Expected Contract Value Calculations (3/13/2016)

Beginning the week of March 21st I will post positional reports based on Expected Contract Value with commentary and a depictions of the information that is easier to process, but for reference purposes I will continue to post the calculations on a rolling basis as they become available.

Mohamed Sanu, Sean Smith, J.R. Sweezy, Doug Martin, Tamba Hali, William Hayes, Cedric Thornton, Donald Stephenson, Jermaine Kearse, Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, Vincent Rey, Tracy Porter, and Antonio Gates.

Mohamed Sanu
Stated Value: $32,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 99.8% $8,000,000
2017 96.9% $6,000,000
2018 $6,000,000 65.9% $3,951,449
2019 $6,000,000 45.1% $2,706,493
2020 $6,500,000 23.1% $1,500,603
Subtotal $8,158,545 $14,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $22,158,545 (68%)
Sean Smith
Stated Value: $38,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 $250,000 97.5% $243,770 $10,750,000
2017 $5,250,000 78.3% $4,112,076 $4,250,000
2018 $8,500,000 44.2% $3,760,157
2019 $9,000,000 20.6% $1,851,578
Subtotal $9,967,580 $15,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $24,967,580 (66%)
J.R. Sweezy
Stated Value: $32,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 98.0% $9,500,000
2017 $2,500,000 90.9% $2,271,688 $2,500,000
2018 $6,500,000 70.6% $4,588,142
2019 $5,750,000 56.9% $3,273,929
2020 $5,750,000 37.0% $2,129,589
Subtotal $12,263,349 $12,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $24,263,349 (75%)
Doug Martin
Stated Value: $35,750,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 98.8% $8,000,000
2017 93.3% $7,000,000
2018 $6,750,000 70.3% $4,748,623
2019 $7,000,000 37.7% $2,637,863
2020 $7,000,000 13.5% $947,093
Subtotal $8,333,579 $15,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $23,333,579 (65%)
Tamba Hali
Stated Value: $21,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 $1,250,000 95.0% $1,187,993 $5,750,000
2017 $1,250,000 61.3% $766,733 $5,750,000
2018 $7,000,000 11.6% $813,054
Subtotal $2,767,780 $11,500,000
Expected Contract Value: $14,267,780 (68%)
William Hayes
Stated Value: $17,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 92.1% $7,000,000
2017 $2,500,000 57.0% $1,425,283 $3,000,000
2018 $5,000,000 22.4% $1,121,346
Subtotal $2,546,629 $10,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $12,546,629 (72%)
Cedric Thornton
Stated Value: $17,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 98.4% $6,000,000
2017 $3,000,000 88.2% $2,646,226
2018 $4,000,000 62.8% $2,510,595
2019 $4,000,000 33.8% $1,353,495
Subtotal $6,510,316 $6,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $12,510,316 (74%)
Donald Stephenson
Stated Value: $14,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 97.5% $6,000,000
2017 $4,000,000 80.5% $3,218,709
2018 $4,000,000 53.8% $2,151,794
Subtotal $5,370,503 $6,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $11,370,503 (81%)
Jermaine Kearse
Stated Value: $13,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 98.5% $6,300,000
2017 $2,200,000 86.4% $1,901,736
2018 $5,000,000 31.8% $1,589,422
Subtotal $3,491,258 $6,300,000
Expected Contract Value: $9,791,158 (73%)
Matt Forte
Stated Value: $12,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 94.5% $5,000,000
2017 57.4% $4,000,000
2018 $3,000,000 10.5% $316,213
Subtotal $316,213 $9,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $9,316,213 (78%)
Bilal Powell
Stated Value: $11,250,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 97.9% $3,500,000
2017 $1,250,000 78.5% $981,610 $2,500,000
2018 $4,000,000 24.5% $980,125
Subtotal $1,961,736 $6,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $7,961,736 (71%)
Vincent Rey
Stated Value: $10,500,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 $1,500,000 87.4% $1,311,620 $3,000,000
2017 $3,250,000 58.1% $1,888,171
2018 $2,750,000 38.4% $1,055,143
Subtotal $4,254,934 $3,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $7,254,934 (69%)
Tracy Porter
Stated Value: $12,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 $250,000 89.8% $224,549 $4,250,000
2017 $3,750,000 45.5% $1,706,669
2018 $3,750,000 20.8% $779,816
Subtotal $2,711,034 $4,250,000
Expected Contract Value: $6,961,034 (58%)
Antonio Gates
Stated Value: $11,000,000
Year Salary Expected Outcome Expected Value Guaranteed
2016 59.4% $6,000,000
2017 $5,000,000 8.7% $436,992
Subtotal $432,992 $6,000,000
Expected Contract Value: $6,436,992 (59%)
 

Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nick Barton.

Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate M&A associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm.  Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail atbryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @NFLCapAnalytics.

Nick Barton is  a junior at the McDonough School Business at  Georgetown University.  He is majoring in Finance and Operations and Information Management. Nick currently interns with an NFL team . His prior work experience includes interning with CollegeSplits and Dynamic Sports Solutions, and working as a research assistant for the Center of Applied Research of the Apostolate.