Expected Contract Value Calculations

Olivier Vernon, Malik Jackson, Brock Osweiler, Janoris Jenkins, Kelechi Osemele, Brandon Brooks, Marvin Jones, Alex Mack, Bruce Irvin, Rodney McLeod, Coby Fleener, Jeff Allen, Dwayne Allen, George Iloka, Danny Trevathan, Joseph Barksdale, Alex Boone, Chase Daniel, Ben Jones, Isa Abdul-Quddus, Ahtyba Rubin, and Richie Incognito.  Many more are on the way.

Olivier Vernon
Stated Value: $85,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $250,000 99.8% $249,442 $28,750,000
2017 $250,000 98.5% $246,328 $11,250,000
2018 $13,000,000 90.7% $11,785,963
2019 $13,500,000 74.4% $11,526,850
2020 $15,500,000 51.1% $7,917,693
Subtotal $31,726,276 $40,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $71,726,276 (84%)
 
Malik Jackson
Stated Value: $85,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.7% $18,000,000
2017 97.6% $13,500,000
2018 $13,500,000 82.7% $11,997,674
2019 $13,000,000 70.3% $9,143,042
2020 $13,750,000 49.0% $6,735,551
2021 $13,750,000 33.2% $4,560,677  
Subtotal $32,436,945 $31,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $63,936,945 (74%)
Brock Osweiler
Stated Value: $72,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.6% $21,000,000
2017 96.5% $16,000,000
2018 $18,000,000 72.1% $12,977,718
2019 $17,000,000 55.6% $9,455,547
Subtotal $22,433,265 $37,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $59,433,265 (83%)
Janoris Jenkins
Stated Value: $62,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $100,000 99.6% $99,600 $15,900,000
2017 $100,000 95.9% $95,900 $12,900,000
2018 $11,000,000 72.9% $8,023,170
2019 $10,250,000 49.8% $5,101,439
2020 $12,250,000 27.2% $3,336,560
Subtotal $16,656,714 $28,800,000
Expected Contract Value: $45,456,714 (73%)
Kelechi Osemele
Stated Value: $58,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $500,000 99.1% $495,649 $12,700,000
2017 $500,000 93.3% $466,643 $12,700,000
2018 $10,200,000 70.4% $7,178,796
2019 $10,200,000 53.5% $5,460,076
2020 $11,700,000 32.2% $3,766,495
Subtotal $17,367,659 $25,400,000
Expected Contract Value: $42,767,659 (73%)
Brandon Brooks
Stated Value: $40,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.6% $12,000,000
2017 97.7% $5,000,000
2018 $8,500,000 78.9% $6,707,921
2019 $7,500,000 60.0% $4,501,247
2020 $7,000,000 35.7% $2,501,506
Subtotal $13,710,673 $17,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $30,710,673 (77%)
Marvin Jones
Stated Value: $40,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 98.7% $13,000,000
2017 $7,000,000 85.0% $5,950,269
2018 $7,000,000 71.3% $4,994,258
2019 $6,500,000 55.3% $3,597,369
2020 $6,500,000 35.3% $2,291,485
Subtotal $16,833,381 $13,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $29,833,381 (75%)
Alex Mack
Stated Value: $45,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.0% $13,250,000
2017 93.4% $6,750,000
2018 $8,500,000 60.0% $5,099,035
2019 $8,500,000 34.5% $2,930,237
2020 $8,000,000 16.5% $1,322,227
Subtotal $9,351,500 $20,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $29,351,500 (65%)
Bruce Irvin
Stated Value: $37,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $250,000 96.3% $240,715 $12,250,000
2017 $4,750,000 81.9% $3,891,625 $2,250,000
2018 $8,250,000 55.3% $4,561,594
2019 $9,250,000 32.2% $2,977,785
Subtotal $11,671,718 $14,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $26,171,718 (71%)
Rodney McLeod
Stated Value: $35,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.6% $9,000,000
2017 97.7% $4,000,000
2018 $6,000,000 82.0% $4,918,061
2019 $7,500,000 53.8% $4,036,042
2020 $8,500,000 24.8% $2,106,391
Subtotal $11,060,495 $13,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $ 24,060,495 (69%)
Coby Fleener
Stated Value: $36,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 99.7% $8,800,000
2017 $100,000 96.7% $86,672 $5,800,000
2018 $6,400,000 68.0% $4,350,407
2019 $7,400,000 40.3% $2,984,074
2020 $7,500,000 21.6% $1,623,036
Subtotal $9,054,189 $14,600,000
Expected Contract Value: $23,654,189 (66%)
Jeff Allen
Stated Value: $28,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $500,000 99.1% $495,581 $9,500,000
2017 $2,750,000 94.2% $2,591,270 $2,500,000
2018 $6,250,000 75.3% $4,705,168
2019 $6,500,000 50.6% $3,285,789
Subtotal $11,077,809 $12,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $23,077,809 (82%)
Dwayne Allen
Stated Value: $29,400,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $500,000 96.7% $483,253 $11,500,000
2017 $5,000,000 79.7% $3,985,008
2018 $5,000,000 65.1% $3,253,746
2019 $7,400,000 31.5% $2,332,789
Subtotal $10,054,796 $11,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $21,554,796 (73%)
George Iloka
Stated Value: $30,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $2,600,000 97.2% $2,527,640 $5,000,000
2017 $4,800,000 89.4% $4,290,645
2018 $5,600,000 74.2% $4,155,919
2019 $6,000,000 51.9% $3,111,687
2020 $6,000,000 30.7% $1,839,078
Subtotal $15,924,969 $5,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $20,924,969 (70%)
Danny Trevathan
Stated Value: $24,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $100,000 99.2% $99,204 $10,000,000
2017 $100,000 96.6% $96,556 $2,000,000
2018 $5,900,000 74.2% $4,378,444
2019 $6,400,000 46.9% $3,000,093
Subtotal $7,574,297 $12,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $19,574,297 (80%)
Joseph Barksdale
Stated Value: $22,200,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $50,000 99.0% $49,488 $7,500,000
2017 $1,550,000 93.1% $1,443,103 $3,000,000
2018 $4,800,000 71.1% $3,412,512
2019 $5,300,000 44.0% $2,330,122
Subtotal $7,235,226 $10,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $17,735,226 (80%)
Alex Boone
Stated Value: $26,800,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $100,000 96.3% $96,300 $6,600,000
2017 $3,300,000 76.8% $2,736,048 $3,400,000
2018 $6,700,000 43.5% $2,912,532
2019 $6,700,000 25.3% $1,694,224
Subtotal $7,239,129 $10,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $17,239,129 (64%)
Chase Daniel
Stated Value: $21,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 98.6% $7,000,000
2017 $2,000,000 85.7% $1,713,994 $5,000,000
2018 $7,000,000 44.3% $3,102,633
Subtotal $4,816,627 $12,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $16,816,627 (80%)
Ben Jones
Stated Value: $17,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $500,000 99.2% $495,926 $5,000,000
2017 $500,000 93.8% $468,990 $2,500,000
2018 $4,500,000 65.3% $2,936,999
2019 $4,500,000 39.1% $1,759,973
Subtotal $5,661,887 $7,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $13,161,887 (75%)
Isa Abdul-Quddus
Stated Value: $12,750,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $25,000 97.1% $24,265 $4,225,000
2017 $4,250,000 69.2% $2,941,606
2018 $4,250,000 37.4% $1,591,209
Subtotal $4,557,080 $4,225,000
Expected Contract Value: $8,782,080 (69%)
Ahtyba Ruin
Stated Value: $12,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $500,000 95.0% $474,772 $5,500,000
2017 $2,200,000 71.9% $1,582,676
2018 $3,800,000 26.5% $1,007,010
Subtotal $3,064,458 $5,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $8,564,458 (71%)
Richie Incognito
Stated Value: $
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Adjustment
2016 $100,000 87.4% $87,400 $5,450,000
2017 $3,775,000 46.8% $1,766,952
2018 $6,425,000 12.3% $788,083
Subtotal $2,642,388 $5,450,000
Expected Contract Value: $ 8,092,388 (51%)
 

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nick Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate M&A associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail atbryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nick Barton is  a junior at the McDonough School Business at  Georgetown University.  He is majoring in Finance and Operations and Information Management. Nick currently interns with an NFL team . His prior work experience includes interning with CollegeSplits and Dynamic Sports Solutions, and working as a research assistant for the Center of Applied Research of the Apostolate.