Expected Contract Value Calculations (3/16/2016)

Beginning the week of March 21st I will post positional reports based on Expected Contract Value with commentary and a depictions of the information that is easier to process, but for reference purposes I will continue to post the calculations on a rolling basis as they become available.

Lamar Miller, Eric Weddle, C.J. Anderson, Derrick Shelby, Casey Hayward, Derrick Johnson, Robert Ayers, Coty Sensabaugh, Chris Hogan, Jerrell Freeman, Akiam Hicks, Jon Ryan, Al Woods, and Eugene Sims.

Lamar Miller
Stated Value: $26,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 99.4% $8,500,000
2017 95.5% $5,500,000
2018 $5,750,000 73.1% $4,203,649
2019 $6,250,000 33.3% $2,080,723
Subtotal $6,284,372 $14,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $20,284,372 (78%)
Eric Weddle
Stated Value: $26,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 95.5% $9,000,000
2017 $4,000,000 72.5% $2,900,189
2018 $6,500,000 31.1% $2,024,213
2019 $6,250,000 11.6% $754,978
Subtotal $5,679,380 $9,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $14,679,380 (56%)
C.J. Anderson
Stated Value: $18,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 $100,000 99.2% $99,246 $5,900,000
2017 $3,000,000 94.7% $2,840,036
2018 $4,500,000 73.3% $3,297,942
2019 $4,500,000 32.9% $1,481,306  
Subtotal $7,718,531 $5,900,000
Expected Contract Value: $13,618,531
Derrick Shelby
Stated Value: $18,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 98.8% $6,000,000
2017 $3,000,000 91.4% $2,740,921
2018 $4,500,000 68.3% $3,071,256
2019 $4,500,000 40.0% $1,798,848
Subtotal $7,611,024 $6,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $13,611,024 (76%)
Casey Hayward
Stated Value: $15,300,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 96.8% $6,800,000
2017 $4,250,000 73.0% $3,101,858
2018 $4,250,000 42.9% $1,824,400
Subtotal $4,926,258 $6,800,000
Expected Contract Value: $11,726,258 (77%)
Derrick Johnson
Stated Value: $21,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 $250,000 88.9% $222,185 $6,750,000
2017 $4,000,000 43.6% $1,742,661 $2,000,000
2018 $8,000,000 9.3% $742,948
Subtotal $2,707,794 $8,750,000
Expected Contract Value: $11,457,794 (55%)
Robert Ayers
Stated Value: $19,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 85.9% $7,500,000
2017 $6,000,000 41.5% $2,490,331
2018 $6,000,000 21.0% $1,260,633
Subtotal $3,750,963 $7,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $11,250,963 (%)
Coty Sensabaugh
Stated Value: $14,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 96.3% $4,500,000
2017 $4,000,000 68.5% $2,740,487 $1,000,000
2018 $5,000,000 36.3% $1,816,857
Subtotal $4,557,344 $5,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $10,057,344
Chris Hogan
Stated Value: $12,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 $500,000 96.6% $483,077 $5,000,000
2017 $500,000 82.4% $412,061 $2,500,000
2018 $4,000,000 37.5% $1,498,663
Subtotal $2,393,801 $7,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $9,893,801 (82%)
Jerrell Freeman
Stated Value: $12,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 94.1% $5,000,000
2017 $2,500,000 63.0% $1,573,952 $1,000,000
2018 $3,500,000 28.4% $993,600
Subtotal $2,567,552 $6,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $8,567,552 (71%)
Akiem Hicks
Stated Value: $10,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 96.5% $5,000,000
2017 $5,000,000 64.8% $3,238,013
Subtotal $3,238,013 $5,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $8,238,013 (82%)
Jon Ryan
Stated Value: $10,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 97.4% $3,400,000
2017 $1,000,000 91.4% $914,307
2018 $2,600,000 66.3% $1,723,697
2019 $3,000,000 45.6% $1,367,000  
Subtotal $4,005,004 $3,400,000
Expected Contract Value: $7,405,004 (74%)
Al Woods
Stated Value: $10,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 $250,000 95.0% $237,379 $3,750,000
2017 $3,000,000 66.6% $1,996,666
2018 $3,500,000 32.2% $1,126,729
Subtotal $3,360,775 $3,750,000
Expected Contract Value: $7,110,775 (68%)
Eugene Sims
Stated Value: $10,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 89.5% $3,000,000
2017 $3,250,000 48.2% $1,567,755
2018 $3,750,000 22.4% $840,585
Subtotal $2,408,340 $3,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $5,408,340 (54%)
 

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nick Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate M&A associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail atbryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nick Barton is  a junior at the McDonough School Business at  Georgetown University.  He is majoring in Finance and Operations and Information Management. Nick currently interns with an NFL team . His prior work experience includes interning with CollegeSplits and Dynamic Sports Solutions, and working as a research assistant for the Center of Applied Research of the Apostolate.