I was out of the country for a few weeks, and in that time a number of noteworthy players signed large contract extensions. Today I will provide the Expected Contract Values for those contracts, as well as some notes on the contract characteristics.
Because of age and prior contract status, the most relevant comparison for Philip Rivers is Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger’s ECV at the time of signing was $58,036,250, which puts him a little bit ahead of Rivers, despite Rivers having more fully guaranteed salary at the time of signing. This is mostly attributable to Roethlisberger receiving a larger signing bonus, and thereby more dead money protection after the first year of the contract.
| Philip Rivers |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 91.7% | — | $37,500,000 |
| 2016 | $16,500,000 | 63.9% | $10,543,500 | — |
| 2017 | $14,000,000 | 39.0% | $5,460,000 | — |
| 2018 | $15,000,000 | 16.6% | $2,490,000 | — |
| 2019 | $16,000,000 | 9.0% | $1,440,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $19,933,500 | $37,500,000 |
| Total | | $57,433,500 |
The most relevant comparisons for Russell Wilson are probably Cam Newton and Ryan Tannehill, two other young quarterbacks who signed large extensions this offseason. Not surprisingly, Wilson’s Expected Contract Value surpasses Tannehill’s ($55.6 million) by a wide margin, despite Tannehill having a 6th year on his contract. On the other hand, Newton’s ECV ($89.6 million) far surpasses Wilson’s. Newton’s fully guaranteed 2016 option bonus accounts for much of the difference, and his 6th year salary adds another $5.1 million worth of ECV. A major factor in the differing outcomes is due to the weaker position that Wilson started in. Newton was set to receive a large 2015 salary based on the 5th year option of his rookie contract, whereas Wilson was due to earn very little in the final season of this rookie contract.
Wilson may ultimately come out on top though, as he is able to reach free agency (or force an extension) a year earlier than Newton. Based on the age of the two quarterbacks and the likely increase in the salary cap, Wilson is probably in a better position in 2020 as a free agent than Newton is with a non-guaranteed $19.1 million base salary.
| Russell Wilson |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.9% | — | $31,700,000 |
| 2016 | $12,342,000 | 95.7% | $11,811,294 | — |
| 2017 | $12,600,000 | 85.1% | $10,722,600 | — |
| 2018 | $15,500,000 | 58.2% | $9,021,000 | |
| 2019 | $17,000,000 | 37.9% | $6,443,000 | |
| Subtotal | | $37,997,894 | $31,700,000 |
| Total | | $69,697,894 |
The stated value of Hilton’s deal ($65 million) is just a little bit lower than the stated values of the contracts signed by Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas ($70 million), but his Expected Contract Value falls well short ($55.3 million and $50.5 million, respectively). As with Wilson and Newton, this shows the heightened leverage that a team has when the player’s alternative is to play out the final season of his contract for a very low salary. Hilton would have taken a much larger risk by playing this season under his rookie deal than Bryant or Thomas would have taken by playing under the franchise tag, and as a result, the Colts were able to sign him to a deal that carries much less risk for the team.
However, the difference in Expected Contract Value is not as large as one might expect based on the difference in fully guaranteed money ($11 million for Hilton compared to $32 million for Bryant and $35 million for Thomas). This is because fully guaranteed base salary in the first and second years of a contract, as is the case in the Brant and Thomas contracts, is generally overrated. The player is very likely to remain under contract in the second year of a deal, so the added Expected Contract Value is not very substantial. If the Colts guaranteed Hilton’s 2016 salary – thereby almost doubling his fully guaranteed money to $20 million – his ECV would have increased by less than 600K.
| TY Hilton |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.9% | — | $11,000,000 |
| 2016 | $9,000,000 | 93.7% | $8,433,000 | — |
| 2017 | $8,000,000 | 86.1% | $6,888,000 | — |
| 2018 | $11,000,000 | 65.4% | $7,194,000 | |
| 2019 | $13,000,000 | 51.4% | $6,682,000 | |
| 2020 | $14,542,000 | 27.2% | $3,955,424 | |
| Subtotal | | $33,152,424 | $11,000,000 |
| Total | | $44,152,424 |
Notice the difference in Expected Outcomes between David and Wagner in the fourth and fifth seasons of their respective deals. David beats Wagner by a wide margin (72% to 53% and 50% to 36%) despite having no dead money protection. This shows the power of adding additional seasons onto the end of a contract; the Bucs must account for the potential for surplus value in the sixth year of the contract when making decisions regarding the fourth and fifth seasons. Wagner may be better off by getting to free agency a year earlier, but David’s contract is more likely to complete five seasons due to the optionality benefit that the Bucs have built into the deal.
| Lavonte David |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.7% | — | $5,863,418 |
| 2016 | $5,000,000 | 96.4% | $4,820,000 | $5,000,000 |
| 2017 | $6,000,000 | 88.4% | $5,304,000 | — |
| 2018 | $8,750,000 | 71.7% | $6,273,750 | |
| 2019 | $9,750,000 | 49.9% | $4,865,250 | |
| 2020 | $10,750,000 | 28.1% | $3,020,750 | |
| Subtotal | | $24,283,750 | $10,863,418 |
| Total | | $35,147,168 |
| Bobby Wagner |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.7% | — | $8,977,427 |
| 2016 | $7,500,000 | 95.1% | $7,132,500 | — |
| 2017 | $5,000,000 | 88.8% | $4,440,000 | — |
| 2018 | $11,000,000 | 53.0% | $5,830,000 | — |
| 2019 | $11,500,000 | 36.2% | $4,163,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $21,565,500 | $8,977,427 |
| Total | | $30,542,927 |
| DeAndre Levy |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | — | 99.7% | — | $13,000,000 |
| 2016 | $5,250,000 | 92.3% | $4,845,750 | — |
| 2017 | $5,990,000 | 73.3% | $4,390,670 | — |
| 2018 | $6,250,000 | 44.4% | $2,775,000 | |
| 2019 | $6,750,000 | 26.2% | $1,768,500 | |
| Subtotal | | $13,779,920 | $13,000,000 |
| Total | | $26,779,920 |
| Ryan Kerrigan |
| Year | Salary | Expected Outcome | Expected Value | Adjustment |
| 2015 | $250,000 | 99.9% | $249,750 | $18,788,000 |
| 2016 | $250,000 | 93.6% | $234,000 | $5,000,000 |
| 2017 | $8,500,000 | 82.5% | $7,012,500 | — |
| 2018 | $9,250,000 | 60.0% | $5,550,000 | — |
| 2019 | $10,750,000 | 41.6% | $4,472,000 | — |
| 2020 | $11,750,000 | 19.6% | $2,303,000 | — |
| Subtotal | | $19,821,250 | $23,788,000 |
| Total | | $43,609,250 |
Introduction Part 1: Justification, Theory, & “Contract Analytics”
Introduction Part 2: Inputs & Outputs
Introduction Part 3: Contract Comparison
Introduction Part 4: Salary Cap Budgeting
Introduction Part 5: Frequently Asked Questions
Expected Contract Value was created by Bryce Johnston and Nicholas Barton.
Bryce Johnston earned his Juris Doctor, magna cum laude, from Georgetown University Law Center in May 2014, and currently works as a corporate associate in the New York City office of an AmLaw 50 law firm. Before becoming a contributor to overthecap.com, Bryce operated eaglescap.com for 10 NFL offseasons, appearing multiple times on 610 WIP Sports Radio in Philadelphia as an NFL salary cap expert. Bryce can be contacted via e-mail at bryce.l.johnston@gmail.com or via Twitter @eaglessalarycap.
Nicholas Barton is a sophomore at Georgetown University. He intends on double majoring in Operations and Information Management and Finance as well as pursuing a minor in Economics. Currently one of the leaders of the Georgetown Sports Analysis, Business, and Research Group, Nick consults for Dynamic Sports Solutions, an innovative sports start-up that uses mathematical and computational methods to evaluate players. He also writes for the Hoya, Georgetown’s school newspaper, and his own blog, Life of a Football Fan. Nick can be contacted via e-mail at njb50@georgetown.edu.