Expected Contract Value: Eli Manning

Earlier this week Jason gave his thoughts on Eli Manning’s new contract, and today I will share the Expected Contract Value numbers associated with the deal.

Manning’s Expected Contract Value is almost $57 million out of a deal that purportedly will pay him $101 million over that same five-year time frame ($84 million is the new money, which dictates the APY, which is factored into the ECV inputs). The ECV chart shown below identifies his Expected Outcomes for each season of the deal. As with all older players, ECV has determined that Manning is highly unlikely to play out the entirety of this contract.

Eli Manning
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 98.1% $36,500,000
2016 $18,000,000 63.8% $11,483,190
2017 $13,500,000 40.8% $5,504,661
2018 $16,000,000 14.5% $2,314,806  
2019 $17,000,000 7.0% $1,194,125  
Subtotal   $20,496,783 $36,500,000
Total   $56,996,783

While I have mentioned in the past that ECV penalizes quarterbacks for age more than it should, it is still fair to compare this contract to the ones signed by Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers, as they are subject to the same issue. As can be seen below, Manning’s ECV is slightly less than that of Rivers and Roethlisberger, despite the face that his new money APY is higher than that of Rivers and his fully guaranteed money is higher than that of Roethlisberger.

One reason for this is that Manning is a full year older than the other quarterbacks. If he was 33 at the time of signing, rather than 34, his Expected Contract Value would increase to $59.75 million. Otherwise, though, the difference in ECV is fairly negligible because the total size and structures of the three contracts are essentially the same (large signing bonus, only first year base salary guaranteed). Where the total size of a set of contracts is so similar, we would only expect a large ECV difference where one of the players has a distinguishing structure characteristic such as an option bonus or waterfall base salary guarantees.

Philip Rivers
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 91.7% $37,500,000
2016 $16,500,000 63.9% $10,543,500
2017 $14,000,000 39.0% $5,460,000
2018 $15,000,000 16.6% $2,490,000
2019 $16,000,000 9.0% $1,440,000
Subtotal   $19,933,500 $37,500,000
Total   $57,433,500
Ben Roethlisberger
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2015 $4,250,000 97.3% $4,135,250 $31,000,000
2016 $17,750,000 70.0% $12,425,000
2017 $12,000,000 49.9% $5,988,000
2018 $17,000,000 17.3% $2,941,000
2019 $17,000,000 9.1% $1,547,000
Subtotal   $27,036,250 $31,000,000
Total   $58,036,250

Updating my list of highest quarterback Expected Contract Values, Manning comes in toward the bottom of the list just behind Rivers but ahead of Ryan Tannehill. His ECV does not receive any inflation adjustment, as all of these numbers have been translated to 2015 equivalencies. Just as frame of reference, if Manning signed this contract at the age of 26, as Wilson and Newton were when they signed their contracts this year, his Expected Contract Value would have been $80.1 million. Alas, he is instead 34, and he is therefore unlikely to see much more than half of the $101 million he could potentially earn.

Player Expected Contract Value Inflation Adjusted ECV
Newton $89,631,502 $89,631,502
Rodgers $81,831,100 $88,980,895
Flacco $80,829,399 $87,328,320
Ryan $71,796,000 $77,650,750
Kaepernick $68,984,666 $70,060,492
Wilson $69,697,894 $69,697,894
Brees $59,474,000 $68,899,849
Romo $59,756,000 $65,168,000
Cutler $63,230,000 $64,962,500
Stafford $59,367,000 $64,718,500
Dalton $59,965,097 $61,357,303
Roethlisberger $58,036,250 $58,036,250
Rivers $57,433,500 $57,433,500
Manning $56,996,783 $56,996,783
Tannehill $55,558,237 $55,558,237
Vick $46,817,000 $54,610,963
Smith $47,221,900 $48,684,900
Brady $37,857,000 $43,126,000
Manning $37,431,000 $42,774,760

Introduction Part 1:  Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”

Introduction Part 2:  Inputs & Outputs

Introduction Part 3:  Contract Comparison

Introduction Part 4:  Salary Cap Budgeting

Introduction Part 5:  Frequently Asked Questions

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.

Nicholas Barton is a junior at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.