Johnson$7,000,000$3,716,45053%$1,238,817
Darnell Dockett$7,500,000$3,679,50049%$1,839,750
CJ Wilson$4,600,000$3,090,75067%$1,545,375
Vance Walker$4,000,000$3,078,50077%$1,539,250
Cory Redding$6,000,000$3,047,50051%$1,523,750
Chris Canty$4,650,000$2,707,65058%$1,353,825
Alan Branch$4,900,000$2,580,40053%$1,290,200
Dwan Edwards$4,000,000$1,901,25048%$950,625
DL Total:66.9%
Global Total (122 Free Agents):67.5%
Notable One-Year Contracts:
Nick Fairley:   $5,000,000 ($1,500,000 guaranteed)
Terrance Knighton:   $4,450,000 ($2,950,000 guaranteed)
Henry Melton:   $3,750,000 ($3,250,000 guaranteed)
Ahytba Rubin:   $2,600,000 ($1,000,000 guaranteed)
PlayerFirst Likely Cut YearDead Money Remaining
Ndamukong Suh2019 (34%)*$5,100,000**
Jared Odrick2018 (46%)$0
Dan Williams2018 (28%)$0
Stephen Paea2018 (33%)$1,250,000
Kendall Langford2017 (33%)$500,000
Corey Peters2017 (37%)$666,667
Vince Wilfork2016 (16%)$1,500,000
Tyson Alualu
Randy Starks2016 (23%)$625,000
Tom Johnson2016 (44%)$0
Darnell Dockett2016 (11%)$0
CJ Wilson2016 (35%)$0
Vance Walker2016 (46%)$750,000
Cory Redding2016 (12%)$1,000,000
Chris Canty2016 (21%)$765,000
Alan Branch2016 (26%)$350,000
Dwan Edwards2016 (13%)$500,000

*Refers to the likelihood that the player will remain under contract in the given season.  This column displays the first season where the likelihood falls below 50%.

**Refers to the amount of dead money that the team will incur upon releasing the player in the season identified in the second column.

Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.